PDF Summary:The Fourth Turning Is Here, by Neil Howe

The Fourth Turning Is Here by Neil Howe explores the recurring cycles that shape American history. According to Howe, societies experience a repetitive pattern of generations, each with distinct values and experiences that influence the cycle's trajectory.

This prophetic analysis argues that the United States is currently in the throes of the "Millennial Crisis," a period marked by economic disorder, political polarization, and international conflict. Howe warns that this turmoil could precipitate profound societal shifts reminiscent of previous Fourth Turnings, like the American Revolution and the World Wars. As the cycles align globally, Howe ponders what lies ahead for America's role on the world stage.

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Communities preparing for challenging periods often exhibit behaviors that are either excessively protective or neglectful of the requirements of young people.

Howe suggests that the manner in which generations care for their young oscillates between periods of overprotection and disregard over the span of a saeculum. During times of increasing chaos, the safety and prosperity of their children emerge as the foremost priority for families, often surpassing all other concerns. The Fourth Turning typically sees the younger generation facing tighter controls, more oversight from those responsible for their care, and a narrowing of their social engagement opportunities. In periods characterized by peace and affluence, particularly when the early stages prevail, the parenting style often leans towards permissiveness and liberalism, allowing the youth more freedom and imposing fewer strict guidelines on their behavior. Our intrinsic quest for equilibrium and the preservation of social frameworks emphasizes the consistent repetition of historical cycles.

The immeasurable impact on societal transformation and public policy stems from the changing generational demographics and the repetitive patterns of archetypal roles.

Neil Howe suggests that historical patterns tend to repeat themselves in cycles, which are significantly shaped by the succession of various generational groups. As leadership transitions from the older generation, society's focus shifts, its frameworks are reshaped, and its administration adapts to reflect the unique viewpoints and experiences of the emerging group of decision-makers and community participants. Historical events should be viewed not as standalone incidents but as vibrant interactions within repeating cycles.

Leaders from each emerging generation often confront the task of avoiding the errors committed by those who came before them, and it's common for people raised in liberal settings to shift towards conservative beliefs as they grow older.

Societal transformation is propelled by the distinct interplay of generational traits and the cycles of change. A vanguard often arises, spearheaded by those who were born amidst a specific cultural or ideological wave. Parents with progressive views often pass on to their offspring a set of values that look to the future, yet it's common for these offspring to mature and adopt more conservative values, frequently driven by an urge to reject what they perceive as their parents' generation's excesses or failings. New leaders, in their quest to correct the errors of their predecessors, often encounter resistance from individuals who are younger and may hold a sense of longing for the past errors being addressed.

Each generation interprets significant public events through the lens of their distinct generational position and the common experiences associated with their stage in life.

The viewpoints of different generations on history and public policy are influenced by the collective experiences and notable events they have lived through. Howe explains how major occurrences such as conflicts or financial crises influence the shared recollections and willingness to take risks among people, thereby shaping their opinions on governance and cementing the distinctiveness of age cohorts. Consequently, a single Crisis can elicit diverse responses from various age demographics, influencing their engagement in civic activities and determining the primary issues of the nation.

Societal priorities periodically shift from emphasizing personal interests to focusing on communal well-being, thus creating enduring patterns.

Howe proposes that societal values undergo a regular swing, alternating their emphasis from individual prosperity to the communal welfare of society. Society alternates between prioritizing individual freedoms and self-expression, and underscoring the significance of collective goals, societal equilibrium, and the well-being of the community as a whole. He suggests that societies inherently function on a cyclical pattern that balances personal fulfillment with the sustained well-being of the collective. He also argues that the intrinsic characteristics of contemporary progress, defined by an unrelenting quest for novelty, are what inherently drive these periodic cycles. Every new generation's attempt to distinguish itself from what it sees as the previous generation's overindulgences inevitably sparks a counterreaction, resulting in a prolonged change in societal priorities and values.

Context

• The saeculum is a concept that defines the length of a long human life, typically around 80-100 years. It is used to describe the cyclical nature of historical time, divided into four turnings that span roughly 20-25 years each. Generational archetypes are linked to these turnings, with each archetype playing a distinct role in shaping societal trends and behaviors across these cycles. The saeculum theory helps explain how generational dynamics influence the patterns of history and societal change over time.
• The Prophet archetype typically starts as an idealistic crusader for change, evolving into a wise elder. The Nomad archetype, born in times of upheaval, becomes a pragmatic problem-solver. The Hero archetype, raised in fragmented times, emerges as a protector and stabilizer. The Artist archetype, shaped by crisis, tends towards empathy and mediation.
• Generational archetypes, such as Prophets, Nomads, Heroes, and Artists, interact in distinct ways as they progress through societal cycles. These archetypes often come into conflict or cooperation based on their unique values, behaviors, and roles within society. Understanding these interactions is crucial for comprehending how different generations influence and shape societal changes over time. The relationships between these archetypes, separated by generational spans, play a significant role in driving historical dynamics and societal transformations.
• Generational traits influencing public policy and societal transformation means that the values, beliefs, and experiences unique to each generation can impact how policies are shaped and how society evolves over time. As different generations come into power and influence, their perspectives and priorities can lead to shifts in governance and societal norms. Understanding these generational dynamics is crucial for comprehending how public policies are developed and how societies change across different eras.
• The concept of historical events repeating in cycles influenced by generational groups is based on the idea that different generations experience and react to societal shifts in predictable patterns. Each generation's unique experiences and values shape how they contribute to and navigate through historical cycles, leading to recurring themes and behaviors across time. This theory suggests that as generations age and pass on their values to the next cohort, similar patterns of societal change and response emerge, creating a cyclical nature to history. By understanding how generational archetypes influence and are influenced by historical events, we can gain insights into the repetitive patterns that shape societies over time.
• Societal values oscillate between prioritizing individual prosperity, focusing on personal success and freedoms, and emphasizing communal well-being, highlighting the importance of collective goals and societal harmony. This shift reflects a cyclical pattern where societies alternate between valuing personal fulfillment and the well-being of the community as a whole. The balance between individual and communal priorities shapes societal dynamics and influences how different generations perceive and prioritize societal needs. This alternating emphasis on individual and collective welfare is a recurring theme in societal evolution, driven by generational shifts and historical contexts.

The current period is characterized by significant challenges that could deeply affect the structure of American society, particularly those faced by the generation of Millennials.

Neil Howe posits that the beginning of the period he terms the Millennial Crisis aligns with the global economic downturn that commenced in 2008. He argues that the prevailing mood is characterized by a growing despair, fueled by an inert economy and the resurgence of fierce rivalry among the world's major powers, alongside deepening political divides. In these challenging periods, unity among United States citizens is crucial to tackle and resolve critical matters shaping the nation's future trajectory.

The Millennial Crisis signified the onset of rejuvenation, encompassing the early phases and precipitating incidents.

The author identifies the key events that have shaped the ongoing narrative of the Millennial Crisis. These encompass a predictive harbinger, an initiating event, and a politically divisive initial renewal stage.

The palpable feeling of an approaching crisis was underscored by the conflict associated with terrorism following the events of September 11th.

Neil Howe links the onset of the Millennial Crisis to the September 11th attacks and the subsequent military engagements in Afghanistan and Iraq from 2001 to 2003. The event briefly united a disengaged public by fostering a common goal that momentarily instilled a sense of communal responsibility in the younger generation. The awareness that was common among English-speaking countries was, nonetheless, fleeting. The feeling that the nation was on a downward trajectory intensified after withdrawing from these engagements, which also heightened a move towards a more introspective societal attitude.

The economic downturn that began in 2008 signaled the start of the Crisis Era.

Neil Howe identifies the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, often considered unique in its impact across generations, as the catalyst for the current Fourth Turning, referred to as the Millennial Crisis. The economic repercussions have led to an extended phase characterized by social unrest, a decline in living standards, and deep-seated doubt among citizens, evoking memories of the intense economic hardships experienced during the Great Depression. The considerable response in policy, though not fully adequate in terms of fiscal and financial measures, has laid the groundwork for a future characterized by heightened political discord and unpredictable governance.

The electoral results from the years 2018, 2020, and 2022 intensified the divisions within the political arena.

Howe points out that the early stage of rejuvenation in the Millennial Crisis was characterized by a growing divide within the nation, forming two distinct political camps, as evidenced by the sequence of presidential and midterm elections between 2016 and 2022. The rise in populist feelings, particularly underscored by the ascent of Trump, an unconventional political figure, to the presidency, has deepened partisan divisions and accelerated the process commonly known as "The Big Sort." Howe posits that the increasing concentration of voters sharing the same political views in certain regions has exacerbated societal splits, resulting in the rise of two especially intransigent factions.

The principal catalysts that might precipitate a disastrous culmination include an economic meltdown, domestic discord, and intense disputes between leading nations.

The author pinpoints three critical dynamics that may drive the Millennial Crisis to its most severe point: an impending economic downturn, rising domestic strife, and intensifying international disputes. The book provides a comprehensive and unsettling analysis of how these scenarios simultaneously present challenges to societies and the international community.

The continuous economic interventions, rather than mitigating the risk, have actually increased the probability of an impending economic downturn.

Howe draws unsettling parallels between the economic landscape of the late 1920s and early 2020s, warning that years of aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus have in fact made another financial crash more likely, not less. The difficulty this time is that implementing additional economic stimulus could complicate matters by potentially worsening inflation and threatening the dominance of the dollar as the primary global reserve currency. According to Howe, should a crash occur, America would be left with no pain-free solution. The anticipated transformation in societal priorities is forecasted to prioritize addressing the difficulties encountered by the younger generation rather than accommodating the affluent, established senior population.

The United States is experiencing a growing divide along geographic, demographic, electoral, and cultural boundaries.

Neil Howe contends that the divisions within American society extend past mere political discord, reflecting deep contrasts in values, ways of living, regional connections, and preferences in culture. The growing divide, exacerbated by people clustering with like-minded individuals and the escalation of inward-looking political conversation, amplifies the likelihood of internal conflict within the United States. He suggests that the growing possibility of conflict is connected to a rising distrust in government bodies, the weakening of social unity, and the attraction to authoritarian populist groups spanning various political ideologies. The groups identified as "blue" and "red" firmly support their unique and divergent visions for the country's destiny, viewing the potential victory of their adversaries as a dire threat that cannot be tolerated. Many individuals are thus prepared to vigorously protect against it, even if it necessitates employing aggression.

The resurgence of major international power disputes and the bolstering of authoritarian regimes since 2008.

The Millennial generation encounters difficulties during a period marked by the re-emergence of substantial global conflicts. He attributes this pattern to a growing conformity among contemporary societies to a cyclical pattern, in which many influential countries have entered distinct stages marked by the distinctive qualities associated with the Fourth Turning. The result is a heightened probability that major international disputes will involve democratic nations and strengthen autocratic regimes. Howe suggests that this escalating trend is exacerbated by a stalemate in American politics and a diminishing global presence, which have both undermined the nation's ability to maintain its traditional functions of assistance and defense for its allies. Should America unexpectedly withdraw from engaging with major global issues and dangers, the ensuing chaos could surpass the disasters that occurred between the period of the Great Depression and World War II.

As the 2030s approach, it is likely that there will be a considerable transformation in the collective consciousness and priorities of American society.

The prediction by the author of the ongoing Millennial Crisis in America is that it will be shaped by three dominant factors: an intensified call for cohesive community ties, an escalating necessity for more secure public spaces, and an increased endorsement of robust government action to meet these needs.

The Rising Demand for Community, Security, and Public Authority

For many years, Americans have fostered an ethos marked by independence, fragmentation, and distrust of power, with each new generation striving to overcome the limitations they believe were set by those who came before them. During times of crisis, Howe suggests that the typical sequence is turned upside down. Historical patterns that repeat themselves often propel a society toward a state where there is a heightened emphasis on unity, with a focus on security, strengthening of community ties, and an increase in the authority and influence of the state. As Millennials ascend to leadership roles, it is anticipated that they will enact measures that emphasize communal obligations and a focus on substantive justice, distinguishing their approach from that of their predecessors.

The country's increasing readiness to tackle both external threats and internal political challenges decisively is clear.

A nation undergoes a profound reassessment of its fundamental values during a Fourth Turning. Problems that were previously considered theoretical or open to compromise suddenly become tangible. As the sense of solidarity within the group strengthens, the use of coercion against those perceived as outsiders gains broader acceptance. The line between "us" and "them" grows sharper, often rationalizing drastic measures to protect the social order or the country. During times of Crisis, there is often strong support among certain individuals for the use of coercion to tackle opponents, both within the country and abroad.

Americans are increasingly inclined to forego individual liberties to foster a stronger sense of collective identity.

Throughout history, periods of upheaval have often led to a profound transformation in society's core values, shifting from an emphasis on individual freedom and self-reliance during tranquil and affluent times to a unified national ethos that prioritizes the well-being of the community, potentially requiring individual compromises when confronted with threats. Howe proposes that a considerable transformation is anticipated, propelled by the intrinsic longing for fellowship, safety, and collective security, which have traditionally motivated past generations to unite in the face of pressing national emergencies. People will probably agree to give up a larger share of their freedom in exchange for enhanced security.

Other Perspectives

• The concept of the "Millennial Crisis" may be an oversimplification of complex socio-economic issues and may not account for the diverse experiences and resilience of the Millennial generation.
• The idea that the 2008 economic downturn marked the start of a unique crisis era could be challenged by historical perspectives that view economic cycles as recurring, rather than unique to a particular generation.
• The assertion that unity is crucial for tackling societal issues may overlook the value of healthy debate and dissent in a democratic society, which can lead to more robust and inclusive solutions.
• The link between the September 11th attacks and a generational crisis could be seen as an arbitrary connection, as geopolitical events often have complex and multifaceted impacts that extend beyond generational lines.
• The view that electoral results have intensified political divisions may not consider the possibility that such divisions have always existed and that the political system is designed to accommodate a spectrum of views.
• The prediction of an impending economic downturn due to continuous interventions could be countered by economic theories that support such interventions as necessary for stabilizing and stimulating the economy.
• The idea of a growing divide in the United States might be challenged by evidence of increased social solidarity and activism among various groups within the country.
• The resurgence of major international power disputes could be interpreted not as a cyclical pattern but as a result of specific political decisions and global dynamics that are not inherently tied to generational changes.
• The anticipation of a transformation in collective consciousness and priorities could be seen as speculative and not necessarily reflective of the diverse and unpredictable nature of societal evolution.
• The rising demand for community, security, and public authority may not be universally accepted, as there are significant populations that continue to value individualism and limited government.
• The readiness to tackle external threats and internal challenges decisively may not be universally seen as positive, especially if it leads to the erosion of civil liberties and democratic processes.
• The inclination to forego individual liberties for a stronger collective identity may be contested by those who argue that individual rights are the cornerstone of American democracy and should not be compromised.

The relationship between recurring motifs in American history and broader global trends.

Howe expands his analysis, suggesting that the repetitive pattern of the saeculum is assuming a more global extent. The swift advancement of modernity and the broadening of global connections have led to societies around the globe becoming more intertwined, which has led to narratives that are more consistent within the context of history and generational experiences. The author argues that a collective destiny for both America and the globe will be forged by the recurring cycles of history.

The start of the global saeculum in the mid-nineteenth century was marked by the alignment of generational patterns worldwide.

Howe integrates ideas from Toynbee and Modelski to suggest that the present global cycle began in the mid-1800s. Triggered by an “eruption” in global technology, this era witnessed the growth of expansive market economies, the rise of populist ideologies and social welfare, and a wave of bloody nationalist wars of unification both in Europe and outside Europe. The tumultuous era that reached its peak near 1870 transitioned into an era of profound societal introspection and the reevaluation of entrenched norms with the advent of the 20th century, characterized by thinkers from different countries questioning established practices and calling for major changes in society. By the late twentieth century, the cyclical trends of most high-income societies, including America, appear to have converged in their timing.

The first occurrence when numerous countries experienced a simultaneous shift in their governance structures during an era referred to as a Fourth Turning.

Howe highlights that the transition from the 18th to the 19th century signified the foundational era for the global cycle of recurring historical patterns. The era marked by substantial upheaval, which began with the American Revolution and unfolded over a quarter of a century, eventually spread to France and later influenced a vast expanse of Europe and Latin America. In each of these domains, a new hero archetype emerged, taking the place of the old, regardless of the outcome being success or defeat. Howe observes that the cohort which lived through the turmoil subsequently collaborated to establish lasting peace treaties and construct strong governmental structures, leaving a legacy on their communities for an entire cycle of approximately 80 to 90 years.

During the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, the collective experiences of various generations intersected on an international level.

The mid-19th and mid-20th centuries' substantial periods of Crisis further reinforced the idea of a worldwide cycle of recurring events. Neil Howe highlights that the rise of the modern nation state as a primary entity in governance, which originated amid widespread social unrest throughout America, Europe, Asia, and Latin America in the mid-19th century, set the stage for a global escalation of aggressive national conflicts. The generational cadence was widely harmonized due to the significant impact of the Great Depression and World War II, resulting in the appearance of similar archetypal patterns in diverse regions.

Over the last two hundred years, affluent economies have more closely aligned their long-term chronological frameworks.

Societal bonds have tightened more rapidly as a result of modernization and globalization, a process Howe compares to mechanical clocks arranged in proximity on a shelf. Nations inherently progress through a cyclical rhythm of generational change, which is shaped by the collective embrace of novel technologies, economic structures, political ideologies, and cultural trends. The manifestation of this convergence is especially noticeable within Western nations, encompassing numerous European states and affluent countries along the western edge of the Pacific Rim. Today, these patterns are mirrored across different age groups, face analogous challenges within the community, and are driven towards radical political beliefs by a cohort of youthful individuals who prioritize prudence and seek equilibrium. Howe cautions that the impending era of Crisis may lead to extensive chaos and strife worldwide, impacting countries regardless of their direct involvement. America is currently experiencing a period in which its unique character appears less pronounced than at any previous point in its history.

Forecasts about the imminent global First Turning and its possible effects on the United States' destiny during the 2030s and 2040s.

Neil Howe anticipates a global rejuvenation following the settlement of the Millennial Crisis. Should this emerging global period of wealth unfold, it might herald a phase of reconstruction and the beginning of an age marked by cooperative endeavors among countries. The nation or collective of nations that emerges dominant after the Crisis will, in Howe's view, set the standards that shape the future. Howe concedes that a scenario with a more pessimistic outcome might precipitate the emergence of a bleak First Turning, marked by escalating worldwide turmoil, a surge in nationalist tactics, and heightened local disputes, which could diminish or even eclipse America's global prominence.

The United States possesses the ability to lead the establishment of a new global political and economic order following the Millennial Crisis.

Howe proposes that should the Millennial Crisis culminate in a resounding triumph for America and its partners, it could present an unparalleled chance to forge a sturdier international framework. The anticipated system is predicted to actively enforce global norms in trade, finance, security, and environmental policies, signifying a notable shift from the hands-off approach that has been dominant since the end of World War II.

A cohort of American technology specialists has the potential to initiate a period marked by global economic prosperity.

Neil Howe describes Millennials as pragmatic idealists proficient in digital technologies, and they may be crucial in this effort. Their collective energy and inclination towards collaboration could establish the foundation for new institutional frameworks, addressing global challenges, and promoting a time of increased wealth and equity. They might spearhead efforts to tackle enduring worldwide issues like climate change, nuclear proliferation, infectious diseases, and poverty, which intensified following the recent downturn in democratic governance. Howe holds an optimistic view that the collective endeavors and the hardships faced throughout the Crisis will establish a solid groundwork for future endeavors.

A potential crisis could lead to a prolonged period of diminished prosperity and widespread international disorder.

Howe acknowledges that the idea of a worldwide era of prosperity arising from the leadership of Millennials following the Millennial Crisis is speculative. Should the Fourth Turning culminate in adverse events like societal discord, the emergence of new illnesses, or atomic standoffs, it seems the prospects for a harmonious worldwide First Turning are greatly reduced.

Imagine a world thrust into the initial phase of a cyclical pattern due to a catastrophic convergence of Crisis, characterized by a scarcity of resources, inadequate regulatory systems, and a severe lack of individuals possessing the necessary power to enforce these systems. He cautions that the emerging era will contrast sharply with the strong, self-assured post-World War II America, and will more closely align with the tumultuous and destitute state of England in the final years of the 16th century, which was rife with extensive poverty, famine, and distrust.

Other Perspectives

• The concept of the saeculum and its global pattern may be too deterministic and overlook the unique and unpredictable nature of historical events.
• The idea of a collective destiny may be too broad and not account for the diverse outcomes and paths different societies can take.
• The start of the global saeculum in the mid-19th century is a Western-centric view that may not accurately reflect the experiences and histories of non-Western societies.
• The notion of a Fourth Turning involving simultaneous shifts in governance structures may be an oversimplification of complex, independent political developments in different countries.
• The intersection of generational experiences internationally could be more coincidental than indicative of a global cycle, with local factors playing a more significant role.
• The alignment of affluent economies' long-term frameworks may not be as harmonious as suggested, considering the persistent economic disparities and conflicts.
• The forecast about the global First Turning and its effects on the United States assumes that current trends will continue, which may not be the case given the unpredictable nature of global events.
• The potential for the United States to lead a new global order post-crisis assumes that other nations will not contest or offer alternative leadership models.
• The role of American technology specialists in driving global prosperity may be challenged by emerging tech hubs and specialists from other countries.
• The prediction of a crisis leading to diminished prosperity and international disorder may not account for the resilience and adaptability of global systems and communities.