Book SummaryUnsettled, by Steven E. Koonin

1-Page Summary1-Page Book Summary of Unsettled

Climate activists have misled the public into thinking there’s proof that our actions have led to global warming and possible climate catastrophe, according to former energy industry scientist Steven E. Koonin. According to these activists, we alone are responsible for recent global warming and must quickly curb carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions to avoid catastrophe. Koonin, however, argues that the facts about climate change are far from certain, contrary to activists’ claims.

In his 2021 book, Unsettled, Koonin concedes that the climate is warming and humans are partially responsible for this warming. However, he contends that the evidence is overstated and climate scientists’ predictions are based on unreliable models. In turn, public misconceptions about human-induced climate change—for example, that it’s causing extreme weather and rising sea levels—are common, and proposed solutions to climate change are unlikely to succeed.

Koonin served as the former chief scientist for the British oil and gas company BP, where he focused on renewable energy, and was...

Unsettled Summary Climate Science: The Basics

In this first section, we’ll discuss Koonin’s answers to three basic questions of climate science:

1. How much has the climate warmed recently?
2. How much are humans responsible for that warming?
3. How accurately can we predict future climate change?

As we’ll see, though Koonin’s answer to the first question aligns with the scientific mainstream, his answers to the second and third questions both depart from the mainstream.

Question #1: How Much Has the Climate Warmed Recently?

Before assessing human impact on global warming, scientists naturally ask about the extent of global warming itself. In this respect, Koonin agrees with the scientific consensus: The Earth’s average surface temperature has risen by about 1°C (1.8°F) since 1850, with a particularly sharp increase beginning in 1980.

To understand climate data, however, Koonin asserts that we need to understand what “climate” means in the first place. Although many laypeople conflate climate with weather, Koonin defines climate as a region’s average weather across a long period of time—typically 30 years. This means we can only see climate change over longer timespans because variations in shorter...

Unsettled Summary Misconceptions About Climate Change

Now that we’ve discussed Koonin’s answers to the key questions about climate science, we’ll discuss his view that misunderstandings about the science have led to three major public misconceptions about climate change: First, that extreme weather is increasing in severity and frequency; second, that human activity has caused sea levels to rise; and third, that climate change will lead to global catastrophe.

Misconception #1: Extreme Weather Is Getting Worse

According to Koonin, climate activists portray bouts of extreme weather as the result of human-induced climate change. However, upon examining the data on record temperatures, hurricanes, flooding, and droughts, Koonin concludes that there’s no long-term trend of weather becoming more extreme.

To begin, Koonin disputes the US government’s 2017 Climate Science Special Report (CCSR), which claimed that record-high temperatures outpaced record-low temperatures in the last 20 years, indicating an increased frequency of record highs. Koonin found that the CSSR relied on so-called “running records” that counted a “record” whenever the temperature was higher than the previous high...

Unsettled Summary Where Climate Science Went Wrong and How to Repair It

Following his arguments that climate science is frequently misconstrued, Koonin attempts to diagnose the root of this problem and propose a remedy. In this section, we’ll examine the various parties that Koonin accuses of distorting climate science, followed by his suggestions for repairing it.

The Parties That Distort Climate Science

Although Koonin argues that an array of parties bear responsibility for misrepresenting climate science, we’ll focus on three main ones: the media, politicians, and climate scientists themselves. According to Koonin, these parties knowingly misrepresent climate science out of their own self-interest.

Party #1: The Media

First, Koonin argues that the media’s climate stories often sacrifice accuracy in exchange for engagement. He clarifies that, because the media is a business, news outlets compete with one another for engagement—in the age of the internet, they compete for clicks. This business model leads to far-fetched headlines and stories, as such stories generate more engagement.

In the case of climate news, this incentivizes incendiary headlines, such as “Climate Scientists Warn of Incoming Doom.” In contrast, Koonin...

Unsettled Summary Possible Responses to Climate Change

Because of the distortion of climate science, Koonin argues that many governments have endorsed impractical responses to climate change. In this section, we’ll first discuss Koonin’s argument that the goal of eliminating carbon emissions is virtually impossible, followed by his proposed alternative responses to mitigate climate change and its effects.

The Impracticality of Eliminating Carbon Emissions

As Koonin notes, one straightforward response to climate change involves eliminating carbon emissions altogether. Indeed, the IPCC claims this response is actually necessary to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement—an international climate accord among 196 nations that aims to keep warming below 2°C by 2100. Koonin, however, argues that eliminating carbon emissions by 2100 is practically impossible because growing energy demands preclude such a radical overhaul of the energy system.

(Shortform note: The Paris Agreement is unlikely to meet its main goals. First, the UN’s own climate...

Shortform Exercise: Evaluate Possible Responses to Climate Change

Koonin argues that rather than focusing on curbing carbon emissions, we should consider alternative responses to climate change, like geoengineering and adaptation. In this exercise, evaluate these different responses to climate change.

Do you agree with Koonin that curbing carbon emissions should be secondary to responses like adaptation and geoengineering? Why or why not?