Book SummaryThe Hundred-Year Marathon, by Michael Pillsbury

1-Page Summary1-Page Book Summary of The Hundred-Year Marathon

China's primary strategic goal is to achieve a position of global dominance over the United States.

Michael Pillsbury's key argument is that since 1949, China has been carefully implementing a strategy he refers to as the "Hundred-Year Marathon," aiming to surpass the United States and achieve preeminent global dominance by 2049. He contends that this ambition has been intentionally obscured, veiled by a carefully constructed facade of peaceful progress and cooperative endeavor. The Marathon, he argues, depends on a deep understanding of Chinese strategic culture, rooted in ancient history and adapted to the modern world. He argues that U.S. policymakers have yet to fully comprehend the genuine challenge presented by the strategy.

This dangerous miscalculation, which Pillsbury identifies, stems from persistent hopeful expectations and the sway of "Panda Huggers" in the US diplomatic circles—people who consistently downplay the possible dangers posed by China while projecting their hopes for the nation's peaceful and democratic evolution. Michael Pillsbury, who previously supported amicable ties with China, has reached an alarming realization after closely engaging with and scrutinizing the country's defense and espionage leadership, as well as their confidential papers and governmental correspondence.

China has devised a long-term strategy that extends over a hundred years.

This section delves into the core argument presented by Pillsbury, which revolves around the implementation and existence of a strategic initiative known as "the Hundred-Year Marathon."

The core historical and ideological elements that constitute China's long-term strategic approach.

Pillsbury argues that to truly grasp this strategy, one must delve deeper than the apparent layer of China's strategic thought, moving beyond the basic tenets of Communist ideology. Pillsbury recognizes the period known as the Warring States, which lasted from 771 BC to 221 BC, as a crucial historical phase that continues to influence the strategic thinking of China's leaders. In this period, the quest for dominance among rival nations resulted in the development of the Thirty-Six Stratagems, a collection that highlights the importance of shrewdness and strategic planning in governance.

Pillsbury contends that China's approach to international relations mirrors the intricate and long-term tactics of "wei qi," aiming not just to defeat opponents but to achieve their total encirclement and control. This viewpoint, he argues, molds their belief that a world order with a single, supreme power at the helm is inevitable. Many hold the conviction that the United States, as a global leader, is on the brink of being surpassed.

The evolution of the Marathon strategy under different Chinese administrations.

Pillsbury charts the evolution of the Marathon strategy, tracing its origins from Mao Zedong and progressing through successive Chinese leadership, culminating with Xi Jinping. He argues that Mao skillfully exploited the competitive dynamics of the United States and the Soviet Union to advance China's goals. Deng Xiaoping recognized the success of the American economic model and embarked on a deliberate initiative to obtain knowledge, technology, and investment from Western countries to bolster China's progress.

Pillsbury contends that the tactics employed by Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao involved understating...

The Hundred-Year Marathon Summary China has been actively involved in espionage, exerting influence, and managing information.

This section of the text suggests that deceit, along with tactics for exerting influence and managing information, constitute fundamental elements of China's century-spanning strategic plan.

China's genuine objectives were kept hidden.

Pillsbury argues that disguising China's true goals is a key element of the strategy for the Hundred-Year Marathon.

Masking true objectives while concurrently strengthening one's capabilities.

Pillsbury argues that China has skillfully concealed its true ambitions by presenting itself as an underdeveloped nation seeking assistance from the West. The approach of quietly improving one's capabilities while keeping one's strategic goals concealed is in accordance with China's age-old tactical teachings.

China shies away from engaging in outright conflict with the United States until its own strengths are sufficiently bolstered.

Pillsbury argues that China has avoided direct confrontation with the U.S. for decades, patiently "keeping a low profile" and "biding its time" until it is strong enough to challenge, and ultimately overtake, America.

Shaping perceptions of China.

Understanding the techniques China employs to shape...

The Hundred-Year Marathon Summary China has a distinct advantage due to its possession of military capabilities.

This section will explore the development of China's unorthodox military strengths aimed at diminishing the United States' strategic advantage.

The strategy referred to as "Assassin's Mace"

Pillsbury puts forth the view that China's strategic military approaches place significant emphasis on utilizing the "Assassin's Mace," which is designed to exploit what are seen as vital vulnerabilities of the United States.

China has focused on developing cost-effective and powerful weaponry designed to target specific vulnerabilities within the United States' defense systems.

Pillsbury argues that China strategically develops cost-effective weaponry with substantial effects, particularly crafted to take advantage of perceived vulnerabilities in the United States, such as its dependence on sophisticated technology. Pillsbury discusses the methods by which China cultivates its "shashoujian," or "Assassin’s Mace" capabilities. He argues that the primary aim of China's military progress is to confront and reduce the dominant military power of the United States.

American dominance is encountering competition in areas such as space, cyber, and naval warfare.

Pillsbury argues...

The Hundred-Year Marathon Summary China's maneuvers have significant consequences for American policy, rivalry, and national security.

While the author is quite critical of current U.S. policies and strategies, he also offers advice on a more effective approach.

The United States must develop a new strategic approach.

The author argues that it is essential to completely overhaul how the United States engages with Beijing to foster more constructive relations with China.

The relationship between the United States and China is fundamentally rooted in competition.

Pillsbury contends that it is crucial for the United States to discard the erroneous notion of China desiring a partnership with America and to formulate a plan acknowledging China as a rival or, minimally, an opponent. It is essential to accurately assess China's ambitions, fully understand its capabilities, and recognize that the era of America's unparalleled global supremacy is approaching its conclusion.

Adopting a more realistic and scrutinizing perspective towards China's long-term goals.

Pillsbury argues that for the U.S. to preserve its status in the Hundred-Year Marathon, it must adopt a cautious and pragmatic stance towards China, carefully examining every pronouncement and move from the Chinese government, and thoroughly...