Book SummaryThe Fourth Turning, by William Strauss and Neil Howe

1-Page Summary1-Page Book Summary of The Fourth Turning

In The Fourth Turning, William Strauss and Neil Howe explain that human history is characterized by a cyclical progression through four “Turnings,” which the authors liken to seasons. Each Turning lasts around 15-25 years (approximately the length of one of four phases of a human life—childhood, young adulthood, middle age, and elderhood) and is defined by the behaviors of the generations passing through them, specifically by how they react to societal changes and events.

William Strauss (1947–2007) was an author, playwright, historian, and lecturer who worked for the U.S. Department of Energy and later the Subcommittee on Energy, Nuclear Proliferation, and Government Processes. Neil Howe is an author, consultant, and a senior associate for the former [Global Aging Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International...

The Fourth Turning Summary The Four Turnings

Like a single phase of a human life, a Turning lasts around 15-25 years. A single cycle of these four Turnings is called a saeculum. Turnings aren’t characterized by the events that occur during them, but rather by society’s reactions to those events. According to the authors, a First Turning is a High, a Second Turning is an Awakening, a Third Turning is an Unraveling, and a Fourth Turning is a Crisis. The saeculum theory is based on a cyclical view of time—the idea that the same themes and types of events recur and will continue to recur throughout history—as opposed to the chaotic theory, which views time as a series of random and unrelated events, or the linear theory, which views time as a non-recurring progression with a definite start and end.

(Shortform note: Other writers have proposed a fourth theory of time known as the spiral theory. This combines the cyclical theory with the linear theory. It suggests that, while themes and events do recur throughout history, we can also learn and improve as time goes on and shift the spiral up—or we can continue to make bad choices and shift the spiral down. In the spiral...

The Fourth Turning Summary Generational Archetypes

According to the authors, each generation in society fits into one of four different archetypes: the Prophet generation, the Nomad generation, the Hero generation, and the Artist generation. Archetypes help characterize the generations and explain why they behave in certain ways during each Turning. The birth range of a generation is about 15-25 years—approximately the same length as a Turning—and the pattern proceeds almost universally in this order. Those born on the cusps of generational divides can be sorted based on the generation they most identify with—for example, the Boomer generation spanned from approximately 1943 to 1960, but someone born in 1961 might identify with the Boomer generation, while someone born in 1959 might identify with Generation X.

(Shortform note: Critics of generational theory argue that distinctions between age groups like the ones Strauss and Howe make are arbitrary and unsupported by solid evidence. They point out that different theories on generations contradict each other and often use such vague criteria that they become useless. Others...

The Fourth Turning Summary America’s Most Recent Turnings

The authors published this book in 1997, at which point they explained that the US was nearing the end of a Third Turning. America’s current saeculum began in 1946, just after World War II (America’s most recent Crisis), which is where we’ll start.

The American High: A First Turning

The First Turning of our current saeculum lasted from 1946 to 1964, explain the authors. With the Crisis of the war over, the G.I. generation returned from war with renewed optimism and a sense of collective purpose. They were welcomed back home as brave champions and began forming secure, prosperous families.

(Shortform note: The success of the American High depended largely on the Allies’ victory in World War II. Critics before the war cautioned that a loss would result in America being dismantled and taken over by the victors, which would essentially be the end of the American empire. Modern scholars suggest that although there was very little chance of an Allied loss by the time America entered the war, a loss would have...

The Fourth Turning Summary Predictions About the Crisis

The authors predicted that the Fourth Turning—a Crisis—would begin within the first few years of the 21st century, around 2005. Because the catalysts for a Fourth Turning are always foreseeable based on the trends that are established during the Unraveling, the authors make a handful of predictions about what the next catalyst might look like:

A terrorist attack by a foreign group purporting to have nuclear weapons, leading the US to declare war and begin searching people’s homes. Suspicions that the president fabricated the event would lead to a nationwide strike and the loss of foreign capital.

(Shortform note: This prediction bears a striking resemblance to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center. As the authors suggest in the book, there were some warnings of this attack in advance, including a memo sent to the FBI by Special Agent Kenneth Williams in July of 2001 warning of a potential terrorist plot by Osama Bin Laden. The memo was not acted upon, and experts have suggested that it could have been used to mitigate or prevent the September 11 attack if it had been dealt with...

Shortform Exercise: Identify Your Generational Role

According to Strauss and Howe’s theory, everyone fits into a generation that plays a specific role in each Turning. Identify what generation you belong to and how that affects your role.

Based on your birth year, which generation do you belong to? In what ways do you relate to the authors’ descriptions of your generation? If you’re a Millennial (of the Hero generation), for example, did you feel highly protected by your parents as a child?