Book SummaryThe Fourth Turning Is Here, by Neil Howe

1-Page Summary1-Page Book Summary of The Fourth Turning Is Here

The concept revolves around the repetitive nature of historical cycles in American history.

Grasping the significance of the saeculum in historical context.

Neil Howe introduces the idea that the history of English-speaking nations follows a recurring cycle, which usually spans the length of a long human life, estimated to be between 80 to 100 years. This concept sheds light on the recurring transformations within society, encompassing shifts in collective consciousness, the advancement of different generational cohorts, and the regular occurrence of major societal challenges.

The idea that a saeculum spans the length of a long human life originated with the Etruscans and underwent alterations by the Romans.

The concept of a cyclical period akin to the duration of a human lifespan was first recognized by the Etruscans, a civilization that flourished in Italy prior to the rise of Roman supremacy. Howe notes that they viewed time as a predestined destiny, measuring it in units known as saecula, a term that denotes the length of a long human life. The Etruscans maintained a prophecy that their civilization would last for precisely ten saecula, and this prediction proved to be remarkably accurate. The Romans assimilated this concept into their perspective, firmly believing that Rome would endure for twelve saecula, a period symbolized by its founder, Romulus, who purportedly witnessed twelve vultures. Howe emphasizes the Roman tradition of meticulously mapping out their destiny by employing the notion of the saeculum, which was commemorated in the grand "saecular games" and utilized to mark different historical periods. Periodic wars, crises, and renewals appeared to mark the Roman saeculum in a manner akin to that of the modern British-American cycle.

During the Renaissance, there emerged a fresh appreciation for how 'saeculum' relates to the progression of temporal events on Earth.

During the Renaissance, an era marked by the adoption of progressive, chronological views of history, Howe explores the revival of the notion referred to as the saeculum. Historical patterns within Western societies have resurfaced due to the rediscovery of classical texts and the individual spiritual beliefs that arose with the Reformation. The idea of "saeculum" evolved into an understanding that history advances through distinct eras, each encompassing a period equivalent to a century. Howe underscores the growing Western preoccupation with social progress and the patterns of generational change, which currently aligns with a renewed focus on the concept of the saeculum. The reinvigorated attention to chronological progression, fueled by an ambition to break free from the recurring cycles of history, unintentionally led to the resurgence of the contemporary concept of saecula, significantly influencing Western culture and making a lasting impact on the course of American historical development.

Societal attitudes undergo significant transformations as a result of the periodic changes within the saeculum.

The concept involves a cycle of four distinct historical periods, each lasting about twenty years and corresponding with specific societal moods. Each generation's actions and the course of historical events are influenced by their unique experiences and values, which are molded by these cyclical turnings. Howe utilizes this framework to analyze the cyclical patterns of American history, revealing how the nation's social, political, and cultural landscape have been shaped by these recurring moods.

The initial phase, often referred to as the High, is characterized by a time when the nation's collective ethos is bolstered and its societal frameworks are strengthened.

In periods of High, a prevailing atmosphere of positivity and the reinforcement of communal bonds greatly enhance the spirit of the community and markedly boost the public's spirits. In the wake of a crisis, there is a shared determination to foster a stable atmosphere, construct an orderly setting, and strive for the growth of the economy. Public arguments focus on how to achieve shared goals, rather than questioning those goals themselves. Child upbringing is approached with greater flexibility, and social standards shift toward uniformity and agreement. Howe emphasizes that each First Turning is characterized by a prevailing national optimism, potentially bordering on arrogance, along with a collective readiness to put past tumults behind. Officials focus on initiating substantial initiatives that bolster the nation's foundational structures and expand the emerging social framework.

The era referred to as the Second Turning was marked by deep changes in societal values and substantial modifications to its framework.

The era referred to as The Second Turning is marked by an increased focus on spiritual matters and a questioning of the status quo and traditional convictions. Howe posits that in times of abundance, a new generation emerges to confront the existing sense of self-satisfaction, prioritizing individual contentment over the collective good. Public conversation becomes increasingly divided when faced with the emergence of new ideologies and values. Times of increased spiritual and societal innovation frequently lead to the emergence of movements driven by a strong sense of idealism and a call for significant societal...

The Fourth Turning Is Here Summary The cyclical patterns of history are propelled by the forces of generational archetypes.

Neil Howe posits that the recurring patterns of the saeculum are propelled by the interactions among distinct cohorts of generations. As different cohorts come of age during pivotal societal shifts, their unique experiences shape the cycles they influence when they rise to positions of authority and start their own families during their middle-aged years. Generations advance the cycle by assuming roles that correspond to the scripts linked to their respective life stages.

Each generation's unique characteristics and the typical progression of their life phases.

Howe elaborates on the concept that there are four recurring generational archetypes: the Prophet, the Nomad, the Hero, and the Artist. Each stage in a society's multigenerational cycle is marked by distinct values, behaviors, and social functions that consistently arise and are represented by unique generational archetypes. The formative influences of generational dynamics play a significant role in shaping each archetype, which in turn impacts how it nurtures the following generation.

The metamorphosis of the Prophet involves their progression from a protected idealist to a resolute elder...

The Fourth Turning Is Here Summary The current period is characterized by significant challenges that could deeply affect the structure of American society, particularly those faced by the generation of Millennials.

Neil Howe posits that the beginning of the period he terms the Millennial Crisis aligns with the global economic downturn that commenced in 2008. He argues that the prevailing mood is characterized by a growing despair, fueled by an inert economy and the resurgence of fierce rivalry among the world's major powers, alongside deepening political divides. In these challenging periods, unity among United States citizens is crucial to tackle and resolve critical matters shaping the nation's future trajectory.

The Millennial Crisis signified the onset of rejuvenation, encompassing the early phases and precipitating incidents.

The author identifies the key events that have shaped the ongoing narrative of the Millennial Crisis. These encompass a predictive harbinger, an initiating event, and a politically divisive initial renewal stage.

The palpable feeling of an approaching crisis was underscored by the conflict associated with terrorism following the events of September 11th.

Neil Howe links the onset of the Millennial Crisis to the September 11th attacks and the subsequent military engagements in Afghanistan and Iraq from 2001 to 2003. The event briefly united a...

The Fourth Turning Is Here Summary The relationship between recurring motifs in American history and broader global trends.

Howe expands his analysis, suggesting that the repetitive pattern of the saeculum is assuming a more global extent. The swift advancement of modernity and the broadening of global connections have led to societies around the globe becoming more intertwined, which has led to narratives that are more consistent within the context of history and generational experiences. The author argues that a collective destiny for both America and the globe will be forged by the recurring cycles of history.

The start of the global saeculum in the mid-nineteenth century was marked by the alignment of generational patterns worldwide.

Howe integrates ideas from Toynbee and Modelski to suggest that the present global cycle began in the mid-1800s. Triggered by an “eruption” in global technology, this era witnessed the growth of expansive market economies, the rise of populist ideologies and social welfare, and a wave of bloody nationalist wars of unification both in Europe and outside Europe. The tumultuous era that reached its peak near 1870 transitioned into an era of profound societal introspection and the reevaluation of entrenched norms with the advent of the 20th century, characterized...