Book SummaryThe End of the World Is Just the Beginning, by Peter Zeihan

1-Page Summary1-Page Book Summary of The End of the World Is Just the Beginning

It’s easy to envision the ways the world might end—nuclear war, mass extinction, and climate disasters may be the first that come to mind. However, according to geopolitical expert Peter Zeihan, the most pressing threat to human civilization is the impending collapse of international trade. In The End of the World Is Just the Beginning, published in 2022, Zeihan predicts that a looming demographic implosion will trigger a global trade crisis, which the United States may exacerbate if it stops using its military resources to safeguard international shipping.

The end of globalized international trade would spell worldwide economic disaster, causing turmoil and hardships that would be felt by every person on the planet. These would include higher energy costs, political instability, less access to goods and resources, and potential famine in large swaths of the planet. Unfortunately,...

The End of the World Is Just the Beginning Summary The Golden Age (1945-2020)

Before we can speculate about the end of globalization, we need to define what it entails. According to Zeihan, globalization is the system of free and safe trade between countries, characterized by international economic competition and interdependence on a worldwide scale. Zeihan contrasts this to the prior status quo of empire-building and wars over resources, which climaxed in the first half of the 20th century before the United States changed the paradigm of international commerce.

(Shortform note: Zeihan defines globalization purely in terms of international trade, but that’s not the only way to frame it. According to the World Health Organization, globalization also refers to how governments, businesses, and organizations adapt to the realities of international interdependence. The term is also used to describe the free flow of capital, technology, and intellectual property across international boundaries.)

Throughout history, **geography has played a crucial role in determining a country's survival...

The End of the World Is Just the Beginning Summary Globalization Falls Apart

All good things come to an end, and according to Zeihan, globalization’s days are just about over. This is because the pillars that support it—cheap energy, low-risk transportation, and stable supply lines for manufacturing and food—are crumbling.

The fall of the Soviet Union marked a turning point for globalization, as the US’s primary reason for maintaining international security disappeared. Although the US hasn’t completely abandoned its role as global protector, it has become increasingly difficult to justify this position to itself and its citizens. While the relaxed global tensions following the Cold War were a boon for most countries—resulting in a free-for-all of worldwide economic expansion—Zeihan argues that this era was the peak of globalization, and its gains aren’t sustainable because of their overdependence on the US ensuring peaceful global trade.

(Shortform note: While Zeihan asserts that global order rests entirely on the US’s shoulders, Gen. H.R. McMaster is highly critical of this perspective, referring to it as “strategic narcissism.” In...

The End of the World Is Just the Beginning Summary The Shape of Things to Come

Though the problems coming our way may be unpleasant to think about, finding a way through them is even more difficult. Zeihan attempts to do so by focusing on the most basic needs that nations have to fulfill, including acquiring enough resources and food to keep people going through the lean times ahead.

Zeihan argues that of all the world’s countries, the US is uniquely positioned to weather the storms of deglobalization. The US has more high-quality farmland than any other country, which will serve it well in the trying times to come. Thanks to fracking technology that lets the US drill for shale oil, as well as an abundance of land that's ideal for solar and wind power, the US has lower energy prices than any other country. Moreover, thanks to the geographic barriers of two oceans and its strong economic ties with its only two neighbors (Canada and Mexico), the US is essentially invasion-proof against other rival states that may envy its resources.

(Shortform note: Even if Zeihan’s right that the US would do better during deglobalization than other countries, [the US would still suffer in several...

Shortform Exercise: Are You Worried About Deglobalization?

Zeihan presents a grim view—that every country in the world today is dependent on reliable international trade for its survival and well-being, a system that Zeihan says isn’t sustainable. Consider whether or not you believe Zeihan’s warnings are well-founded and how his predictions might affect you if they should come to pass.

Think about the industry you work in—in what ways does it rely on international trade? What about the food you eat or the products you buy for your home—how would your personal lifestyle have to change if you no longer had access to imported goods?