Book SummaryThe Avoidable War, by Kevin Rudd

1-Page Summary1-Page Book Summary of The Avoidable War

Hostility between the US and China has been growing for over a decade, eroding the wary but pragmatic relationship of years past. Now, as tensions threaten to escalate, diplomat and politician Kevin Rudd argues that a full-blown military conflict can and should be averted.

Rudd describes the US and China as opposites perpetually at odds with one another—the US being a democratic capitalist nation and China an authoritarian socialist nation. Nonetheless, the two global powers have maintained a strategic relationship in which both benefited from each other’s economic markets despite their ideological differences.

Rudd argues that this tenuous relationship is unraveling due to a combination of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s strategies and priorities, the US’s reactions to China’s rise to global prominence, and deep mistrust and ideological differences on both sides. In _[The...

The Avoidable War Summary Historical Context on the US-China Relationship

Rudd explains that to understand the modern-day relationship between the US and China, we must first examine the long history between the two countries: the events that have damaged their mutual trust and the ways they have strived to gain mutual benefits. We’ll start with a timeline summarizing key events in US-China relations. (Shortform note: The earliest written records of China date back to 1600 BC during the Shang dynasty, over 3,000 years before the US became an independent nation. Although Rudd briefly discusses China’s early history, diplomatic relations between the US and China began during the mid-1800s, where we’ll start our timeline.)

19th-Century Imperialism: Animosity Between the US and China

The 19th century was an era of imperial expansion for many European nations and the US. During this period, foreign powers annexed Chinese territory and ended its isolationism.

Rudd writes that the First Opium War from 1839 to 1842 was one of the first impetuses for hostility between the US and China. (Shortform note: The First Opium War between China and...

The Avoidable War Summary Xi’s Priorities and Strategies

This context on the ups and downs of historic relations between the US and China leads us to Rudd’s next area of focus: China’s shifts in domestic and international policies under the leadership of President Xi starting in 2013. Rudd explains that Xi’s goals—and the shift they represent from previous years—are key to understanding why tensions between the US and China have escalated over the last decade.

Under the previous leadership of Deng Xiaoping from 1978-1989, China was focused on growing the economy through increased global trade and opening to foreign investment, which the US benefited from. The transition to Xi’s administration signaled a shift because China had now achieved the economic stability required to expand the scope of its priorities in ways that threaten the global supremacy of the US.

Rudd writes that Xi’s key priorities include keeping the CCP in power through strategic economic reforms, restoring Chinese territory, and increasing China’s global influence. In this section, we’ll describe each of these strategies in more detail as well as how they contribute to China’s power struggle with the US.

(Shortform note: In addition to economic stability, a...

The Avoidable War Summary The Current Status of US-China Relations

Rudd suggests that Xi’s strategies for bolstering China’s domestic and international power have caused increasing hostility between the US and China. Overall, he contends that each side views the other as an existential threat, and neither side believes the public stances of the opposing government. He writes that the last decade has been marked by several events triggering a downturn in US-China relations: increased cyberattacks by both sides, China’s heightened military presence in the South China Sea, former President Donald Trump’s trade war with China in 2018-2019, anti-China rhetoric by the US during the Covid-19 pandemic, and the US’s high-level diplomatic meetings in Taiwan.

Rudd says these events and the loss of trust that resulted have hindered the countries’ ability to cooperate even on a practical level, such as by maintaining beneficial trade relations. In this section, we describe Rudd’s summary of the US and China’s different perspectives.

(Shortform note: This tendency for both countries to outright deny the claims of the other has seemingly increased in recent years. For example, each side has [accused the other of cyberattacks while denying their own...

The Avoidable War Summary Consequences of a US-China War and How to Avoid It

Rudd argues that if tensions escalate to a military conflict, a US-China War would be catastrophic on many levels. He claims that a war would take its toll on both countries as well as the global community, and the risks of war make it worth striving for an alternative. Rudd’s most important reason to avoid war is the loss of human life that would result from military conflict.

In addition, Rudd writes that both countries would pay a high economic price if they waged war (for weaponry, equipment, and deploying troops), a war would cause global instability by potentially pulling other allies into the conflict, and both countries would risk losing domestic political power and global prestige if they lost the war or failed to decisively win.

The Economic Pros and Cons of a US-China War

Although Rudd highlights the high economic cost of war for both countries, others argue that economic pressure is also the most likely to motivate the US and China to start a war. Both countries want access to the semiconductors manufactured in Taiwan,...

Shortform Exercise: Reflect on US-China Relations

Now that we’ve covered the history of US-China relations, China’s core priorities under Xi’s leadership, and how the two superpowers can avoid war, reflect on how Rudd’s argument has changed your understanding of this politically complex situation and how it might unfold in the future.

In the brief history of the key events in the China-US relationship, were there any historical events that you didn’t know about before or were surprised by? Explain why.