Every day, we’re confronted with decisions small and large, whether it’s what to eat for breakfast or which career to pursue. Because our information is often messy and unclear, however, the right decision isn’t always obvious. According to Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann, the remedy is mental models.
In Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models, Weinberg and McCann argue that mental models–concepts and patterns used to analyze various situations–provide the framework to optimize decisions amidst uncertainty. More generally, they argue that using these models can lead to super thinking, the ability to accurately...
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We’ll begin by explaining what mental models are, where they come from, and why they’re valuable in decision-making.
In short, mental models are concepts and patterns that help us understand various situations across distinct topics. For instance, the mental model of supply and demand dictates that the relation between supply and demand determines prices: If supply exceeds demand, the price decreases, and if demand exceeds supply, the price increases.
(Shortform note: In The Great Mental Models Volume 1, Shane Parrish and Rhiannon Beaubien describe mental models as representations of how things work. Weinberg and McCann, however, go further, using the term “mental models” to describe a wide array of concepts beyond mere representations of how things work. For example, they even refer to generic phenomena such as multitasking and organizational culture as mental models. For clarity, we’ve italicized the mental models...
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To understand the general advantages of mental models, we’ll discuss mental models that help us avoid common pitfalls in decision-making. This discussion is two-fold: First, we’ll examine models that help us avoid shoddy reasoning, and second, we’ll examine models that help us avoid unintended consequences. By applying these models, we’ll make better-informed decisions whose consequences we understand.
Weinberg and McCann assert that, when reasoning, we naturally defer to conventional thinking and our intuition, which is our ability to reason subconsciously. However, conventional thinking and intuition are shaped by inflexible assumptions, which means they can be rigid. For example, the practice of bloodletting–withdrawing someone’s blood for medicinal purposes–was part of conventional medical practice because it fit neatly with Humorism, the theory that we’re composed of four humors (blood, phlegm, black bile, and yellow bile). Since Humorism was an entrenched assumption, it led to a rigid belief in the efficacy of bloodletting...
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At this point, we have a good grasp of what to avoid when making decisions. Now, we’ll turn to mental models demonstrating what to do instead.
First, we’ll examine the general fundamentals of decision-making, exploring an array of mental models for increasingly complex situations. Afterward, we’ll explore ways to make decisions efficiently, since making the best decision is pointless if it takes an impractical amount of time.
Weinberg and McCann assert that decision-making is difficult because nobody has access to perfectly accurate, comprehensive sources of information. Rather, our information is often messy and flawed, so we can’t always predict how our decisions will pan out. In this section, we’ll explore decision-making models to recommend the best choice based on the complexity of the decision.
First, let’s look at the best-known decision-making tool: the pro-con list, which sorts the pros and cons of a decision in parallel columns, making it easier to see the positive and negative consequences. For instance, imagine you’re a lawyer deciding whether to accept a higher-paying position...
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So far, we’ve focused on general principles of decision-making, with an eye toward pitfalls to avoid and models to apply instead. In Part 4, we’ll explore more specific uses of mental models, focusing on professional uses for business leaders.
First, we’ll examine mental models to understand general strategies for building successful companies and business models. Next, we’ll focus on building successful teams and helping your employees reach their potential. Then, we’ll examine mental models geared toward increasing and retaining your market power. Finally, we’ll conclude by discussing mental models designed to avoid, or minimize, conflict with competitors.
In evolutionary theory, the process driving evolution is natural selection. Broadly speaking, natural selection dictates that genes which contribute to genetic fitness—the ability to survive and reproduce—are most likely to be passed down. For example, giraffes with longer necks can reach food more easily than those with shorter necks, which improves their odds of surviving and reproducing. In turn, [that trait is more likely to be passed down to future...
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Weinberg and McCann offer multiple decision-making models designed to analyze increasingly complex decisions. In this exercise, practice applying these models to decisions you’ve made in the past as well as decisions you’ll make in the future.
Think back to a time when you made a difficult decision. Why was the decision so difficult? What method(s) did you use to reach the decision?
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