Book SummaryNumbers Don't Lie, by Vaclav Smil

1-Page Summary1-Page Book Summary of Numbers Don't Lie

In Numbers Don’t Lie, Canadian scientist and economist Vaclav Smil argues that numbers, when used correctly, can help us understand the world. But people often misunderstand what certain metrics are saying or use statistics that don’t tell a complete story. To get an accurate view of the world, we must place numbers in the proper context and understand how they were calculated. To figure out what the many numbers and metrics used in the modern...

Numbers Don't Lie Summary Commonly Used Metrics and What They Say About Countries and Populations

Metrics on GDP, unemployment, population growth, and happiness levels, to name a few, are used regularly by the media and are often taken at face value by the general public, claims Smil. But what do these numbers actually tell us? And what information do they leave out? Let’s look at a few commonly used metrics and determine their significance.

Metrics on Population Happiness Aren’t Fully Accurate

We should always take reports of a country’s happiness with a grain of salt, as happiness is difficult to measure, writes Smil. He argues against the validity of the World Happiness Report, which the media regularly cites as an accurate measure of the quality of life in different countries.

This report calculates happiness using several variables: GDP per capita, social support, life expectancy, freedom to make life choices, generosity, and perception of corruption. GDP, as we'll discuss further, is not a good indicator of quality of life. Other variables, like freedom of choice and perception of corruption, depend too heavily on subjective answers that are difficult to compare across cultures.

The Use of the World Happiness Report

Since its inception in...

Numbers Don't Lie Summary Assessing the Well-Being of Economically Powerful Countries

Now that we’ve examined some common metrics, we’ll look specifically at a few prominent countries and what the metrics are for them. Smil argues that the most important measure of success for a country is not its GDP, as many believe, but the well-being of its citizens. The way we over-value economic success can be seen in the top three countries by GDP: the United States, China, and Japan. Though on the surface these countries may seem to thrive, a closer inspection tells a different story. Let’s examine each country.

The United States

Smil points out that the US isn’t as exceptional as many think. Though it’s an economic powerhouse, the US is profoundly lacking when measuring the prosperity of its people. Its infant mortality rate, as mentioned above, sits at 6, which ranks 33rd out of 36 nations in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). This can largely be attributed to the country’s lack of universal healthcare, which every other wealthy nation has. Furthermore, out of the 36 OECD nations, the US ranks first in obesity percentage and 28th in life expectancy.

Additional Factors GDP Doesn’t Account For

In...

Numbers Don't Lie Summary Metrics on Environmental Challenges of the Modern World

Now that we’ve discussed numbers about populations and countries, let’s look at some important numbers about the environment. Smil argues that the main challenge we face in the modern world is how to continue raising standards of living for billions of people while sharply decreasing our carbon emissions.

Unfortunately, when looking at the numbers, this challenge is close to impossible. We simply rely too much on fossil fuels to power the global economy, and the technological advances we would need to make to replace carbon-heavy industries are unlikely to happen in the near future. It’s important, however, to look at the facts and be realistic about the challenges we face. Let’s do that by first examining our carbon emissions and the failure of technology to protect us from environmental degradation. We’ll then look at a variety of areas that impact the environment and the numbers associated with those.

Significantly Curbing Carbon Emissions Will Be Nearly Impossible

To help understand our environmental challenges, Smil provides the numbers for the amount of carbon we emit through the use of fossil fuels. At the beginning of the 19th century, global carbon...

Numbers Don't Lie Summary The Numbers on Sustainable Energy

A key environmental challenge of the 21st century is transitioning our energy sources away from fossil fuel consumption. Smil argues that we must be realistic about this transition, and understand the numbers behind it if we wish to make meaningful progress.

Energy transitions take time. The transition from wood and charcoal to coal, oil, and gas as the world’s main source of energy took a century. Transitioning away from fuels that currently produce 10 billion tons of annual carbon emissions will be a much more difficult task. While alternative energies like solar, wind, and nuclear are being adopted, they won’t be able to replace fossil fuel consumption any time soon. In this section, we’ll go over each of these energy alternatives and provide further insight into our reliance on fossil fuels.

Nuclear Energy Isn’t Strong Enough to Reduce Our Dependence on Fossil Fuels

Many point to nuclear energy as the best possible replacement for fossil fuel energy; when it began to take off in the 1970s, some predicted it would provide virtually all of the world's electricity by 2000. However, Smil argues that it has failed to do so for several reasons.

Catastrophic failures of...

Numbers Don't Lie Summary The Environmental Footprint of Transportation and Shipping

Statistics show that another significant contributor to carbon emissions is transportation and shipping. Smil argues that it will take a radical change to go carbon-neutral in these industries. From cargo ships to airplanes to cars, the entire world now runs on fossil fuel-powered vehicles. Let’s look at the numbers behind the transportation and shipping industries.

Diesel Engines Will Continue to Dominate

According to Smil, diesel engines are an integral part of the globalized economy. Diesel engines are much more efficient (15 to 20%) than their gasoline-powered counterparts, and they are reliable, durable, and have relatively low operating costs. Because of this, they power virtually every container ship, truck, and freight train, moving our most important commodities (oil, cement, grain) around the world. There is simply no better way to transport the massive amount of materials than diesel engines, and this will remain true for the foreseeable future.

(Shortform note: While we aren’t getting rid of diesel engines any time soon, there are some new technologies that may drastically reduce emissions from the transport sector. [A Swedish transport company is using over...

Numbers Don't Lie Summary Food Production’s Contribution to Carbon Emissions

Our food production also plays a big role in climate change, and as the global population continues to rise, Smil argues we must make changes in the way we produce and consume food. We’ll look at the numbers of three key aspects of food production: the use of nitrogen fertilizer, food waste, and meat consumption.

Nitrogen Fertilizers Are Harmful

Smil argues that the use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers impacts the environment in two major ways: It adds to greenhouse gas emissions, and it causes nitrogen to be removed from the soil. Crops need nitrogen, and the traditional ways farmers supplied nitrogen to crops (recycling organic materials and rotating crops) are no longer adequate as the population now reaches close to 8 billion people. To provide nitrogen to crops, we synthesize almost 150 million tons of ammonium a year to make fertilizers, a process that’s environmentally harmful. Let’s look in more detail at fertilizers’ impact on greenhouse gas emissions and soil nitrogen.

(Shortform note: In The Omnivore’s Dilemma, Michael Pollan provides [historical context for the proliferation of nitrogen...

Shortform Exercise: Examine Your Transportation Habits

Based on some of Smil’s metrics about the environmental footprint of transportation, consider steps you can take to reduce the environmental impact of your travel. Because such change will require a collaborative, global effort, think about what you can do as an individual and as a member of a community.

Consider your method of daily and weekly travel. Do you drive to work alone in a vehicle? Do you ever take public transportation, bike, or walk? Jot down some of your common transport methods and how often you use them.