Life on Earth has drastically transformed since it first began. The first single-celled organisms could do little more than replicate themselves. Fast-forward to today: Humans have built a civilization so complex that it would be utterly incomprehensible to the lifeforms that came before us.
Judging by recent technological strides, author Max Tegmark believes that an equally revolutionary change is underway. If an amoeba is “Life 1.0,” and humans are “Life 2.0,” Tegmark contends that an artificial superintelligence could become “Life 3.0.” A power like this could either save or destroy humanity, and Tegmark argues that it’s our responsibility to do everything we can to ensure a positive outcome—before it’s too late.
(Shortform note: This view of the history and progression of life is central to a philosophy called “Dataism.” According to Yuval Noah Harari in Homo Deus, Dataists believe that lifeforms are more valuable and meaningful depending on how well they can process complex data. Thus, humans aren’t...
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Tegmark defines intelligence as the capacity to successfully achieve complex goals. Thus, an “artificial superintelligence” is a computer sophisticated enough to understand and accomplish goals far more capably than today’s humans. For example, a computer that could manage an entire factory at once—designing, manufacturing, and shipping out new products all on its own—would be an artificial superintelligence. By definition, a superintelligent computer would have the power to do things that humans currently can’t; thus, it’s likely that its invention would drastically change the world.
Tegmark asserts that if we ever invent artificial superintelligence, it will probably occur after we’ve already created “artificial general intelligence” (AGI). This term refers to an AI that can accomplish any task with at least human-level proficiency—including the task of designing more advanced AI.
Experts disagree regarding how likely it is that computers will reach human-level general intelligence. Some dismiss it as an impossibility, while others only disagree on when it will probably occur. According to a survey Tegmark conducted at a...
So far, we’ve explained that an artificial superintelligence is a technology that would greatly surpass human capabilities, and we’ve argued why it’s possible that artificial superintelligence might someday exist. Now, let’s discuss what this means for us humans.
We’ll explain why a superintelligence’s “goal” is the primary factor that will determine how it will change the world. Then, we’ll explore how much power such a superintelligence would have. Finally, we’ll discuss what might happen to humanity after a powerful superintelligence enters the world, investigating three optimistic scenarios followed by three pessimistic ones.
Tegmark asserts that if an artificial superintelligence comes into being, the fate of the human race depends on what that superintelligence sets as its goal. For instance, if a superintelligence pursues the goal of maximizing human happiness, it could create a utopia for us. If, on the other hand, it sets the goal of maximizing its intelligence, it could kill humanity in its efforts to convert all matter in the universe into computer processors.
It may sound like science fiction to say that...
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We’ve covered a range of possible outcomes of artificial superintelligence, from salvation to disaster. However, all these scenarios are merely theoretical—let’s now discuss some of the obstacles we can address today to help create a better future.
We’ll first briefly disregard the idea of superintelligence and discuss some of the less speculative AI-related issues society needs to overcome in the near future. Then, we’ll conclude with some final thoughts on what we can do to improve the odds that the creation of superintelligence will have a positive outcome.
The rise of an artificial superintelligence isn’t the only thing we have to worry about. According to Tegmark, it’s likely that rapid AI advancements will create numerous challenges that we as a society need to manage. Let’s discuss:
First, Tegmark argues that AI threatens to increase economic inequality. Generally, as researchers develop the technology to automate more types of labor, companies gain the ability to serve their customers while hiring...
Reflect on the future of artificial intelligence and consider what you can do to help solve AI-related problems.
Do you think an artificial superintelligence will be created within your lifetime? Why or why not?
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