Book SummaryFalse Alarm, by Bjørn Lomborg

1-Page Summary1-Page Book Summary of False Alarm

According to progressive media and politicians, climate change constitutes an existential threat, requiring drastic cuts in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions to avoid catastrophe. Indeed, the World Health Organization even considers climate change the single largest health threat to humanity. However, Bjørn Lomborg argues that while climate change poses a significant threat, it is not a cataclysmic one.

In his 2020 book, False Alarm, Lomborg concedes that climate change will have a notable impact if left unchecked, costing $140 trillion of global gross domestic...

False Alarm Summary Methodological Assumptions

To begin, we’ll discuss the methodological assumptions that Lomborg depends on. These assumptions provide an objective measure for evaluating climate policies.

Temperature: The Proxy for Climate Change

First, Lomborg asserts that temperature is the best proxy for climate change. Admittedly, climate change has numerous effects: It leads to floods, droughts, and rising sea levels. But, these effects are connected to one factor: temperature.

(Shortform note: Although temperature is the main measurement of climate change, scientists use a variety of other measures. For example, they measure average wind speed and direction to evaluate extreme weather events, and they measure precipitation to see further impacts on the climate.)

Lomborg agrees with the scientific consensus that temperatures rise because of CO₂ in the atmosphere. Since CO₂ lets more heat into the atmosphere while blocking its escape, it increases temperature. Further, because fossil fuels—like coal, oil, and gas—emit CO₂ when burned, using them increases global temperatures. Beyond fossil...

False Alarm Summary Correcting Climate Alarmism

Next, Lomborg argues that climate alarmism—the view that climate change poses an apocalyptic threat—is unfounded. This view is pervasive: A 2019 poll suggests that nearly half of the world believes climate change will end the human race.

To argue against climate alarmism, Lomborg first examines the impact of climate change on extreme weather, then considers the cost climate change will have on global GDP.

The Truth About Extreme Weather

Lomborg writes that climate alarmists all echo the same sentiment: Climate change leads to more extreme weather. Opposing this view, he argues that climate change has had relatively little impact on extreme weather. In particular, he examines droughts, flooding, wildfires, and hurricanes, arguing that climate change hasn’t exacerbated these phenomena.

(Shortform note: Since 1991, an average of 189 million people each year have been impacted by extreme weather, which [experts say has been worsened by climate...

False Alarm Summary Misguided Approaches to Climate Change

In light of the predicted costs, let’s discuss Lomborg’s evaluation of misguided approaches to climate change. First, we’ll examine broader, global approaches to climate change, and then we’ll proceed to more specific approaches.

Two Paths: Sustainable Development vs Fossil-Fueled Development

On a global scale, we can take various paths to combat climate change. According to activists, we should reduce emissions by investing in green energy and minimizing fossil fuel usage. However, Lomborg argues this approach is flawed; rather, we should increase reliance on fossil fuels to spark economic growth.

To defend this claim, Lomborg cites a 2017 study from the UN’s climate panel, which modeled “shared socioeconomic pathways” for the future—global approaches to climate change we could take in the next century. They found the two most promising pathways were the so-called Green Road and Conventional Development; the former involves reducing our environmental footprint by reducing fossil fuel consumption, while the latter sees us create strong global markets and use fossil fuels heavily to support rapid development.

(Shortform note: Although climate scientists widely...

False Alarm Summary Promising Approaches to Climate Change

Despite the abundance of misguided approaches to climate change, Lomborg argues that there are more promising approaches available. In this section, we’ll discuss his proposals, moving from broader strategies to more specific policy initiatives.

Fund Innovation

In the past, Lomborg asserts that we often solved problems via innovation—developing new approaches rather than relying on old ones. The same, he argues, is true of climate change: We should invest in innovative solutions to climate change. In particular, he advocates for innovative approaches to energy storage, nuclear energy, carbon capture technology, and geoengineering.

First, Lomborg notes that solar and wind energy are constrained by the weather: Solar panels only generate energy when the sun shines, and wind turbines only generate energy when the wind blows. If we could efficiently store this energy, wind and solar could play a larger part in our energy usage. Presently, however, this storage is prohibitively expensive—adding storage to solar panels more than triples their cost. For this reason, Lomborg concludes that **investing in developing new energy storage solutions could yield high...

Shortform Exercise: Assess Innovative Approaches to Climate Change

Lomborg proposes a variety of innovative approaches to climate change: investing in energy storage, nuclear energy, air capture technology, and geoengineering. In this exercise, evaluate these strategies for mitigating climate change.

Which of Lomborg’s innovative approaches to climate change do you find most promising? Why do you think this approach has potential?