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How to Get Lucky in Life and Take Smarter Risks

By Mark Manson

What is luck, and can you develop it? Mark Manson and Drew Birnie explore the concept of luck on The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck Podcast. They suggest that luck comes from managing risk and embracing opportunities. The hosts discuss strategies for evaluating and taking calculated risks, like looking for scenarios with an asymmetric risk/reward ratio and adopting a "fail fast, fail often" mentality.

Manson and Birnie also delve into the role of mindset in dealing with life's inevitable tragedies. They advocate for facing hardships directly, finding meaning in difficult experiences, and extracting valuable lessons from failures as steps towards growth and resilience. Ultimately, the podcast posits that luck favors the proactive and that your perception can significantly shape how "lucky" you are.

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How to Get Lucky in Life and Take Smarter Risks

This is a preview of the Shortform summary of the Dec 11, 2024 episode of the The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck Podcast

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How to Get Lucky in Life and Take Smarter Risks

1-Page Summary

The nature and perception of luck

Luck involves risk management and embracing opportunities

Mark Manson suggests luck relates to risk management: You can increase the odds of positive outcomes by engaging with chance and putting yourself in situations that create opportunities. Perceiving luck as random or stable reflects different belief systems.

Influencing "luck" through actions and mindset

Manson notes that saying yes to social events increases the probability of lucky connections. Drew Birnie introduces counterfactual thinking: Imagining worse scenarios can enhance one's perception of luck and cultivate gratitude.

Strategies for managing and taking on risk

Analyzing risk through numerical probabilities and qualitative factors

Per Manson, evaluating risk involves calculating potential outcomes analytically while also considering intangible emotional costs and benefits qualitatively.

Identifying asymmetric risk/reward scenarios to justify taking bigger risks

Manson highlights that high potential upsides can justify taking on bigger risks, like the minor downside of writing a book compared to its bestselling upside.

Adopting a "fail fast, fail often" mentality

Manson and Birnie emphasize taking numerous chances and learning from failures. True risk-taking means repeated attempts to achieve meaningful success.

The benefits of a positive, growth-oriented mindset

Accepting life's inevitable tragedies and facing them directly

Manson advises accepting painful events as unavoidable parts of life and facing them head-on, rather than avoiding them.

Finding meaning and growth in difficult experiences

While tragedies bring pain, Manson notes that the narrative we create around them, not the events themselves, is where resilience and growth emerge.

Extracting valuable lessons from failures

Failing can result in personal growth, per Manson. He argues developing the ability to derive power from tragic events is invaluable.

1-Page Summary

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Counterfactual thinking involves imagining alternative scenarios to past events, exploring how things could have unfolded differently. It often includes thoughts like "What if?" or "If only..." and can lead to considering better or worse outcomes than what actually occurred. This type of thinking can evoke negative emotions but also offer insights and lessons for personal growth and decision-making. Counterfactual thoughts can help individuals reflect on past experiences and consider different paths for future actions.
  • Asymmetric risk/reward scenarios involve situations where the potential benefits significantly outweigh the potential downsides. This concept suggests that taking on larger risks can be justified when the potential rewards are substantial in comparison. It's about seeking opportunities where the upside is much greater than the downside, allowing for a calculated approach to risk-taking.
  • The "fail fast, fail often" mentality encourages taking risks and embracing failure as a natural part of the learning process. It emphasizes the importance of quickly trying new ideas, learning from mistakes, and iterating rapidly to improve outcomes. This approach values experimentation and resilience, pushing individuals to move past setbacks and continuously strive for growth and success. By embracing failure as a stepping stone to success, individuals can develop a mindset that fosters innovation and personal development.

Counterarguments

  • Luck may not always be within one's control, and risk management strategies might not significantly influence it.
  • Saying yes to social events could lead to overcommitment and burnout, which might negate potential "lucky" connections.
  • Counterfactual thinking, while sometimes beneficial, can also lead to discontent and an inability to appreciate the present.
  • Evaluating risk solely through numerical probabilities and qualitative factors might overlook the complexity of human decision-making, which can be influenced by biases and emotions.
  • Asymmetric risk/reward scenarios might encourage excessive risk-taking, which can lead to significant losses or negative consequences.
  • The "fail fast, fail often" mentality may not be suitable for all individuals or contexts, particularly where the cost of failure is high.
  • While facing life's tragedies directly is generally sound advice, some individuals may require more time or support to process events before confronting them.
  • Finding meaning in difficult experiences is not always possible, and the pressure to do so can invalidate genuine feelings of loss or trauma.
  • Learning from failures is beneficial, but it is also important to recognize that not all failures yield clear lessons or opportunities for growth.

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How to Get Lucky in Life and Take Smarter Risks

The nature and perception of luck

Luck often sparks debate about whether it is a force of chance or something we can influence. Mark Manson and Drew Birnie offer insights into the psychological and behavioral aspects of luck, suggesting it intertwines with risk management, perspective, and opportunity.

Luck is not just about "good" or "bad" things happening by chance, but rather the result of risk management and embracing opportunities.

Perceiving luck as a stable or random force in one's life reflects different belief systems, with the more rational view being that luck is largely chance-based.

Manson suggests luck relates to risk management and notes that you can increase the odds of good things happening. On the flip side, individuals can position themselves in situations with increased chances of negative outcomes. He argues that situations viewed as safe or stable may still carry risks and potential opportunities. Engaging with chance, according to Manson, can make people more "lucky" by increasing their exposure to potential opportunities.

People can influence their "luck" by putting themselves in situations that increase the odds of positive or negative outcomes.

Manson discusses creating "more surface area for opportunities to happen" as a method to increase one's odds of experiencing positive outcomes, which he equates with getting lucky. Actions like meeting new people and trying new activities can lead to significant opportunities. Manson notes that saying yes to social events increases the probability of positive outcomes, such as meeting a significant other or making valuable connections.

Reframing setbacks in a more constructive light, through downward counterfactual thinking, can enhance one's perception of luck and foster gratitude.

Birnie introduces the concept of counterfactual thinking—considering upward or downward scenarios. Downward counterfactual thinking involves imagining how situations could be worse, which can enhance one's perception of luck and foster a sense ...

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The nature and perception of luck

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Counterfactual thinking involves imagining alternative outcomes to past events. Downward counterfactual thinking specifically focuses on considering how situations could have been worse, leading to a sense of gratitude and a perception of luck. This type of thinking involves reflecting on negative outcomes that did not happen, which can help individuals appreciate their current circumstances and feel fortunate. It is a cognitive process that can enhance one's perspective on luck and foster a positive mindset.
  • "Zooming out and recontextualizing situations" involves taking a broader perspective on a specific event or circumstance. It means stepping back mentally to see the bigger picture and considering the context in which the situation occurred. This process helps in gaining a more comprehensive understanding of the event, which can lead to a shift in perception or interpretation towards a more positive or balanced outlook. By zooming out and recontextualizing, individuals can often find new insights, solutions, or ways to cope with challenges effecti ...

Counterarguments

  • Luck as a product of risk management may oversimplify the complexity of chance events and ignore the role of uncontrollable external factors.
  • The belief that individuals can significantly influence luck may lead to victim-blaming, where people who experience misfortune are held responsible for their "bad luck."
  • The concept of increasing "luck" by seeking opportunities can be limited by socioeconomic factors that restrict an individual's ability to access or create such situations.
  • Downward counterfactual thinking, while potentially beneficial for gratitude, might also lead to complacency or a lack of ambition to improve one's circumstances.
  • Imagining worse scenarios as a coping mechanism ...

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How to Get Lucky in Life and Take Smarter Risks

Strategies for managing and taking on risk

Managing and taking on risks are important components of personal development and can result in significant advantages for those willing to step up to the challenge. Manson and Birnie explore how to approach and manage risk effectively by blending analytical methods with qualitative considerations and adopting a mindset geared towards learning and growth.

Approaching risk decisions through a combination of analytical and qualitative analysis, considering both the numerical probabilities as well as the intangible costs and benefits

Mark Manson highlights the importance of approaching risk through both analytical evaluation and qualitative assessment. Analytically, one might write down numbers, evaluate potential upsides and downsides, assess the probability of various outcomes, and calculate expected value, particularly when monetary stakes are involved.

Qualitatively, Manson emphasizes the need to consider intangible factors such as the emotional toll of unfulfilling work, dealing with disliked co-workers, or the effects of relocation on personal relationships as well as the value of experiencing novelty in life. This dual approach can help in making more informed and comprehensive risk-related decisions.

Identifying situations with asymmetric risk/reward profiles, where the potential upside vastly outweighs the downside, can justify taking on more risk

Manson points out that asymmetric risk/reward profiles, where the potential upside is significantly greater than the downside, can justify taking on more risk. He gives examples such as the minimal embarrassment of talking to an attractive stranger versus the potential of a life-changing relationship, or the minor downsides of spending two years writing "The Subtle Art" compared to the significant upside of its success.

Embracing scenarios with higher rewards than risks can be more rational and manageable, encouraging individuals to lean into opportunities with potentially drastic upsides and low downsides.

Embracing a "fail fast, fail often" mentality by taking frequent "at-bats" and learning from both successes and failures, rather than avoiding risk altogether

Manson an ...

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Strategies for managing and taking on risk

Additional Materials

Counterarguments

  • Analytical and qualitative analyses may not capture all dimensions of risk, especially in complex or unpredictable environments.
  • Numerical probabilities can be misleading if based on flawed data or assumptions, and intangible costs and benefits are often difficult to quantify or compare directly.
  • Situations with asymmetric risk/reward profiles can be rare or difficult to identify accurately, leading to missed opportunities or underestimated risks.
  • The "fail fast, fail often" mentality may not be suitable for all individuals or contexts, particularly where the consequences of failure are severe or long-lasting.
  • Frequent "at-bats" can lead to burnout or resource depletion if not managed carefully, and not all types of risks provide valuable learning opportunities.
  • Embracing opportunities with high upsides and low downsides can still lead to negative outcomes if the low downsides are underestimated or if multiple small losses accumulate.
  • While failure is inherent in many aspects of life, the cultur ...

Actionables

  • You can refine your decision-making by creating a personal risk ledger for everyday choices. Start by jotting down daily decisions that involve some level of risk, such as trying a new restaurant or investing time in learning a new skill. Next to each decision, write down the potential risks and rewards, both tangible and intangible. For example, the risk of trying a new restaurant could be wasting money on a meal you don't enjoy, while the reward could be discovering a new favorite dish or enjoying a pleasant dining experience. Over time, review this ledger to see patterns in your decision-making and adjust where you see opportunities for improvement.
  • Develop a habit of conducting mini post-mortems on your decisions to learn from both successes and failures. After you make a decision that leads to a notable outcome, take a few minutes to reflect on what went right or wrong. Write down three things you learned from the experience and how you can apply these lessons to future decisions. For instance, if you decided to speak up in a meeting and it led to a positive discussion, note why it was successful—perhaps you prepared well or chose the right moment to interject.
  • Encourage yourself to t ...

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How to Get Lucky in Life and Take Smarter Risks

The benefits of a positive, growth-oriented mindset towards setbacks and failures

Jace from YouTube, Mark Manson, and Drew Birnie discuss the inevitability of pain and tragedy in life and the importance of developing a resilient mindset that values personal growth and learning from difficult experiences.

Accepting that negative events and tragedies are an inevitable part of the human experience, and consciously choosing to face them head-on rather than avoid them.

Manson advises acceptance of life's inevitable tragedies as part of the experience of living, arguing that one should not try to avoid these adversities but instead face them head-on. He stresses that tragedies will occur regardless, and it is crucial to take the good with the bad without looking away from the difficult parts of life.

Both Birnie and Manson emphasize that awareness of the certainty of challenges is key, even during good times. They highlight that happiness is impermanent, just like difficult times, underlining that challenges are a natural and unavoidable aspect of life.

Recognizing that the meaning and narrative one creates around a traumatic event, rather than the event itself, is where personal growth and resilience can emerge.

The discussion points out that while the pain from tragedies is unavoidable, the grieving and feeling upset are part of the process and should not be rushed or avoided. Manson speaks to the importance of accepting difficult situations as a part of life, emphasizing that tragic moments can teach us what matters most and to appreciate and care for the people in our lives.

Manson also highlights that while the event itself will always be painful, the narrative one wraps around it can be made positive. He suggests that personal growth comes from the meaning we attach to our experiences, not the experiences themselves.

Developing the ability to extrac ...

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The benefits of a positive, growth-oriented mindset towards setbacks and failures

Additional Materials

Counterarguments

  • Acceptance of tragedy might not always lead to personal growth; some individuals may require professional help to cope with trauma.
  • Facing challenges head-on is not always the best approach; sometimes strategic retreat or avoidance can be a more effective way to deal with certain adversities.
  • Constant awareness of life's challenges can lead to anxiety or a pessimistic outlook, which may not be conducive to mental health for some individuals.
  • The impermanence of happiness can be a demotivating concept for some, who might benefit more from focusing on creating lasting contentment.
  • Grieving processes are highly individual, and suggesting that one should not rush through them may inadvertently pressure someone who naturally recovers more quickly.
  • Attaching positive meaning to tragic events can sometimes invalidate genuine feelings of loss and pain, which may need to be fully acknowledged and processed.
  • Not all difficult experiences yield valuable lessons or increased perspective; some may result in long-term negative consequences without apparent benefits.
  • Viewing f ...

Actionables

  • You can create a "Challenge Journal" to document and reflect on daily challenges, noting how you addressed them and what you learned. This practice encourages proactive engagement with difficulties and fosters a mindset of growth. For example, if you faced a tough conversation at work, write down how you approached it, the outcome, and any insights gained about communication or conflict resolution.
  • Develop a personal ritual for processing grief or setbacks, such as a solitary walk or writing a letter to yourself about the experience. This allows you to honor your emotions while also consciously moving towards acceptance and finding meaning. If you experience a loss, your ritual might involve walking through a park to reflect on the memories and lessons that person or situation brought into your life.
  • Start a "Risk-Taking Challenge" where y ...

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