A Guide to Election Night 2024
In this episode of The Daily, Michael Barbaro and Nate Cohn explore potential scenarios for Election Night 2024. They outline the paths to victory for either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, as well as the possibility of another prolonged, close election with razor-thin margins in key battleground states.
The regional timelines for reporting results are examined, highlighting how the South could provide an early indication of the outcome, while states like Pennsylvania may face significant delays in finalizing vote tallies. The discussion also delves into the pivotal role of swing states like Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania in shaping the narrative and perceptions as the night unfolds.
This is a preview of the Shortform summary of the Nov 5, 2024 episode of the The Daily
Sign up for Shortform to access the whole episode summary along with additional materials like counterarguments and context.
1-Page Summary
Potential Election Night Scenarios
As discussed by Michael Barbaro and Nate Cohn, there are three plausible election night scenarios: a decisive victory for either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, or a close and prolonged outcome.
Harris Victory
In a Harris victory scenario, she would decisively win the popular vote and key battleground states like North Carolina and Georgia, signaling a shift away from Trump's populist realignment, according to Cohn.
Trump Victory
A Trump victory, as outlined by Cohn, would involve winning the popular vote powered by increased support across demographics. He would need to take Georgia, North Carolina, and potentially make inroads in Democratic strongholds like Virginia.
Close Election
The final scenario described is another close result with razor-thin margins in swing states, potentially lasting days or weeks as mail ballots are tallied. Southern states could remain undecided late into the night.
Regional Vote Counting Timelines
The South will report results quickly on election night, with North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Virginia able to process mail ballots early and provide a potential picture of the overall outcome by midnight.
The Midwest "Blue Wall" battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin will follow, though Pennsylvania's full count could significantly lag due to mail ballot restrictions.
Western states like Arizona, Nevada, and California will be the slowest to report final counts, taking days or even weeks in some cases due to heavy use of mail ballots and complex procedures.
The Pivotal Role of Swing States
Outcomes in Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania hold major significance in determining the path to an electoral college victory for either candidate.
As Cohn explains, a Harris loss in Georgia and North Carolina would make her path very narrow, needing to sweep Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Conversely, those two states are critical to keeping Trump's chances viable.
Pennsylvania in particular is crucial, with its delayed mail ballot processing potentially deferring certainty on the winner for days after election night.
Shaping Perceptions Through Early Vote Tallies
A potential "red mirage" where Trump initially appears ahead on election night from in-person votes could enable him to declare premature victory and sow doubts about legitimacy.
As more mail ballots favoring Democrats are processed later, the results could shift towards Harris, possibly fueling Trump's unsubstantiated claims of fraud.
1-Page Summary
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- The assumption that a Harris victory would signal a shift away from Trump's realignment may be too simplistic, as election outcomes can be influenced by a variety of factors beyond a shift in political alignment, such as economic conditions, campaign strategies, or specific events leading up to the election.
- The idea that Trump would need to win the popular vote to secure a victory may not necessarily hold true, given the structure of the Electoral College, where it is possible to win the presidency without winning the popular vote, as seen in previous elections.
- The scenario of a close election with razor-thin margins may not account for the possibility of third-party candidates influencing the outcome in swing states, which could either draw votes away from the main candidates or potentially lead to a more decisive outcome.
- The expectation that the South will report results quickly might not consider unexpected delays such as technical issues, legal challenges, or other unforeseen events that could slow down the counting process.
- The prediction that Pennsylvania's full count could significantly lag might be overly pessimistic, as election officials may have taken steps to improve the efficiency of mail ballot processing since the last election.
- The focus on Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania as pivotal states may overlook the potential impact of other states that could also be competitive and influence the overall outcome of the election.
- The concept of a "red mirage" assumes that in-person votes will disproportionately favor Trump and that mail ballots will skew towards Harris, which may not take into account changes in voting behavior or the effectiveness of each campaign's get-out-the-vote efforts among different types of voters.
- The suggestion that mail ballots could shift results towards Harris and fuel Trump's claims of fraud presupposes that the late-counted votes will significantly favor one candidate, which may not be the case if the mail ballot demographics are more evenly distributed or if there is a high turnout among all voting methods.
Actionables
- You can enhance your critical thinking by simulating your own election outcomes using available data and trends. Start by gathering recent polling and demographic data, then create a simple spreadsheet where you input different variables such as voter turnout rates, demographic shifts, and mail-in ballot counts. Adjust these variables to see how they could affect the overall election outcome in key battleground states. This exercise will help you understand the dynamics of electoral processes and the impact of different factors on election results.
- Develop a habit of media literacy by analyzing how different news outlets report on election night results. Choose a diverse range of media sources and take notes on how they report early results versus final outcomes, particularly in states with heavy mail-in ballots. This will help you discern patterns in media reporting, understand potential biases, and become more informed about the nuances of election coverage.
- Engage in community education by creating a simple, informative guide on the election process for your local community or social network. Focus on explaining why some states report results faster than others and the significance of swing states in the electoral college. Use clear, non-partisan language and distribute your guide through social media, email, or community bulletin boards. This will help others in your community become more informed voters and understand the complexities of the election process.
Get access to the context and additional materials
Potential election night scenarios and outcomes
The United States is faced with three plausible scenarios for the upcoming election night: a decisive victory for Kamala Harris, a decisive victory for Donald Trump, or a close and potentially prolonged election outcome.
Decisive victory for Kamala Harris
One possible outcome is a decisive victory for Kamala Harris. In this scenario, Harris wins the popular vote decisively and sweeps battleground states such as North Carolina and Georgia from the start. A comfortable victory in Virginia, along with competitiveness in Florida, may indicate a strong repudiation of Trump and signify a shift away from the populist realignment he sparked in 2016. This scenario represents Harris’s clear repudiation of Trump's policies and influence.
Decisive victory for Donald Trump
Another scenario is a decisive victory for Donald Trump. In this realignment scenario, Trump would win the popular vote, becoming the first Republican to do so since 2004. His victory would be powered by a wave of support not just from the white working-class but also from Black, Hispanic, and young working-class voters. Such a scenario would see Trump making early wins in battleground states like Georgia and North Carolina, and possibly even leading to a landslide victory in Florida. A much tighter race in Virginia than Democrats would have hoped for may also indicate a realignment of voters in Trump's favor.
Close and grinding election result
The final scenario, as mentioned by Nate Cohn, is another tight and grinding election. Swing states could be deci ...
Here’s what you’ll find in our full summary
Potential election night scenarios and outcomes
Additional Materials
Clarifications
- The "populist realignment" sparked by Trump in 2016 refers to a shift in American politics characterized by a focus on issues affecting the working class, anti-establishment sentiments, and a rejection of traditional political norms. Trump's campaign resonated with voters who felt marginalized by the political elite and sought change in areas like trade, immigration, and economic policies. This realignment saw Trump appealing to a broader base beyond traditional Republican demographics, tapping into discontent and a desire for a different approach to governance.
- Detailed county-by-county analysis of election day turnout involves examining the voter turnout data at a granular level, looking specifically at how many voters in each county participated in the election. This analysis helps to understand the voting patterns and preferences of different regions within a state, providing insights into which candidate is gaining support in which areas. By dissecting the turnout data by county, analysts can identify trends, strengths, and weaknesses in each candidate's support base, which is crucial for predicting election outcomes accurately. This level of scrutiny is especially important in closely contested elections where every vote counts, and understanding the nuances of local voter behavior can make a significant difference in determining the final result.
- Nate Cohn's reference to a "tight and grinding el ...
Counterarguments
- The assumption that a decisive victory for Kamala Harris would signify a clear repudiation of Trump's policies may not account for other factors that could influence voter behavior, such as economic conditions or specific campaign issues.
- The idea that a decisive victory for Donald Trump would indicate a realignment of voter demographics may overlook the complexity of voter motivations and the possibility that such a shift could be temporary or issue-specific rather than a long-term realignment.
- Suggesting that a close and prolonged election result is a certainty underestimates the efficiency of some state election systems that have improved their mail-in ballot processing and could deliver faster results than expected.
- The scenarios presented may not consider the impact of third-party candidates or external events that could significantly alter the election landscape in unforeseen ways.
- The ...
Get access to the context and additional materials
The timeline and process of vote counting across different regions
The vote counting process in the United States varies significantly from region to region, with some areas reporting results quickly while others take days or even weeks to finalize counts. This process can greatly affect perceptions on election night, and potentially fuel controversies regarding the outcome.
The first wave of voting results will come from the South, where polls close earliest and states tend to count votes more quickly.
Michael Barbaro and Nate Cohn discuss the speed with which southern states like North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Virginia are able to count mail-in ballots quickly after polls close. Cohn explains that these states might report results swiftly, leading to possible race calls by midnight even in relatively close elections. This early tallying process could indicate whether the night might result in a Harris blowout, a Trump landslide, or a close contest. The pace in the South is attributed to differences in state laws and procedures that permit the processing of mail ballots before Election Day.
The next phase of results will come from the Midwest "Blue Wall" states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
In contrast to the South, northern battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin have laws that restrict when mail ballots can be processed and opened, causing delays. Cohn expects these states to provide results potentially by the early morning after the election, except for Pennsylvania, where the counting could take much longer. This could lead to scenarios where Trump appears to be leading on election night, only for the situation to change as mail-in ballots are counted—a phenomenon known as the "red mirage."
The final set of results will come from ...
Here’s what you’ll find in our full summary
The timeline and process of vote counting across different regions
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- The characterization of the "red mirage" could be seen as presumptive, as it assumes that late-counted mail-in ballots will predominantly favor one party over the other, which may not always be the case.
- The text implies that delayed results are inherently problematic, but one could argue that ensuring accuracy is more important than speed when it comes to counting votes.
- The assertion that southern states count votes more quickly could be challenged by pointing out that speed does not necessarily equate to efficiency or accuracy, and that each state has its own unique challenges that could affect the counting process.
- The idea that delayed results from Western states could support claims of election fraud might be misleading, as it does not take into account the legitimate reasons for slower counting, such as ensuring the inclusion of all valid vo ...
Actionables
- You can educate your social circle about the vote counting process by sharing simplified infographics that explain the different timelines and procedures across states. Create a visual guide using free online tools like Canva, which breaks down the key points about how and why some states count votes faster than others. Share these infographics on social media or in group chats to help friends and family understand the complexities of the election process and set realistic expectations for election night.
- Enhance your critical thinking by practicing scenario analysis based on the vote counting timelines. Write down different election night scenarios, such as what might happen if early results favor one candidate, and then consider how the situation could change as more mail-in ballots are counted. This exercise can help you prepare mentally for the shifts in reported outcomes and reduce susceptibility to misinformation.
- Develop a personal strategy to manage election st ...
Get access to the context and additional materials
The role of swing states and early vote tallies in shaping perceptions of the results
The outcomes in pivotal swing states like Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania are set to play a decisive role in determining the winner of the election.
The outcomes in key swing states like Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania will be crucial in determining the overall winner.
Cohn indicates the electoral stakes in swing states, mentioning that Kamala Harris's campaign would face a narrow path to victory if she fails to clinch North Carolina and Georgia. She would need a sweep of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin or a surprise win in Arizona to secure an electoral college majority. For Donald Trump, losing North Carolina and Georgia would severely hamper his chances, necessitating that he sweep the northern states, areas where his polling is weaker.
If Harris wins North Carolina and Georgia, it would greatly narrow Trump's path to victory, while a Trump sweep of those states would put significant pressure on Harris to run the table in the Midwest.
Cohn points out that Trump's victory in Georgia and North Carolina would pressure Harris to win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to secure a majority in the electoral college.
Pennsylvania in particular may hold the keys to the election, as its slow vote counting process could delay a final determination of the winner for days.
Barbaro and Cohn discuss the potential delay in ballot counting, particularly in states like Pennsylvania, that could give an incomplete picture of the election results on election night due to the state's slow vote counting process.
Early vote tallies, especially the balance between in-person Election Day votes and mail ballots, will shape the initial perception of the results.
The hosts elaborate on how the dynamics of in-person Election Day votes, contrasted with mail ballots, can heavily influence the perceived front-runner before all votes are tallied.
A "red mirage" where Trump appears to be leading on election night due to the faster counting of in-person votes could give him an ...
Here’s what you’ll find in our full summary
The role of swing states and early vote tallies in shaping perceptions of the results
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- While swing states are important, the overall national mood and broader electoral trends can also significantly influence the election outcome.
- It's possible for a candidate to lose in key swing states but still win the election through a combination of other states' electoral votes.
- The importance of Pennsylvania may be overstated if other states report their results more quickly and decisively.
- Early vote tallies might not be as influential on public perception if the electorate is educated about the expected vote counting timeline and potential shifts in apparent leads.
- The concept of a "red mirage" or similar phenomena could be mitigated by responsible media ...
Actionables
- You can enhance your understanding of election dynamics by tracking the voting patterns in swing states during live election coverage, noting shifts and trends that align with the podcast's assertions.
- Doing this will give you a hands-on feel for how pivotal states impact the election outcome. For example, as results come in, create a simple spreadsheet or even use a paper map to color in states based on the incoming results, which will help you visualize the importance of each state's vote count.
- Engage in constructive conversations with peers about the implications of early vote tallies and the potential for a "red mirage" by sharing insights on how initial perceptions can be misleading.
- This encourages critical thinking and awareness about the electoral process. For instance, during an election night gathering, initiate a discussion about how the early results might not reflect the final outcome, using the concept of the "red mirage" to illustrate the point.
- Prepare for post-election disc ...
Get access to the context and additional materials
Create Summaries for anything on the web
Download the Shortform Chrome extension for your browser
