19 Days to Go: Early Voting, Dance Parties and Third Parties
With only 19 days until the election, "The Daily" explores the strategies and dynamics driving the final stretch of the campaign. The episode delves into the erratic behavior of Donald Trump on the trail, contrasted with Kamala Harris's targeted appeals to Black male voters. It also examines both parties' efforts to mobilize minority groups and concerns about third-party "spoilers," as well as the push for early voting and the contentious issue of election integrity.
At the heart of the episode lies a deeper examination of voter sentiment, ranging from Trump supporters exclusively trusting his victory to concerns that a tight race could be "rigged." The discussion provides a multifaceted look at the key factors shaping the campaigns' approaches and the narratives surrounding the integrity of the electoral process.
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1-Page Summary
Candidate behaviors and campaign strategies
Trump's erratic campaign behavior raises concerns
Michael Barbaro notes Donald Trump's unconventional conduct on the campaign trail, like spending nearly 40 minutes playing music and dancing at a recent town hall. Barbaro and Vice President Harris suggest Trump's rhetoric about using military force against opponents shows he is unstable and unfit for office.
Harris targets Black male voters
Kamala Harris has directly appealed to Black men through targeted appearances and ads acknowledging sexism concerns. She proposes policies like housing assistance while balancing her broader appeal to avoid alienating other groups, as Barack Obama notes.
Racial dynamics and voter targeting
Republicans court minority voters
The Trump campaign operates "Trump Force 47" to mobilize Black and Latino low-propensity voters. Voters like Julia and Sean Banks feel Democrats take their support for granted and are drawn to Trump's populism, despite critiques of his brashness.
Democrats wary of third-party "spoilers"
In swing states, Democrats worry third-party candidates could siphon Harris votes, campaigning against figures like Jill Stein and Cornel West as potential "spoilers."
Early voting and election integrity
Republicans embrace early voting
After 2020 fraud claims, Republicans heavily promoted early voting to "bank" votes, reflecting distrust in electoral processes. Supporters like Jay Wilson aim to "outvote cheating," while Representative Jordan Ridley touts early voting's mechanical advantage.
Some Republicans only trust Trump victories
Certain Trump backers express explicit distrust, saying they'll only accept his victory, raising concerns over outcome legitimacy if he loses. Trump himself references needing a "landslide too big to rig."
Democrats also push early voting
Record Georgia early voting turnout shows high enthusiasm across parties. Astead Herndon suggests this allows campaigns to refocus efforts on persuading remaining undecideds before Election Day.
1-Page Summary
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- Trump's campaign behavior, while unconventional, could be seen as a strategy to energize his base and differentiate himself from traditional politicians, which has been effective for him in the past.
- Harris's targeted approach to Black male voters could be criticized for being too narrow and potentially overlooking the diverse concerns within the broader Black community.
- The Republican efforts to court minority voters could be viewed as a positive step towards addressing the needs of these communities and expanding the party's base, rather than just taking votes for granted.
- Concerns about third-party candidates being "spoilers" may overlook the democratic principle that voters should have the freedom to choose the candidate they feel best represents their views, regardless of the candidate's perceived chances of winning.
- The promotion of early voting by Republicans could be interpreted as a pragmatic adaptation to the current political climate and an acknowledgment of the importance of voter participation.
- The stance of some Republicans who will only trust a Trump victory could be challenged by emphasizing the importance of faith in the democratic process and the need for evidence-based assessments of election outcomes.
- The high turnout for early voting among Democrats could be critiqued if it leads to complacency in the final days before the election, potentially diminishing the urgency to get out the vote on Election Day.
Actionables
- You can enhance your understanding of political strategies by observing local campaigns to see how they engage with different voter demographics. Watch for how local candidates address specific communities and compare that with broader messaging tactics. For example, attend a town hall meeting and note if the candidate has tailored messages for certain groups or if they're using a one-size-fits-all approach.
- Develop critical thinking by analyzing political claims and promises for feasibility and impact. When you hear a politician make a promise, do some research to understand the implications and practicality of that promise. For instance, if a candidate pledges to improve public transportation, look into the current state of infrastructure and budget to assess how realistic the promise is.
- Practice informed voting by creating a personal checklist of criteria that align with your values and concerns. Before an election, list out what matters most to you, such as economic policies, social issues, or leadership qualities, and use this to evaluate candidates beyond party lines. When it's time to vote, use your checklist to guide your decision, ensuring it's based on a comprehensive understanding of the candidates' platforms and behaviors.
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Candidate behaviors and campaign strategies
The behavior of candidates on the campaign trail and their strategies to win over voters come under scrutiny with Donald Trump's unpredictable conduct raising questions about his fitness for office, while Kamala Harris focuses on gaining the support of specific demographics.
Trump's erratic and concerning behavior on the campaign trail raises questions about his fitness for office
During a recent town hall in Oaks, Pennsylvania, Donald Trump demonstrated a more relaxed style that some see as lacking the usual discipline and seriousness expected of a presidential candidate. He spent nearly 40 minutes playing music and dancing with Kristi Noem, which included fist pumps and hand waves. Michael Barbaro observes that such behavior, especially in the final stretch of a tight campaign, is unconventional compared to past or potential future presidents.
Trump's behavior at a recent town hall event where he spent nearly 40 minutes playing music and dancing
At the Pennsylvania town hall, Trump's unusual interlude of almost 40 minutes to play music from his Spotify list deviated from typical town hall conventions.
Trump has also made alarming statements suggesting he would use the military or National Guard to target his political opponents
Trump’s suggestion of employing the military or National Guard to take action against liberal adversaries, including members of Congress, has raised alarm. This rhetoric, central to Trump's messaging, undermines the American principle that government power should not be wielded to pursue political enemies. Vice President Harris, during a Fox News interview, described Trump as unstable and unfit for the presidency, citing instances where he spoke of using military force against peaceful protesters and incarcerating those who disagree with him.
Harris is pursuing a targeted strategy to appeal to specific voter groups, particularly Black men, who have been underperforming for Democrats
Kamala Harris adopts a strategic approach to attract specific voter segments, particularly Black men, by acknowledging their concerns about sexism and addressing them directly with policy proposals.
Harris has made multiple appearances and released ads directly addressing Black male voters
Harris has targeted Black male voters through various appearances such as on The Breakfast Club and radio int ...
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Candidate behaviors and campaign strategies
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- Trump's behavior at town hall events, such as playing music and dancing, could be seen as a strategy to humanize the candidate and make him more relatable to voters who appreciate a less formal approach.
- The use of the military or National Guard could be argued as a strong stance on law and order, which might resonate with voters concerned about security and stability, rather than an intention to target political opponents.
- Harris's targeted strategy to appeal to specific voter groups like Black men could be criticized for potentially being too narrow and not addressing the broader concerns of all voters.
- While Harris has made efforts to address Black male voters, some might argue that her policies and appearances could still be perceived as pandering or not sufficiently addressing the systemic issues faced by the demographic.
- The $25,000 down payment assistance for first-time home buyers might be criticized for its potential to inflate housing prices or for not being a sustainable long-term solution to housing affordability.
- Harris's careful balance in not alienating other key constituencies could be seen as a lack of commitment to the specifi ...
Actionables
- You can enhance your cultural awareness by attending local community events that celebrate different cultures, which will help you understand the diverse perspectives within your community. For example, if there's a cultural festival or a speaking event by a community leader, make it a point to attend, listen, and engage with the participants to gain a deeper understanding of their experiences and viewpoints.
- Start a personal project where you create a playlist of songs from various genres and eras, then share it with friends or on social media to encourage discussions about music's role in cultural expression and historical events. This could lead to conversations about how music reflects societal changes and personal experiences, similar to how a public figure might use music to connect with an audience. ...
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Racial dynamics and voter targeting
The political landscape shows Republicans making strategic moves to appeal to minority voters, while Democrats are on the defensive about third-party candidacies.
Republicans are making concerted efforts to appeal to minority voters, particularly Black men, who have traditionally leaned Democratic
Republicans are increasingly targeting Black and Latino men for outreach. For example, Trump's campaign operates "Trump Force 47," a program aiming to mobilize low-propensity voters, a group that includes many Black and Latino individuals. Captains of this initiative, such as Jay Wilson and Lori Wood, have been active, with Wood knocking on a thousand doors and making over a thousand phone calls.
Some Black Republican voters like Julia and Sean Banks feel that the Democratic Party takes their support for granted. Drawn to Trump's anti-establishment messaging, Julia and Sean Banks have fluctuated between political parties in past elections. They convey a sense of disenchantment with the Democratic Party, with Julia Banks feeling betrayed by Obama's stance on gay marriage and Sean Banks suggesting Democrats offer short-term benefits to ensure the black vote.
Additionally, the Banks express strong opinions about traditional gender roles and the appearance of strength in political figures, seemingly attracted to Trump's brash, direct style. They also discredit Kamala Harris's qualifications, insisting that their reservations are based on policy, not race or gender.
The Trump campaign is operating a program called "Trump Force 47" to mobilize low-propensity voters, including many Black and Latino supporters
"Trump Force 47" is an organizing program rooted in the belief that there's untapped support for Trump among minority voters. The Trump campaign in Georgia focuses on polling showing Trump doing better than expected among these groups, potentially giving him an edge in battleground states. The program involves intensive outreach like phone banking and door-knocking campaigns.
Some Black Republican voters, like Julia and Sean Banks, feel the Democratic Party has taken their support for granted and are drawn to Trump's populist, anti-establishment message
The Banks' narrative illustrates a growing sentiment among some Black voters that the Democratic Party assumes their vote without addressing their concerns. This feeling of being overlooked has led to a shift toward Trump, who they view as a disruptor capable of enacting change.
There are concerns that third-party candidacie ...
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Racial dynamics and voter targeting
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- Republicans may be targeting minority voters, but it's important to scrutinize whether these efforts are substantive or merely symbolic, and if they address the systemic issues affecting these communities.
- The perception that the Democratic Party takes the support of Black voters for granted could be countered by highlighting policy initiatives and platforms aimed at addressing the concerns of these communities.
- The effectiveness of "Trump Force 47" in actually mobilizing low-propensity voters could be questioned, as voter turnout is influenced by a complex set of factors beyond direct outreach.
- The narrative of disenchantment with the Democratic Party among Black voters like the Banks may not represent the broader sentiment of the Black community, which has historically and consistently leaned Democratic for various policy and ideological reasons.
- The concern about third-party candidacies siphoning votes could be met with the argument that a healthy democracy should encourage a plurality ...
Actionables
- You can deepen your understanding of political strategies by observing local campaigns to see how they engage with different voter demographics. Take note of the messaging used and the platforms where these messages are shared, then compare these observations with national strategies to identify common techniques and unique approaches.
- Enhance your critical thinking skills by analyzing the impact of third-party candidates in historical elections. Research past election results in your state to see where third-party candidates have had significant influence, and use this information to inform your voting decisions in future elections.
- Improve your political advocacy by s ...
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Early voting and election integrity
The 2020 election has intensified focus on the importance of early voting for Republicans and Democrats, invoking questions about voter fraud and the legitimacy of the electoral process.
The 2020 election and concerns about voter fraud have heightened Republican focus on early voting this cycle
In the aftermath of the contentious 2020 election, Republicans are emphasizing early voting like never before. The Trump campaign highlighted the concept of "banking" votes to ensure supporters vote early. This seemingly paradoxical approach arises from a distrust in the electoral process, particularly concerning "fraudulent ballots."
Jay Wilson, actively encouraging voter registration in his community, reflects this sentiment, aiming to outvote what is perceived by some Republicans as a margin of cheating. This year saw initiatives to increase early voting among Republicans, allowing campaigns to focus their efforts on those who haven't yet voted on Election Day.
State Representative Jordan Ridley, and other Republican figures, reinforce this strategy due to the mechanical advantage early voting provides. This heyday of early voter turnout is part of a concerted effort to ensure a robust Republican presence at the polls, reflecting enthusiasm for Republican candidates.
Republicans are encouraging their supporters to vote early, seeing it as a way to "bank" votes and focus their get-out-the-vote efforts on Election Day
Shane Goldmacher mentions that despite Donald Trump's previous criticism of early voting, Republicans, including Trump, now back the practice. At rallies in states like Georgia, Trump has urged his base to vote early, underlining the significance of the vote and warning against taking risks with the country's future.
Certain voters have expressed explicit distrust toward the electoral process, with some citing skepticism of Dominion voting machines and believing it difficult to trust outcomes should the same systems be used. Lori Wood's reference to uncertainties surrounding the events of January 6th adds to the skepticism.
There's a marked concern about the transparency and integrity of the election process, particularly after the 2020 elections, which some voters describe as chaotic and disastrous. This viewpoint is typified by a Georgian who deems voter integrity as paramount and a reason for emphasizing early voting as the way forward.
Some Republican voters express distrust in the electoral process and say they will only trust a Trump victory, raising concerns about the legitimacy of the outcome if he loses
Subtle and explicit expressions of distrust in the electoral p ...
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Early voting and election integrity
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- Republicans' emphasis on early voting might not solely be a response to concerns about voter fraud but also a strategic adaptation to changing voter behaviors and the recognition of the benefits of early vote mobilization.
- The concept of "banking" votes could be seen as a pragmatic approach to campaigning, ensuring that a candidate's supporters have voted, which is a common practice in political campaigns, not necessarily tied to distrust in the electoral process.
- Encouraging voter registration and participation is a fundamental aspect of a healthy democracy and does not inherently suggest an attempt to counteract cheating.
- The mechanical advantage of early voting is not exclusive to Republicans; it is a tactic that can be utilized by any party to secure votes ahead of Election Day.
- The support for early voting by Republicans, including Trump, may reflect an evolution in strategy rather than a contradiction of previous positions, as political strategies often change in response to the current political climate.
- Expressing distrust in the electoral process without substantial evidence can undermine democratic institutions and may not reflect the views of the majority of voters within any party.
- Democrats' emphasis on early voting is simi ...
Actionables
- You can educate yourself on the early voting process in your area to ensure you're prepared to vote confidently. Start by visiting your state or local election office's website to find out the specifics of early voting, such as locations, times, and any necessary identification. This knowledge will help you navigate the process smoothly and also allow you to assist friends or family members who may have questions about early voting.
- Create a personal voting plan that includes when and where you'll vote, whether it's early or on Election Day. Write down the date you plan to vote, the location of your polling place, and how you'll get there. If you're voting early, set reminders for yourself so you don't miss the early voting period. Having a plan increases the likelihood that you'll follow through and makes the voting process less daunting.
- Encourage open discussions about voting within your social circle to pr ...
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