The New Hope, and New Worry, of Kamala Harris
In this episode of The Daily, norms surrounding the Democratic party's presidential nomination process are examined. Political analyst Nate Cohn weighs Kamala Harris's electability and discusses concerns about her ability to appeal to a broad national audience beyond the Democratic base.
The episode also explores the strategic considerations behind the party's apparent eagerness to unite around Harris's candidacy. Cohn sheds light on the lack of viable challengers and raises questions about the party's internal dynamics and responsiveness to voters amid signs of dissatisfaction with the Biden administration.
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Kamala Harris's electability and viability as a Democratic nominee
Nate Cohn raises concerns about Kamala Harris's electability and ability to defeat Trump. While Harris enters as a relatively stronger candidate than Biden, her unfavorable ratings and trailing numbers against Trump in key polls suggest she may not be as electable as party leaders believe. Cohn notes that Harris's background and past campaigns have exposed potential weaknesses in appealing to broad national audiences beyond her Democratic base.
According to Cohn, Harris's political path in the San Francisco Bay Area and a perceived lack of authenticity in her messaging may have hurt her ability to connect with swing voters. Additionally, her tenure as VP has not bolstered perceptions of her effectiveness on key issues like immigration and voting rights, which could impact voter confidence.
The Democratic party's strategic considerations in supporting Harris's nomination
While the Democratic party has recently favored nominating moderate, broadly acceptable candidates to appeal to swing voters post-2016, Cohn indicates the party now seems eager to unite behind Harris. Party leaders believe Harris's background as a prosecutor and forceful communication style position her to aggressively prosecute the case against Trump on issues like abortion rights.
In her first campaign speech, Harris took a direct stance against Trump, showcasing her abilities as a prosecutor that the party believes can frame the election as a clear choice against Trump's controversial positions.
The lack of competition and alternative candidates to Harris's nomination
Biden's immediate endorsement of Harris after withdrawing, coupled with the transfer of his substantial $96 million campaign war chest and 1,300-person staff, made mounting a viable challenger campaign nearly impossible due to the shortened timeline and financial disadvantage.
Additionally, as Cohn notes, the optics of a white male Democrat challenging the party's Black female VP as the heir apparent deterred potential rivals from entering the race. The lack of meaningful competition raises questions about the Democratic party's internal dynamics and responsiveness to voters amidst signs of dissatisfaction with Biden.
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Counterarguments
- Harris's electability may be more nuanced than polls suggest, as they can fluctuate over time and may not fully capture the electorate's mood closer to election day.
- Unfavorable ratings can be mitigated through effective campaigning, policy proposals, and debate performances that resonate with voters.
- Harris's background and past campaigns could also be seen as strengths, providing her with experience and a track record that appeal to certain voter demographics.
- The perception of a lack of authenticity could be countered by a more personal and relatable campaign strategy that highlights Harris's life story and achievements.
- The effectiveness of a VP can be difficult to gauge and may not necessarily reflect on their ability to perform as President.
- The Democratic party's eagerness to unite behind Harris could be a strategic move to consolidate support and resources, which is a common practice in party politics.
- Harris's prosecutorial background and communication style could be effective in debates and campaigning, particularly on issues where there is a stark contrast with the opposition.
- The lack of competition in the nomination process could be viewed as a sign of strength and unity within the party, rather than a lack of responsiveness to voters.
- Biden's endorsement and the transfer of resources could be seen as a strategic decision to ensure the party is in the best position to win the general election.
- The Democratic party's internal dynamics may reflect a strategic choice to back a candidate with a high profile and significant experience rather than a sign of unresponsiveness.
Actionables
- You can analyze the electability of public figures by creating a simple scoring system based on key traits like public appeal, past campaign performance, and issue effectiveness. Start by listing traits that you believe contribute to a public figure's electability. Assign a score to each trait based on how well the individual meets your criteria, and then tally the scores to gauge their overall electability. This can help you understand the strengths and weaknesses of potential leaders in a structured way.
- Develop a better understanding of political dynamics by role-playing different party perspectives. Choose a current political issue and write down arguments from multiple sides, including those of party leaders, opposition, and swing voters. This exercise can enhance your ability to empathize with various viewpoints and recognize the complexity of political support.
- Improve your critical thinking by evaluating the strategic decisions of political campaigns. Take a recent election and research the key moves made by the campaign teams, such as endorsements or resource allocation. Consider what you might have done differently and why, which can help you understand the intricacies of political strategy and decision-making.
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Kamala Harris's electability and viability as a Democratic nominee
Questions are being raised about Kamala Harris’s electability in the face of challenging favorability ratings and her performance in polls against Donald Trump.
Harris enters the race as a stronger candidate than Biden, but her favorability ratings and polling numbers against Trump raise concerns about her electability
Nate Cohn acknowledges that Kamala Harris enters the race as a stronger candidate than Joe Biden when he exited, with Biden having low favorability and trailing Trump in polls, while Harris seems somewhat stronger in early polls. However, Cohn raises concerns about Harris's electability due to unfavorable ratings, where a majority of Americans do not view her favorably, and she has trailed Trump in almost every national and battleground state poll. In a critical swing state like Pennsylvania, Harris's favorability is lower (42%) compared to Trump's 46%, and significantly behind Biden's past favorability rating of 51% in the state.
Harris's favorability ratings and poll performance against Trump indicate she may not be as strong a nominee as party leaders believe
Michael Barbaro questions how much of Harris’s problem is her inability to fit into the moderate archetype preferred by Democratic leadership post-2016. Harris's past campaigns, including her 2019 presidential run, which ended before the early primaries, suggest potential weaknesses. Her political instincts may not suit the national stage’s demands, and her efforts to appeal to the left may have cost her authenticity in her messaging.
Harris's political background and past campaign struggles raise questions about her ability to appeal to a broad range of voters
Cohn notes that Harris's political path through the San Francisco Bay Area may not resonate with swing voters across the country. Her campaign for se ...
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Kamala Harris's electability and viability as a Democratic nominee
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- Harris's early stronger polling compared to Biden could indicate a solid starting point for her campaign, with room to grow her favorability as the campaign progresses.
- Favorability ratings can fluctuate significantly during a campaign, and early polls may not accurately predict election outcomes.
- The moderate archetype is not the only successful model for Democratic candidates, and Harris's unique profile could energize different parts of the Democratic base.
- Harris's past campaign struggles could have provided valuable lessons that strengthen her current and future political endeavors.
- Political backgrounds rooted in specific regions like the San Francisco Bay Area do not necessarily preclude a candidate from connecting with a national audience.
- The perception of Harris as an unpopular candidate may not account for the full spectrum of voter demographics and could change as the electorate becomes more familiar with her policies and leadership style.
- Bei ...
Actionables
- You can analyze the impact of regional politics on national perceptions by comparing the political climate of your area with national trends. Start by researching the key issues and political figures in your region and then look at how these align or differ from national conversations. For example, if you live in a tech-heavy area like the Bay Area, consider how local attitudes towards technology and regulation might differ from those in the Rust Belt or the South.
- Enhance your understanding of political messaging by creating a mock campaign for a local issue. Choose a topic that's important in your community, and craft messages that would appeal to different voter demographics. This exercise will help you grasp the complexities of political communication and the importance of authenticity. For instance, if public transportation is a hot topic in your town, try to develop messaging that resonates with both long-time residents and newcomers.
- Improve your ability to assess leadership effectiveness by ...
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The Democratic party's strategic considerations in supporting Harris's nomination
There’s an emerging discussion within the Democratic Party on nominating candidates who can effectively appeal to a wide range of voters and strategically position the party to defeat Trump and his allies. Kamala Harris's nomination is analyzed within this context.
The party's post-2016 strategy has favored nominating moderate, broadly acceptable candidates to appeal to swing voters
Since the 2016 election, the Democratic Party has leaned towards choosing candidates who could capture the moderate and anti-Trump electorate. The trend started in the 2018 midterm elections, where the party nominated political newcomers, military veterans, and moderates perceived as uncontroversial. This allowed voters who were discontent with Trump-aligned Republicans an alternative. The dialogue frames Harris as potentially outside that moderate mold.
Democrats have repeatedly nominated political newcomers and moderates
The selection of these candidates has been part of a strategy that focuses on making races a referendum on Donald Trump. By positioning themselves as widely acceptable alternatives, Democratic candidates have been successful in key elections, drawing support from voters dissatisfied with Republican options.
Party leaders are eager to unite behind Harris to make the election a referendum on Trump and his policies
However, the Democratic Party is showing eagerness to unite behind Kamala Harris, believing she can effectively challenge Trump, especially on issues such as abortion rights. Her background as a prosecutor and her dynamic communication style are seen as strengths that could allow her to be a more forceful messenger against Trump than Biden.
Democrats believe Harris can effectively prosecute the case against Trump
Harris's skills, including her powerful exchanges in Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation hearings and her ability to speak candidly about abortion rights, are highlighted as attributes that could help the Democrats with forwarding a focused and energetic cam ...
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The Democratic party's strategic considerations in supporting Harris's nomination
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- The strategy of nominating moderate candidates may not energize the Democratic base, particularly progressive voters who seek more transformative policies.
- Uniting behind a single candidate early in the process could stifle healthy debate within the party and limit the exploration of diverse policy ideas.
- While Harris's prosecutorial background is seen as an asset, some voters may view it critically due to her record as a prosecutor, which could alienate some segments of the electorate.
- Focusing the election as a referendum on Trump might not address voters' immediate concerns or policy needs, which could lead to voter disengagement.
- Harris's communication style, while dynamic, may not resonate with all voters, and some may prefer a different approach to political discourse.
- The belief that Harris can effectively challenge Trump on issues like abortion rights assumes that these issues will be central to voters' decision-making, whic ...
Actionables
- You can analyze political strategies by comparing local election campaigns to the national trends discussed. Look at the candidates in your area, their backgrounds, and how they communicate their stances on issues. This will help you understand the broader political tactics in play and how they resonate with the local electorate.
- Enhance your critical thinking by evaluating speeches from various politicians, not just those you support. Focus on their communication styles, the clarity of their message, and how they address controversial topics. This practice will sharpen your ability to discern effective communication and argumentation skills, which are valuable in both personal and professional contexts.
- Practice articulating your stance on comp ...
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The lack of competition and alternative candidates to Harris's nomination
The rapid moves made by Joe Biden after withdrawing from the presidential campaign effectively stymied any potential Democratic challengers to Kamala Harris’s nomination.
Biden's quick endorsement of Harris and transfer of his campaign resources made it nearly impossible for any other Democrat to mount a viable challenge
Within a very short timeframe, Biden withdrew from the presidential race, and almost immediately—reportedly, in the time it took Epstein to get home from the pool—endorsed Kamala Harris. The transfer of substantial resources, including $96 million and a 1,300-person campaign staff, to Harris created a daunting obstacle for any potential rivals.
Biden's actions left potential rivals without the time, money, or political support to mount a serious campaign
This left a significantly truncated campaign timeline and established a steep financial imbalance against any potential challengers. With Harris starting out with $96 million and full campaign staff support, the competitive landscape was heavily skewed in her favor.
When Biden ran for a second term, Democratic elites stepped aside, providing what could be described as a glide path toward the nomination. This implied that there was scant room for others within the party to step up as challengers, making any serious contest for the nomination unlikely. The support within the Democratic Party for Harris quickly became significant and rapid, cushioning her from potential threats to her candidacy.
The optics and political risks of a white man challenging a Black woman as the party's heir apparent deterred potential rivals
The subject of competing against Harris was not plainly broached, but the underlying message was clear: the optics of a white male politician attempting to defeat a Black female Vice President were politically untenable within the Democratic Party, particularly given its reliance on the support of w ...
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The lack of competition and alternative candidates to Harris's nomination
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Clarifications
- Democratic elites typically refer to influential and established figures within the Democratic Party who hold significant power and influence over party decisions and directions. These individuals often include long-serving politicians, major donors, party officials, and influential activists who play a key role in shaping party policies and strategies. Their support or lack thereof can have a substantial impact on the outcomes of party nominations and elections.
- The sensitivity around the optics of a white man challenging a Black woman stems from historical power dynamics, racial sensitivities, and gender considerations within the political landscape. It reflects broader societal issues related to ...
Counterarguments
- The consolidation of support around a single candidate can be seen as a strategic move to unify the party and strengthen its chances in the general election.
- Biden's endorsement of Harris could be interpreted as a reflection of her qualifications and readiness to lead, rather than a suppression of competition.
- The transfer of resources to Harris might indicate a high level of confidence in her candidacy and a desire to ensure the party is well-resourced for the upcoming election.
- The lack of challengers could suggest a broad consensus within the party about the direction and leadership rather than a failure of internal dynamics.
- The optics of challenging a sitting Vice President, regardless of race or gender, can be politically risky and may deter potential candidates for reasons unrelated to identity politics.
- The party's decision-making process might be more responsive to a wider range of voter sentiments than is appa ...
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