Voters Want Change. In Our Poll, They See It in Trump.
In this episode of The Daily, The New York Times analyzes a new poll examining voter attitudes and the desire for change leading up to the 2024 presidential election. Despite economic improvements, the poll shows Trump leading Biden in key swing states like Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. What's driving these results?
Nearly 70% of voters across demographics and ideologies express a desire for major systemic changes—a sentiment Trump seems to be capitalizing on as the "change candidate." The poll reveals voters view Biden as a status quo candidate, prompting defections to Trump from young, non-white, and moderate/conservative groups seeking transformation. However, the poll also suggests voter dissatisfaction is specific to Biden rather than a broader rebuke of Democrats.
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1-Page Summary
Reasons for the New Poll
The New York Times conducted a new poll examining voter attitudes in key swing states leading up to the 2024 presidential election, as the presidency is decided by the electoral college. Nate Cohn explains the poll aims to measure the impact of recent political, economic, and global events on voter sentiment and understand voters' deep desire for systemic change, beyond just the candidates' personal attributes.
Key Findings: Trump Leads in 5 of 6 Swing States
Despite economic improvements and significant campaign spending by Biden, Trump maintains a lead in Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Biden's sole lead is in Michigan. If the results hold, Trump would secure a majority of electoral votes, but Biden could still win by capturing Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Cohn notes Trump's diverse support, particularly his lead in Nevada attributed to improved performance among Black, Hispanic, and young voters.
Voters' Desire for Major Changes
Nearly 70% of voters across demographics and ideologies believe the system needs major changes or a complete overhaul, according to Cohn. This desire spans Biden and Trump supporters, indicating discontent with the status quo transcends party lines.
Trump Benefits as the 'Change Candidate'
Cohn states voters perceive Trump as a candidate who would bring major changes or even dismantle the system, aligning with the widespread desire for change. In contrast, voters view Biden as a status quo candidate unlikely to make meaningful reforms. Notably, young, non-white, and moderate/conservative voters - groups eager for change - are defecting from Biden to Trump due to a lack of strong ideological ties to Democrats.
Split from Down-Ballot Races
Despite Biden's struggles, Cohn and Barbaro observe Democratic incumbents in key Senate swing state races maintaining leads, suggesting voter dissatisfaction is specific to Biden rather than a broader rebuke of Democrats. This clear distinction reinforces the notion that Biden's issues are unique to his presidential campaign.
1-Page Summary
Additional Materials
Clarifications
- Swing states are crucial in U.S. presidential elections because they do not consistently vote for a single party. They play a significant role in determining the outcome of the election due to their potential to shift between supporting Democratic and Republican candidates. Candidates focus their campaign efforts on swing states to secure the electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Understanding voter sentiment in these states is essential for predicting election outcomes.
- The electoral college is a system in the United States where each state is assigned a certain number of electors based on its representation in Congress. These electors, equal to the total number of senators and representatives for each state, ultimately cast the votes that elect the President. It is possible for a candidate to win the popular vote but lose the electoral college vote, as the President is determined by the majority of electoral votes, not the overall popular vote. The electoral college was established by the Founding Fathers as a compromise between election of the President by a vote in Congress and election of the President by a popular vote of qualified citizens.
- Trump's lead in certain swing states can be attributed to his diverse support base, including improved performance among Black, Hispanic, and young voters. This broad appeal has helped him maintain an advantage in states like Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Despite economic improvements and campaign spending by Biden, Trump's perceived ability to bring about major changes resonates with voters seeking systemic reforms. This perception contrasts with Biden, who is seen as a status quo candidate, leading some voters, particularly young, non-white, and moderate/conservative individuals, to shift their support towards Trump.
- In the scenario where Trump secures a majority of electoral votes but Biden could still win, it suggests that Biden could win the election even if Trump wins more states. This is because winning specific key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin could still give Biden enough electoral votes to win the presidency. The focus is on the strategic importance of these particular states in determining the overall election outcome.
- Voter sentiment towards systemic change reflects a widespread desire for significant reforms beyond just the candidates' personal attributes. This sentiment influences candidate support, with voters perceiving Trump as more aligned with their desire for major changes compared to Biden, who is seen as a status quo candidate. The appeal of Trump as a 'change candidate' is attracting voters across demographics and ideologies who seek substantial transformations in the political system. This dynamic is leading to shifts in support, with some groups, like young, non-white, and moderate/conservative voters, moving towards Trump due to their dissatisfaction with the current status quo.
- Voter perceptions of Trump as a 'change candidate' stem from his rhetoric and actions that promise significant shifts in policies and systems. On the other hand, Biden is seen as a 'status quo candidate' due to his more moderate and incremental approach to governance. These perceptions are influenced by how each candidate's campaign messaging and policy proposals are framed in the context of addressing the desire for change among voters.
- Voter support among different demographic groups can vary based on factors like candidate appeal, policy positions, and perceived ability to bring about change. Shifts in allegiances may occur due to changing perceptions of candidates' effectiveness in addressing voters' concerns and desires. Understanding these dynamics involves analyzing how candidates resonate with specific demographics and adapt their messaging to appeal to a broad range of voters. Demographic groups such as young, non-white, and moderate/conservative voters may play a significant role in shaping election outcomes based on their evolving preferences and priorities.
- In the context of the text, voter dissatisfaction with Biden in the presidential race does not necessarily translate to a rejection of Democratic candidates in down-ballot races like Senate contests. This distinction suggests that voters may be evaluating candidates differently based on the office they are running for and the specific issues at play. It indicates a nuanced approach by voters, where they may support Democratic candidates in other races despite concerns about Biden's performance in the presidential election.
Counterarguments
- The poll's findings may not be fully predictive of the election outcome, as voter sentiment can change rapidly, especially in the months leading up to an election.
- The perception of Trump as a 'change candidate' might be contested by those who argue that his previous term did not bring the systemic changes some voters are seeking.
- Biden's characterization as a status quo candidate may overlook his policy proposals that aim to bring about change, which may not have been effectively communicated or perceived by the electorate.
- The lead in swing states for Trump might not account for the full spectrum of voter issues and concerns, and other factors could influence the final vote.
- The reported defection of young, non-white, and moderate/conservative voters from Biden to Trump could be more nuanced, with other candidates or local issues influencing their decisions.
- The support for Democratic incumbents in Senate races suggests that the party's policies may still resonate with voters, challenging the idea that dissatisfaction is solely with Biden.
- The desire for major changes or a complete overhaul of the system expressed by 70% of voters may not directly translate into support for Trump, as voters may desire different types of change than what he represents.
- The improved performance of Trump among Black, Hispanic, and young voters could be influenced by specific campaign strategies or local issues that may not reflect a broader national trend.
- The assumption that voter dissatisfaction is specific to Biden might not consider other external factors affecting his popularity, such as media coverage or public perception shaped by recent events.
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Reasons for the new New York Times poll on the 2024 presidential election
The New York Times has initiated a new poll to examine voter attitudes preceding the 2024 presidential election, focusing on swing states and voters' desires for systemic change.
The poll focuses on key swing states rather than a national poll, as the presidency is decided by the electoral college.
The poll conducted by The New York Times is centered on key swing states due to the electoral college's decisive role in American presidential elections. Recognizing the importance of these battleground areas, the poll is designed to capture the current political climate amidst a landscape that has experienced considerable change over the last half year.
The last swing state poll was conducted 6 months ago, so this poll aims to measure the impact of significant political, economic, and global events that have occurred since then.
The decision to redirect polling efforts comes after a six-month gap since the last swing state poll. This new installment seeks to measure the impact of recent political, economic, and global events on voter sentiment. With the election on the horizon, understanding these shifts is key to forecasting electoral outcomes.
The poll also sought to better understand voters' deep desire for change, beyond just the personal attributes of the candidates.
Nate Cohn elaborates that this poll goes beyond assessing candidate attributes and delves into the ...
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Reasons for the new New York Times poll on the 2024 presidential election
Additional Materials
Clarifications
- Swing states are U.S. states where the support for political parties is closely divided, making them pivotal in determining the outcome of presidential elections. These states are crucial because they do not consistently vote for a single party, swinging between Democrats and Republicans in different elections. Candidates often focus their campaign efforts on swing states due to their potential to influence the overall election results.
- The Electoral College is a system in the United States where each state is assigned a certain number of electors based on its representation in Congress. These electors ultimately cast the votes that directly elect the President and Vice President. It is possible for a candidate to win the popular vote nationwide but still lose the election if they do not secure enough electoral votes. This system was established by the Founding Fathers as a compromise between electing the President by Congress or by a popular vote.
- Understanding voter sentiment through polling is crucial for political analysis as it provides insights into public opinion, preferences, and trends. Polls help gauge the mood of the electorate, track changes over time, and predict potential outcomes in elections. By focusing on key swing states, where the election can be decided, polls offer a more targeted view of voter attitudes and behaviors. This information is valuable for candidates, political parties, and analysts to tailor their strategies and messages to align with the electorate's desires and concerns.
- Understanding voters' desire for change goes beyond evaluating the personal qualities of candidates. It involves delving into the substantive changes voters seek in policies and systems. This distinction is c ...
Counterarguments
- While focusing on swing states reflects the workings of the Electoral College, it may overlook national trends and sentiments that could influence the overall political climate and voter turnout.
- Polls can be subject to sampling errors or biases, and the results may not accurately represent the broader population's views.
- The emphasis on swing states might reinforce a two-tiered political system where the concerns of voters in non-swing states are perceived as less important.
- Measuring the impact of events over the last six months assumes that voters' opinions are shaped by recent events, which may not account for long-held beliefs or partisan loyalty.
- The desire for change is a complex and multifaceted issue, and a poll may not capture the nuances of what change means to different voters.
- The framing of questions in a poll can influence the responses, potentially leading to results that reflect the wording of the question rather than the true sentiments of the voters.
- The assumption that voters will be able to clearly articulate the type of change they de ...
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Key poll findings: Trump leads in 5 of 6 swing states
Despite economic improvements and significant campaign spending by Joe Biden, Donald Trump maintains a lead in pivotal swing states.
Swing State Advantages
As it stands, Trump is ahead in Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Biden's Singular Lead
Biden holds a lead in just one of the swing states, Michigan, which could be critical for his election prospects.
Electoral Implications
A Path to Victory for Both Candidates
If the current poll results hold, Trump would secure a majority of the electoral votes. However, Biden still has a potential route to victory. By clutching Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Biden could achieve the 270 electoral vote threshold required to win the presidency.
Trump's Diverse Support Base
Trump's leads are notably stronger in the Sunbelt states, attributed to his improved performance among Black, Hispanic, and ...
Here’s what you’ll find in our full summary
Key poll findings: Trump leads in 5 of 6 swing states
Additional Materials
Clarifications
- Swing states are states in the United States where the level of support for each major political party is closely balanced, making them crucial in determining the outcome of presidential elections. These states are often highly contested, as they do not consistently vote for one party over the other. Candidates focus significant campaign efforts on swing states due to their potential to swing the overall election results in their favor. The term "swing state" is commonly used in American politics to describe states that are not reliably Republican or Democratic in presidential elections.
- The electoral vote threshold is the minimum number of electoral votes a candidate needs to win the presidency, which is 270 out of the total 538 electoral votes available. This threshold is crucial because a candidate must secure at least 270 electoral votes to be declared the winner of the presidential election. Winning the majority of electoral votes is the key to winning the presidency in the United States. Candidates focus their campaign strategies on winning states that will help them reach or surpass the 270-vote threshold.
- The Sunbelt states in the United States generally encompass the Southeast and Southwest regions, known for their warm climates and economic opportunities. The region has experienced significant population growth post-World War II due to factors like favorable weather, retiring baby boomers, and economic development. The Sunbelt's appeal includes diverse climates, from desert areas to tropical regions, attracting residents and supporting industries like tourism and manufacturing. This region's growth has been fueled by factors like air conditioning, modern housing styles, and year-round recreational opportunities.
- Michael Barbaro is a journalist and host of the popular podcast "The Daily" by The New York Times. He is known for his in-depth interviews and analysis of current events, politics, an ...
Counterarguments
- Polls are not always accurate predictors of election outcomes; they can be influenced by sampling errors, timing, and respondents' willingness to disclose their true preferences.
- Leading in polls does not guarantee victory; voter turnout on election day can significantly alter expectations based on polling.
- Swing states can be unpredictable, and small shifts in voter sentiment can lead to different outcomes than what polls suggest.
- Biden's lead in Michigan, while singular, could indicate a potential for gaining momentum in other swing states as well.
- The electoral college system means that winning by large margins in a few states is less important than winning by any margin in enough states.
- Trump's diverse support base may not be as solid as it appears; voter preferences can change rapidly in response to new information or events.
- The concept of a "candidate of change" can be subjective and may not resonate with all voters, especially if they are looking for stability or a return to previous poli ...
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Voters' deep desire for major political and economic changes
The United States is witnessing a significant shift as a diverse range of voters express their desire for sweeping changes in the political and economic landscape.
Nearly 70% of voters believe the system needs major changes or needs to be entirely rebuilt.
In the New York Times poll cited by Nate Cohn, an overwhelming majority of voters express deep dissatisfaction with the current state of the political and economic system. Almost 70% believe that the system either requires major changes or should be completely rebuilt.
This desire for change spans demographic and ideological lines.
Cohn emphasizes that this sentiment does not discriminate across demographic lines—it is broadly shared by young voters, Black voters, and Hispanic voters, who once formed the core of Obama's coalition and are now clamoring for substantive transformations in society.
Joe Biden, once perceived as a harbinger of change during the Trump presidency, has seemingly lost that image as voters increa ...
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Voters' deep desire for major political and economic changes
Additional Materials
Clarifications
- Joe Biden was initially seen as a candidate for change during the 2020 election, offering a shift from the policies of the Trump administration. However, as the focus of voters broadened beyond immediate crises like the pandemic and social unrest, the perception of Biden as a change agent has diminished. This shift in perception reflects a broader desire among voters for more fundamental and systemic changes in the political and economic landscape, which has led to a reevaluation of Biden's role in addressing these deeper issues.
- The death of George Floyd in May 2020 sparked widespread protests and discussions about systemic racism and police brutality in the United States. Floyd, an African American man, died after a Minneapolis police officer knelt on his neck for over nine minutes during an arrest. The incident was captured on video and circulated widely, leading to outrage and calls for justice and reform within the criminal justice system. Floyd's death became a focal point for the Black Lives Matter movement and prompted a national reckoning on racial inequality and police practices.
- The shift in focus beyond the pandemic and societal tensions is driven b ...
Counterarguments
- The poll may not accurately represent the entire population due to sampling errors or biases.
- Desire for change is a constant in politics; it does not necessarily indicate a unique or unprecedented level of dissatisfaction.
- The complexity of the issues may mean that while voters desire change, there is no consensus on the direction or nature of the desired changes.
- The perception of Joe Biden's image could be influenced by partisan media portrayals and may not reflect the opinions of the broader electorate.
- Economic and political systems are large and complex, and calls for major changes or rebuilds may underestimate the potential risks and unintended consequences of such sweeping reforms.
- The focus of voters can be influenced by media cycles and may shift back to issues like the pandemic or societal tensions as they evolve or new events occur.
- The sentiment ...
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How the desire for change benefits Trump while hurting Biden
Nate Cohn articulates how President Joe Biden's association with the status quo is driving historically pivotal voters towards Donald Trump, whose campaign is perceived as the more transformative option.
Voters see Trump as a candidate who would bring major changes or even tear down the system, aligning with what they want.
Cohn notes that Donald Trump is seen by voters as a candidate representing change, which is precisely what many desire. According to Cohn, 70% of voters thought Donald Trump would either bring about huge changes nationally or completely "tear the system down," which correlates closely to the 70% of voters who are seeking major alterations to the current state of affairs. This perception benefits Trump, who is able to capitalize on the public hunger for change, contrasting sharply with Joe Biden.
In contrast, voters view Biden as a status quo candidate who wouldn't make meaningful changes.
Conversely, Joe Biden is now being perceived as a symbol of demographics of the past and no longer fundamentally a candidate for change. Voters are skeptical that Biden would introduce considerable change, with 30% believing that nothing would alter and almost 40% only anticipating minor adjustments under a Biden administration. Amidst a prominent desire for substantial change, his perception as a custodian of the status quo places Joe Biden at a disadvantage.
The voters most eager for change - young, non-white, and more moderate/conservative - are the ones defecting from Biden to Trump.
Focusing on demographics, Nate Cohn points out that Biden is losing the most ground among young, black, and Hispanic voters – those who eagerly yearn for the most foundational changes and were instrumental to President Obama’s earlier victories. Those voicing disapproval with Biden tend to be moderate or conservative, young, and non-white individuals. They have a desire for major revamps but do not harbor strong liberal affiliations or ideological ties to the Democratic Party, making them more receptive to Trump’s message of disruption.
These voters don't have strong ideological ties to the Democratic Party, making them more receptive to Trump's disruptive message.
Cohn clarifies that the cohort of voters who supported Biden in the previous election ...
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How the desire for change benefits Trump while hurting Biden
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Clarifications
- The voters who are defecting from Biden to Trump are primarily young, non-white, and more moderate or conservative individuals. These demographics are seeking significant changes and are less tied to the Democratic Party's ideology, making them more open to Trump's message of disruption. They include young, black, and Hispanic voters who played crucial roles in past Democratic victories but are now showing dissatisfaction with Biden's perceived lack of transformative potential. These voters are looking for substantial shifts in policies and approaches, leading them to consider Trump as a more appealing candidate for change.
- The dissatisfaction with Biden among certain voter groups, particularly young, non-white, and more moderate/conservative individuals, stems from their perception of him as a status quo candidate unlikely to bring about significant change. These groups, who desire substantial transformations, feel that Biden may only deliver minor adjustments or maintain the current state of affairs, leading to their defection towards Trump, who is seen as a more transformative option. This dissatisfaction is notable among voters who supported Biden previously but now seek more revolutionary changes and are not strongly tied to the Democratic Party ideologically.
- Cohn suggests that Biden's strategies to counter Trump's appeal involve either making Americans content with the current state of the country ...
Counterarguments
- Voters may perceive Trump's version of change as negative or destructive, preferring stability or incremental change that Biden might represent.
- Biden's experience and perceived stability could be seen as an asset in uncertain times, with some voters prioritizing experience over radical change.
- The demographic shift away from Biden could be more complex, involving factors beyond just a desire for change, such as economic conditions or policy outcomes.
- Some voters may have ideological ties to the Democratic Party that are not solely based on a desire for change but on shared values and principles that they believe Biden represents.
- Trump's previous term in office may lead some voters to question the effectiveness of his "disruptive" approach, preferring a more measured and predictable governance style.
- Biden's potential strategies could also include highlighting successful policies and demonstrating how they can lead to progressive change within the existing system.
- The assumption that all change is positive may be challenged; voters might seek assurance that change will be managed responsibly and lead to improvements in their lives.
- The defec ...
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Contrast between the presidential race and down-ballot races in these swing states
Political analysts are observing a distinct contrast between the presidential race and down-ballot Senate races in several key swing states.
In Senate races in these states, Democratic incumbents are maintaining leads, even as Biden struggles.
Nate Cohn and Michael Barbaro note that expected dynamics affecting down-ballot races aren't aligning with what's happening in the presidential race. This separation suggests that concerns about President Biden are not metastasizing into a broader rebuke of the Democratic Party.
Cohn notes that while a desire for change might be anticipated to influence other candidates and races on the ballot, the trend seems to focus mainly on the presidential contest. The unique issues facing Biden imply it's not a wider critique of Democratic policies or politicians, but rather something specific to him and his campaign.
Barbaro observes that voter dissatisfaction with Biden doesn't extend to Senate races, as Democratic voters remain supportive of their party's incumbents. This further supports the idea that Biden's struggles are a self-contained issue within the presidential contest and do not reflect a more extensive sentiment against the Democratic Party.
In the battleground state of Nevada, Democratic incumbent Senator Jackie Rosen is leading by two points. Notably, Rosen garners expected levels of support from young and nonwhite voters—a stark contrast to their support in the presidential race, where Trump leads among these ...
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Contrast between the presidential race and down-ballot races in these swing states
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Clarifications
- Down-ballot races typically refer to elections for positions other than the presidency, such as Senate races or local offices. These races are called "down-ballot" because they appear further down on the ballot paper. They are important as they can impact governance at various levels of government. The outcomes of down-ballot races can also reflect voter sentiment towards political parties beyond the presidential race.
- Swing states, also known as battleground states, are states in the U.S. where either major political party has a realistic chance of winning during elections. These states are crucial in determining the outcome of elections, especially presidential ones, as they can swing in favor of either party. Campaigns often focus their efforts on swing states due to their potential to influence the overall election results.
- An incumbent is the current officeholder seeking re-election. Incumbents often have advantages like name recognition and access to resources. In elections without an incumbent, it's called an open seat. The incumbent's position can influence the dynamics of an election.
- A "self-contained issue within the presidential contest" means that the challenges or problems being faced are specific to the presidential election and are not significantly affecting other related races, like Senate races. In this context, it suggests that the difficulties Joe Biden is encountering are not having a widespread impact on other Democratic candidates or the party's overall standing in down-ballot races. The issues surrounding Biden's campaign are seen as separate and distinct from the performance and support levels of Democratic candidates in Senate races. This term highlights the idea that the struggles faced by Biden are contained within the context of the presidential election and are not necessarily reflective of broader sentiments towards the Democratic Party as a whole.
- Nonwhite voters typically include individuals who do not identify as White/Caucasian. This demographic group encompasses a diverse range of racial and ethnic backgrounds, such as Black/African American, Hispanic/Latino, Asian American, Native American, and others. In political contexts, understanding the preferences and voting behaviors of nonwhite voters is crucial for analyzing election outcomes and trends. Their support or lack thereof can significantly impact the results of elections, especially in diverse and swing states.
- Down-ballot races typically refer to elections for positions other than the presidency, such as Senate races or local offices. These races can be infl ...
Counterarguments
- The observed trends might be temporary and could shift closer to the election as campaign dynamics evolve.
- Local factors and the individual qualities of Senate candidates could be influencing Senate races more than the national political climate.
- The apparent disconnect between presidential and Senate race preferences could be due to a lack of understanding or measurement of voter sentiment, rather than a true difference in voter behavior.
- Some voters might be splitting their tickets, voting for a Republican president and a Democratic senator, which could reflect a more nuanced view of party politics rather than dissatisfaction with Biden specifically.
- The strength of Trump in the presidential race might be due to his personal brand or campaign strategy, which may not necessarily translate to a broader Republican advantage in down-ballot races.
- The leads of Democratic incumbents in Senate races could be overstated due to polling errors or biases, which have been observed in past elections. ...
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1-Page Summary- Reasons for the new New York Times poll on the 2024 presidential election
- Key poll findings: Trump leads in 5 of 6 swing states
- Voters' deep desire for major political and economic changes
- How the desire for change benefits Trump while hurting Biden
- Contrast between the presidential race and down-ballot races in these swing states
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