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It Sucks to Be 33

By The New York Times

Dive into The Daily podcast for an introspective look at the economic challenges overshadowing a generation with speakers Michael Barbaro, Jeanna Smialek, and Julian Barnes. Emphasizing the obstacles that "peak millennials" face, this episode uncovers the stark reality of delayed achievements in milestones once reached by earlier generations. The listener is presented with a panorama of increased housing costs, towering student debt, a volatile job market, and a dip in fertility rates that collectively pose serious repercussions, both for individual life plans and broader economic structures.

The episode delves into how societal disillusionment among this demographic may be poised to leave a significant imprint on politics. Personal accounts, such as that of Thomas Stiller, illustrate the profound sense of dissatisfaction and disconnection from the principles of capitalism, which may ultimately discourage political engagement like voting. This collective feeling of detachment, born from economic frustration, could be a harbinger for how peak millennials might influence electoral decisions and the shape of future governance.

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It Sucks to Be 33

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It Sucks to Be 33

1-Page Summary

Peak Millennials Have Experienced Delays in Major Economic Milestones

Peak millennials are confronting significant challenges in reaching key economic milestones that their predecessors generally achieved earlier. High housing costs, substantial student debt, weak job markets, and lower fertility rates are some of the hurdles they face. These factors are influencing individual life plans and having ripple effects on economic systems such as the housing market and social safety nets.

Regarding the housing market, the median age of first-time homebuyers has risen from 31 to 35 in the past decade, indicative of affordability barriers and a competitive housing landscape. The student loan crisis is epitomized by individuals like Thomas Stiller, burdened with debt from for-profit colleges, facing the struggle of juggling jobs without achieving financial security.

The job market has not been kind to peak millennials either, especially those entering the workforce during recession periods. The long-term impact on their career and wealth acquisition is similar to the challenges faced by late baby boomers. Lastly, declining fertility rates among millennials are set to strain already pressured safety nets like Social Security, as fewer adults in the future will pay into these programs.

Disillusionment Among Peak Millennials Could Shape Politics

The political disposition of peak millennials is increasingly characterized by disillusionment, rooted in economic frustrations. This demographic is facing a system that appears to hinder rather than help their aspirations, which has led to widespread disaffection and anger.

Their displeasure, fueled by concentrated wealth and limited opportunities for upward mobility, is voiced by individuals such as Thomas Stiller. He expresses resentment towards capitalism and its failings in equitable wealth distribution, reflecting broader sentiments among his peers. This political dissatisfaction has significant implications, as it may deter individuals like Stiller from engaging in democratic processes, such as voting. Consequently, the collective disillusionment of peak millennials has potential to shape future political outcomes.

1-Page Summary

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Peak millennials is a term used to describe individuals born in the early 1980s to mid-1990s, considered to be at the peak of the millennial generation. They are facing challenges such as high housing costs, student debt, a tough job market, and declining fertility rates, impacting their economic milestones. This demographic's experiences and struggles are shaping their political views and potentially influencing future political outcomes.
  • Affordability barriers in the context of housing typically refer to challenges that make it difficult for individuals or households to afford suitable housing options within their financial means. These barriers can include high housing costs relative to income levels, limited availability of affordable housing units, and stringent lending requirements for mortgages. Affordability barriers can impact various aspects of individuals' lives, such as delaying homeownership, increasing financial strain, and influencing decisions on where to live. Addressing affordability barriers often involves policy interventions aimed at improving access to affordable housing options for a broader range of income groups.
  • For-profit colleges are educational institutions run by private businesses seeking to make a profit. They offer various programs and degrees, often with a focus on vocational or career-oriented education. Concerns have been raised about the quality of education, student outcomes, and financial practices in some for-profit colleges. These institutions have faced scrutiny for issues like high student debt, low graduation rates, and aggressive recruitment tactics.
  • Social Security is a government program in the United States that provides financial assistance to retired and disabled individuals. It is funded through payroll taxes collected from current workers and employers. The program offers benefits to eligible recipients to help them maintain a basic standard of living in retirement or in case of disability. Social Security is considered a crucial safety net for many Americans, especially as they age and may no longer be able to work.
  • Disillusionment among peak millennials refers to a sense of disappointment and loss of faith in societal systems and structures, particularly in the context of economic opportunities and social mobility. This disillusionment is often fueled by challenges such as high housing costs, student debt, limited job prospects, and concerns about the future of social safety nets. It can lead to feelings of frustration, disaffection, and anger towards the existing economic and political systems. This sentiment may influence their engagement in political processes and shape their views on issues like wealth distribution and social equity.
  • Upward mobility opportunities refer to the ability of individuals to improve their socioeconomic status, typically by moving to higher income brackets or achieving a better standard of living than their parents. This concept encompasses factors like access to quality education, job prospects, and financial resources that can influence a person's ability to progress economically. It reflects the idea of the "American Dream," where individuals have the chance to advance through hard work and determination. Hindered upward mobility can lead to feelings of frustration and disillusionment among individuals who feel stuck in their current economic circumstances.
  • Capitalism's failings in wealth distribution often point to the criticism that the system tends to concentrate wealth among a small percentage of the population, leading to income inequality. Critics argue that capitalism can result in disparities where a minority amasses significant wealth while a larger portion struggles to meet basic needs. This issue is often highlighted in discussions about economic fairness and social justice within capitalist societies. Calls for reforms or alternative economic models stem from concerns about the impact of unequal wealth distribution on societal well-being.

Counterarguments

  • Economic milestones may be delayed, but this could also reflect changing values and priorities among millennials, such as a preference for experiences over ownership or a desire for more flexible lifestyles.
  • While high housing costs are a barrier, there are also more programs and options for first-time homebuyers than in the past, including low down payment loans and first-time buyer incentives.
  • Student debt is a significant issue, but it's also important to consider the higher earning potential and career opportunities that often come with a college education.
  • The job market may be challenging, but there are also new industries and job types emerging that were not available to previous generations, offering new opportunities for career growth.
  • Lower fertility rates could be a conscious choice by millennials prioritizing career or personal development, rather than purely an economic consequence.
  • The impact on social safety nets like Social Security may be mitigated by policy reforms and changes in retirement planning, rather than solely relying on a traditional workforce-to-retiree ratio.
  • Political disillusionment is not unique to peak millennials and has been observed in various demographic groups throughout history.
  • Disaffection and anger can lead to positive change when it motivates civic engagement and the pursuit of policy reforms.
  • While there is resentment towards concentrated wealth, there is also a growing entrepreneurial spirit among millennials, with many starting their own businesses and advocating for economic reforms.
  • Political dissatisfaction might deter some from voting, but it can also galvanize others to become more politically active and engaged in advocating for change.
  • The potential influence of peak millennials on future political outcomes could also lead to a surge in new, innovative policy solutions that address their unique challenges.

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It Sucks to Be 33

Peak Millennials Have Experienced Delays in Major Economic Milestones

Peak millennials face significant barriers in achieving traditional economic milestones, such as buying homes, paying off student loans, establishing careers, and starting families. These issues are not only affecting their personal trajectories but also have broader implications for societal structures like the retirement system.

The peak millennial generation faces housing shortages and rising costs

Millennials are delaying homeownership due to high prices and interest rates

The demand for entry-level single-family homes is expected to remain strong for the rest of the decade, which indicates continuous competition and possible housing shortages. Smialek observes that the median age of first-time homebuyers has risen from 31 in 2013 to 35 in 2023. The high home prices and increasing interest rates, especially after the pandemic, have made housing affordability a significant challenge for peak millennials as they enter the market.

Peak millennials carry high student debt burdens

For-profit colleges left many graduates with loans but dubious credentials

During the Great Recession, college enrollment surged as individuals sought to ride out the economic downturn. In the era of for-profit colleges, many students were left with questionable credentials and substantial student debt. Student debt has overtaken credit card debt as the second-highest source of debt, only behind mortgages. Thomas Stiller, with a master's degree, encapsulates this struggle as he juggles multiple jobs and battles to pay off his student loans and save money.

Weak job markets have challenged peak millennials' career and wealth trajectories

Peak millennials entered the job market during or just after recessions

Many peak millennials, who did not complete college, entered a difficult job market during the depths of the Great Recession, and those who graduated around 2012 or 2013 confronted a historically weak labor market due to the prolonged recovery. Smialek points out the long-term detriments of starting a career i ...

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Peak Millennials Have Experienced Delays in Major Economic Milestones

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Peak millennials are individuals born roughly between the early 1980s and mid-1990s. They are considered the "peak" of the millennial generation in terms of age and demographic influence. This group faces unique economic challenges such as delayed homeownership, high student debt burdens, and difficulties in establishing careers and starting families. Their experiences have broader implications for societal structures like the retirement system.
  • For-profit colleges are educational institutions run by private companies for financial gain. These colleges have faced criticism for issues like questionable credentials, high student debt burdens, and concerns about educational quality. They have been a significant part of the higher education sector in various countries, offering alternative pathways for students but also raising concerns about access and standards.
  • The Great Recession was a severe economic downturn that began in the U.S. in December 2007 and lasted until June 2009. It was triggered by the bursting of the housing bubble and the resulting financial crisis, leading to widespread job losses, home foreclosures, and a significant impact on global economies. The recession had long-lasting effects on employment, housing markets, and overall economic stability, particularly for those entering the job market during or after this period.
  • Financial stress among peak millennials can lead to challenges in meeting financial obligations, such as paying off debts and covering living expenses. This stress can result from factors like high student loan burdens, limited job opportunities, and the high cost of living. In some ca ...

Counterarguments

  • Housing market dynamics are complex, and while millennials face challenges, there are also various programs and new financial instruments aimed at helping first-time buyers enter the market.
  • The narrative around student debt often overlooks the fact that higher education can lead to increased lifetime earnings, and there are income-driven repayment plans that can make loan payments more manageable.
  • The rise of remote work and the gig economy has created new career opportunities for millennials that may not be captured in traditional employment statistics.
  • Economic resilience can sometimes be found in adversity; millennials who have navigated economic downturns may have developed unique skills and adaptability that could benefit them in the long run.
  • Fertility rates are influenced by a multitude of factors, including personal choice and societal shifts, not just economic conditions.
  • The strain on social safety nets like Social Security is a multifaceted ...

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It Sucks to Be 33

Disillusionment Among Peak Millennials Could Shape Politics

A feeling the system is not working for them politically

Anger over wealth concentration and reduced upward mobility

Peak millennials are grappling with a profound sense of disillusionment, fueled by the challenges they face in achieving financial and economic success. Many from this age group are finding it increasingly difficult to reach the milestones that prior generations had managed to achieve much earlier in life.

One individual, Thomas Stiller from Pennsylvania, voices a resentment that many of his peers are feeling. He points to a system that he believes has faltered, highlighting the concentration of wealth and the obstacles that prevent its fair distribution. As Stiller articulates his struggle with the state of affairs, he lays the blame on capitalism for this wealth concentration, which in his view has hind ...

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Disillusionment Among Peak Millennials Could Shape Politics

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Peak Millennials typically refer to individuals born in the early to mid-1980s up to the mid-1990s. They are considered the "peak" of the millennial generation in terms of age and are often characterized by their experiences and challenges unique to this specific age range.
  • Disillusionment among peak millennials can shape politics by influencing their participation in elections and their support for political candidates and policies. When individuals feel disillusioned with the current economic system or societal structures, they may be less inclined to engage in traditional political processes. This disenchantment can lead to shifts in voting patterns, activism, and demands for change within the political landscape. Ultimately, the collective disillusionment of a generation like peak millennials can impact the priorities and direction of political agendas and decision-making.
  • Peak millennials face obstacles in achieving financial success due to factors like high st ...

Counterarguments

  • The political system may be working for peak millennials in ways that are not immediately visible or appreciated, such as social safety nets or progressive policies that have been implemented.
  • Wealth concentration is a complex issue with multiple causes, including globalization, technological advancement, and policy decisions, not just the nature of capitalism itself.
  • Upward mobility may be influenced by a variety of factors beyond economic systems, such as education, access to resources, and individual choices.
  • Some peak millennials are achieving financial and economic success, suggesting that while there are systemic issues, there are also paths to success within the current system.
  • Blaming capitalism as a whole may overlook the benefits it has brought, such as innovation, increased standards of living, and economic growth.
  • Political ...

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