In a recent episode of "The Daily," host Sabrina Tavernise along with Nate Cohn delve into the murky waters of voter sentiment that view both President Biden and Donald Trump unfavorably. The emergence of "double haters," a group now comprising 19% of voters who disliked both candidates in the 2020 election, has become a pivotal force in the political arena. Their discussion unpacks the potential impact these voters could have on future elections as they sway between reluctance, endorsement, indifference, or third-party alternatives, underscoring the unpredictability of their influence.
"The Daily" also explores historical parallels from the contentious 2016 election and its aftermath, offering perspective on current trends. With the 2024 election on the horizon, Tavernise and Cohn examine the highly uncertain electoral landscape shaped by shifting allegiances among young, Black, and Latino voters. While the episode does not predict outcomes, it highlights key factors that may dictate the course of the upcoming election, including President Biden's low approval ratings, the critical sway of Black Democrats, and the impact of voter recollection of past opposition.
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The current political climate is seeing a shift in voter sentiment since the 2020 election. President Biden's approval and favorability have dropped since his election win, now with only 38% of voters viewing him positively. A new influential group known as "double haters," those who dislike both President Biden and Donald Trump, has grown from 5% to 19%. This demographic, critical for Biden's previous victory, is evolving and includes traditionally Democratic-leaning young, Black, and Latino voters. These "double haters" are at a crossroads, with potential to back Biden reluctantly, support Trump, turn to third-party candidates, or abstain from voting, demonstrating their crucial role in upcoming elections due to their unpredictable behavior.
The 2016 election saw a conflict among voters over two generally disliked candidates, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, leading to unpredictable polling and outcomes. Voters at the time bounced between the two candidates, following the ups and downs of the campaign trail, with "double haters" eventually gravitating back towards their party affiliation in the voting booth. This behavior provides insight into the potential patterns that might emerge in the future, although the dynamics and voter sentiment have evolved since then.
The upcoming 2024 election appears to be highly unpredictable, with a volatile group of conflicted voters at the center of the potential outcomes. The "double haters" could cause a decisive electoral shift based on their ultimate choice. It's unclear if these dissatisfied voters will see Biden as the "lesser of two evils" and favor him over Trump or a third-party alternative, or if they may not vote at all. Reminding voters of their previous opposition to Trump might play a significant role in their decision-making process. While Biden's position should theoretically benefit his reelection prospects, his current approval ratings are perilously low for an incumbent, and his age presents an additional challenge. The real test will be whether groups that previously backed Biden, such as black Democrats who now show a tendency to support Trump, will follow through on these statements in the voting booth.
1-Page Summary
Recent trends suggest a significant shift in voter sentiment since the 2020 election. The decline in President Biden's approval and the increase of "double haters" indicate a complex and unpredictable political landscape heading into future elections.
Since the 2020 election, there has been a noticeable decline in President Biden's popularity. Once enjoying a majority favorable opinion, only 38% of voters now view him positively. Even more concerning for the current administration, his job approval rating has dipped lower than his favorability.
A new voting demographic that is shaping up to be influential is composed of voters who harbor negative views towards both Biden and Trump, labeled "double haters." This group has grown from 5% in 2020 to 19% and was previously a significant demographic for Biden, favoring him over Trump by a three-to-one margin. The rise of double haters is a red flag for the Democratic Party as it includes young, Black, and Latino voters—key blocs that traditionally lean Democrat.
Key dissatisfied voters
The 2016 U.S. presidential election is remembered for the conflict among voters between two candidates they generally didn't like, leading to unpredictable polling and ultimately a tendency to return to party lines.
The 2016 election featured two deeply disliked candidates, with events leading to momentary surges for each candidate. An example cited was Donald Trump taking a brief lead around the Republican convention despite being offensive towards the parent of a deceased soldier, which was followed by Hillary Clinton surging back into the lead.
Cohn explains that during the 2016 campaign, undecided voters conflicted between Trump and Clinton could swing abruptly between the two sides based on the issues at the forefront of the voters' minds at any given moment. The polls swung following good news and bad news for each candidate, c ...
2016 election parallels
Nate Cohn and Sabrina Tavernise discuss the highly unpredictable and volatile nature of the upcoming election, with several factors influencing the potential outcomes.
Cohn and Tavernise determine that voters' dissatisfaction on both sides results in an unforeseeable election dynamic. This ambiguity stems from the "double haters," voters who dislike both candidates, potentially leading to a decisive shift depending on their final decision.
There is a prevailing uncertainty whether moderates who grudgingly voted for Biden in the last election, driven by an aversion to Trump, will repeat their decision. Some voters are contemplating supporting Biden again, seeing him as the lesser of two evils. However, others are weighing third-party options or abstaining from voting altogether.
The decision-making could also be heavily influenced by reminding voters of their prior disapproval of Donald Trump. A phenomenon referred to as Trump amnesia suggests that some voters may have forgotten why they opposed Trump, impacting their voting choices.
Cohn indicates that, in principle, the underlying political conditions and the nature of Bide ...
Potential outcomes of 2024 election
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