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The Unhappy Voters Who Could Swing the Election

By The New York Times

In a recent episode of "The Daily," host Sabrina Tavernise along with Nate Cohn delve into the murky waters of voter sentiment that view both President Biden and Donald Trump unfavorably. The emergence of "double haters," a group now comprising 19% of voters who disliked both candidates in the 2020 election, has become a pivotal force in the political arena. Their discussion unpacks the potential impact these voters could have on future elections as they sway between reluctance, endorsement, indifference, or third-party alternatives, underscoring the unpredictability of their influence.

"The Daily" also explores historical parallels from the contentious 2016 election and its aftermath, offering perspective on current trends. With the 2024 election on the horizon, Tavernise and Cohn examine the highly uncertain electoral landscape shaped by shifting allegiances among young, Black, and Latino voters. While the episode does not predict outcomes, it highlights key factors that may dictate the course of the upcoming election, including President Biden's low approval ratings, the critical sway of Black Democrats, and the impact of voter recollection of past opposition.

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The Unhappy Voters Who Could Swing the Election

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The Unhappy Voters Who Could Swing the Election

1-Page Summary

Key dissatisfied voters

The current political climate is seeing a shift in voter sentiment since the 2020 election. President Biden's approval and favorability have dropped since his election win, now with only 38% of voters viewing him positively. A new influential group known as "double haters," those who dislike both President Biden and Donald Trump, has grown from 5% to 19%. This demographic, critical for Biden's previous victory, is evolving and includes traditionally Democratic-leaning young, Black, and Latino voters. These "double haters" are at a crossroads, with potential to back Biden reluctantly, support Trump, turn to third-party candidates, or abstain from voting, demonstrating their crucial role in upcoming elections due to their unpredictable behavior.

2016 election parallels

The 2016 election saw a conflict among voters over two generally disliked candidates, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, leading to unpredictable polling and outcomes. Voters at the time bounced between the two candidates, following the ups and downs of the campaign trail, with "double haters" eventually gravitating back towards their party affiliation in the voting booth. This behavior provides insight into the potential patterns that might emerge in the future, although the dynamics and voter sentiment have evolved since then.

Potential outcomes of 2024 election

The upcoming 2024 election appears to be highly unpredictable, with a volatile group of conflicted voters at the center of the potential outcomes. The "double haters" could cause a decisive electoral shift based on their ultimate choice. It's unclear if these dissatisfied voters will see Biden as the "lesser of two evils" and favor him over Trump or a third-party alternative, or if they may not vote at all. Reminding voters of their previous opposition to Trump might play a significant role in their decision-making process. While Biden's position should theoretically benefit his reelection prospects, his current approval ratings are perilously low for an incumbent, and his age presents an additional challenge. The real test will be whether groups that previously backed Biden, such as black Democrats who now show a tendency to support Trump, will follow through on these statements in the voting booth.

1-Page Summary

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • "Double haters" are a group of voters who dislike both President Biden and Donald Trump. They have become a significant demographic due to their potential to influence election outcomes. These voters are crucial as they are unpredictable in their behavior, with the ability to impact the choices made in elections. Their decisions could sway the results of the upcoming elections based on how they choose to vote.
  • In the 2016 election, voters who disliked both major candidates, Trump and Clinton, were known as "double haters." These voters often shifted between the candidates before ultimately voting along party lines. This behavior suggests that similar patterns of undecided voters may emerge in future elections, impacting electoral outcomes.
  • "Double haters" are voters who dislike both major political candidates, in this case, President Biden and Donald Trump. Their dissatisfaction with both candidates can lead to unpredictable voting behavior, potentially causing a significant impact on election outcomes. This group's choices, whether they reluctantly support one candidate, opt for a third-party candidate, or abstain from voting, can sway the results of an election.
  • The uncertainty around dissatisfied voters' choices in the 2024 election stems from a group known as "double haters," who dislike both President Biden and Donald Trump. These voters, traditionally crucial for Biden, are now considering various options like reluctantly supporting Biden, backing Trump, choosing third-party candidates, or abstaining from voting. Their unpredictable behavior makes it challenging to predict how they will ultimately influence the election outcome.
  • Reminding voters of their previous opposition to Trump can influence their decision-making by tapping into their past negative perceptions of him. This strategy aims to evoke the emotions and reasons that led them to reject Trump in the past, potentially swaying them towards supporting Biden as the "lesser of two evils" in the upcoming election. By highlighting the reasons why they opposed Trump before, it seeks to reinforce their existing reservations about him and potentially discourage them from supporting him again. This tactic leverages voters' historical perspectives and experiences to shape their current voting preferences.
  • Biden's low approval ratings pose a challenge for his reelection prospects as they indicate a lack of support from the electorate, which is crucial for winning elections. Additionally, his age could be a concern as it may raise questions about his ability to effectively lead for another term, especially given the demanding nature of the presidency. These factors combined could make it harder for Biden to secure a second term in office.

Counterarguments

  • Voter sentiment is fluid, and a 38% approval rating does not necessarily preclude electoral success; historical examples exist where leaders have rebounded from low approval ratings.
  • The growth of the "double haters" group may not be as significant as it seems if they still represent a relatively small portion of the electorate.
  • The assumption that "double haters" are crucial due to their unpredictability might overstate their impact, especially if the majority of voters are loyal to their party.
  • The comparison to the 2016 election may not hold if the political context, candidates, and issues are substantially different in 2024.
  • The idea that voters gravitate back towards party affiliation might not account for the increasing number of independent or non-affiliated voters.
  • Predicting the behavior of the electorate based on past patterns may not be reliable due to changing demographics and political landscapes.
  • The unpredictability of the 2024 election could be overstated; elections often appear volatile but can follow underlying, predictable trends.
  • The influence of "double haters" on the electoral shift might be less decisive if other voter segments mobilize in unexpected ways.
  • Dissatisfied voters might not view the choice as between "lesser of two evils" but rather based on specific issues or policies that resonate with them.
  • The strategy of reminding voters of their opposition to Trump assumes that their views have not changed, which may not be the case.
  • Low approval ratings and age are challenges, but they may not be the primary factors in an election where other issues take precedence.
  • The tendency of certain groups to support Trump could be a temporary sentiment that may not translate into actual voting behavior.
  • The assumption that black Democrats' support for Trump will be reflected in the voting booth may not consider the complexity of voter decision-making processes.

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The Unhappy Voters Who Could Swing the Election

Key dissatisfied voters

Recent trends suggest a significant shift in voter sentiment since the 2020 election. The decline in President Biden's approval and the increase of "double haters" indicate a complex and unpredictable political landscape heading into future elections.

Significant decline in Biden's approval and favorability since 2020 election

Since the 2020 election, there has been a noticeable decline in President Biden's popularity. Once enjoying a majority favorable opinion, only 38% of voters now view him positively. Even more concerning for the current administration, his job approval rating has dipped lower than his favorability.

19% of voters dislike both Biden and Trump ("double haters")

A new voting demographic that is shaping up to be influential is composed of voters who harbor negative views towards both Biden and Trump, labeled "double haters." This group has grown from 5% in 2020 to 19% and was previously a significant demographic for Biden, favoring him over Trump by a three-to-one margin. The rise of double haters is a red flag for the Democratic Party as it includes young, Black, and Latino voters—key blocs that traditionally lean Democrat.

Double haters ma ...

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Key dissatisfied voters

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • "Double haters" are voters who hold negative views towards both President Biden and former President Trump. This group has grown in size and is seen as influential in shaping future elections. They may choose to support other candidates, including third-party options, or may even decide not to vote at all. Their decisions are considered unpredictable and could have significant implications for the political landscape.
  • A job approval rating measures how well a public official is performing in their role, such as the President's performance in office. On the other hand, a favorability rating reflects how positively or negatively people view the individual personally, regardless of their job performance. These two ratings can differ, as someone may approve of a leader's job performance but not necessarily have a favorable opinion of them as a person.
  • Young, Black, and Latino voters are key demographics for the Democratic Party due to historical voti ...

Counterarguments

  • The decline in President Biden's approval ratings may not solely reflect dissatisfaction with his performance but could also be influenced by external factors such as economic conditions, global events, or partisan media coverage.
  • Approval ratings are volatile and can change rapidly in response to significant events, policy changes, or shifts in public opinion, so current figures may not be indicative of future sentiment.
  • The increase in "double haters" could be a sign of a broader desire for new political alternatives rather than a specific rejection of Biden or Trump, indicating a potential opening for new voices or parties.
  • The "double haters" demographic, while growing, still represents a minority of the electorate, and their impact should be considered in the context of the entire voting population.
  • Young, Black, and Latino voters are not a monolithic group, and their political preferences may be diverse and influenced by a wide range of issues beyond their views on Biden and Trump.
  • The potenti ...

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The Unhappy Voters Who Could Swing the Election

2016 election parallels

The 2016 U.S. presidential election is remembered for the conflict among voters between two candidates they generally didn't like, leading to unpredictable polling and ultimately a tendency to return to party lines.

Voters also confliced between candidates they disliked (Trump and Clinton)

The 2016 election featured two deeply disliked candidates, with events leading to momentary surges for each candidate. An example cited was Donald Trump taking a brief lead around the Republican convention despite being offensive towards the parent of a deceased soldier, which was followed by Hillary Clinton surging back into the lead.

Polls swung between Trump and Clinton throughout campaign

Cohn explains that during the 2016 campaign, undecided voters conflicted between Trump and Clinton could swing abruptly between the two sides based on the issues at the forefront of the voters' minds at any given moment. The polls swung following good news and bad news for each candidate, c ...

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2016 election parallels

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • In the context of the 2016 U.S. presidential election, "momentary surges for each candidate" referred to brief periods where either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton experienced a temporary increase in support or momentum in the polls. These surges were often influenced by specific events or developments during the campaign that captured the attention of voters or shifted public opinion. The dynamics of the election were such that these surges were not sustained and could quickly change as new issues or controversies arose, leading to a back-and-forth pattern in the polling data.
  • In the 2016 U.S. presidential election, undecided voters were observed to switch their support between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton quite rapidly. This behavior was influenced by the issues that were prominent at different times during the campaign. Depending on the news, events, or controversies that arose, these undecided voters could change their preferences from one candidate to the other, leading to fluctuations in the polling data. Ultimately, this dynamic contributed to the unpredictable nature of the election and the wide range of possible outcomes that were evident throughout the campaign.
  • "Double hat ...

Counterarguments

  • While many voters were conflicted between Trump and Clinton, there were also voters who were strongly committed to one candidate or the other, and their perspectives and reasons for their support are also an important part of the election narrative.
  • The assertion that polls swung between Trump and Clinton might oversimplify the dynamics of polling, which can be influenced by a variety of factors including methodology, sample size, and the timing of the poll relative to current events.
  • The idea that most "double haters" voted along party lines could be challenged ...

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The Unhappy Voters Who Could Swing the Election

Potential outcomes of 2024 election

Nate Cohn and Sabrina Tavernise discuss the highly unpredictable and volatile nature of the upcoming election, with several factors influencing the potential outcomes.

Range of possibilities due to volatile group of conflicted voters

Cohn and Tavernise determine that voters' dissatisfaction on both sides results in an unforeseeable election dynamic. This ambiguity stems from the "double haters," voters who dislike both candidates, potentially leading to a decisive shift depending on their final decision.

Unclear if dissatisfied voters will return to Biden as "lesser of two evils"

There is a prevailing uncertainty whether moderates who grudgingly voted for Biden in the last election, driven by an aversion to Trump, will repeat their decision. Some voters are contemplating supporting Biden again, seeing him as the lesser of two evils. However, others are weighing third-party options or abstaining from voting altogether.

Large role for reminders of reasons to oppose Trump

The decision-making could also be heavily influenced by reminding voters of their prior disapproval of Donald Trump. A phenomenon referred to as Trump amnesia suggests that some voters may have forgotten why they opposed Trump, impacting their voting choices.

Underlying conditions favor Biden, but approval ratings near historic lows

Cohn indicates that, in principle, the underlying political conditions and the nature of Bide ...

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Potential outcomes of 2024 election

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • The term "double haters" describes voters who have negative feelings towards both candidates in an election. These individuals dislike both options presented to them, which can lead to uncertainty in the election outcome. Their dissatisfaction with the choices available can play a crucial role in determining the final result.
  • Biden's historically low approval ratings can be attributed to various factors, including challenges in managing the COVID-19 pandemic, economic concerns such as inflation and supply chain issues, and criticism over policy decisions like the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Additionally, issues related to border security, rising crime rates, and partisan divisions in Congress have also influenced public perception of his performance as president. These factors have collectively contributed to a decline in public confidence and support for Biden's administration, reflected in his approval ratings.
  • Biden's age is a significant factor in voter disqualification as some voters may have concerns about his ability to effectively carry out the duties of the presidency due to his advanced age. This issue is particularly relevant given that Biden would be seeking reelection, and voters may consider his age when evaluating his fitness for a second term. Age-related concerns could impact voter perceptions of Biden's energy levels, cognitive abilities, and overall capacity to lead the country effectively for another four years.
  • Black Democrats expressing a tendency to vote for Trump may stem from ...

Counterarguments

  • Voter dissatisfaction may not necessarily lead to an unpredictable election if other factors, such as economic conditions or major events, play a more decisive role.
  • "Double haters" might be a smaller or less influential group than assumed, and their impact could be mitigated by strong partisan loyalty among the majority of voters.
  • Dissatisfied voters might not view the election through the lens of choosing the "lesser of two evils" but rather may prioritize specific issues or policies over personal likability of the candidates.
  • The assumption that voters are considering third-party options or abstaining might overestimate the willingness of voters to deviate from the two major parties, which historically dominate U.S. elections.
  • The effectiveness of reminding voters about their previous opposition to Trump could be less significant if voters prioritize current issues or if Trump's policies have since gained favor.
  • "Trump amnesia" may not be a widespread phenomenon, and voters might have a clear and consistent understanding of their political preferences and past voting reasons.
  • Biden's low approval ratings might not be as detrimental if the opposition candidate also has low favorability, or if voters focus on party platforms rather than individual personalit ...

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