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Why the G.O.P. Nomination Fight Is Now (All But) Over

By The New York Times

In a pivotal episode of "The Daily," host Michael Barbaro, alongside political correspondent Jonathan Weisman, unpack the results of the GOP's New Hampshire primary — a race that signals the tightening grip of Donald Trump on the party's nomination. With a staggering lead that spans across essential Republican demographics, Trump's convincing victory has left competitors like Nikki Haley in the dust. The episode delves into the implications of this win, capturing the growing consensus that the Republican nomination contest is now a foregone conclusion.

Listeners will be engrossed as Barbaro and Weisman dissect the current political dynamics, detailing how prominent Republican figures such as Tim Scott and John Cornyn are rallying behind Trump's candidacy. Conversely, they explore the hurdles President Biden faces despite Democratic leadership endorsing him as their champion. His challenges with the youth, progressives, and minority voters are starkly juxtaposed against Trump's unyielding support, setting the stage for an election cycle where the incumbent's vulnerabilities are laid bare against the seemingly impenetrable support for Trump within the GOP.

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Why the G.O.P. Nomination Fight Is Now (All But) Over

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Why the G.O.P. Nomination Fight Is Now (All But) Over

1-Page Summary

Donald Trump's Decisive Victory in New Hampshire Primary

Donald Trump secures a commanding lead in the New Hampshire Republican primary, showing his dominance across various Republican voter demographics. Jonathan Weisman reports that Trump achieved a significant victory, leading Nikki Haley by roughly 10 to 11 percentage points. This win highlighted his appeal to a wide array of Republican voters, including both men and women, and particularly conservative Republicans. Garnering about three-quarters of Republican votes, Trump has strengthened his position as the party's frontrunner.

Republican Nomination Contest Effectively Over

Given the outcomes of the primaries and the current political landscape, it is evident that Donald Trump holds sway over the Republican Party. The nomination contest appears to be firmly settled in his favor, with major Republican figures rallying behind him, and Democratic incumbent Biden facing difficulties with key voter demographics.

Trump Now Controls Republican Party Apparatus

Political analysts interpret that after the New Hampshire primary, Trump has solidified control over the Republican Party. Following his acquittal post-January 6 events, figures such as Tim Scott and John Cornyn have expressed their support for Trump. Representative Nancy Mace's preference for Trump over Haley is indicative of the party's coalescence around his candidacy. With about three-quarters of the primary-voting Republicans backing him, his grip on the GOP is indisputable.

Weak Incumbent Biden Faces Uphill Battle Despite Democratic Party Support

President Biden faces weaknesses within essential voting blocs that could pose challenges during the election. Despite these issues, which include a lack of support among the youth, progressives, and minority voters, the Democratic leadership has chosen to stand with Biden. Rallying around Biden, who is seen as a vulnerable incumbent, may represent a gamble for the Democratic Party, given the president's lukewarm support from pivotal groups.

1-Page Summary

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Tim Scott, John Cornyn, and Nancy Mace are prominent figures in the Republican Party. Tim Scott is a U.S. Senator from South Carolina known for his conservative views. John Cornyn is a U.S. Senator from Texas who has been a key figure in Republican politics. Nancy Mace is a U.S. Representative from South Carolina and a rising star in the party. These individuals play significant roles in shaping Republican policies and strategies.
  • President Biden's lack of support among the youth, progressives, and minority voters suggests that these demographic groups may not be as enthusiastic about his leadership or policies compared to other groups. This could indicate a disconnect between certain segments of the population and the President's agenda, potentially impacting his overall popularity and electoral prospects. The youth demographic typically includes individuals under a certain age bracket, progressives are individuals who advocate for social and political change, and minority voters encompass various racial and ethnic groups who may have specific concerns and priorities. Understanding these dynamics is crucial in assessing the broader political landscape and the challenges faced by President Biden in garnering widespread support.
  • The Democratic Party's support for Biden may be seen as risky due to his perceived weaknesses among key voter demographics, such as the youth, progressives, and minority voters. Despite these challenges, the party leadership has chosen to back Biden as the incumbent president. This decision could be considered a gamble because of Biden's lukewarm support from crucial voting blocs, which might impact the party's electoral prospects.

Counterarguments

  • Trump's lead in New Hampshire does not guarantee a national victory; other states may vote differently.
  • Appeal to various Republican demographics in New Hampshire may not reflect the national Republican electorate.
  • Securing three-quarters of votes in a primary does not necessarily predict general election outcomes.
  • Being a frontrunner in the primary season does not ensure nomination; political dynamics can change rapidly.
  • Control over the party apparatus does not equate to unanimous support from all party members or voters.
  • Support from major Republican figures may not translate into broad voter support in the general election.
  • Nancy Mace's support for Trump might not be indicative of the entire party's sentiment.
  • Biden's challenges with key demographics could be mitigated by policy successes or campaign strategies.
  • Lack of support from certain voter groups for Biden could change as the election approaches and issues evolve.
  • The Democratic Party's decision to support Biden could be based on a strategic assessment that is not immediately apparent.
  • The perceived risk in supporting Biden might be balanced by the potential risks of endorsing a less experienced or less known candidate.

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Why the G.O.P. Nomination Fight Is Now (All But) Over

Donald Trump's Decisive Victory in New Hampshire Primary

Donald Trump's commanding performance in the New Hampshire Republican primary sees him leading by a wide margin and suggests his strong hold over the party as he wins across various demographics.

Trump's Dominance Across All Republican Voter Groups in New Hampshire

Trump won over Republicans, conservatives, men, and women

Jonathan Weisman highlights Donald Trump's robust victory, marking a decisive margin of approximately 10 to 11 percentage points over Nikki Haley in the New Hampshire Republican primary. Trump successfully captured the support of a broad spectrum of voters that included men, women, Republicans, and notably, conservative Republicans, suggesting his comprehensive control over the Republican electorate.

Trump did exceptionally well among fellow Republicans, garnering about three quarters of their votes, which solidifies his position within the party. Weisman asserts that this victory all but guarantees Trump will be the Republican nominee, signaling the enduring loyalty to him within the party base.

Nikki Haley's Failed Strategy to Win Over Independents

Haley's lack of outreach and authenticity with independents

Jonathan Weisman points to Nikki Haley's inability to connect with independent voters, a demographic previously considered likely to support her. Despite the expectation that independents would lean towards Haley in the New Hampshire Republican prim ...

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Donald Trump's Decisive Victory in New Hampshire Primary

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Donald Trump has been a prominent figure in the Republican Party, having served as the 45th President of the United States from 2017 to 2021. His leadership style and policies have polarized opinions within the party, with some members strongly supporting him while others have criticized his approach. Trump's influence on the Republican Party has been significant, shaping its direction and priorities in recent years.
  • In a primary election, winning over different voter groups is crucial as it demonstrates broad support within the party and across various demographics. Securing votes from Republicans, conservatives, men, women, and independents can indicate a candidate's ability to appeal to a diverse range of voters, showcasing their electability and potential strength in the general election. Understanding and effectively targeting these distinct voter groups can be key to securing the nomination and building a strong foundation for a successful campaign. By appealing to a wide array of voters, a candidate can solidify their position within the party and demonstrate their ability to unite different factions behind their candidacy.
  • In the New Hampshire primary, independent voters play a significant role as they can choose to vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary. They are not affiliated with any political party, giving them the flexibility to influence the outcome of either party's primary. Candidates often need to appeal to independents due to their potential to swing the election in a competitive state like New Hampshire. Independents in New Hampshire expect direct engagement ...

Counterarguments

  • While Trump's victory in New Hampshire is significant, it is only one primary and may not be indicative of nationwide support or outcomes in subsequent primaries and caucuses.
  • Trump's control over the Republican Party, though strong, is not absolute, and there may be significant portions of the party that are looking for alternative leadership.
  • Winning over Republicans, conservatives, men, and women in New Hampshire does not necessarily translate to similar support in other states with different demographic compositions.
  • Garnering three quarters of Republican votes in a primary does not guarantee similar support in a general election, where the electorate is more diverse.
  • The assertion that Trump's victory "all but guarantees" him as the Republican nominee may be premature, as the primary season is long and dynamic, with many factors that could influence the outcome.
  • Nikki Haley's failure to connect with independent voters in New Hampshire does not necessarily mean she would fail to do so in other states or in a different electoral context.
  • Haley's campaign strategy in New Hampshire might have been ineffective, but it does not necessarily reflect her overall campaign strategy or her ability to adapt ...

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Why the G.O.P. Nomination Fight Is Now (All But) Over

Republican Nomination Contest Effectively Over

Based on recent primary results and party dynamics, it is clear that Donald Trump has seized control of the Republican Party apparatus, and despite President Biden having Democratic support, he faces an uphill battle due to weaknesses with key voter groups.

Trump Now Controls Republican Party Apparatus

The conversation implies a decisive shift within the Republican Party following success in key primaries, indicating that the nomination contest is effectively resolved in favor of Trump.

Leading Republicans coalescing around Trump nomination

Political analysts observe that after Trump’s victory in the New Hampshire primary, leading Republicans are uniting under his potential nomination. Jonathan Weisman remarks that there was a moment for the Republican Party to distance itself from Trump post-January 6th, yet they failed to convict him. Now, major figures, such as Tim Scott and John Cornyn, have publicly supported him. Representative Nancy Mace's choice of Trump over Nikki Haley further illustrates this consolidation of support.

Weisman also reports Trump’s remarkable victory over Nikki Haley among Republican voters, with about three-quarters of primary voters choosing him, showcasing his authoritative grip on the party. Therefore, it seems that after the New Hampshire primary, Trump has the Republican nomination securely in hand, demonstrating the extent of his influence within the GOP.

Weak Incumbent Biden Faces Uphill Battle Despite Democratic Party Support

In contrast, the Democratic Party faces its own challenges with President ...

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Republican Nomination Contest Effectively Over

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • The Republican Party apparatus encompasses the organizational structure and leadership within the party, including key figures, committees, and decision-making processes. It plays a crucial role in shaping party policies, strategies, and candidate selection for elections. Control over the party apparatus signifies influence over party operations, messaging, and candidate support, which can impact the party's direction and success in elections. In this context, Donald Trump's control of the Republican Party apparatus indicates his significant sway over party decisions, nominations, and overall direction.
  • Trump's victory in the New Hampshire primary was significant as it demonstrated strong support from Republican voters in a key early state, solidifying his position as a frontrunner in the Republican nomination race. This win helped Trump consolidate his influence within the Republican Party and garnered support from prominent party figures, signaling a shift towards his potential nomination. The victory over Nikki Haley in this primary showcased Trump's continued appeal and control over the GOP base, further strengthening his hold on the party apparatus.
  • Biden's weaknesses with key voter groups stem from various factors, including concerns over his policies not being progressive enough for some young and progressive voters. Additionally, there have been criticisms about his handling of issues important to Black and Hispanic communities, leading to some dissatisfaction within these demographics. These factors have contributed to Biden's challenges in fully resonating with and garnering strong support from these crucial voter groups.
  • The Democratic Party leaders ...

Counterarguments

  • While Trump may have won key primaries, the nomination process involves a series of state contests, and it's possible for dynamics to shift as the race progresses.
  • The support of leading Republicans does not necessarily translate to unanimous party support, and there may be undercurrents of opposition or alternative candidates with significant backing.
  • Trump's grip on the party, while strong, may not be absolute, and there could be a silent minority within the party that is looking for a different direction or a new leader.
  • Biden's perceived weaknesses with certain voter groups might be mitigated by policy successes or campaign strategies that could improve his stand ...

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