Trump Triumphs, Biden Leaves THIS WEEKEND?!
This episode of The Ben Shapiro Show explores the themes of political unity and turmoil surrounding the 2024 presidential election. Ben Shapiro analyzes the Republican Party's consolidation behind Donald Trump's candidacy, describing it as an extraordinary political feat achieved by building a broad coalition.
Shapiro also delves into the reported internal divisions within the Democratic Party regarding President Biden's viability as a candidate. The episode touches on speculation around potential successors, including Vice President Kamala Harris, and the challenges of maintaining party unity. Against this backdrop, Trump recounts a harrowing assassination attempt, underscoring the high stakes of the upcoming election.
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1-Page Summary
The Republican Party's Unity Behind Trump for 2024
Ben Shapiro describes how the Republican National Convention showcased the party's unified support for Donald Trump as the 2024 presidential nominee. According to Shapiro, Trump's "triumphant" nomination marks an extraordinary political feat. The RNC built out the Trump coalition by establishing "permission structures" to allow non-traditional Republican voters to feel comfortable supporting him.
Democratic Turmoil and Push for Biden to Exit 2024 Race
Shapiro suggests that Democratic leaders now widely agree Biden remaining in the 2024 race is "untenable" due to concerns over his viability, an unprecedented internal revolt for a candidate with the nomination. Voices like the Wall Street Journal editorial page have hinted Biden should withdraw after his "failed" debate, and key Democrats like Obama fear he can't defeat Trump. Shapiro, citing Biden sources, says Biden feels betrayed, likening it to 2016 when Democrats favored Hillary Clinton over him.
Trump Recounts Assassination Attempt
In his first major post-attempt address, Trump powerfully recounted how a bullet narrowly missed his head at a Pennsylvania rally, striking his ear and causing heavy bleeding. As Secret Service intervened under gunfire, Trump praised the crowd for their bravery in not fleeing. He honored Corey Comparatore, who died shielding his family.
Potential Democratic Nomination Scenarios
If Biden withdraws, Shapiro expects Vice President Kamala Harris to likely become the frontrunner, though she faces vulnerabilities like trailing Trump in swing states polls. Harris's team is preparing a robust campaign, crafting her biography and vetting running mates. However, Axios notes bypassing Harris could be complicated, preserving party unity around the first Black female VP.
1-Page Summary
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- The perception of unity within the Republican Party behind Trump may not be as solid as presented, considering there are Republicans who have expressed concerns about Trump's leadership and the direction he takes the party.
- The concept of "permission structures" might not be sufficient to attract a broad coalition of voters, especially if they are based on short-term political expediency rather than long-term policy agreements.
- It's possible that not all Democratic leaders see Biden's candidacy as untenable; some may believe that his experience and track record make him the best candidate to lead the country.
- The internal discussions within the Democratic Party about Biden's candidacy could be seen as a healthy democratic process rather than simply turmoil or revolt.
- The Wall Street Journal's editorial opinions do not necessarily reflect the views of all voters or even the broader sentiment within the Democratic Party.
- There may be Democrats who believe that Biden can defeat Trump based on different electoral strategies or changing public opinions.
- The recounting of an assassination attempt on Trump could be subject to scrutiny, as the details provided may not have been independently verified or could be exaggerated for political effect.
- The bravery of the crowd during the reported assassination attempt, while commendable, might not be directly relevant to Trump's qualifications for the presidency.
- Vice President Kamala Harris's position as a frontrunner if Biden withdraws is not guaranteed, as the Democratic nomination process is competitive and other candidates could emerge.
- Polls showing Harris trailing Trump in swing states might not be predictive of the actual election outcome, as polls can change over time and do not always capture the full electoral picture.
- The process of preparing a robust campaign for Harris, including crafting her biography and vetting running mates, is standard for any serious presidential campaign and does not necessarily indicate her strength or weakness as a candidate.
- The complexity of bypassing Harris for the Democratic nomination, if Biden withdraws, may not solely be about preserving party unity; it could also involve considerations of electoral strategy, policy alignment, and voter preferences.
Actionables
- You can analyze political strategies by comparing the approaches of different parties or candidates to understand what resonates with voters and why. For instance, if you notice a particular messaging strategy or outreach effort that seems effective, try to identify the core elements that make it successful, such as the emotional appeal or the clarity of the message.
- Enhance your critical thinking skills by evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of potential leaders in hypothetical scenarios. Imagine a leader you admire in a challenging situation, like a debate or a crisis, and think through how they might handle it effectively, considering their past actions and public persona.
- Develop a deeper understanding of political dynamics by creating a hypothetical campaign strategy for a lesser-known candidate. Choose a political figure who might run for office and draft a campaign plan that addresses their vulnerabilities, outlines their key messages, and identifies potential running mates or allies, focusing on how to build a coalition and appeal to a broad range of voters.
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The Republican party's unity and Trump's dominance as the 2024 nominee
According to Ben Shapiro, the Republican National Convention was a showcase of unity within the party, with resounding support for Donald Trump's bid as the 2024 presidential nominee.
The Republican National Convention was a unified show of support for Trump as the party's nominee
Shapiro states that the entire convention demonstrated the Republican Party's total unity, which culminated in a "triumphant presentation of Donald Trump as his party's nominee for the third consecutive time," an achievement he describes as an extraordinary political feat.
The RNC built out the Trump coalition and provided permission structures for non-traditional Republican voters to support Trump
Shapiro talks about the initiatives taken by the RNC to expand the Trump coalition, mentioning the effort to establish "permission structures" for those who have not historically voted for the Republican party to feel comfortable in supporting Trump. He notes the rising willingness of these non-traditional Republican voters across different regions of the country who are now openly stating their intention to vote for Trump.
Trump's performance in the last four weeks before the convention was disciplined, allowing Biden to take the spotlight
In the weeks leading up to the convention, Trump maintained a disciplined performance, Shapiro noted, allowing Joe Biden to take the spotlight. Trump's approach toward unity was evidenced by his assertion that he runs to be the president for all of America, not half, as winning for only a part of the country is not a true victory.
The high enthusiasm for Trump was compared to that for Obama in 2008, as observed by Shapiro referri ...
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The Republican party's unity and Trump's dominance as the 2024 nominee
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- The appearance of unity at the convention may not reflect the views of all Republican voters or elected officials, some of whom have expressed concerns about Trump's leadership and the direction of the party.
- Expanding the coalition and creating permission structures for non-traditional voters is a strategic move, but it remains to be seen how effective this will be in a general election where voter demographics and concerns may differ from those of the party base.
- While Trump's disciplined performance may have allowed Biden to take the spotlight, it could also be argued that this strategy risks diminishing Trump's own media presence and messaging impact.
- Trump's stated intention to be the president for all of America may be contrasted with his previous administration's policies and rhetoric, which some critics argue were divisive.
- Comparing enthusiasm for Trump to that for Obama in 2008 may not take into account the different political contexts and the unique circumstances of ...
Actionables
- You can foster a sense of unity in your community by organizing a non-partisan book club focused on American political history. By selecting books that cover a range of political perspectives and encouraging open, respectful discussions, you'll create an environment where people with different views can find common ground and appreciate the diverse fabric of American political thought.
- Enhance your understanding of political strategies by playing simulation games that involve running a political campaign. Games like these often require you to build coalitions and appeal to a broad range of voters, mirroring the strategies discussed in the context of expanding voter coalitions. This hands-on approach can give you a better grasp of the complexities and tactics used in real-world politics.
- Start a blog or social media page ...
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The Democratic party's turmoil and potential coup against Biden
Ben Shapiro discusses the increasing pressure within the Democratic party for President Joe Biden to step back from running in the 2024 presidential election, pointing to concerns over his performance and viability as a candidate.
Widespread acceptance among Democratic leaders that Biden remaining in the 2024 race is untenable
Shapiro suggests "Joe Biden may very well drop out this weekend," indicating there's a consensus among Democratic leaders that it's untenable for Biden to continue in the 2024 race. Shapiro considers this a potential internal revolt within the Democratic party, something unprecedented for a candidate who has secured the nomination, comparing it to Lyndon B. Johnson's decision in 1968 not to run for reelection. He also observes that this may stem from Biden's "massive decline" over recent years.
Shapiro reports that the Wall Street Journal editorial page and other Democratic voices in the media and Congress have been hinting that Biden should drop out following what many saw as a failed debate performance on June 27th. There is reported widespread agreement among Democrats that Biden should not continue his bid for re-election in 2024.
Further, the editorial suggests that Biden has been isolated since the debate, with advisers forming an exclusive circle around him. Leading Democrats, including Barack Obama, have expressed concern about Biden's ability to win against Donald Trump, and significant figures like House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer have reportedly communicated the risk of Biden costing the Democrats control of Congress.
Biden feels angry and betrayed by the party's attempts to push him out, seeing it as a repeat of 2016 when they favored Hillary Clinton
Biden reportedly feels angry and betrayed by the attempts to push him out, feeling wronged by senior Democratic leaders. A source close to Biden has likened this situation to a repeat of the 2016 election cycle, recalling how Democratic leaders favored Hillary Clinton over him.
Despite the pressure, Biden may resist withdrawing as he retains delegate support that could lead to a nomination. His close associates believe he connects better with American voters than figures like Obama, Pelosi, and Schumer. Biden's camp is characterized by fe ...
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The Democratic party's turmoil and potential coup against Biden
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- Democratic leaders may believe that Biden's experience and leadership are crucial in a time of global instability, and that continuity is more important than change.
- Some Democrats might argue that Biden's bid for re-election should be determined by the voters in the primaries rather than by party elites or media narratives.
- There could be a perspective that the pressure on Biden to step back is not representative of the broader Democratic base, which may still support his candidacy.
- It's possible to argue that Biden's performance and viability as a candidate should be assessed based on a full range of his policy achievements and not solely on recent debates or media appearances.
- There may be a belief that internal party discussions about leadership are a normal part of democratic processes and not necessarily indicative of a "coup" or turmoil.
- Some may contend that Biden's so-called "decline" is overstated or mischaracterized, and that he remains a capable leader.
- There could be a view that media speculation about Biden's potential dropout is premature and not based on direct statements from Biden or his campaign.
- Supporters might argue that Biden has a strong track record and could effectively campaign against any Republican candidate, including Donald Trump.
- Biden's feelings of anger and betrayal, if true, could be seen as a natural human response to perceived disloyalty, rather than a reflection of political weakness.
- The urgency to replace Biden before the August convention ...
Actionables
- You can analyze leadership dynamics by observing your workplace leaders and noting behaviors that align with or contradict the values they publicly endorse. For example, if a manager advocates for transparency but doesn't share important updates with the team, document these instances to understand the impact of such discrepancies on team morale and trust.
- Enhance your decision-making skills by role-playing scenarios where you must choose whether to continue with a challenging project or redirect your efforts. Reflect on factors like your project's viability, potential legacy, and the opinions of your peers to simulate the complex considerations leaders may face.
- Improve your conflict resolution abilitie ...
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The assassination attempt on Trump and his response
Donald Trump recounted the harrowing details of an assassination attempt against him and reflected on its impact during a public address.
Trump powerfully recounted the details of the assassination attempt and his narrow escape
During his first major public address since the incident, Donald Trump shared his near-death experience. He recounted how, during a Pennsylvania campaign event, a bullet came within a quarter of an inch of taking his life. The evening was warm and beautiful, surrounded by a cheerful crowd, when suddenly he heard a loud whizzing noise, felt a hard hit on his right ear, and saw blood upon touching it. Trump described the situation as too painful to retell but went on to outline the moments of terror as Secret Service agents rushed to protect him under gunfire.
Trump described the bullet whizzing by his head and the blood pouring from his injured ear
Wearing a bandage on his ear, Trump vividly described the bullet whizzing past and how heavy bleeding ensued. He noted that the ears bleed profusely, a detail shared by doctors following the incident. Against this backdrop, Trump conveyed to the audience the vivid imagery of the shooting—recounting the whizzing sound of the bullet and the sight of his blood-covered hand.
He praised the bravery of the crowd, who did not flee even as shots were fired
Trump highlighted the courage of the rally attendees who, instead of panicking or running away, stood their ground and assisted in pointing out the sniper's position. He expressed deep gratitude towards the crowd, noting their decision to remain with him, and was moved by the love and concern ...
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The assassination attempt on Trump and his response
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Clarifications
- Corey Comparatore was a former fire chief who shielded his family during the assassination attempt. David Dutch and James Copenhaver were individuals seriously wounded in the incident. Trump honored Comparatore's sacrifice and mentioned Dutch and Copenhaver in his speech. Comp ...
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Potential scenarios for the Democratic nomination if Biden withdraws
With speculation about President Biden's potential withdrawal from the 2024 Democratic nomination race, the scenario raises questions about Vice President Kamala Harris's chances and alternatives.
Kamala Harris would likely be the frontrunner, but faces significant vulnerabilities
Even if nominated, Kamala Harris is expected to face significant electoral challenges. Ben Shapiro asserts it’s likely Joe Biden will not be the 2024 nominee. While according to CNN's Harry Enten, Harris could stand a better chance than Biden, she still trails Trump in key swing states. The Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling indicates that although Harris could defeat a Republican ticket in two of the three blue wall states, Pennsylvania and Michigan, the right running mate is crucial. While Trump leads Biden by one point in Michigan and four points in Pennsylvania, Harris replacing Biden worsens Democrats' chance in Michigan, with Trump leading by five points. Conversely, in Pennsylvania, she cuts Trump's lead in half.
Harris's campaign development and strategies
Despite not being expected to receive Biden's endorsement, Vice President Harris’s team is reportedly preparing to build a robust political operation. This involves crafting a compelling personal biography that extends beyond her defense of abortion rights and creating talking points around her political accomplishments. Additionally, Harris is preemptively vetting possible running mates, which showcases the existence of her campaign infrastructure and indicates presumed support within the ...
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Potential scenarios for the Democratic nomination if Biden withdraws
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- Harris being the frontrunner is not guaranteed; other candidates could emerge with stronger support bases.
- While Harris may face electoral challenges, it's possible that her campaign could address these effectively over time.
- Enten's analysis might be too early, as public opinion can shift significantly during a campaign.
- Harris trailing Trump in key swing states could change with the right campaign strategy and messaging.
- The importance of the right running mate could be overstated if voters focus more on the top of the ticket.
- Harris's ability to defeat a Republican ticket in Pennsylvania and Michigan is contingent on various factors, including campaign dynamics and voter turnout.
- The worsening of Democrats' chances in Michigan with Harris as the nominee could be mitigated by changing political landscapes or unforeseen events.
- The notion that Harris cuts Trump's lead in half in Pennsylvania could be based on early data that might not hold until the election.
- Building a robust political operation is a standard procedure for any serious candidate and does not guarantee electoral success.
- Crafting a compelling personal biography and political accomplishments could be perceived differently by various voter demographics.
- Preemptively vetting possible running mates could be seen as presumptuous or alienate potential allies.
- The complication of bypassing Harris for another candidate might be overstated if another cand ...
Actionables
- You can analyze political strategies by role-playing as a campaign manager, creating a mock campaign for a candidate of your choice, focusing on selecting a running mate and crafting a compelling narrative. This exercise helps you understand the complexities of political campaigning and the importance of strategic decisions.
- Engage in critical thinking by comparing different political scenarios, such as what might happen if a leading candidate withdraws from a race. Write down potential outcomes and discuss them with friends to better grasp the dynamics of political succession and the impact of such events on electoral chances.
- Improve your decision-making skills by setting up a fantasy ...
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