The Debate Is COMING
In this episode of The Ben Shapiro Show, Shapiro provides an overview of the upcoming presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. He analyzes the challenges each candidate faces and offers strategies, such as Trump highlighting Biden's record and Biden aiming to appear coherent. Shapiro also examines the latest polling data, shifting demographics, and factors that could impact the election outcome.
The episode delves into controversies surrounding Trump's criminal conviction and allegations of threats to democracy, as well as Biden's response to the fentanyl crisis. Shapiro suggests how the candidates could address these issues during the debate. He emphasizes that voters' economic perceptions and potential conflicts or attacks could significantly influence the results.
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1-Page Summary
The Upcoming Presidential Debate Between Donald Trump and Joe Biden
According to Ben Shapiro, the presidential debate is of great importance as the race between Trump and Biden remains extremely tight. The debate could serve as a critical inflection point.
Debate Challenges and Expectations
Trump faces challenges like hostile moderators, no audience, and muted microphones. Meanwhile, low expectations have been set for Biden; simply speaking coherently could be considered a win for him.
Potential Strategies
Shapiro advises Trump to label Biden as dishonest, tyrannical, and incompetent by highlighting lies, executive actions, and failures like inflation. He suggests letting Biden speak extensively to expose any inability to defend policies. For Trump, attacking Hunter Biden would be a mistake; the focus should remain on Joe Biden's failures.
Polling data and election predictions
Shapiro expresses doubt about confident election predictions, stating that both candidates are within the margin of error in national polls and that state polls lack clarity.
Shifting Independent and Demographic Support
Shapiro notes a Fox News poll showing independents moving from Trump to Biden. While Biden has older voters and women, Trump remains strong among men, rural voters, white non-college men, and white evangelicals. Shapiro also mentions Biden's waning black and Hispanic female support but continued favor from white college-educated left-leaning voters.
Outlier Emerson polls show Trump leading in swing states like Arizona and Pennsylvania, highlighting potential polling inconsistencies.
Controversies and criticisms surrounding the candidates
Shapiro suggests debate strategies for Trump regarding his criminal conviction, countering threats to democracy allegations, and addressing the [restricted term] crisis:
Trump's Conviction
Frame the conviction as partisan overreach by Biden-allied prosecutors while highlighting lack of prosecution over Biden's mishandling of classified documents.
Democracy Threats
Defend by accusing Biden of undemocratic executive overreach like vaccine mandates and unaccountable governance serving only Democratic interests.
[restricted term] Crisis
Challenge Biden's claim of working with China by citing reports of ineffective Chinese efforts and unaddressed U.S. border issues facilitating [restricted term] trafficking.
External factors that could impact the election
According to Shapiro, voters' economic perceptions could boost Biden if the economy improves. Conversely, major conflicts or attacks might benefit Trump by raising national security concerns about Biden's leadership.
1-Page Summary
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- The importance of the presidential debate can be overstated; some argue that debates rarely change the overall trajectory of an election.
- Hostile moderators and debate format challenges could be seen as part of the test of a candidate's ability to handle pressure and adversity.
- Low expectations for Biden could be a narrative pushed by opponents to set a low bar that any competent performance can surpass.
- Labeling Biden as dishonest, tyrannical, and incompetent may not resonate with voters who view him as a moderate and experienced politician.
- Focusing on Joe Biden's failures without acknowledging successes or the complexity of the issues may not provide a balanced view to the electorate.
- Polling data, while within the margin of error, may not fully capture the sentiment of the electorate due to underrepresented demographics or changing opinions.
- The shift of independents from Trump to Biden could be more nuanced, with some independents supporting Biden's policies or disapproving of Trump's behavior.
- Trump's support among certain demographics does not necessarily translate to a disadvantage for Biden, as voter turnout and changing demographics can influence election outcomes.
- The waning support from black and Hispanic females for Biden could be offset by gains in other demographic groups or by policy proposals that appeal to these voters.
- Outlier polls should be interpreted with caution as they may not represent the broader consensus among polling data.
- Framing Trump's conviction as partisan overreach may not address the substance of the conviction or the legal process that led to it.
- Accusations of undemocratic executive overreach against Biden could be countered with examples of bipartisan support for his actions or the legal justification for executive orders.
- The effectiveness of Biden's work with China on the [restricted term] crisis could be debated with specific policy analysis and outcomes rather than broad criticisms.
- Economic perceptions are complex and attributing improvements solely to the incumbent may overlook other factors influencing the economy.
- The impact of major conflicts or attacks on election outcomes can be unpredictable, and voters may have diverse views on which candidate is better suited to handle national security.
Actionables
- You can enhance your critical thinking by analyzing the debate strategies of political candidates and applying them to everyday discussions. Start by observing how politicians frame their arguments and rebuttals, then practice similar techniques in your own conversations, focusing on clear communication and strategic responses rather than personal attacks.
- Develop a habit of researching beyond headlines by diving into polling data and statistics related to current events. When you come across a news story, especially about political races or public opinion, take the time to look up the source data and understand the methodology behind the polls to form a more informed opinion.
- Engage in community discussions to better understand the diverse perspectives of different demographic groups. Join online forums or local groups where you can listen to and participate in conversations with people from various backgrounds, such as rural voters or minority communities, to gain a broader understanding of the issues that matter to them.
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The Upcoming Presidential Debate Between Donald Trump and Joe Biden
As the race heats up, the upcoming presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is of crucial importance with potential strategies and factors influencing each candidate’s debate performance coming into the spotlight. Ben Shapiro offers insights into what each candidate could potentially face and the strategies they might employ to come out on top.
Importance of the Debate
Shapiro states that the race is extremely tight and the debate could serve as a critical inflection point, emphasizing that it could significantly influence the future trajectory of the race. The upcoming debate is noted as one of the few possible inflection points left in this close presidential race.
Factors that may influence the debate performance
Shapiro notes that Trump has to contend with challenges including the moderators who are against him, the absence of an enthusiastic audience, and muted microphones, which could limit his ability to interject with quick remarks. For Biden, the pundits have set low expectations for his performance; if he can simply speak coherently and not collapse, it could be considered a win for him due to these low perceptions set from past debates.
Potential Debate Strategies
According to Shapiro, Trump's team is preparing a rhetorical approach rather than focusing on policy. Shapiro outlines Trump's strategy, advising him to establish Biden as dishonest, highlighting instances where Biden has lied in previous debates. He also suggests Trump should label Biden as tyrannical by commenting on his record of executive orders and as incompetent by pointing to issues such as inflation and foreign policy conflicts.
For Trump, the strategy involves turning up the pressure on Biden’s refusal to release the tape of his ...
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The Upcoming Presidential Debate Between Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- The significance of a single debate in influencing the overall trajectory of a presidential race can be overstated, as voters may have already formed strong opinions or may be influenced by a variety of factors beyond the debate.
- Moderators are expected to be impartial, and any perceived bias could be a reflection of the candidates' own perceptions rather than an objective reality.
- The presence of an enthusiastic audience or the use of muted microphones are debate logistics that can affect both candidates equally and are often implemented to ensure a more orderly and substantive discussion.
- Setting low expectations for a candidate can be a double-edged sword, as it may lower the bar for their performance but also potentially underestimate their ability to perform well in debates.
- Focusing on rhetorical strategies and personal attacks may detract from substantive policy discussions that are important to the electorate.
- Pressuring an opponent to release private interviews or recordings may raise ethical and legal considerations, and such tactics may not resonate with voters concerned about policy issues.
- Challenging an opponent's claims is a standard debate tactic, but it should be done with accurate information and respect for the truth.
- Avoiding p ...
Actionables
- You can enhance your critical thinking by analyzing political debates with friends, focusing on the strategies used by each candidate rather than their political stances. Gather a group of friends to watch a recorded debate, pause at key moments, and discuss the effectiveness of each candidate's approach to addressing challenges, such as handling difficult questions or staying on message. This can help you understand the art of persuasion and argumentation in real-time scenarios.
- Develop your public speaking skills by practicing debate tactics in a low-stakes environment, like a book club or discussion group. Choose a topic from a recent debate, prepare points as if you were one of the candidates, and present them to the group. Encourage the group to provide feedback on your ability to stay focused on the topic, handle interruptions, and maintain composure, which are key skills for any public speaking situation.
- Improve your ability to set and manage expectations by role-playing ...
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Polling data and election predictions
Ben Shapiro casts doubt on declared election predictions and indicates a close presidential race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, underscoring the sheer unpredictability of the upcoming election results.
Tight race with Biden and Trump within margin of error
Shapiro states that anyone confidently claiming to know the future president or asserting that one candidate is distinctly favored is not telling the truth. The race is so close that both candidates are within the margin of error in national polls, with state-level polls lacking recent updates to provide clear leads for either candidate.
Trends in independent and demographic support
Shapiro discusses shifting trends among voters, noting that according to a Fox News poll, there is a movement among independents away from Donald Trump and towards Joe Biden. While Biden garners support from older voters and women, Trump maintains strong backing from men, rural voters, white men without a college degree, and white evangelical Christians.
Shift towards Biden among independents
Shapiro reveals a gap in the political leanings of men and single women, a gap that he believes has significant implications for the political landscape. While he doesn't directly mention an independent voter shift toward Biden in the transcript provided, Shapiro suggests that the Democratic Party's preservation depends on Biden's appeal, implying that such a shift is indeed occurring.
Stronger support for Trump among men, rural voters, white evangelicals
The commentator also points out that Trump's support amo ...
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Polling data and election predictions
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- Polling accuracy can vary, and polls have been wrong before, as seen in the 2016 election.
- National polls may not be the best indicators of election outcomes due to the Electoral College system.
- The margin of error could be misleading if the distribution of support is not uniform across different states.
- Independents' preferences can be volatile and may change before the election.
- Demographic support can shift, and past trends may not predict future behavior.
- The strength of support does not necessarily translate to voter turnout, which is crucial for election outcomes.
- Outlier polls may sometimes capture trends that other polls miss, but they can also be statistical anomalies.
- The interpretati ...
Actionables
- Engage in informed discussions by researching the demographic trends influencing voter behavior. You can start by looking at the demographic shifts in your own community and compare them with national trends. For example, if you notice an increase in college-educated residents in your area, consider how this might affect local and national elections based on the assertion that white college-educated voters tend to lean left.
- Foster understanding across different voter bases by initiating conversations with people from varied demographics. If you're a woman who typically supports Biden, try to understand the perspective of men in rural areas who may support Trump. This can be done through social media groups, community forums, or by attending local events where you can engage with a diverse group of people.
- Use the unpredictability of election results t ...
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Controversies and criticisms surrounding the candidates
New polling has indicated a slight advantage for Joe Biden, potentially related to Donald Trump’s legal issues.
Trump's criminal conviction
During discussions about Trump's conviction on business fraud, Shapiro suggests Trump's debate preparations should include strategies to frame the conviction effectively. While the debate preparations do not involve direct strategies regarding Biden's lack of prosecution, Shapiro hints that Trump could highlight the contrast between his ongoing legal battles and the absence of prosecutions against Biden. Shapiro implies a double standard in legal treatment, suggesting that a comparison of legal scrutiny could be a topic during the debates.
Furthermore, Shapiro advises that if Biden brings up the conviction, Trump might counter by emphasizing that his conviction was handed down by Democrat-aligned legal figures in a heavily Democratic district, while the Department of Justice under Biden has not pursued Biden's mishandling of classified documents.
Allegations of threats to democracy
In countering accusations of threatening democracy, Shapiro proposes that Trump defend himself by pointing out Biden's use of executive power. He suggests Trump accuse Biden of using political allies to pursue legal action and offering Hunter Biden a deal while targeting Trump. Shapiro argues that such actions represent a real threat to democracy.
Shapiro predicts that if Biden implies Trump poses a threat to democracy, Trump should present Biden's executive orders, like the OSHA vaccine mandates, student loan forgiveness, and immigration policies, as examples of undemocratic behavior. Shapiro alleges that Biden has established an unaccountable fourth branch of government only answerable to the executive when the executive is a Democrat.
[ ...
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Controversies and criticisms surrounding the candidates
Additional Materials
Clarifications
- The [restricted term] crisis in the U.S. involves a surge in overdoses linked to synthetic opioids like [restricted term], often trafficked from China. China has been a major source of precursor chemicals used to manufacture [restricted term], contributing to the crisis. Efforts to combat this crisis include bipartisan measures targeting China's role in [restricted term] trafficking and addressing weaknesses in international cooperation on drug control.
- The concept of an "unaccountable fourth branch of government" typically alludes to the idea that certain actions or decisions made by the executive branch, particularly through executive orders or agencies, may exceed the traditional checks and balances of the three branches of government (executive, legislative, and judicial). This noti ...
Counterarguments
- The advantage in polling for Joe Biden could be attributed to a variety of factors, not just Donald Trump's legal issues, such as policy successes or public approval of his administration's actions.
- The framing of Trump's business fraud conviction could be seen as an attempt to deflect from the substance of the legal findings rather than addressing the conviction's merits.
- The absence of prosecutions against Biden could be due to a lack of evidence or wrongdoing, rather than a double standard in legal treatment.
- The conviction by Democrat-aligned legal figures does not necessarily indicate bias if the conviction was based on solid evidence and legal grounds.
- The Department of Justice's decision not to pursue Biden's mishandling of classified documents could be based on different circumstances or evidentiary standards compared to Trump's case.
- The use of executive power is a common practice among presidents, and Biden's actions could be argued as within the scope of executive authority and subject to judicial review.
- Executive orders have been used by presidents of both parties and can be challenged in court if deemed overreaching, which is a check on executive power.
- The establishment of a so-called unaccountable fourth branch of government could be debated as a mischaracterization of regulatory agencies that exist within the framework of checks and balances.
- Cooperation with China on [restricted term] trafficking could be part of a broader strategy of engagement ...
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External factors that could impact the election
The outcome of elections can often be influenced by external factors beyond the control of the candidates. Shapiro outlines two scenarios that might affect voter perception and shift the dynamics of the upcoming election.
Potential economic improvement
Shapiro indicates that the state of the economy plays a critical role in shaping voter sentiment and support for incumbent politicians. If voters begin to perceive that the economic conditions in the country are improving, it could sway public opinion in favor of the sitting president, potentially bolstering support for Biden. Economic recovery and the perception of financial stability can be decisive factors that influence voters who may have otherwise been undecided or inclined to support a challenger.
Major international conflicts or attacks
In contrast, Shapiro also posits that external crises such as major international conflicts or serious attac ...
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External factors that could impact the election
Additional Materials
Clarifications
- External factors like the state of the economy, major international conflicts, natural disasters, scandals, and public health crises have historically influenced elections by shaping voter perceptions and priorities. These factors can impact how voters view incumbent politicians and their challengers, influencing their decisions at the polls. Candidates often adjust their messaging and strategies in response to these external events to capitalize on opportunities or mitigate challenges. Understanding the historical context of how external factors have influenced elections can provide insights into potential outcomes and voter behavior in upcoming elections.
- The impact of economic conditions on voter sentiment is significant because voters often assess the state of the economy when evaluating incumbent politicians. Positive economic indicators can boost support ...
Counterarguments
- While economic improvement often sways public opinion toward the incumbent, it is not the only factor voters consider; issues such as social policies, healthcare, and education can also be pivotal.
- The perception of economic recovery may not be uniform across all voter demographics, and some groups may feel left behind even if overall economic indicators are positive.
- Voters may credit economic improvements to policies set by previous administrations or attribute them to global market trends rather than the actions of the current president.
- The impact of major international conflicts or attacks on election outcomes can be complex; while some voters may rally around the incumbent as a show of unity, others may criticize the administration for failing to prevent such events.
- Voters may prioritize different aspects of foreign policy and national security, and not all may view Trump's approach as favorable; some may prefer diplomatic or multilateral strategies that they associate with Biden.
- The effectiveness of a president's response to crises is subject to interpretation, and some voters may believe that Biden's appr ...
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