Selects: How Futurology Works

Black Swans are extremely unpredictable events that have massive impacts on human society. These include positive Black Swans, like the invention of the Internet and the discovery of antibiotics, as well as negative Black Swans, like the 2008 recession.

Black Swans compel people to explain why they happened—to show, after the fact, that they were indeed predictable. Taleb’s thesis, however, is that Black Swans, by their very nature, are always unpredictable. Furthermore, because of our cognitive biases, we’re more vulnerable than ever to misunderstanding Black Swans and their impact.

Learn what Black Swans are, why we’re susceptible to them, and how best to prepare yourself for the unpredictable.

For millennia, humans struggled with three serious problems—famine, plagues, and war—which led to the deaths of millions of people and to the rise and fall of global empires. People coped with these problems and answered life's questions with religion. However, in the modern era, we no longer rely on prayer—we’ve mostly overcome these three problems through the development of technology and medical knowledge.

In Homo Deus, Yuval Noah Harari, a professor at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, envisions a future in which technology replaces humanist ideals and liberal government. Dissecting the concepts of religion, immortality, and technology, Harari argues that the world of the future may be run by advanced algorithms and artificial intelligence, not human beings.

Every day, you make predictions, like when traffic will be heaviest on your route to work or whether the value of a company’s stock will increase or decrease. We use the information from these predictions to guide our decisions. But how can we ensure that we’re making the best predictions possible?

In Superforecasting, authors Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner explore that question by analyzing the strategies of 'superforecasters,' volunteer analysts who predict the likelihood of global events with impressive accuracy. In this guide, we’ll explore the traits and tactics that make superforecasters so “super” and how you can use them to improve your own predictions. We’ll also compare the authors’ approach to predicting the future to those of other influential thinkers like Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

In Lead from the Future, business strategists Mark W. Johnson and Josh Suskewicz argue that to drastically improve your organization's chances of successful growth in the long term, you must anticipate and shape the future rather than simply react to challenges as they arise.

Drawing on insights from their research and experience working with prominent companies, Johnson and Suskewicz provide a practical, three-stage framework that enables you to stay ahead of your competition and unlock new possibilities for your organization. In this guide, we’ll explore their thoughts on how you can adopt a future-oriented mindset, anticipate and shape future trends, and create innovative solutions that drive growth and success in a rapidly changing world. We also share ideas from other business experts, innovative thinkers, and sociology writers so you can better understand and adopt the visionary planning process.

Black Swans are extremely unpredictable events that have massive impacts on human society. These include positive Black Swans, like the invention of the Internet and the discovery of antibiotics, as well as negative Black Swans, like the 2008 recession.

Black Swans compel people to explain why they happened—to show, after the fact, that they were indeed predictable. Taleb’s thesis, however, is that Black Swans, by their very nature, are always unpredictable. Furthermore, because of our cognitive biases, we’re more vulnerable than ever to misunderstanding Black Swans and their impact.

Learn what Black Swans are, why we’re susceptible to them, and how best to prepare yourself for the unpredictable.

Black Swans are extremely unpredictable events that have massive impacts on human society. These include positive Black Swans, like the invention of the Internet and the discovery of antibiotics, as well as negative Black Swans, like the 2008 recession.

Black Swans compel people to explain why they happened—to show, after the fact, that they were indeed predictable. Taleb’s thesis, however, is that Black Swans, by their very nature, are always unpredictable. Furthermore, because of our cognitive biases, we’re more vulnerable than ever to misunderstanding Black Swans and their impact.

Learn what Black Swans are, why we’re susceptible to them, and how best to prepare yourself for the unpredictable.

Every day, you make predictions, like when traffic will be heaviest on your route to work or whether the value of a company’s stock will increase or decrease. We use the information from these predictions to guide our decisions. But how can we ensure that we’re making the best predictions possible?

In Superforecasting, authors Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner explore that question by analyzing the strategies of 'superforecasters,' volunteer analysts who predict the likelihood of global events with impressive accuracy. In this guide, we’ll explore the traits and tactics that make superforecasters so “super” and how you can use them to improve your own predictions. We’ll also compare the authors’ approach to predicting the future to those of other influential thinkers like Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

The 21st century will bring changes and challenges unlike any humans have encountered before. Globalism and technological innovations are changing the structures of societies worldwide—and the changes are happening quickly. If people don’t face these challenges and help shape the future, the world could have a class of obsolete workers whose jobs have been automated and people could lose their ability to make their own decisions. In 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, Yuval Noah Harari highlights the biggest challenges in the modern world, and he offers advice on making sense of and navigating such transitional times.

In this summary, you'll learn how algorithms like Netflix movie recommendations are teaching you to distrust your own judgment, why religion can’t solve 21st-century challenges, and how automation will threaten the jobs of humans in every industry.

Black Swans are extremely unpredictable events that have massive impacts on human society. These include positive Black Swans, like the invention of the Internet and the discovery of antibiotics, as well as negative Black Swans, like the 2008 recession.

Black Swans compel people to explain why they happened—to show, after the fact, that they were indeed predictable. Taleb’s thesis, however, is that Black Swans, by their very nature, are always unpredictable. Furthermore, because of our cognitive biases, we’re more vulnerable than ever to misunderstanding Black Swans and their impact.

Learn what Black Swans are, why we’re susceptible to them, and how best to prepare yourself for the unpredictable.

Every day, you make predictions, like when traffic will be heaviest on your route to work or whether the value of a company’s stock will increase or decrease. We use the information from these predictions to guide our decisions. But how can we ensure that we’re making the best predictions possible?

In Superforecasting, authors Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner explore that question by analyzing the strategies of 'superforecasters,' volunteer analysts who predict the likelihood of global events with impressive accuracy. In this guide, we’ll explore the traits and tactics that make superforecasters so “super” and how you can use them to improve your own predictions. We’ll also compare the authors’ approach to predicting the future to those of other influential thinkers like Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

The rapid pace of technological change has impacted our lives and our world in many ways, and our headlong rush into the future may have staggering implications for our species. In The Singularity Is Near, computer scientist Ray Kurzweil predicts that a profound technological shift will change everything about how we live, how society functions, and even what it means to be human. From using genetics to reprogram the body to having the power to digitally augment our brains, the technological Singularity will lead to a future in which even death may one day be forgotten.

In this guide, we’ll explore the ongoing revolutions that together may overturn our current order—bioscience, nanotechnology, and artificial intelligence. We’ll examine Kurzweil’s predictions for these technologies, as well as some of their potential dangers. As the book was published in 2005, we’ll also look at how well Kurzweil’s predictions hold up and the different paths that some technologies have taken.