In this Stuff You Should Know episode, the hosts explore the Silurian Hypothesis, a thought experiment examining how evidence of ancient civilizations could potentially be detected on Earth. They delve into the immense challenges posed by erosive forces that erase physical traces over millennia, from ruins to fossils, as well as the scarcity of fossilization.
The episode touches on potential "techno-fossils" like plastic that might persist as markers of human activity. It also discusses geological and geochemical signals that could hint at the existence of past industrial societies, such as atmospheric carbon buildup and temperature changes preserved in the geological record. While acknowledging the uncertainties involved, the conversation provokes thought about what clues, if any, might remain of civilizations that preceded modern humans.
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The Silurian Hypothesis, proposed by astrophysicist Adam Frank and NASA scientist Gavin Schmidt, is a thought experiment examining the possibility of detecting remnants of ancient civilizations on Earth. It originated from a discussion about finding evidence of such civilizations beyond Earth, with Schmidt suggesting applying the same approach to our own planet.
The hypothesis explores how we could detect signs of advanced societies that preceded us. However, the hosts note the unfortunate naming decision - a reference to a fictional race in Doctor Who - undermines the seriousness of the academic exercise.
Discovering evidence of ancient civilizations poses immense challenges due to Earth's erosive processes concealing potential clues over millennia.
Physical evidence like cities and structures would likely disappear due to erosion and corrosion. Ruins underwater or buried might survive, though only 2.7-2.8% of Earth is currently urbanized.
Fossilization is extremely rare, with only 0.1% of all species fossilized. Despite this scarcity, fossils like Australopithecus anamensis offer a window into our distant past.
Our modern era may leave "techno-fossils" like plastics and bricks. Josh Clark speculates these artificial materials could mark human activity for future civilizations.
Human activities leave distinct markers in the geological record. The podcast discusses how past events like the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) - characterized by massive carbon dioxide release and global temperature rise - could indicate impacts from ancient industrial civilizations.
The rapid pace of modern climate change, causing extinctions and atmospheric carbon buildup, may also create a pronounced signal in future geological records, as suggested by Clark and Bryant.
They also acknowledge the potential for nuclear war to leave a significant geological marker, and the billion-year gap in Earth's geological record that complicates interpretation of such signals.
1-Page Summary
The Silurian Hypothesis, proposed as a serious academic thought experiment, examines the possibility of detecting remnants of ancient civilizations on Earth.
Astrophysicist Adam Frank and NASA scientist Gavin Schmidt proposed what they called the Silurian Hypothesis as a way to think about how one might detect evidence of long-gone civilizations on Earth. The idea originated from a discussion about finding evidence of such civilizations beyond Earth. Josh Clark points out that Frank and Schmidt were the first to seriously consider the notion that Earth could have hosted previous intelligent civilizations and suggests that the hypothesis helps guide us in understanding what signals our current civilization might leave behind.
While discussing the hypothesis, the podcast host Josh Clark notes that he would rename the Silurian Hypothesis if he could, indicating his belief that the current name was a poor choice. The name, derived from a race of lizard people in the "Doctor Who" series, who supposedly lived around 300 million years ago during the Carboniferous period, not the actual Silurian geological period, seems to be at odds with the serious nature of the scientific inquiry proposed by Frank and Schmidt. The hosts feel that the reference to the fictional Doctor Who race lends an ...
The Silurian Hypothesis and its origins
Discovering evidence of ancient civilizations poses significant challenges due to Earth’s dynamic processes eroding and concealing potential clues over millennia.
Physical evidence of ancient civilizations left on Earth's surface, like cities and structures, would likely disappear over time due to processes like erosion and corrosion. Ruins along water bodies, such as the under-sea-level New Orleans, might be covered by sediment, potentially preserving a city in some form. Yet, most of Earth hasn't been urbanized, as liberal estimates suggest only about 2.7-2.8% urbanization, indicating ancient civilizations might not have occupied a large percentage of the Earth.
The Earth's surface has been recycled countless times, with its oldest stretch being less than 2 million years old. Over time, processes like the movement of earthworms through the soil can erode evidence, causing potential indications of ancient civilizations to return to square one. Subterranean infrastructure, like networks of pipes, would also eventually succumb to erosion due to earth movements and geological processes.
Fossilization is a rare occurrence, with estimates that only 0.1% of all species that have existed have been fossilized. This rarity, coupled with the difficulty of discovery, makes finding biological evidence of an ancient intelligent species an immense challenge. Despite the infrequency of fossilization, fossils such as Australopithecus anamensis, dating around four and a half million years ago, have been discovered.
Fossils offer a window to our distant past, but their scarcity showcases the challenges in retrieving such data. For instance, despite approximately 2.5 billion individual T-Rexes existing during their 2.5 million year reign, only about 50 fossilized skeletons have been found.
Our modern era may leave behind "techno-fossils," such as smartphones and plastic grocery bags. However, items significantly more likel ...
Potential evidence for ancient civilizations
The podcast features discussions on how human activities leave distinct markers in the geological record, pointing to the possibility that past events, such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, could indicate the impact of an ancient industrial civilization.
The podcast delves into the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), which took place about 56 million years ago, marking a massive increase in global temperatures. Sea surface temperatures in the Arctic during the PETM were comparable to those of the Gulf of Mexico today. This event, characterized by a large release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, led to sea-level rise, mass extinctions, and substantial climatic alterations. The PETM lasted around 100,000 years and was not unique; similar events occurred throughout the Cretaceous, Jurassic, and Paleozoic eras, as well as more in the last six million years. These repeated incidents, sharing similar characteristics, may indicate substantial impacts from potential ancient civilizations.
The present-day impacts of human activities, such as climate change, may be similarly detectable in the future geological record. Clark and Bryant discuss how the sedimentary record of the future may indicate traces of this era through unusual spikes, such as elevated levels of nitrogen and polymers from plastics. Radioactivity, especially from nuclear tests, could also be a marker, with elements like plutonium-244 and iodine-129 potentially leaving signals in the geological record for millions of years. The discussion also contemplates whether direct traces—like fossils or elements—or the impressions an ancient civilization left on Earth are better indicators of its existence.
Geochemical and geological markers
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