Podcasts > Shawn Ryan Show > #207 Augustus Doricko - CEO of Rainmaker: Manipulating the Weather

#207 Augustus Doricko - CEO of Rainmaker: Manipulating the Weather

By Shawn Ryan Show

On the Shawn Ryan Show, Augustus Doricko of Rainmaker discusses cloud seeding—a weather modification technology that has evolved from its 1946 origins to modern applications. The discussion covers the technology's development, from early military use in Vietnam to its current implementation using drones and radar systems to induce precipitation in water-scarce regions.

Doricko explains how cloud seeding works, its effectiveness in addressing water scarcity, and its potential impact on agriculture and wildfire prevention. The conversation also addresses public concerns about weather modification, including questions about regulation, potential weaponization, and disputes over water rights. Notable statistics are presented, such as cloud seeding's cost advantage over desalination and its measured impact on Utah's water supply.

#207 Augustus Doricko - CEO of Rainmaker: Manipulating the Weather

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#207 Augustus Doricko - CEO of Rainmaker: Manipulating the Weather

1-Page Summary

History and Development of Cloud Seeding Technology

Cloud seeding began in 1946 when American scientists Irving Langmuir, Bernard Vonnegut, and Vincent Schaeffer successfully modified weather conditions, causing snowfall over the Appalachian Mountains. The technology later saw military application during the Vietnam War through Operation Popeye, which aimed to extend the monsoon season over the Ho Chi Minh Trail. Early efforts to measure cloud seeding's effectiveness were hampered by technological limitations, including the absence of satellites and radar.

Current Cloud Seeding Operations and Capabilities

Since 2017, companies like Rainmaker have demonstrated conclusive evidence of cloud seeding's effectiveness. Augustus Doricko explains that Rainmaker uses sophisticated technology, including weather-resistant drones and novel radar hardware, to detect water in clouds and release silver iodide, which induces precipitation. Their operations have shown significant results, particularly in Utah, where the Department of Natural Resources measured that cloud seeding produced 186,000 acre-feet of water in one year—about 6% of the state's water consumption. The company operates under strict regulation by state agencies to prevent risks such as flooding or avalanches.

Potential Benefits of Cloud Seeding

According to Doricko, cloud seeding offers promising solutions for water scarcity and food insecurity. The technology could prevent water conflicts and improve agricultural output in areas like California's Central Valley. It also aids in wildfire prevention by maintaining soil moisture and vegetation health. Notably, cloud seeding presents a significant cost advantage over desalination, producing water at roughly one-fortieth of the cost.

Potential Risks and Concerns Around Weather Modification

The technology's history of military use, as demonstrated by Operation Popeye, has raised concerns about weaponization. Some regions, including Tennessee and Florida, have banned cloud seeding due to public mistrust and lack of understanding. Doricko addresses concerns about potential conflicts over "cloud water rights" and emphasizes the need for federal regulation. The podcast highlights the importance of careful implementation and regulation to prevent negative effects while maximizing benefits.

1-Page Summary

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Operation Popeye was a highly classified weather modification program conducted by the U.S. military during the Vietnam War. Its purpose was to extend the monsoon season over the Ho Chi Minh Trail, a vital supply route for North Vietnamese forces. By increasing rainfall through cloud seeding, the operation aimed to disrupt enemy logistics and transportation, making the trail impassable. The program's goal was to create muddy conditions that would hinder the movement of supplies and equipment, ultimately impeding the enemy's ability to operate effectively in the region.
  • Measurement of cloud seeding effectiveness historically faced challenges due to the absence of advanced technologies like satellites and radar. Satellites and radar play crucial roles in modern cloud seeding operations by providing detailed information on cloud composition and behavior. These technologies enable scientists to monitor and assess the impact of cloud seeding efforts more accurately. Their integration has significantly improved the understanding and evaluation of cloud seeding outcomes over time.
  • Cloud water rights pertain to the ownership and control of water generated through cloud seeding activities. Potential conflicts may arise when different entities, such as states or private companies, seek to claim rights over the water produced by cloud seeding. This issue can lead to disputes over access, usage, and distribution of the artificially induced precipitation. Federal regulation is crucial to address these conflicts and establish clear guidelines for managing cloud water rights.
  • Cloud seeding technology has raised concerns about potential weaponization due to its ability to manipulate weather patterns. The history of military applications, such as Operation Popeye during the Vietnam War, has fueled worries about using cloud seeding for strategic or harmful purposes. These concerns stem from the power to influence precipitation levels, which could potentially be exploited for military advantage or to cause environmental disruptions. Regulations and oversight are crucial to ensure that cloud seeding is used responsibly and ethically, mitigating the risks associated with its misuse.
  • Federal regulation in cloud seeding operations is crucial to ensure safety, accountability, and ethical practices. It helps in managing potential risks such as environmental impacts, water rights conflicts, and public health concerns. By setting standards and guidelines, federal regulation aims to prevent misuse of the technology and promote its beneficial applications. This oversight is essential for maintaining public trust, addressing legal issues, and maximizing the positive outcomes of cloud seeding initiatives.

Counterarguments

  • While Rainmaker claims conclusive evidence of cloud seeding's effectiveness, some scientists argue that it is difficult to measure the direct impact of cloud seeding on precipitation due to the complexity of weather systems and natural variability.
  • The reported 186,000 acre-feet of water produced in Utah might not be solely attributable to cloud seeding, as it is challenging to isolate the effects of seeding from other meteorological factors.
  • The potential solutions for water scarcity and food insecurity offered by cloud seeding might be overstated, as the technology may not be scalable or reliable enough to address these issues on a global scale.
  • The cost advantage of cloud seeding over desalination might not take into account the long-term environmental costs and the potential for ecological disruption.
  • The history of military use of cloud seeding raises ethical concerns about the dual-use nature of the technology, which could be used for harm as well as for beneficial purposes.
  • The bans on cloud seeding in Tennessee and Florida might reflect valid concerns about the unintended consequences of weather modification, such as ecological impacts and changes to weather patterns in neighboring regions.
  • The idea of "cloud water rights" points to a broader issue of governance and equity in the use of atmospheric resources, which may not be adequately addressed by federal regulation alone.
  • The emphasis on careful implementation and regulation may not fully account for the challenges of enforcing regulations and monitoring the impacts of cloud seeding across different jurisdictions and international borders.

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#207 Augustus Doricko - CEO of Rainmaker: Manipulating the Weather

History and Development of Cloud Seeding Technology

Cloud seeding, a method of weather modification, has evolved significantly since its conception. It represents the pioneering work of scientists and has seen various applications, from experimental projects to military initiatives.

Cloud Seeding Invented In 1946, US Experiments Induced Precipitation

Pioneering Work of Langmuir, Vonnegut, and Schaeffer In Cloud Seeding

Cloud seeding originated as a technological innovation in 1946, invented by American scientists. The technology's first successful application was made possible by the groundbreaking work of three individuals: Irving Langmuir, Bernard Vonnegut, and Vincent Schaeffer. These scientists achieved the first intentional modification of the weather, causing snowfall over the Appalachian Mountains in Western New York through cloud seeding.

1960s Cloud Seeding: Operation Popeye's Military Use

In the 1960s, cloud seeding technology saw military application during the Vietnam War through Operation Popeye. The aim was to extend the monsoon season and increase rainfall over the Ho Chi Minh Trail with the intention of disrupting the Viet Cong's logistics. While troops and meteorologists on the ground reported some success in extending the monsoon season, the absence of satellites and radar during that period resulted in very little data to substantiate the effectiveness of Operation Popeye.

Technological Limits Hindered Accurate Measurement of Early Cloud Seeding Impacts

Operation Popeye w ...

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History and Development of Cloud Seeding Technology

Additional Materials

Counterarguments

  • The effectiveness of cloud seeding, particularly in the early years, is still debated among scientists, with some arguing that the evidence for its efficacy is not as strong as proponents suggest.
  • The ethical implications of weather modification, including cloud seeding, have been a point of contention, with critics questioning the right to alter weather patterns and the potential for unintended consequences.
  • The environmental impact of cloud seeding chemicals, particularly silver iodide, has been a concern, with some environmentalists arguing that it could have negative effects on ecosystems.
  • The use of cloud seeding for military purposes, such as in Operation Popeye, raises moral questions about the weaponization of weather and the potential for such technologies to be used in ways that could harm civilian populations or disrupt natural systems.
  • The claim that Project Storm Fury aimed to reduce hurricane intensity has been met with skepticism by some researchers who argue that the understanding of hurricane dynamics at the time was too limited to effectively manipulate such complex natura ...

Actionables

  • You can explore the history of weather modification by creating a visual timeline that includes key events like the invention of cloud seeding and Operation Popeye. Use free online tools like Canva or Tiki-Toki to design your timeline, adding images, descriptions, and links to further reading. This activity will help you better understand the progression of weather modification technology and its historical context.
  • Start a weather journal to track local weather patterns and any unusual changes. Note down conditions like rainfall, temperature, and wind speed daily. Over time, you might identify patterns or anomalies that could be a local conversation starter about the broader topic of weather modification and its potential impacts on your area.
  • Engage with community science projects that focus on weather ...

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#207 Augustus Doricko - CEO of Rainmaker: Manipulating the Weather

Current Cloud Seeding Operations and Capabilities

Cloud seeding has grown into a sophisticated practice with companies like Rainmaker leading the way in weather modification to increase water supply in various states.

Rainmaker Demonstrates Unambiguous Results From Cloud Seeding

Since 2017, it has been possible to definitively prove that cloud seeding works. NCAR demonstrated that cloud seeding could induce precipitation by flying in specific patterns and observing precipitation only along those patterns, conclusively showing for the first time that cloud seeding could measure how much water was put on the ground.

Rainmaker Uses Drones to Detect Water In Clouds and Release Silver Iodide to Induce Rain

Rainmaker Technology Corporation is operationalizing research from American and European researchers in weather modification. They mimic natural precipitation by adding materials like silver iodide with a crystal structure similar to ice to clouds. This allows water droplets to freeze and fall as precipitation. Rainmaker’s team, experienced in cloud seeding operations, now successfully induces precipitation, such as their operation in Pendleton, Oregon, where they released particles that led to increased precipitation exclusively downwind from their operation.

Augustus Doricko discusses silver iodide's effectiveness in cloud seeding due to its crystal structure being almost identical to ice. Rainmaker uses weather-resistant drones, novel radar hardware, and an air-sole dispersion system for their cloud seeding operations. The radar technology they employ can distinguish between spherical water droplets and oblong ice crystals. Once liquid water is detected, the specially designed drones release silver iodide to induce precipitation.

Rainmaker's Cloud Seeding Boosts Water Supply in Utah, Colorado, and Texas For Agriculture, Aquifers, and Hydroelectric Power

The company's operations are yielding significant benefits in terms of water supply for agriculture, replenishing aquifers, and hydroelectric power. Utah's Department of Natural Resources measured that cloud seeding produced 186,000 acre-feet of water last year, about 6% of all water consumed in the state. Additionally, Rainmaker operates in Colorado, Oregon, California, and Texas, where their techniques have been crucial for water supplies.

One of Rainmaker's significant priorities is to make more water for the Great Salt Lake in Utah to prevent it from depleting. This depletion can cause respiratory issues due to arsenic kicked up from the lakebed. They are also working on an interstate compact involving cloud seeding over thousands of square miles as rivers flow thro ...

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Current Cloud Seeding Operations and Capabilities

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Counterarguments

  • Concerns about the environmental impact of silver iodide and potential long-term ecological consequences.
  • Questions about the scalability of cloud seeding and whether it can significantly address water shortages on a larger scale.
  • Doubts about the reliability of cloud seeding in different climates and weather conditions.
  • The possibility that cloud seeding could have unintended weather consequences in other regions due to atmospheric changes.
  • Ethical considerations regarding the modification of weather patterns and potential impacts on neighboring regions that do not consent to such operations.
  • The risk of creating dependency on artificial weather modification, potentially detracting from sustainable water management practices.
  • The need for more comprehensive and long-term studies to understand the full impact of cloud seeding on local ecosystems and weather patterns.
  • Concerns ...

Actionables

  • You can support water conservation by investing in companies that specialize in weather modification technologies. By choosing stocks or funds that include businesses like Rainmaker, you're financially backing the advancement of cloud seeding and its potential benefits for water resources.
  • Start a citizen science project to track local weather patterns and precipitation levels. Use a simple rain gauge to measure rainfall in your area and contribute data to online platforms that monitor weather changes. This can help you understand the impact of weather modification efforts on your local environment.
  • Encourage local farmers and wa ...

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#207 Augustus Doricko - CEO of Rainmaker: Manipulating the Weather

Potential Benefits of Cloud Seeding

Cloud seeding, characterized as an innovative and localized weather modification technology, is positioned to provide significant benefits by addressing water scarcity, enhancing agricultural productivity, and even preventing wildfires.

Cloud Seeding Boosts Rain to Combat Water Scarcity and Food Insecurity

Augustus Doricko notes that cloud seeding could play a monumental role in generating water abundance, especially in regions experiencing scarcity. By increasing rainfall in targeted areas, cloud seeding has the potential to prevent water conflicts, such as those over the Nile or the Jordan River, by ensuring a more equitable distribution of water resources where they are needed most.

For example, Doricko refers to California's Central Valley, transformed into a highly productive agricultural area through technological advancements, drawing a parallel to how cloud seeding could address water scarcity and improve agricultural output. He envisions that cloud seeding could enable farming in previously arid areas by ensuring existing farms remain watered and then extending water resources to new communities.

Cloud Seeding Aids Wildfire Prevention By Sustaining Soil Moisture and Vegetation

A key focus in the western United States is on snowpack enhancement through cloud seeding, aiming not only to prevent the melting and collapse of glaciers but also to support wildfire prevention efforts. By making more snow, cloud seeding helps maintain soil moisture and healthy vegetation, which is especially significant in areas prone to wildfires.

Doricko argues that had cloud seeding been employed before the Los Angeles wildfires, it might have prevented the dry conditions that fueled the fires, pointing out that augmenting rain and snowfall ensures more water can seep into aquifers, maintaining storage capacity for dry periods.

Cloud Seeding's Cost Advantage Over Desalination Boosts Water Supplies

In terms of cost, cloud seeding presents a striking fin ...

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Potential Benefits of Cloud Seeding

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Cloud seeding is a weather modification technique where substances are dispersed into clouds to alter their natural processes, such as precipitation. The goal is to enhance rainfall or snowfall in specific areas, typically to address water scarcity or other environmental concerns. By stimulating cloud development, cloud seeding aims to influence the distribution and amount of precipitation in a targeted manner. This technology is used to potentially increase water resources, support agriculture, and mitigate natural disasters like wildfires.
  • Cloud seeding is a weather modification technique where substances like silver iodide or potassium iodide are dispersed into clouds to encourage precipitation. These substances act as nuclei for water droplets to form around, enhancing cloud condensation and potentially leading to increased rainfall or snowfall. The process aims to augment natural precipitation patterns by stimulating cloud development and aiding in the production of precipitation in regions that may benefit from additional water resources. Cloud seeding is typically conducted using aircraft or ground-based generators to disperse the seeding agents into clouds under specific atmospheric conditions conducive to precipitation.
  • Cloud seeding involves dispersing substances like silver iodide or potassium iodide into clouds to encourage precipitation, either by enhancing existing clouds or triggering new cloud formation. These substances act as nuclei around which water droplets can form, leading to increased rainfall or snowfall. The process aims to modify weather conditions to increase precipitation in specific areas, addressing water scarcity and other environmental concerns. Cloud seeding is a targeted approach that can potentially enhance water resources and agricultural productivity in regions facing water shortages.
  • Cloud seeding's potential environmental impacts include altering precipitation patterns, affecting ecosystems, and raising concerns about unintended consequences. It can influence local weather conditions and may lead to changes in water availability and distribution. The ecological effects of cloud seeding are still being studied to understand its full impact on the environment. Additionally, there are debates about the ethical and regulatory aspects of manipulating natural weather systems.
  • Cloud seeding is a weather modification technique that aims to enhance precipitation in specific areas by dispersing substances into clouds. By increasing rainfall, cloud seeding can potentially alleviate water scarcity in regions facing limited water resources, offering a way to address water shortages and promote sustainable water management practices. This process can help ensure a more equitable distribution of water, potentially reducing conflicts over water access and supporting agricultural activities in arid regions. Cloud seeding's ability to boost rain in targeted areas presents a promising solution to combat water scarcity and enhance water availability for various purposes.
  • Cloud seeding can enhance agricultural productivity by increasing rainfall in targeted areas, ensuring water availability for crops. This technology can transform arid regions into fertile agricultural areas by providing the necessary water resources. By extending water supplies to new communities, cloud seeding enables farming in previously water-scarce regions. The augmented rainfall from cloud seeding supports existing farms and promotes sustainable agricultural practices.
  • Cloud seeding can aid in preventing wildfires by enhancing snowpack, which helps maintain soil moisture and healthy vegetation. This is crucial in wildfire-prone areas as it reduces the dry conditions that can fuel fires. By increasing precipitation, cloud seeding supports efforts to mitigate the risk of wildfires by ensuring adequate moisture levels in the environment.
  • Cl ...

Counterarguments

  • Cloud seeding's effectiveness is highly dependent on existing atmospheric conditions, and it may not always produce the desired amount of rainfall.
  • The equitable distribution of water resources through cloud seeding could be challenged by geopolitical factors and may not be as straightforward as suggested.
  • There are environmental concerns that cloud seeding could disrupt local ecosystems, particularly if the chemicals used have unintended side effects.
  • The long-term impacts of cloud seeding on weather patterns and climate are not fully understood, raising questions about its sustainability.
  • Cloud seeding for wildfire prevention may not be reliable, as it cannot guarantee sufficient rainfall to maintain soil moisture during extended drought periods.
  • The cost-effectiveness of cloud seeding compared to desalination may not hold true in all contexts, especially where cloud seeding is less effective or where freshwater sources are not readily available for seeding.
  • The claim that cloud seeding could rival the output of desalinat ...

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#207 Augustus Doricko - CEO of Rainmaker: Manipulating the Weather

Potential Risks and Concerns Around Weather Modification

The host and guests during the podcast engage in a discussion about the concerns surrounding weather modification, including its weaponization, ethical implications, and the need for regulation.

Operation Popeye Shows Weather Modification's Weaponization Potential in Vietnam

Augustus Doricko acknowledges that weather modification can be weaponized, referencing its use in Vietnam. He discusses the strategic objective behind Operation Popeye, which aimed to flood out supply chains and prevent the Viet Cong from reaching the frontlines. Operation Popeye is associated with the influence on precipitation that could disrupt military operations or create strategic advantages, revealing the weaponization potential of weather modification.

The host touches upon the secrecy and denials from the Secretary of Defense about weather modification in Vietnam, leading to public distrust when a reporter uncovered the truth.

Regions Ban Cloud Seeding Due to Lack of Public Trust and Understanding

Tennessee banned cloud seeding a year ago, making it a class two felony in Florida. Eastern states, where water scarcity is less acute compared to the West, have passed legislation against weather modification, mainly due to mistrust of the government and a lack of understanding about cloud seeding.

Augustus Doricko addresses concerns that if cloud seeding increases rain in one location, it could reduce rain downwind, a phenomenon known as "stealing from Peter to pay Paul." He envisions potential conflicts over "cloud water rights" as operations expand, drawing a parallel to current disputes over rights to rivers like the Colorado River.

Shawn Ryan talks about the unknown implications of weather modification, and Doricko emphasizes the need for caution in practices like cloud seeding, suggesting that rapid or large-scale changes to ecosystems, as hypothetically greening the Sahara may disrupt the Amazon rainforest's precipitation.

Regulatory Challenges for Cloud Seeding due to Fears Of Disrupting Weather Patterns

Doricko foresees the need for federal regulation on distributing atmospheric water. The Chinese Meteorological Administration's efforts in weather modification are noted, suggesting that controlling water supply could exert soft influence over other countries if linked with control over shipping and energy infrastructure.

The desire for federal regulations to enforce standards across states is highlighted due to the concerns associated with manipulating weather patterns. Currently, state departments of natural resources handle permi ...

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Potential Risks and Concerns Around Weather Modification

Additional Materials

Counterarguments

  • Weather modification, while potentially weaponizable, can also be seen as a tool for humanitarian aid, such as alleviating droughts or preventing hail damage to crops.
  • The ethical implications of weather modification are complex and not solely negative; there can be positive ethical outcomes if it is used to protect or enhance ecosystems and human life.
  • The lack of public trust might not only stem from government secrecy but also from a general lack of awareness and education about the science behind weather modification.
  • The concept of "stealing rain" is still debated among scientists, and some argue that the atmosphere is a shared resource and weather patterns are not owned by any one region.
  • Concerns about disrupting ecosystems might be mitigated by thorough environmental impact assessments and smaller-scale, controlled experiments.
  • International cooperation, rather than just federal regulation, might be necessary to address the global implications of weather modification.
  • The potential for weather modification to mitigate hurricanes could be seen as a proactive approach to disaster management, rather than a risk.
  • The creation of a new regulatory agency might be r ...

Actionables

  • You can become a weather modification observer by tracking local weather patterns and cloud seeding activities. Start a journal or use a weather app to note any unusual weather changes and research if there have been any cloud seeding operations in your area. This will help you understand the local impact of weather modification and contribute to community knowledge.
  • Engage in responsible water usage by setting up a rainwater harvesting system at home. This not only conserves water but also reduces your dependency on external water sources, which could be affected by weather modification practices. By using collected rainwater for gardening or flushing toilets, you're adapting to potential shifts in water distribution due to cloud seeding.
  • Advocate for transparent ...

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