On the Shawn Ryan Show, Augustus Doricko of Rainmaker discusses cloud seeding—a weather modification technology that has evolved from its 1946 origins to modern applications. The discussion covers the technology's development, from early military use in Vietnam to its current implementation using drones and radar systems to induce precipitation in water-scarce regions.
Doricko explains how cloud seeding works, its effectiveness in addressing water scarcity, and its potential impact on agriculture and wildfire prevention. The conversation also addresses public concerns about weather modification, including questions about regulation, potential weaponization, and disputes over water rights. Notable statistics are presented, such as cloud seeding's cost advantage over desalination and its measured impact on Utah's water supply.
Sign up for Shortform to access the whole episode summary along with additional materials like counterarguments and context.
Cloud seeding began in 1946 when American scientists Irving Langmuir, Bernard Vonnegut, and Vincent Schaeffer successfully modified weather conditions, causing snowfall over the Appalachian Mountains. The technology later saw military application during the Vietnam War through Operation Popeye, which aimed to extend the monsoon season over the Ho Chi Minh Trail. Early efforts to measure cloud seeding's effectiveness were hampered by technological limitations, including the absence of satellites and radar.
Since 2017, companies like Rainmaker have demonstrated conclusive evidence of cloud seeding's effectiveness. Augustus Doricko explains that Rainmaker uses sophisticated technology, including weather-resistant drones and novel radar hardware, to detect water in clouds and release silver iodide, which induces precipitation. Their operations have shown significant results, particularly in Utah, where the Department of Natural Resources measured that cloud seeding produced 186,000 acre-feet of water in one year—about 6% of the state's water consumption. The company operates under strict regulation by state agencies to prevent risks such as flooding or avalanches.
According to Doricko, cloud seeding offers promising solutions for water scarcity and food insecurity. The technology could prevent water conflicts and improve agricultural output in areas like California's Central Valley. It also aids in wildfire prevention by maintaining soil moisture and vegetation health. Notably, cloud seeding presents a significant cost advantage over desalination, producing water at roughly one-fortieth of the cost.
The technology's history of military use, as demonstrated by Operation Popeye, has raised concerns about weaponization. Some regions, including Tennessee and Florida, have banned cloud seeding due to public mistrust and lack of understanding. Doricko addresses concerns about potential conflicts over "cloud water rights" and emphasizes the need for federal regulation. The podcast highlights the importance of careful implementation and regulation to prevent negative effects while maximizing benefits.
1-Page Summary
Cloud seeding, a method of weather modification, has evolved significantly since its conception. It represents the pioneering work of scientists and has seen various applications, from experimental projects to military initiatives.
Cloud seeding originated as a technological innovation in 1946, invented by American scientists. The technology's first successful application was made possible by the groundbreaking work of three individuals: Irving Langmuir, Bernard Vonnegut, and Vincent Schaeffer. These scientists achieved the first intentional modification of the weather, causing snowfall over the Appalachian Mountains in Western New York through cloud seeding.
In the 1960s, cloud seeding technology saw military application during the Vietnam War through Operation Popeye. The aim was to extend the monsoon season and increase rainfall over the Ho Chi Minh Trail with the intention of disrupting the Viet Cong's logistics. While troops and meteorologists on the ground reported some success in extending the monsoon season, the absence of satellites and radar during that period resulted in very little data to substantiate the effectiveness of Operation Popeye.
Operation Popeye w ...
History and Development of Cloud Seeding Technology
Cloud seeding has grown into a sophisticated practice with companies like Rainmaker leading the way in weather modification to increase water supply in various states.
Since 2017, it has been possible to definitively prove that cloud seeding works. NCAR demonstrated that cloud seeding could induce precipitation by flying in specific patterns and observing precipitation only along those patterns, conclusively showing for the first time that cloud seeding could measure how much water was put on the ground.
Rainmaker Technology Corporation is operationalizing research from American and European researchers in weather modification. They mimic natural precipitation by adding materials like silver iodide with a crystal structure similar to ice to clouds. This allows water droplets to freeze and fall as precipitation. Rainmaker’s team, experienced in cloud seeding operations, now successfully induces precipitation, such as their operation in Pendleton, Oregon, where they released particles that led to increased precipitation exclusively downwind from their operation.
Augustus Doricko discusses silver iodide's effectiveness in cloud seeding due to its crystal structure being almost identical to ice. Rainmaker uses weather-resistant drones, novel radar hardware, and an air-sole dispersion system for their cloud seeding operations. The radar technology they employ can distinguish between spherical water droplets and oblong ice crystals. Once liquid water is detected, the specially designed drones release silver iodide to induce precipitation.
The company's operations are yielding significant benefits in terms of water supply for agriculture, replenishing aquifers, and hydroelectric power. Utah's Department of Natural Resources measured that cloud seeding produced 186,000 acre-feet of water last year, about 6% of all water consumed in the state. Additionally, Rainmaker operates in Colorado, Oregon, California, and Texas, where their techniques have been crucial for water supplies.
One of Rainmaker's significant priorities is to make more water for the Great Salt Lake in Utah to prevent it from depleting. This depletion can cause respiratory issues due to arsenic kicked up from the lakebed. They are also working on an interstate compact involving cloud seeding over thousands of square miles as rivers flow thro ...
Current Cloud Seeding Operations and Capabilities
Cloud seeding, characterized as an innovative and localized weather modification technology, is positioned to provide significant benefits by addressing water scarcity, enhancing agricultural productivity, and even preventing wildfires.
Augustus Doricko notes that cloud seeding could play a monumental role in generating water abundance, especially in regions experiencing scarcity. By increasing rainfall in targeted areas, cloud seeding has the potential to prevent water conflicts, such as those over the Nile or the Jordan River, by ensuring a more equitable distribution of water resources where they are needed most.
For example, Doricko refers to California's Central Valley, transformed into a highly productive agricultural area through technological advancements, drawing a parallel to how cloud seeding could address water scarcity and improve agricultural output. He envisions that cloud seeding could enable farming in previously arid areas by ensuring existing farms remain watered and then extending water resources to new communities.
A key focus in the western United States is on snowpack enhancement through cloud seeding, aiming not only to prevent the melting and collapse of glaciers but also to support wildfire prevention efforts. By making more snow, cloud seeding helps maintain soil moisture and healthy vegetation, which is especially significant in areas prone to wildfires.
Doricko argues that had cloud seeding been employed before the Los Angeles wildfires, it might have prevented the dry conditions that fueled the fires, pointing out that augmenting rain and snowfall ensures more water can seep into aquifers, maintaining storage capacity for dry periods.
In terms of cost, cloud seeding presents a striking fin ...
Potential Benefits of Cloud Seeding
The host and guests during the podcast engage in a discussion about the concerns surrounding weather modification, including its weaponization, ethical implications, and the need for regulation.
Augustus Doricko acknowledges that weather modification can be weaponized, referencing its use in Vietnam. He discusses the strategic objective behind Operation Popeye, which aimed to flood out supply chains and prevent the Viet Cong from reaching the frontlines. Operation Popeye is associated with the influence on precipitation that could disrupt military operations or create strategic advantages, revealing the weaponization potential of weather modification.
The host touches upon the secrecy and denials from the Secretary of Defense about weather modification in Vietnam, leading to public distrust when a reporter uncovered the truth.
Tennessee banned cloud seeding a year ago, making it a class two felony in Florida. Eastern states, where water scarcity is less acute compared to the West, have passed legislation against weather modification, mainly due to mistrust of the government and a lack of understanding about cloud seeding.
Augustus Doricko addresses concerns that if cloud seeding increases rain in one location, it could reduce rain downwind, a phenomenon known as "stealing from Peter to pay Paul." He envisions potential conflicts over "cloud water rights" as operations expand, drawing a parallel to current disputes over rights to rivers like the Colorado River.
Shawn Ryan talks about the unknown implications of weather modification, and Doricko emphasizes the need for caution in practices like cloud seeding, suggesting that rapid or large-scale changes to ecosystems, as hypothetically greening the Sahara may disrupt the Amazon rainforest's precipitation.
Doricko foresees the need for federal regulation on distributing atmospheric water. The Chinese Meteorological Administration's efforts in weather modification are noted, suggesting that controlling water supply could exert soft influence over other countries if linked with control over shipping and energy infrastructure.
The desire for federal regulations to enforce standards across states is highlighted due to the concerns associated with manipulating weather patterns. Currently, state departments of natural resources handle permi ...
Potential Risks and Concerns Around Weather Modification
Download the Shortform Chrome extension for your browser