Podcasts > Shawn Ryan Show > #144 Erik Bethel - TikTok Spies, Blockchain Technology and China's #1 Goal

#144 Erik Bethel - TikTok Spies, Blockchain Technology and China's #1 Goal

By Shawn Ryan Show

In this episode of the Shawn Ryan Show, Erik Bethel shares insights from his diverse background—spanning his Cuban immigrant roots, military service, and careers in finance and international business. With his firsthand experiences in China, Bethel raises concerns about the country's growing technological prowess and allegations of unfair practices.

Bethel explores China's ambitions to surpass the US in critical fields like AI and manufacturing, underscoring the need for reshoring efforts and vigilant leadership. The episode also delves into the future of finance, examining threats posed by China's digital currency plans and the risks of unsustainable US debt levels to the dollar's status as the global reserve currency.

#144 Erik Bethel - TikTok Spies, Blockchain Technology and China's #1 Goal

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#144 Erik Bethel - TikTok Spies, Blockchain Technology and China's #1 Goal

1-Page Summary

Erik Bethel's Background and Career

Erik Bethel's life journey spanned overcoming adversity as a Cuban immigrant, military service, and a dynamic career in finance and international business.

Bethel's Cuban Roots and Early Life

Bethel grew up in Miami in a family of Cuban immigrants. His father worked as a diplomat and press attaché, while his mother later attended university and started a magazine company, according to Bethel.

Transitioning to Finance and Business

After graduating from the US Naval Academy and serving as an officer, Bethel transitioned to finance, leveraging his skills in math and Spanish fluency. He specialised in Latin American markets at Morgan Stanley, later gaining experience in Mexico and at Wharton. His career then shifted to pioneering business ventures connecting China and Latin America.

China's Global Ambitions and Concerns

Bethel's Observations While in China

Bethel raises concerns about China's intellectual property theft and unfair competition practices against US companies that he witnessed firsthand during his time there.

China's Technological Progress Outpacing the US

Bethel asserts China now surpasses the US in critical areas like AI, quantum computing and manufacturing. He believes this poses long-term risks to US interests and economic models.

Actions Needed to Confront China's Rise

Bethel advocates reshoring manufacturing, particularly in key sectors like rare earth processing, to reduce US reliance on China. He suggests robust leadership is required to monitor and respond to China's growing global ambitions.

The Future of Finance and the US Dollar

Centralized vs. Decentralized Finance Models

Bethel expresses concern over China's digital currency plans and the potential to undermine the US dollar's dominance. However, he sees promise in decentralized finance and blockchain for ensuring transparency and autonomy.

Growing US Debt Crisis Risks

Bethel warns that unsustainable deficit spending and rising debt levels could precipitate an economic crisis with consequences like dollar collapse and loss of reserve currency status, according to Bethel.

1-Page Summary

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Bethel transitioned from military service to finance, specializing in Latin American markets at Morgan Stanley before venturing into connecting China and Latin America in business. His career path involved leveraging his skills in math and Spanish fluency to navigate international finance and business opportunities.
  • Bethel's concerns about China's advancements in AI, quantum computing, and manufacturing stem from his observations of China's rapid progress in these areas, surpassing the US in some critical technologies. This poses long-term risks to US interests and economic models, as China's advancements could potentially impact global competitiveness and strategic advantages. Bethel's advocacy for reshoring manufacturing and emphasizing leadership to monitor China's global ambitions reflects his belief in the need for proactive measures to address these challenges.
  • Reshoring manufacturing is the process of bringing back production processes to the country of origin, in this case, the United States. This strategy aims to reduce reliance on foreign manufacturing, particularly in critical sectors like rare earth processing. By reshoring, the goal is to enhance domestic production capabilities, create jobs, and strengthen national security by decreasing dependence on other countries for essential goods and technologies. Reshoring can also help mitigate risks associated with supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions.
  • China's digital currency plans involve the development of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) known as the digital yuan. This digital currency is designed to be a digital version of the official currency of China, issued and regulated by the People's Bank of China. The potential impact on the US dollar arises from the competition between the digital yuan and the US dollar as global reserve currencies, potentially challenging the dollar's dominance in international trade and finance. This competition could influence the balance of power in the global financial system and impact the US dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency.
  • Unsustainable deficit spending and rising debt levels can lead to an economic crisis due to increased borrowing costs, inflation, and reduced investor confidence in a country's ability to repay its debts. This situation can potentially result in a devaluation of the country's currency, higher interest rates, and limitations on future government spending to stimulate the economy.

Counterarguments

  • While Bethel's concerns about China's intellectual property practices are valid, it's important to recognize that the Chinese government has been taking steps to improve its IP laws and enforcement in response to international pressure and as part of its own economic development goals.
  • The assertion that China has surpassed the US in AI, quantum computing, and manufacturing could be debated, as the US still leads in many aspects of these fields, including research output and the number of high-tech companies.
  • The idea of reshoring manufacturing to the US is complex and may not be feasible for all industries due to higher labor costs and the potential for increased consumer prices.
  • The effectiveness of strong leadership in responding to China's global ambitions could be questioned, as international relations often require nuanced diplomacy and cooperation with allies, rather than unilateral actions.
  • While decentralized finance and blockchain have potential benefits, they also come with risks such as regulatory challenges, security concerns, and the potential for use in illegal activities that need to be addressed.
  • The concern over China's digital currency potentially undermining the US dollar's dominance might be overstated, as the dollar's status is supported by a range of factors including the size of the US economy, its financial markets, and the rule of law.
  • The warning about the US debt crisis could be counterargued by pointing out that many economists believe that countries with their own currency, like the US, can handle higher levels of debt, especially if that debt is invested in growth-promoting areas.

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#144 Erik Bethel - TikTok Spies, Blockchain Technology and China's #1 Goal

Erik Bethel's background and career journey

Erik Bethel's life story is a testament to overcoming adversity, embracing cultural heritage, and pursuing a dynamic career that spans military service, finance, and international business.

Bethel grew up in a Cuban immigrant family in Miami, with a father who worked as a diplomat and press attache

Erik Bethel's roots are deeply embedded in the turbulent history of Cuba and the immigrant experience in Miami. His mother's escape from Cuba with little more than a Bible and a photo album during the revolution speaks volumes of the political struggles encountered by his family. His grandparents were under house arrest in Cuba, and his father played a vital role as the press attaché at the US Embassy in Havana, relaying intelligence back to Washington. Following his departure from the diplomatic service, his parents ventured into entrepreneurship, starting a business of their own.

Bethel's father insisted he speak Spanish, which resulted in him not learning English until he entered elementary school. This language barrier initially placed him in ESL classes, emphasizing the linguist challenges faced by many immigrant children.

Against the conservative backdrop of his maternal household beliefs, Bethel's mother, a stark advocate of education and autonomy, managed to attend the University of Miami. She worked at the US Embassy until the Cuban revolution's end and then sought a new beginning in Miami.

Bethel attended the US Naval Academy and served as an officer, before transitioning to a career in finance

Bethel's formative years were marked by financial hurdles after his father passed away, leaving his family to grapple with economic difficulties within Miami's Cuban diaspora. Their gradual ascent from Hialeah to the more prosperous Coral Gables mirrored the success of his mother's magazine company, which flourished to secure contracts with numerous airlines across Latin America.

From being placed in ESL classes to high school at Belen in Miami, a legacy of Cuban academic institutions, Bethel's academic journey was tumultuous, punctuated with behavioral issues and a stint in military school. He chanced upon the Naval Academy, which cultivated in him a sense of purpose and nobility. Despite an initial rejection, Bethel's perseverance saw him through the Naval Academy Prep School in Newport, Rhode Island, and onto the Naval Academy, where he excelled and served as an officer upon graduation.

Contemplating his future during the Clinton administration's post-Cold ...

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Erik Bethel's background and career journey

Additional Materials

Actionables

  • You can explore your family history to understand how past experiences have shaped your values and outlook. Start by interviewing older relatives and creating a family tree that includes significant events and challenges they faced. This can provide insight into your own resilience and adaptability, much like understanding Bethel's family history can illuminate aspects of his character and drive.
  • Consider learning a new language or improving your proficiency in one you're already familiar with to enhance your career opportunities. Use language learning apps or community classes to get started, and practice with native speakers through language exchange meetups. This mirrors how Bethel's bilingual abilities opened doors in Latin American markets.
  • Reflect on your educational and career journey to identify turni ...

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#144 Erik Bethel - TikTok Spies, Blockchain Technology and China's #1 Goal

Bethel's concerns about China's global influence and ambitions

Erik Bethel raises significant concerns about China’s ambitions and its global influence, especially as it relates to the United States.

Bethel voices his concerns about the predatory economic strategies of China, which include intellectual property theft and unfair competition practices. He mentions grave instances where Chinese nationals at high-profile US companies and research labs have stolen valuable data. This theft extends to the practice where Chinese companies often directly compete with American firms by duplicating and undercutting them.

He observes that when American companies took their manufacturing to China for cheap labor, the Chinese duplicating behavior included creating "splinter factories," stealing employees, and undercutting on prices — practices that erode American companies' market shares and revenues.

Bethel believes China poses a serious long-term threat to US interests and that more leadership is needed to confront China's ambitions

Erik Bethel underlines China’s substantial investments in critical technologies such as AI, quantum computing, and advanced manufacturing, noting that they have now surpassed the US in many areas. This strategic goal to eclipse the United States carries the risk of China pushing its economic model based on centralized control, visible in sectors like Hollywood, where financial influence has led to self-censorship.

China's investment in critical technologies like AI, quantum computing, and advanced manufacturing have surpassed US capabilities in many areas

Bethel asserts China's advancements in AI are partly due to larger data sets and fewer privacy restrictions, which when paired with its dominance in sectors like drone production and shipbuilding, pose a technological threat to the U.S. He mentions China's progress in hypersonic missiles and satellite technology as examples of China’s fast-paced growth in critical areas.

The US needs to take significant steps to rebuild its domestic manufacturing and energy production capabilities to reduce reliance on China

Bethel stresses the importance of reshoring manufacturing to the US, especially in sectors like rare earth element processing and solar panel production, to reduce reliance on China. He suggests that the U.S.'s vulnerability in the supply chain, particularly in the processing of rare earth elements, underscores the need for a complete ...

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Bethel's concerns about China's global influence and ambitions

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Counterarguments

  • Intellectual property rights are a complex issue, and while there have been instances of IP theft, it's also true that many Chinese companies invest heavily in their own R&D and have made significant legitimate advancements.
  • The narrative of unfair competition can sometimes overlook the competitive practices of American firms in global markets, which may also involve aggressive strategies to maintain market dominance.
  • The issue of Chinese nationals stealing data is a sensitive one, and it's important to recognize that the vast majority of Chinese scientists and professionals work ethically and contribute positively to global knowledge.
  • The concept of "splinter factories" could be seen as a natural outcome of globalization, where knowledge transfer and competitive practices are common in international business.
  • The assertion that China poses a serious long-term threat to US interests could be balanced with the view that cooperation between the two nations on global challenges like climate change and pandemics is also essential.
  • The claim that China has surpassed the US in critical technologies is debatable, as the US still leads in many areas of innovation and technological development.
  • The influence of Chinese investment in Hollywood and other sectors could be seen as part of the global market dynamics where various international investors have stakes in American industries.
  • The argument that the US needs to rebuild its domestic manufacturing and energy production capabilities could be complemented by the perspective that global supply chains are deeply ...

Actionables

  • You can support local businesses by purchasing products made in your country to strengthen domestic manufacturing. By doing this, you're contributing to the demand for locally produced goods, which can encourage companies to consider reshoring their manufacturing processes. For example, when shopping for electronics, look for brands that assemble their products in your country, even if it might cost a bit more.
  • Educate yourself on the origins of the products you buy to avoid inadvertently supporting unfair competition practices. Start by researching the supply chains of your favorite products and choose to buy from companies that have transparent and ethical sourcing. For instance, if you're in the market for a new smartphone, opt for one from a company that clearly outlines where and how their devices are made.
  • Advocate for data privacy ...

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#144 Erik Bethel - TikTok Spies, Blockchain Technology and China's #1 Goal

The future of finance and technology, including decentralized finance and the U.S. dollar

Bethel offers his reflections on the fiscal challenges facing the United States, the promise of decentralization, and the risks associated with central bank digital currencies like China's.

Bethel is concerned about the long-term implications of China's development of a central bank digital currency and its potential to undermine the role of the US dollar

Bethel considers China’s central bank digital currency (CBDC), exemplified by the ECNY, to be "evil and bad," linking it to the authoritarian control seen in China’s social credit system. He expresses concern that it might globally undermine the role of the U.S. dollar. However, he proposes that, if designed with care, a U.S. central bank digital currency could offer privacy and security. Bethel views decentralized finance and blockchain technology as tools to ensure transparency and protect privacy and autonomy. He suggests that public blockchain, possibly supported by institutions like the World Bank, would allow everyone to see where money goes, thus helping to prevent corruption.

Bethel believes decentralized finance and blockchain technology offer a potential path to preserving individual privacy and autonomy in the financial system

Decentralization, says Bethel, could be key in preserving agency, freedom, liberty, and individual autonomy against centralized systems' risk of corruption. After exploring Bitcoin and decentralized finance post-Trump administration, Bethel suggests that these technologies could help maintain U.S. dollar preeminence and prevent government overreach.

However, Bethel cautions that central bank digital currencies could also be used to increase government control over citizens if not designed properly

While not explicitly stating central bank digital currencies in the transcript, Bethel's concern about quantum communication technologies hints at fears regarding increased government surveillance and control, which could also apply to CBDCs.

The growing U.S. national debt and deficit spending pose serious risks to the long-term stability of the US dollar as the global reserve currency

Bethel discusses the concerning state of the U.S. national budget, highlighting a significant deficit that results in a rapidly growing debt—an unsustainable model akin to an individual living beyond their means. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion, he notes, ha ...

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The future of finance and technology, including decentralized finance and the U.S. dollar

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are digital forms of a country's official currency issued by the central bank. They differ from cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as they are centralized and regulated by the government. CBDCs can offer benefits like increased financial inclusion and efficiency but also raise concerns about privacy, surveillance, and potential impacts on traditional banking systems. Governments worldwide are exploring CBDCs as a way to modernize payment systems and potentially reshape the future of money.
  • Decentralized finance (DeFi) is a financial system that operates without traditional intermediaries like banks, using blockchain technology to create open and accessible financial services. Blockchain technology is a decentralized and secure way of recording transactions across a network of computers, ensuring transparency and immutability of data. DeFi platforms leverage blockchain to enable activities like lending, borrowing, trading, and more, often with automated processes known as smart contracts. This technology aims to provide financial services to anyone with an internet connection, promoting financial inclusion and reducing reliance on centralized institutions.
  • China's development of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) like the ECNY is seen as a potential threat to the dominance of the US dollar. The concern is that if widely adopted, China's CBDC could challenge the US dollar's status as the global reserve currency. This competition between the two currencies could impact various aspects of international finance and trade. The implications of China's CBDC on the US dollar's role in the ...

Counterarguments

  • Concerns about China's CBDC may be overblown as the US dollar's global reserve status is supported by complex factors beyond digital currency adoption, such as economic stability, military strength, and the size of the U.S. financial markets.
  • A US CBDC could still pose privacy risks despite careful design, as the potential for surveillance and data breaches remains inherent in any centralized system.
  • Decentralized finance and blockchain technology, while promoting transparency, also face issues with scalability, regulatory acceptance, and integration with existing financial systems.
  • Public blockchains, even with institutional support, may not be immune to manipulation or corruption and could introduce new complexities in tracking and enforcing anti-corruption measures.
  • Decentralization, while offering benefits for privacy and autonomy, also presents challenges in terms of regulatory oversight, which can be necessary to protect consumers and maintain financial stability.
  • The assertion that central bank digital currencies could increase government control is not universally accepted; some argue that with the right safeguards, they could enhance financial inclusion and efficiency without necessarily expanding surveillance.
  • The risks posed by the US national debt and deficit spending are subject to debate, with some economists arguing tha ...

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