#120 Annie Jacobsen - Nuclear Armageddon in 2024

Annie Jacobsen and Shawn Ryan discuss the terrifying prospects of a hypothetical nuclear war, focused on an incident involving a North Korean missile launch and its consequential devastation.

Nuclear war scenario begins with a rogue launch by North Korea

Annie Jacobsen describes a dire scenario where a nuclear war could be sparked by a rogue ICBM launch from North Korea. She elaborates on the split-second nature of warfare technology, explaining how the United States has a satellite system that can detect a North Korean launch in under one second. In the hypothesized scenario, the detection of a missile prompts urgent action to inform the U.S. President as intelligence agencies and military intelligence scramble to assess the threat.

Ballistic missile launch is detected within 150 seconds, prompting a scramble to confirm and notify the president

The ballistic missile would be detected within the first 150 seconds of launch, allowing STRATCOM or Peterson Air Force Base, alongside the Space Force and the Aerospace Data Center, to determine the missile's potential target. If a missile is headed towards the U.S. East Coast, it marks a serious departure from North Korea's usual practice of regional provocations.

Jacobsen discusses the complexity of responding to such a threat, noting how U.S. ICBMs flying over Russia to target North Korea might provoke a catastrophic response if misinterpreted by Russia. She also mentions a second scenario involving a North Korean submarine near the U.S. West Coast and a third where North Korea launches an EMP weapon disguised as a satellite.

Devastating effects of a nuclear detonation over Washington D.C.

Shawn Ryan delves into the immediate and horrific effects of a nuclear detonation, especially focusing on Washington D.C. as the potential target.

Immediate flash and fireball vaporize everything within a mile-wide radius

A one-megaton bomb over the Pentagon would create an immense ball of fire, vaporizing all cellular life within a mile-wide radius. Jacobsen illustrates the unthinkable destruction where sturdy structures crumble, and the unleashed blast wave metaphorically bulldozes everything in its path.

Blast wave and radiation poisoning kill millions within a 10-mile radius

The scenario then unfolds to recount the blast wave's impact: people within a 10-mile radius suffer asphyxiation or third-degree burns, streets become unbearably hot, and death tolls rise exponentially. Jacobsen raises concerns about the immediate multitudes of deaths from various causes ...

Annie Jacobsen and her discussion partners explore the grim aftermath of a nuclear conflict—envisioning a bleak world marked by nuclear winter, societal collapse, and a radical shift in the way humans exist on Earth.

Nuclear winter caused by soot and debris blocking sunlight

Jacobsen references a paper for Nature magazine's Nature Food section by Professor Brian Toon and a team of scientists who investigated climate modeling post-nuclear winter. She summarizes their findings, stating that fires from nuclear detonations could send approximately 330 billion pounds of soot into the atmosphere, blocking 70 percent of the sun's rays.

Dramatic temperature drop freezes agricultural regions for years

This soot and debris high in the atmosphere would cause a significant and prolonged drop in temperatures globally, particularly in mid-latitude regions. Jacobsen mentions the potential doubling of ice at the Arctic Circle and freezing of critical bodies of water.

Collapse of food supply leads to famine, disease, and mass die-off among survivors

The chilling effect of the nuclear winter would lead to frozen agricultural regions like Iowa and Ukraine, devastating global agriculture for years. This could result in the death of five billion people due to famine, disease, and additional radiation exposure. The lack of food would exacerbate the suffering of survivors, leading to further disease and conflict over scant resources.

Survivors forced to live underground due to destroyed ozone layer

Small-scale, primitive way of life replaces modern civilization

Jacobsen discusses how humanity would have to grapple with life underground as a result of the destroyed ozone layer exposing the Earth to harmful levels of solar radiation. This would necessitate a return to a more primitive lifestyle, with small-bodied animals and ...

An overview of the historical context and the evolution of nuclear arms, culminating in the current global nuclear weapons programs.

Past nuclear arms race and buildup to over 70,000 warheads globally

In the Cold War era, a dramatic arms race resulted in the production of over 70,000 nuclear warheads by 1986, with the United States producing an average of five nuclear weapons daily in the 1950s. Annie Jacobsen notes that the original plan in event of conflict with the Soviet Union was to kill 600 million people. Since those times, however, there has been a gradual reduction in global stockpiles.

Rapid production of nuclear weapons during the Cold War era

Jacobsen brings attention to the sheer scale and speed of nuclear weapons production during the height of the Cold War, and the aggressive strategies that were in place.

Gradual reduction to current stockpile of around 12,500 warheads

Despite the massive buildup, the global stockpile has been significantly reduced from its peak during the Cold War to approximately 12,500 warheads.

Current nuclear arsenals and modernization efforts

The modern nuclear landscape continues to evolve with countries maintaining, modernizing, and expanding their arsenals.

United States maintains over 1,700 warheads ready for launch

With over 1,770 deployed warheads, the United States maintains a large arsenal and is requesting $900 billion for an arsenal upgrade, acknowledging the aging nature of its ICBMs.

Other nuclear powers like China, Russia, and North Korea continue to expand capabilities

China, having increased its nuclear stockpile from 400 to 500 warheads within a year, is projected by the Defense Department to reach 1,500 nuclear warheads within the next decade. Meanwhile, Russia, which maintains a fail-deadly system called Dead Hand, has 1,670 warheads, and is alleged not to be building new weapons. North Korea has expressed intentions to disguise a nuclear warhead as a satellite, indicative of their expanding capabilities in space.

Furthermore, the transparency from India and Pakistan regarding their arsenals is limited, and both countries are believed to have approximately 165 nuclear warheads each. The United Kingdom has reduced its weapons system to only submarines, which number about 200 warheads.

Amidst this backdrop, both Chi ...

In the face of a nuclear threat, the president must act within an extraordinarily narrow window of time, with military advisors poised to offer guidance. However, there is a stark contrast between the theoretical plans for nuclear engagement and the grim reality of nuclear warfare that could result in total annihilation.

Extremely limited time frame for presidential decision>

President must decide on a launch order within minutes of missile detection

Annie Jacobsen and Shawn Ryan highlight the urgency and gravity of the president's role in the decision-making process during a nuclear threat. The president is expected to make a rapid decision regarding a potential counterattack, sometimes within a mere six-minute window following the detection of an incoming ballistic missile. The president communicates with the Strategic Command (STRATCOM) commander and consults with key officers, including a weather officer who estimates potential casualties from radioactive fallout if there is time.

Once a missile launch is detected, the American president faces the pressure of whether to order a retaliatory strike. The president, moved quickly during the crisis, is the sole authority for launching a nuclear war and does not require permission from Congress or military leaders. The launch of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) can occur within 60 seconds, while Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs) take about 14 minutes to launch after the president's order. Moreover, the United States' policy of "launch on warning" grants the president authority to launch a retaliatory strike if incoming missiles are detected.

Advisors and military leadership attempt to "jam" the president towards escalation

In the high-pressure situation of a nuclear crisis, military advisors may urge the president to respond with significant force, a process described by Jacobsen as "jamming the president." This military mindset emerges especially under the duress of an attack, influencing the president's decision to potentially launch a counterattack using 82 or more nuclear warheads.

During the decision-making process, the identity of the president is confirmed with the National Military Command Center using a card known as the "biscuit," which corresponds with information in the "football," or nuclear briefcase. This briefcase contains the Black Book that presents the president with various strategic options during the perilous six-minute timeframe following missile detection.

Disconnect between theoretical plans and reality of nuclear war outcomes

Theoretical targeting models fail to capture full human cost and societal collapse

Jacobsen sheds light on the dis ...