Podcasts > Rachel Maddow Presents: Déjà News > Live Coverage: Iowa Caucus Results

Live Coverage: Iowa Caucus Results

By Rachel Maddow

Dive into the fervor of the political season with "Rachel Maddow Presents: Déjà News," where a star-studded panel featuring Rachel Maddow, Chris Hayes, Steve Kornacki, and others dissect the momentous Iowa caucuses. In this high-stakes episode, the team unpacks Donald Trump's historic win, which has turned heads due to his remarkable 50% vote share in Iowa, despite his absence from debates. As Trump celebrates, he concurrently steels himself for a civil trial in New York – an event that carries significant ramifications, as highlighted by Joy Reid. Additionally, the episode examines the unwavering support of evangelical voters and their crucial impact on Trump's campaign.

The conversation then turns to Trump's rivals, as the likes of Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis re-evaluate their political strategies in light of Iowa's outcome. Lensing through the perspectives of experts such as Jen Psaki and David Plouffe, Nikki Haley's focused ambition on New Hampshire's primary becomes a cornerstone of discussion. Meanwhile, Ron DeSantis's second-place finish leads to speculation on his uncertain path forward. With multiple candidates bowing out and pledging allegiance to Trump, Rachel Maddow and her team debate the reshaping of the competitive landscape as the race moves towards the critical New Hampshire primaries.

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Live Coverage: Iowa Caucus Results

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Live Coverage: Iowa Caucus Results

1-Page Summary

Trump Wins Iowa

Donald Trump has won the Iowa caucuses with a substantial lead, as projected by NBC News. This victory marks a historic event as Trump's support exceeds 50% of the vote, making it a notable achievement in Iowa's Republican caucus history. His dominance is seen across all the reported counties, while commentators like Rachel Maddow and Chris Hayes acknowledge the unprecedented level of support he's garnered. Trump's victory in Iowa comes despite his absence from debates and can be attributed to his effective ground game and highly motivated base.

While celebrating this political milestone, Trump is set to attend a civil trial in New York. He faces a legal battle wherein writer E. Jean Carroll accuses him of sexual assault and defamation, with Joy Reid emphasizing the seriousness of this parallel legal situation.

Evangelical voters have played a significant role in Trump's Iowa success, making up more than half of the caucus electorate. Their overwhelming support is highlighted as a contributing factor to the Trump era's political shifts, and commentators discuss the group's loyalty despite potential conflicts with their traditional principles.

Next Steps

With the Iowa results in, the political strategies of Trump's competitors, especially Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, are under scrutiny as they attempt to reassess their campaigns.

Haley vows to continue campaigning hard in New Hampshire and beyond

Nikki Haley shifts her focus to New Hampshire and is seen within striking range of Trump due to the state's moderate and independent voters. Commentary from the likes of Jen Psaki and David Plouffe suggests that Haley's performance there is critical, with polls indicating she poses a significant challenge to Trump in the upcoming primary. Haley positions herself as an alternative to both Trump and Biden, looking to escape the "Trump-Biden nightmare" and appeal to New Hampshire's electorate who may be seeking a new direction.

However, questions are raised regarding Haley's ability to attract evangelical voters in later primary states like South Carolina, which could be vital for her campaign's continued viability.

DeSantis finishes second but has unclear path forward

Ron DeSantis places second in Iowa, facing a sense of uncertainty about his future in the race. Observers like David Plouffe question his ability to gain traction in the upcoming primaries, and there is skepticism about his support in New Hampshire and among independent voters. The blurred distinction between DeSantis and Haley for the second spot accentuates the significance of New Hampshire's results for both campaigns.

Multiple candidates have dropped out and endorsed Trump, narrowing field

The race is becoming more defined as candidates such as Vivek Ramaswamy withdraw and endorse Trump, reinforcing his position as the front-runner. This consolidation impacts the strategic thinking of the remaining candidates as they contend with a narrower field and reposition for the ensuing primaries.

1-Page Summary

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • The Iowa caucuses are the first major contest in the U.S. presidential primary season, traditionally seen as a crucial test of candidates' viability. Iowa's caucuses involve voters gathering at precincts to express their preferences, shaping the early narrative of the election cycle. Winning Iowa can provide momentum and media attention, influencing fundraising and voter perceptions nationwide. Candidates who perform well in Iowa can gain a significant advantage in subsequent primaries and caucuses.
  • Evangelical voters in U.S. politics are a significant voting bloc known for their conservative values and strong influence in Republican primaries. They prioritize issues like abortion, religious freedom, and traditional family values, often aligning with candidates who share these beliefs. Their support can sway elections, especially in states with a high concentration of evangelical voters, making them a key demographic for candidates to court. Despite occasional tensions between evangelical principles and certain candidate behaviors, their loyalty and turnout remain crucial in shaping the political landscape.
  • Nikki Haley is a former governor of South Carolina and served as the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations under the Trump administration. She is known for her conservative views and has been positioning herself as a potential alternative to both Trump and Biden in the Republican primary.

Ron DeSantis is the current governor of Florida and a former U.S. Representative. He is closely aligned with Trump and has been a vocal supporter of his policies. DeSantis has been considering a run for the presidency and is seen as a key figure in the Republican Party.

  • In the Republican primary race, candidates compete to secure their party's nomination for the presidential election. As candidates drop out, they may endorse another candidate, potentially influencing the race's outcome. This can lead to a consolidation of support behind a front-runner, affecting the strategies of remaining candidates. The dynamics of endorsements and withdrawals can significantly impact the trajectory of the primary race.

Counterarguments

  • Trump's victory in Iowa, while historic, may not necessarily predict the outcome of the national election, as Iowa's demographics are not representative of the entire country.
  • The effectiveness of Trump's ground game in Iowa could be challenged by pointing out that his national campaign strategy may need to adapt to different states with diverse electorates.
  • Trump's absence from debates might be criticized for potentially avoiding direct questioning and accountability on various issues.
  • The significance of evangelical voters in Iowa might not translate to other states with different religious demographics or where evangelical influence is less pronounced.
  • Nikki Haley's strategy to focus on New Hampshire could be criticized if it is perceived as putting too many resources into one state at the expense of building a broader national coalition.
  • Haley's ability to attract evangelical voters could be defended by arguing that her policy positions and leadership style may appeal to a wide range of Republicans, not just evangelicals.
  • Ron DeSantis' second-place finish in Iowa could be viewed as a strong starting position, with the potential to build momentum in subsequent primaries.
  • The skepticism about DeSantis' support in New Hampshire and among independent voters could be countered by highlighting his record as governor and his appeal to certain voter demographics.
  • The narrowing of the field after candidates drop out and endorse Trump could be seen as an opportunity for the remaining candidates to consolidate support from voters who are looking for alternatives to Trump.

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Live Coverage: Iowa Caucus Results

Trump Wins Iowa

The results of the Iowa caucuses are in, and NBC News has projected a significant victory for Donald Trump, capturing an overwhelming majority of the vote.

Trump projected to exceed 50% of the vote, a historic margin

According to NBC News, Donald Trump is the projected winner of the Iowa caucuses with a staggering lead. Early projections suggest that Trump will exceed 50% of the total vote—a historic margin not previously seen in a Republican caucus in Iowa. Rachel Maddow and other commentators note this unprecedented support, with Trump leading in all 98 counties for which data is available. Chris Hayes anticipates that Trump will be very excited about these results and is expected to boast about the size of his victory.

While Trump skipped every debate, his support continued to rise. His strategic decision to pour resources into a strong ground game in Iowa, combined with his unwaveringly enthusiastic base, has paid off significantly.

Simultaneously, Trump faces legal challenges outside the campaign trail. He plans to stop in New York to attend a civil trial to determine the compensation he owes to writer E. Jean Carroll, who accused him of sexual assault and defamation. Joy Reid highlights the gravity of the situation, explaining that not only is the sexual abuse allegation on the table, but also the implications of Trump allegedly lying about that incident.

Evangelical voters make up over 50% of Iowa caucus electorate and overwhelmingly back Trump

A crucial factor in Trump's overwhelming support came from evangelical voters in Iowa, who play a significant role in the state's political landscape. Stephanie Ruhle points out that Trump's backing from this demographic was instrumental in political outcomes like the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade.

Reid reinforces the substantial influence of evangelical voters nationwide, mentioning that they predominantly vote Republican and have shown staunch support for T ...

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Trump Wins Iowa

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • The Iowa caucuses are the first major contest in the U.S. presidential primary season, where voters gather in local meetings to select their preferred candidates. Iowa's caucuses hold significant importance as they can set the tone for the rest of the primary season, influencing momentum and fundraising for candidates. The caucuses involve a more interactive and communal voting process compared to traditional primaries, with attendees openly showing support for their chosen candidate. Candidates who perform well in Iowa can gain crucial media attention and credibility, potentially propelling them forward in the race.
  • A ground game strategy in political campaigns involves organizing and mobilizing supporters at the local level to engage with voters directly. This includes activities like door-to-door canvassing, phone banking, and hosting events to build relationships and encourage voter turnout. A strong ground game is crucial for reaching voters personally and building grassroots support for a candidate. It complements other campaign efforts like advertising and media outreach to create a comprehensive approach to winning elections.
  • Evangelical voters in the United States are known for their strong conservative beliefs, particularly on social issues like abortion. Their significant support for political candidates, such as Donald Trump, who align with their views, can influence policy decisions, including judicial appointments. This support has been crucial in shaping the composition of the Supreme Court, which has the power to revisit and potentially overturn previous rulings like Roe v. Wade, a landmark case on abortion rights. The influence of evangelical voters on political outcomes like Roe v. Wade underscores the impact of their vo ...

Counterarguments

  • While Trump's victory in Iowa is significant, it is only the first of many contests, and outcomes in other states may differ.
  • Skipping debates might have worked in Iowa, but it could be seen as a lack of transparency or unwillingness to engage with opponents and voters in other contexts.
  • Trump's lead in all 98 counties in Iowa does not necessarily predict national support or success in the general election.
  • Boasting about a victory could be perceived as unprofessional or unpresidential by some voters.
  • The ongoing civil trial may affect public perception of Trump's character and could influence voter decisions in future primaries or the general election.
  • Evangelical support in Iowa might not reflect the broader Republican electorate, especially in more diverse or urban states.
  • Evangelical voters' overwhelming support for Trump does not account for the diversity of political opinions within religious communities.
  • The assertion that evangelicals are an anti-democratic faction loyal to Trump could be challenged by highlighting evangelicals who prioritize democratic principles and have diverse political affiliations.
  • The connection between evangelical support and political ...

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Live Coverage: Iowa Caucus Results

Next Steps

The political landscape shows signs of shifting as Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis analyze their positions post-Iowa, and candidates realign with endorsements.

Haley vows to continue campaigning hard in New Hampshire and beyond

Nikki Haley's campaign moves its focus to New Hampshire, where her attributes align more closely with the moderate and independent electorate, potentially providing a more favorable battleground compared to Ron DeSantis.

Polls show Haley polling much closer to Trump in NH due to more moderate, independent electorate

Polls suggest Haley is within striking distance of Donald Trump in New Hampshire, indicating a potential opportunity due to her appeal to a more moderate and independent voting base. Experts like Jen Psaki, and David Plouffe suggest she should swiftly capitalize on any positive Iowa outcomes to build momentum in New Hampshire, a state crucial for keeping her campaign viable. Both Psaki and Rachel Maddow stress the importance of Haley’s performance in New Hampshire, given her closer polling to Trump and the state's more independent-minded electorate.

Haley attempts to position herself as a new direction and escape "Trump-Biden nightmare"

In a bid to distance herself from the current political duel, Haley is seen by some as a potential alternative to both Trump and Biden, a new direction that might resonate in upcoming primaries.

Questions remain if Haley can win evangelical voters in later primary states

While Haley aims for success in New Hampshire, concerns loom about her ability to attract evangelical voters in later states like South Carolina, which could be crucial for maintaining campaign momentum.

DeSantis finishes second but has unclear path forward

Ron DeSantis's campaign is at a crossroads after an expected second-place finish in Iowa. Experts, such as Plouffe, cast doubt on his potential to secure a significant place in the upcoming primaries, comparing ...

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Next Steps

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis are potential Republican candidates in the 2024 presidential race. Haley is focusing on New Hampshire due to its moderate electorate, while DeSantis faces uncertainty after finishing second in Iowa. Both candidates are navigating their campaign strategies amidst shifting political dynamics and endorsements within the Republican field.
  • Iowa and New Hampshire play crucial roles in the U.S. presidential primary process as they are the first states to hold caucuses and primaries, respectively. Candidates often use these early contests to build momentum and demonstrate their viability as potential nominees. The outcomes in Iowa and New Hampshire can significantly impact fundraising, media coverage, and voter perceptions, influencing the trajectory of a candidate's campaign. Winning or performing well in these states can provide a candidate with a strong start and shape the narrative of the primary race.
  • In New Hampshire, the electorate is known for its independence and willingness to support candidates from both major parties. Polls in the state are crucial indicators of candidate viability due to its early primary status. Candidates who appeal to moderate and independent voters have historically performed well in New Hampshire's primary elections. The state's primary is considered a significant early test for presidential hopefuls due to its influence on shaping the narrative of the race.
  • Endorsements in political campaigns can influence voters by signaling support from respected figures. They can boost a candidate's credibility, attract undecided voters, and consolidate support within a party. Endorsements from influential individuals or groups can provide a significant advantage by expanding a candidate's reach and enhancing their perceived viability. Conversely, a lack of endorsements ...

Counterarguments

  • While Haley is targeting moderate and independent voters, it's possible that her strategy might alienate the conservative base, which is also crucial for winning the Republican nomination.
  • Polls can be volatile and may not accurately reflect the electorate's final decision on the day of the primary.
  • Positioning as an alternative to Trump and Biden could be challenging if voters are looking for more than just a new face and are focused on specific policies or experience.
  • Haley's ability to win evangelical voters in later states could improve if she effectively communicates her policies and values that align with their interests.
  • DeSantis's second-place finish in Iowa doesn't necessarily predict his overall performance in the primary race, as candidates have historically recovered from simila ...

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