“History Comes In Patterns” Neil Howe: Civil War, Market Crashes, and The Fourth Turning | PBD #441

Neil Howe introduces the theory of the four turnings—a cycle in American history that includes periods of prosperity, rebellion, decay, and crisis, influenced by the evolution of generational values.

America's history follows a generational cycle of four recurring eras or "turnings" - the High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis.

According to Howe, roughly every long human lifetime, significant changes reshape politics and infrastructure. This cycle is structured by the coming-of-age of a new generation with distinct perspectives and values, with each era shaped by their ascendancy.

Each turning is shaped by the coming-of-age of a new generation with distinct values and perspectives.

Generational differences in America are not random but follow a pattern, with each type of generation succeeding the other in a predictable way. This pattern suggests that historical events shaping these generations also come in cycles.

The High is a period of community, conformity, and strong institutions, followed by the Awakening's rebellion against the status quo.

The "High," akin to spring, is a period of strong community and consensus which erupted after World War II, continuing into the mid-1960s with the birth of the baby boomers. It’s a time when Americans fulfill societal roles and focus on building strong institutions, characterized by diminished individualism.

Following the high, the "Awakening"—compared to summer—emerges, lasting usually from the mid-1960s to 1984. It's a time of spiritual renewal and rebellion against the established order, encapsulated by the free speech movement and the urge to break free from conformity.

The Unraveling then brings maximum individualism and a weakening of civic bonds, setting the stage for the Crisis turning.

The "Unraveling," paralleled with fall, dates from 1984 to around 2008 and is defined by an increase in individualism and weak civic instincts, similar to other historical unravelings like the 1920s. Historical figures such as the cavaliers represent this turning, who, unlike their Puritan progenitors, sought wealth and indulgence over austerity.

Historically, great awakenings occur roughly halfway between outer world upheavals, when society refocuses on the inner world of religion, values, and culture, such as the resurgence of evangelicalism. The last awakening, according to Howe, was the boomer awakening characterized by counterculture movements.

As the "Unraveling" ascends, society reaches a point where individual interests overpower collective ones leading to the weakening of institutions and the escalation of cynicism.

The current "Crisis," or fourth turning, likened to winter, started around 2008 and is projected to last until the early 2030s. It's a time of significant change, where society is expected to reformulate and establish new foundations and civic institutions resulting from impending conflicts.

Howe underscores the yin and yang rhythm in American history and the importance of understanding each "turning" to comprehend the broader historical context. He mentions that during times of crisis, society polarizes, and tribe-like divisions emerge, but at the end of such periods, norms become conventional once again—a cycle that begins with robust community and conformity and culminates in a crisis that reestablishes those norms.

Reflecting on past periods, Howe notes that there was a general agreement on major political issues, even among ideological differences, a stark contrast to the deeply ...

Generations develop their distinctive character and values from the social and historical context of their formative years. This concept is exemplified throughout American history with each generation being molded differently due to their unique position in the historical timeline.

Generations are molded by the social and historical context of the turning they come of age in.

The Silent Generation, which grew up during the "American high," is seen as conformist, having been shaped by the experiences of World War II and the Great Depression. They exemplify how significant socio-historical events define generational traits.

The "prophet" generations (e.g. Boomers) rebel against the institutions built by their parents and seek inner spiritual fulfillment.

Howe presents the generational archetype known as the "prophet" generations, such as the Boomers, who typically come of age during periods of "Awakening." These generations are noted for their rebellious nature against the robust institutions established by their predecessors. For instance, during an Awakening period, there's often a shift from salvation by works to salvation by faith, emphasizing inner spiritual fulfillment over visible actions, reflecting the 'prophet' generation's focus on personal authenticity. Additionally, figures like Steve Jobs and Bill Gates, Boomers themselves, reimagined technology to serve individual empowerment, showcasing the generational impact on technological development.

The "nomad" generations (e.g. Gen X) become the pragmatic, disillusioned midlife leaders during Crises.

The "nomad" archetype is often considered the "throwaway" generation, born during an Awakening but becoming the pragmatic and realist leaders in their midlife during a Crisis, like the 'Lost Generation' did in World War ...

Neil Howe and Patrick Bet-David discuss the increasing risk of conflict, both civil and global, that historical patterns suggest could arise from America's deepening divides.

America's deep partisan and geographic divides have raised the risk of a new civil conflict, with states potentially seeking to nullify federal laws or even secede.

Neil Howe notes that the United States is deeply divided, with the potential risk of civil conflict due to partisan and geographic rifts. He presents two potential outcomes: either one side dominates, or both sides confront a mutual external threat that forces them to unite. Howe warns that the level of polarization is so severe that people increasingly prefer not to live near those with opposing political beliefs.

A civil war could be sparked by disputes over control of federal assets and institutions in seceding states.

Howe explains that disputes over federal assets in territories that might seek to secede could trigger a civil war, much like how Fort Sumter ignited the American Civil War. He questions what could happen with federal military bases, like the Coronado Naval Base in a hypothetically seceding California, and how conflicts might arise with inhabitants who have opposite political affiliations, like Austin in a potentially seceding Texas.

Alternatively, external conflicts and alliances could escalate into a world war, as has often happened in previous fourth turnings.

Discussing the likelihood of an external conflict, Howe explains how alliances and treaties, such as the U.S. treaty with the Philippines, could draw the country into broader conflicts with significant global implications, potentially involving other nations in the region.

The level of fear, urgency, and commun ...

The "American high," described as a period valuing the collective perspective over individual talents or rights, has given way to an era of hyper-individualism, leading to a significant unraveling of traditional values and institutions.

The modern era has seen a steady progression from communal cohesion to hyper-individualism, as each generation rebels against the previous one's institutions and social norms.

The rise of individualism began during what is referred to as the "Awakening," as the new generation began to question and rebel against the status quo established during the "High." Howe notes a weakening of institutions happened during the unraveling phase, lasting from approximately 1984 to 2008, accompanied by the rise of individualism.

Neil Howe discusses how the personal computer, introduced with the idea of individual liberation, and a famous commercial symbolized the move away from collective towards personal, individual-focused technology, encapsulating the shift from the "Brezhnev world" of large institutions to more personalized, individual empowerment.

This breakdown of shared purpose and moral consensus has led to growing tribalism, distrust, and the seeming intractability of America's political divisions.

Howe reflects on the political polarization in the US, discussing "blue zone" and "red zone" tribalism and suggests a decline in the ability of the nation to act unitedly. He compares the life in the wealthy suburbs of Washington, D.C., where everyone is monetarily rich but lacks a sense of community, with life in West Virginia's hills, where despite lower wealth, there is a stronger sense of community and generosity.

There is discussion of dissimilar state policies indicative of the decline in a cohesive, national approach to issues, and Patrick Bet-David highlights the challenge of finding common values and principles. Bet-David shares an anecdote about his parents leaving Iran, drawing parallels with the current division in America and the decline in shared values that once unified communities.

Regarding cultural awareness, Neil Howe contrasts past innocence about issues like gender and sexuality with the current intense focus and hyper-sexualization. This shift has led to more restricted lifestyles for young people, replacing an uninhibited freedom with increased limitations based on individual characteristics.

The Boomer generation is characterized as having prioritized individual freedom over traditional family structures and collective responsibilities, contribut ...

Neil Howe examines the historical flux of religion and faith in America, focusing on the recurring patterns of awakening and crisis turnings that reshape American social values and community norms.

Religion in America has also cycled between periods focused on inner spirituality versus outward works and community-building.

The great awakenings of American history are highlighted as periods emphasizing inner spirituality rather than the outward social world. These are times labeled as "awakenings," where there is a heightened focus on individualistic, inner spirituality. Howe explains that these periods, typified by looking inward for validation, contrast with those when faith is reflected in collective action and the construction of communal institutions.

The "awakening" turnings have emphasized individualistic, interior-focused forms of faith.

Howe discusses how awakening periods push religions toward more personal, introspective forms of faith. This shift becomes evident when religions, which often act as mirrors of communal values, splinter along social and regional divides, exemplified by instances when American denominations split along North and South lines.

The coming crisis turning is likely to see a renewed emphasis on religion's role in shoring up shared moral norms and communal institutions.

Discussing the concept of turnings, Howe suggests that in a fourth turning—a crisis era—the emphasis might return to a faith that is outward-oriented, expressing itself through works and the building of institutions that embody communal values. “What happens in the fourth turning? That's when we begin to say that, well, faith to actually do anything, it's got to have works. It's got to build something. Something needs to win,” he voices, indicating a shift back towards collective expressions of faith.

Younger Americans' appar ...