Podcasts > PBD Podcast > Donald Trump Found GUILTY in Hush Money Trial | EMERGENCY PODCAST | PBD Podcast | Ep. 417

Donald Trump Found GUILTY in Hush Money Trial | EMERGENCY PODCAST | PBD Podcast | Ep. 417

By Patrick Bet-David

The PBD Podcast unpacks the conviction of Donald Trump on 34 counts of falsifying business records tied to a $130,000 hush money payment made before the 2016 election. While the left celebrates the "convicted felon" label, the right dismisses the charges as inflated misdemeanors.

The hosts explore how the verdict could impact Trump's 2024 presidential campaign, speculating whether it will sway undecided voters or energize his base. The episode also examines concerns over alleged judicial bias, prosecutors acting as "political tools," and setting precedents for weaponizing the justice system against political opponents.

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Donald Trump Found GUILTY in Hush Money Trial | EMERGENCY PODCAST | PBD Podcast | Ep. 417

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Donald Trump Found GUILTY in Hush Money Trial | EMERGENCY PODCAST | PBD Podcast | Ep. 417

1-Page Summary

Trump's Conviction on Falsifying Business Records

Former President Donald Trump was found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records related to a $130,000 hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election, arranged by his former lawyer Michael Cohen. While Trump faces a potential maximum sentence of 136 years, he may serve the sentences concurrently for around four years. Judge Merchant denied Trump's request for acquittal and set a sentencing hearing for July 11th, just before the Republican National Convention.

Polarized Reactions From Both Sides

The left has widely celebrated the verdict, with figures like Keith Olbermann and Don Lemon labeling Trump a "convicted felon," rhetoric which Adam Sosnick anticipates will be used heavily by Democrats in future elections. On the right, Trump condemned the "rigged trial," while Patrick Bet-David and Tom Ellsworth critiqued the charges as inflated misdemeanors and Prosecutor Alvin Bragg as a "political tool."

Impact on the 2024 Presidential Election

Sosnick suggests the verdict could sway up to 3.2 million undecided or moderate voters away from Trump in 2024 based on polling data. However, it may also energize Trump's core base. The Democrats may use the "convicted felon" label and rhetoric to derail Trump's campaign, while the timing of the July 11th sentencing aims to disrupt his convention.

Concerns Over Judicial Integrity and Abuse of Power

Trump, Ron DeSantis, and others voice concerns that the trial was politically motivated, alleging bias from the judge and prosecutors. They fear this conviction sets a precedent for abusing the justice system against political opponents, comparing it to a "kangaroo court" with doubts over jury instructions and evidence.

1-Page Summary

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • The $130,000 hush money payment to Stormy Daniels was made by Donald Trump's former lawyer, Michael Cohen, just before the 2016 election. This payment was intended to keep Stormy Daniels from publicly discussing her alleged affair with Trump. The payment was considered controversial as it raised questions about potential campaign finance violations and attempts to conceal damaging information during the election. The payment and its handling became a focal point of legal scrutiny and investigations involving Trump and his associates.
  • The verdict against Trump could influence undecided or moderate voters, potentially swaying them away from supporting him in the 2024 election. The Democrats may use Trump's conviction to undermine his campaign, while his core supporters could be energized by rallying around him. The timing of the sentencing, just before the Republican National Convention, aims to disrupt Trump's political momentum. There are concerns about the fairness of the trial and worries about the potential abuse of power in using the justice system against political opponents.
  • In legal proceedings, jury instructions are guidelines given by the judge to the jury about the laws applicable to the case and how they should analyze the evidence presented. Concerns over jury instructions in a trial may arise if there are disputes about the accuracy or fairness of the instructions provided to the jury. Additionally, doubts over evidence can involve questions about the admissibility, relevance, or authenticity of the evidence presented during the trial, which could impact the jury's decision-making process. These concerns can be significant as they relate to the fundamental fairness and integrity of the trial process.

Counterarguments

  • The severity of the sentence for falsifying business records could be seen as disproportionate compared to other similar cases, suggesting a potential bias due to Trump's political status.
  • The celebration of the verdict by some on the left could be criticized as premature or as reveling in someone's downfall, which may not be a constructive approach to justice.
  • Labeling Trump a "convicted felon" could be seen as an oversimplification of the legal process and potentially prejudicial in the context of an upcoming election.
  • The claim that the trial was "rigged" may overlook the due process of law and the evidence presented in court, which led to the conviction by a jury.
  • The suggestion that the verdict could sway undecided or moderate voters does not account for the complexity of voter decision-making and the possibility that some voters may see the conviction as politically motivated rather than a reflection of Trump's character or capabilities as a leader.
  • Using the conviction as a political tool in the election could be criticized for focusing on character assassination rather than substantive policy debates.
  • Concerns over judicial integrity and abuse of power need to be balanced with respect for the legal process and the independence of the judiciary, which is a cornerstone of the rule of law.
  • Comparing the legal process to a "kangaroo court" may be seen as undermining public trust in the judicial system without substantial evidence of misconduct.
  • The idea that the conviction sets a precedent for abusing the justice system against political opponents could be challenged by arguing that holding public figures accountable is not an abuse of power but rather a function of a healthy democracy.

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Donald Trump Found GUILTY in Hush Money Trial | EMERGENCY PODCAST | PBD Podcast | Ep. 417

The details of the Trump verdict and potential legal consequences

Former President Trump faces significant legal challenges following a recent verdict.

Trump was found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records

Trump has been found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree, charges that are related to a $130,000 hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election. His former personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, testified that Trump directed the payment to Daniels in 2016.

The conviction specifically revolves around the hush money paid to Daniels, which was arranged by Michael Cohen as an effort to prevent any negative impact on Trump's campaign.

Trump could face up to 136 years in prison, though he may serve the sentences concurrently

The potential legal consequences are severe; Trump could face up to four years in prison for each count. While it’s possible for the sentences to run consecutively, potentially leading to 136 years, he may also serve them concurrently, which would substantially reduce the time spent in prison to four ...

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The details of the Trump verdict and potential legal consequences

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Trump was found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records related to a $130,000 hush money payment to Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election. The charges stem from his involvement in directing the payment through his former personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, to prevent negative impacts on his campaign. The potential consequences include a maximum of four years in prison for each count, with the possibility of serving the sentences concurrently. The judge denied Trump's request for acquittal and scheduled a sentencing hearing just before the Republican National Convention, which could impact Trump's political future and the Republican Party.
  • The $130,000 hush money payment to Stormy Daniels was a payment made to the adult film actress to keep her from publicly discussing an alleged affair with Donald Trump before the 2016 presidential election. This payment was arranged by Trump's former personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, as an attempt to prevent any negative impact on Trump's campaign. The payment and the subsequent legal issues surrounding it have been a focal point in investigations into potential campaign finance violations and Trump's conduct.
  • Serving sentences concurrently means they are served at the same time, reducing the overall time in prison. Serving sentences consecutively means one after the other, potentially leading to a longer total time in prison. The decision on concurrent or consecutive sentencing is typically made by the judge based on the s ...

Counterarguments

...

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Donald Trump Found GUILTY in Hush Money Trial | EMERGENCY PODCAST | PBD Podcast | Ep. 417

Reactions and rhetoric from both political sides

The political landscape is sharply divided after a pivotal verdict, with commentators and the public from both sides of the political spectrum reacting strongly.

Figures on the political left have widely celebrated the verdict, labeling Trump a "convicted felon"

The left's reaction to the verdict has been predominantly celebratory. Prominent Democrats and left-leaning commentators have not held back in emphasizing the guilty verdict and Trump’s new status as a convicted criminal. Sosnick notes that the events will bring a surge of energy to Democrats who have been lacking exciting rallying points, and this verdict against Trump provides one.

Adam Sosnick expresses concern over the division this verdict has deepened, noting the intense conflict it has stirred among Americans. The hosts discuss the notion that Democrats are poised to employ the "convicted felon" label in their political rhetoric against Trump and his supporters, anticipating that the label will feature prominently in future elections and public discourse.

There are concerns that Democrats will relentlessly use this verdict in their strategies, with Keith Olbermann, Jeff Tiedrich, Brian Krasnostein, Brian Tyler Cohen, Don Lemon, and The Lincoln Project all publicly responding to the verdict. There's even speculation about how frequently the term "convicted felon" will be used by Biden and others during debates and in campaign materials, highlighting its potential as a rhetorical weapon.

Figures on the political right have strongly condemned the verdict as a miscarriage of justice

On the other side, figures on the political right have strongly condemned the verdict as unjust. Many conservatives view the trial and verdict as a politically-motivated attack meant to discredit Trump and as a threat to the rule of law. Patrick Bet-David reads tweets from figures on the right reflecting this sentiment. Donald Trump himself has called the trial a "disgrace" and a "rigged trial by a conflicted judge," vociferously proclai ...

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Reactions and rhetoric from both political sides

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Alvin Bragg is the New York County District Attorney, the first African American elected to this position. He previously served as Chief Deputy Attorney General of New York and as an Assistant United States Attorney in the Southern District of New York. In 2024, he made history by securing a conviction of a former United States president.
  • Patrick Bet-David is an Iranian-American political commentator, entrepreneur, author, and YouTuber known for founding PHP Agency, a financial services company, and hosting popular YouTube channels like Valuetainment and PBD Podcast. He has a diverse background, including serving in the U.S. Army and working in the financial industry before transitioning to his current roles in media and business. Bet-David's commentary often focuses on political and business topics, offering his perspectives to a wide audience through his online platforms.
  • Vincent Oshana is an Assyrian-American actor and comedian known for his work on television shows like The Underground and his stand-up comedy performances. He has appeared on platforms like HBO's Def Comedy Jam ...

Counterarguments

  • While the left may see the verdict as a rallying point, it could also be argued that focusing too heavily on Trump might distract from substantive policy discussions and other issues that are important to voters.
  • Celebrating a criminal conviction, regardless of the individual, could be seen as undermining the principle that legal proceedings should be sober and non-partisan matters of justice rather than occasions for political celebration.
  • The use of the "convicted felon" label in political rhetoric could be criticized as an ad hominem attack that detracts from civil political discourse and focuses on personal destruction rather than policy debate.
  • There is a possibility that the intense focus on Trump's conviction by Democrats could backfire by galvanizing his supporters and increasing their turnout at the polls.
  • The right's condemnation of the verdict as a miscarriage of justice could be challenged by pointing out that the legal process involves checks and balances designed to prevent such miscarriages, and that the verdict should be respected unless it is overturned by a higher court.
  • The characterization of the trial as a "rigged trial" by Trump and his supporters could be countered by emphasizing the importance of respecting the rule of law and the outcomes of judicial processes, even when the results are unfavorable.
  • The suggestion that the v ...

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Donald Trump Found GUILTY in Hush Money Trial | EMERGENCY PODCAST | PBD Podcast | Ep. 417

Potential impact on the 2024 presidential election

Adam Sosnick discusses how the events surrounding a hypothetical conviction of Donald Trump could have a palpable impact on the 2024 presidential election, affecting voter opinions and campaign strategies.

The verdict could sway a portion of undecided or moderate voters against supporting Trump in 2024

Sosnick translates polling data into a potential shift of 3.2 million voters away from Trump, considering that 75 million people voted for him in the previous election. Four percent of Trump voters have indicated they would not vote for him again, while 16 percent stated they would reconsider their support if Trump was convicted. A shift of even a small portion of these voters could be critical to Trump's lead in national and swing state polls, particularly among undecided or moderate voters.

Up to 3 million Trump voters could potentially be dissuaded from supporting him due to the conviction

The potential movement of around 3 million Trump supporters away from Trump highlights how a conviction could sway the election.

However, the verdict may also energize and mobilize Trump's core base of supporters

On the other hand, the verdict may galvanize Trump's core base, leading to increased mobilization among his most ardent followers.

The timing of the sentencing hearing and its proximity to the 2024 Republican National Convention is seen as a strategic attempt to disrupt Trump's campaign

The sentencing hearing is scheduled for July 11th at 10 a.m., just four days before the RNC in Milwaukee, which r ...

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Potential impact on the 2024 presidential election

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • The sentencing hearing mentioned in the text is a legal proceeding where a judge determines the punishment for a convicted individual. In this case, the timing of the sentencing hearing, just before the Republican National Convention, suggests a strategic move that could impact the 2024 presidential election. It implies that the outcome of the hearing, whether a guilty verdict or otherwise, could have significant political ramifications for Donald Trump and his campaign. The proximity of the sentencing hearing to the convention raises questions about potential disruptions and the narrative that may unfold around Trump's legal troubles.
  • The polling data is being used to estimate potential voter shifts by analyzing the percentage of Trump voters who may change their support based on a hypothetical conviction. This analysis suggests that a portion of undecided or moderate voters could be swayed away from supporting Trump in the 2024 election. By quantifying the potential impact on Trump's voter base, the interpretation of the polling data provides insights into how a conviction could influence the election dynamics.
  • The timing of the sentencing hearing just before the Republican National Convention could disrupt Trump's campaign by potentially overshadowing the event and shifting the focus to his legal troubles. It may create a strategic challenge for Trump's team to manage the fallout and maintain a positive campaign narrative amidst negative publicity. Additionally, the proximity of the sentencing hearing to the convention could impact the messaging and tone of the event, influencing how Trump's candidacy is perceived by the public and the media. This timing could also provide an opportunity for Democrats t ...

Counterarguments

  • The conviction might not sway undecided or moderate voters if they prioritize policy over character or if they believe the conviction is politically motivated.
  • Voter behavior is complex, and a conviction does not automatically translate to a loss of 3.2 million votes; some voters may remain loyal despite a conviction.
  • The idea that up to 3 million Trump supporters could be dissuaded assumes that all voters react uniformly to legal outcomes, which is not always the case.
  • Trump's core base may not only be energized by a conviction; some supporters could feel disillusioned by the legal system and disengage from the political process.
  • The timing of the se ...

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Donald Trump Found GUILTY in Hush Money Trial | EMERGENCY PODCAST | PBD Podcast | Ep. 417

Concerns about the integrity of the justice system and potential abuse of power

Tom Ellsworth, Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and Oshana voice strong concerns over the integrity of the justice system and the potential for its abuse of power, especially in light of recent events surrounding Trump's legal challenges.

Many conservatives believe the trial was politically motivated and that the justice system has been weaponized against Trump

Trump and his allies have asserted that the trial was politically motivated, voicing allegations of bias and suggesting that the justice system has been inappropriately used against him.

Ellsworth maintains faith in the American system, including the Supreme Court, but indicates concern over the manipulation of the system for political ends. Donald Trump has argued that his trial was rigged by the Biden administration to harm a political opponent, while Ron DeSantis believes the legal process in places like New York City has bent to political will. Oshana views the verdict as evidence of a "deep state" and criticizes the lack of legal action against figures such as the Clintons and the Bidens compared to the charges brought against Trump, inferring bias and a double standard in the justice system.

The precedent set ...

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Concerns about the integrity of the justice system and potential abuse of power

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Allegations of bias and "rigging" from the judge, prosecutors, and jury selection process suggest claims that these individuals or processes were unfairly influenced or manipulated to disadvantage a particular party, in this case, Donald Trump. Accusations of bias could imply that these key players in the legal system were not impartial or fair in their handling of the case. The term "rigging" implies that the process was deliberately manipulated or fixed to produce a specific outcome, potentially undermining the fairness and integrity of the legal proceedings. These allegations raise concerns about the perceived fairness and neutrality of the justice system in handling high-profile cases.
  • Concern over the manipulation of the justice system for political ends arises when individuals believe that legal processes and decisions are influenced by political motives rather than impartial justice. This manipulation can involve bias in the selection of judges, prosecutors, or juries, leading to doubts about the fairness and integrity of legal proceedings. When the justice system is perceived as being used to target political opponents or advance specific agendas, it raises concerns about the system's independence and its susceptibility to abuse for partisan gain. Such concerns can erode trust in the legal system and undermine the principles of justice and equality before the law.
  • Claims of a compromised legal process suggest that there are concerns about the fairness and impartiality of the legal proceedings. This can include allegations of bias, manipulation, or improper influence on the part of those involved in the legal system, such as judges, prosecutors, or the jury selection process. Such claims can undermine trust in the justice system and raise questions about whether the legal process is being used fairly and justly. The perception of a compromised legal process can lead to doubts about the integrity of the outcomes of legal cases and may fuel suspicions of political motivations behind legal actions.
  • The characterization of the verdict against Trump as a threat to law-abiding citizens and political neutrality suggests that some individuals believe the legal process was unfairly influenced by political motives, potentially setting a dangerous precedent for how justice is administered. This viewpoint implies that the outcome of Trump's trial could be seen as a misuse of legal mechanisms to target political opponents, raising concerns about the impartiality and integrity of the justice system in handling such cases.
  • Jury instructio ...

Counterarguments

  • The integrity of the justice system is upheld by checks and balances, including appeals processes and judicial review, which aim to prevent abuses of power.
  • Political motivation in trials is difficult to prove, and the legal system operates on evidence and law, not political affiliation.
  • Accusations of bias must be substantiated with clear evidence, and the legal system has mechanisms to address potential biases, such as the ability to challenge jurors or appeal judicial decisions.
  • The legal system has historically prosecuted individuals from various political backgrounds, suggesting that it does not exclusively target one political group.
  • Precedents in legal cases are based on legal principles and facts, and each case is decided on its own merits, which limits the potential for systemic abuse for political purposes.
  • The concept of a "deep state" is often used as a rhetorical device without concrete evidence, and the term itself is not recognized in legal or political analys ...

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