The PBD Podcast unpacks the conviction of Donald Trump on 34 counts of falsifying business records tied to a $130,000 hush money payment made before the 2016 election. While the left celebrates the "convicted felon" label, the right dismisses the charges as inflated misdemeanors.
The hosts explore how the verdict could impact Trump's 2024 presidential campaign, speculating whether it will sway undecided voters or energize his base. The episode also examines concerns over alleged judicial bias, prosecutors acting as "political tools," and setting precedents for weaponizing the justice system against political opponents.
Sign up for Shortform to access the whole episode summary along with additional materials like counterarguments and context.
Former President Donald Trump was found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records related to a $130,000 hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election, arranged by his former lawyer Michael Cohen. While Trump faces a potential maximum sentence of 136 years, he may serve the sentences concurrently for around four years. Judge Merchant denied Trump's request for acquittal and set a sentencing hearing for July 11th, just before the Republican National Convention.
The left has widely celebrated the verdict, with figures like Keith Olbermann and Don Lemon labeling Trump a "convicted felon," rhetoric which Adam Sosnick anticipates will be used heavily by Democrats in future elections. On the right, Trump condemned the "rigged trial," while Patrick Bet-David and Tom Ellsworth critiqued the charges as inflated misdemeanors and Prosecutor Alvin Bragg as a "political tool."
Sosnick suggests the verdict could sway up to 3.2 million undecided or moderate voters away from Trump in 2024 based on polling data. However, it may also energize Trump's core base. The Democrats may use the "convicted felon" label and rhetoric to derail Trump's campaign, while the timing of the July 11th sentencing aims to disrupt his convention.
Trump, Ron DeSantis, and others voice concerns that the trial was politically motivated, alleging bias from the judge and prosecutors. They fear this conviction sets a precedent for abusing the justice system against political opponents, comparing it to a "kangaroo court" with doubts over jury instructions and evidence.
1-Page Summary
Former President Trump faces significant legal challenges following a recent verdict.
Trump has been found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree, charges that are related to a $130,000 hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election. His former personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, testified that Trump directed the payment to Daniels in 2016.
The conviction specifically revolves around the hush money paid to Daniels, which was arranged by Michael Cohen as an effort to prevent any negative impact on Trump's campaign.
The potential legal consequences are severe; Trump could face up to four years in prison for each count. While it’s possible for the sentences to run consecutively, potentially leading to 136 years, he may also serve them concurrently, which would substantially reduce the time spent in prison to four ...
The details of the Trump verdict and potential legal consequences
...
The political landscape is sharply divided after a pivotal verdict, with commentators and the public from both sides of the political spectrum reacting strongly.
The left's reaction to the verdict has been predominantly celebratory. Prominent Democrats and left-leaning commentators have not held back in emphasizing the guilty verdict and Trump’s new status as a convicted criminal. Sosnick notes that the events will bring a surge of energy to Democrats who have been lacking exciting rallying points, and this verdict against Trump provides one.
Adam Sosnick expresses concern over the division this verdict has deepened, noting the intense conflict it has stirred among Americans. The hosts discuss the notion that Democrats are poised to employ the "convicted felon" label in their political rhetoric against Trump and his supporters, anticipating that the label will feature prominently in future elections and public discourse.
There are concerns that Democrats will relentlessly use this verdict in their strategies, with Keith Olbermann, Jeff Tiedrich, Brian Krasnostein, Brian Tyler Cohen, Don Lemon, and The Lincoln Project all publicly responding to the verdict. There's even speculation about how frequently the term "convicted felon" will be used by Biden and others during debates and in campaign materials, highlighting its potential as a rhetorical weapon.
On the other side, figures on the political right have strongly condemned the verdict as unjust. Many conservatives view the trial and verdict as a politically-motivated attack meant to discredit Trump and as a threat to the rule of law. Patrick Bet-David reads tweets from figures on the right reflecting this sentiment. Donald Trump himself has called the trial a "disgrace" and a "rigged trial by a conflicted judge," vociferously proclai ...
Reactions and rhetoric from both political sides
Adam Sosnick discusses how the events surrounding a hypothetical conviction of Donald Trump could have a palpable impact on the 2024 presidential election, affecting voter opinions and campaign strategies.
Sosnick translates polling data into a potential shift of 3.2 million voters away from Trump, considering that 75 million people voted for him in the previous election. Four percent of Trump voters have indicated they would not vote for him again, while 16 percent stated they would reconsider their support if Trump was convicted. A shift of even a small portion of these voters could be critical to Trump's lead in national and swing state polls, particularly among undecided or moderate voters.
The potential movement of around 3 million Trump supporters away from Trump highlights how a conviction could sway the election.
On the other hand, the verdict may galvanize Trump's core base, leading to increased mobilization among his most ardent followers.
The sentencing hearing is scheduled for July 11th at 10 a.m., just four days before the RNC in Milwaukee, which r ...
Potential impact on the 2024 presidential election
Tom Ellsworth, Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and Oshana voice strong concerns over the integrity of the justice system and the potential for its abuse of power, especially in light of recent events surrounding Trump's legal challenges.
Trump and his allies have asserted that the trial was politically motivated, voicing allegations of bias and suggesting that the justice system has been inappropriately used against him.
Ellsworth maintains faith in the American system, including the Supreme Court, but indicates concern over the manipulation of the system for political ends. Donald Trump has argued that his trial was rigged by the Biden administration to harm a political opponent, while Ron DeSantis believes the legal process in places like New York City has bent to political will. Oshana views the verdict as evidence of a "deep state" and criticizes the lack of legal action against figures such as the Clintons and the Bidens compared to the charges brought against Trump, inferring bias and a double standard in the justice system.
Concerns about the integrity of the justice system and potential abuse of power
Download the Shortform Chrome extension for your browser