Home Team | PBD Podcast | Ep. 329
In the latest episode of PBD Podcast, host Patrick Bet-David along with panelists Vincent Oshana, Adam Sosnick, and Tom Ellsworth take a deep dive into the ever-evolving intersection of politics, economics, and the role of prominent public figures. From Gavin Newsom's rising presidential prospects and his policies addressing homelessness to Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson's delicate dance between Hollywood fame and political ambition, the episode "Home Team" uncovers the intricate balancing act that shapes America's leadership landscape.
Touching on both the macro and the micro, the team sheds light on urban dynamics, discussing the potential shift of financial power from New York City to Miami, the ongoing crisis in the commercial real estate market, and the changing tides of migration patterns affecting cities like Chicago. The episode also doesn't shy away from contemplating the implications of U.S.-China relations amidst turbulent political times. Join this dynamic panel as they humorously yet thoughtfully analyze how economic indicators, celebrity influence, and strategic urban planning play pivotal roles in our society's collective future.
This is a preview of the Shortform summary of the Nov 16, 2023 episode of the PBD Podcast
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1-Page Summary
The Political Landscape: Ambitions and Influence
Gavin Newsom's Presidential Prospects and Homelessness Policies
In a recent PBD Podcast episode titled "Home Team," the panelists focused on Gavin Newsom's improving odds of running for president, remarking on his notable shift from 44 to 1 odds to a stronger 12 to 1. Satire infused the discussion as Newsom's strategies to tackle homelessness were humorously scrutinized, possibly hinting at how this issue could impact his political future.
Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson's Balance Between Hollywood and Political Ambitions
The episode further delved into the potential political aspirations of Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson. The panel reflected on his balanced approach to politics during an appearance on Joe Rogan's podcast, pondering how his celebrity status might translate into a political career.
The Internal Conflicts of Public Figures: Shapiro vs. Owens
Highlighting the impacts of public disagreements, the PBD Podcast brought to light the Twitter argument between Ben Shapiro and Candace Owens, which later spilled over onto Tucker Carlson's show. Tom Ellsworth, among other panelists, emphasized the importance of resolving such disputes privately, likening it to keeping family disagreements within the home.
The Intricacies of U.S.-China Relations in the Wake of Political Turbulence
Touching upon international relations, the panel discussed U.S.-China dynamics, with particular emphasis on Gavin Newsom's actions that hinted at a potential strategic relationship with China. Concerns about China's growing influence in the U.S., increased tensions under potential Trump leadership, and the necessity of clear dialogue in Sino-American relations were key points.
Economic Shifts: Realities and Projections
The Rising Star of Miami as a Financial Hub and Its Rivalry with New York
Financial expert Ken Griffin's prediction set the stage for a debate on whether Miami could surpass New York City as the dominant financial center. Citing Miami's favorable climate and lack of state income tax, panelists acknowledged its potential, yet expressed skepticism about it fully replacing New York City's financial clout.
The Pandemic's Legacy: Transformation in the Commercial Real Estate Market
The panel also explored the commercial real estate market, currently in crisis due to remote work and technological advancements. Patrick Bet-David compared these market challenges to the 2008 financial crisis, highlighting that the present situation is a result of shifts in technological use and workplace habits rather than purely economic factors.
Analyzing Economic Indicators: From Zoom's Stock Dive to Recession Speculations
Adam Sosnick humorously commented on the plummeting value of Zoom's stock, postulating a gradual return to office work. Thomas Ellsworth presented a more stark viewpoint, interpreting economic indicators like rising unemployment claims and declining retail sales as precursors to a likely recession.
Urban Dynamics: Migration and Management
Migration Patterns: Chicago's Decline and Miami's Allure for Venezuelan Immigrants
A significant portion of the discussion revolved around immigration, focusing on Venezuelan migrants choosing Miami over cities like Chicago, which has lost its sheen. The reason behind such a permanent move was examined in light of unfavorable economic and social conditions in their home countries.
Strategic Urban Improvements: Real Needs vs. Beautification for Prestige
The conversation also focused on the importance of urban planning and improvements, using San Francisco's beautification efforts ahead of global leaders' visits as a case in point. Such strategies were debated, highlighting the question of whether such actions are taken for genuine community benefit or merely for show during high-profile events.
The Intersection of Celebrity and Politics
The Impact of Hollywood Politics on Celebrity Careers and Political Expressions
Examining the intersection of celebrity culture and politics, the panelists discussed the constraints and influences Hollywood exerts on celebrities like The Rock and how it may impact their political expressions and affiliations, particularly against the backdrop of an industry that tends to lean Democratic.
Navigating Authenticity and Advisement in Public Statements
The authenticity of public statements made by celebrities was questioned, as seen in the context of their management or advisor teams. It was suggested that figures such as The Rock may have to temper their true political sentiments to navigate the potential repercussions within the entertainment industry and maintain their career trajectories.
1-Page Summary
Additional Materials
Clarifications
- The PBD Podcast is a platform where panelists discuss various topics such as politics, economics, urban dynamics, and the intersection of celebrity and politics. The podcast covers a range of current events and issues, offering insights and analysis on different subjects. It serves as a forum for in-depth conversations and debates on relevant societal matters. The discussions on the podcast often involve examining trends, making predictions, and exploring the implications of different developments in the areas under discussion.
- Joe Rogan's podcast, The Joe Rogan Experience, is a popular platform where he engages in discussions covering a wide range of topics with various guests. Rogan's podcast is known for its diverse content, including conversations about current events, comedy, politics, philosophy, science, martial arts, and more. The podcast has gained significant popularity over the years, attracting millions of listeners per episode. In 2020, Spotify acquired exclusive distribution rights to The Joe Rogan Experience for a substantial sum.
- Tucker Carlson's show, Tucker Carlson Tonight, was a nightly political talk show on Fox News where he discussed current events and political topics from a conservative perspective. Carlson is known for his outspoken views and has been a prominent figure in right-wing media. His show was a platform for him to express his opinions on various issues, often sparking controversy and debate.
- Ken Griffin, in the context of the text, is a financial expert known for his predictions and insights into the financial industry. He is mentioned in relation to his forecast about Miami potentially surpassing New York City as a financial hub. Griffin's perspective adds to the debate on the future of financial centers and the impact of factors like climate and taxation on their competitiveness.
- Patrick Bet-David is an Iranian-American conservative political commentator, entrepreneur, author, and YouTuber. He hosts the Valuetainment and PBD Podcast channels on YouTube.
- Venezuelan migrants are choosing Miami over cities like Chicago due to factors such as Miami's geographic proximity to Venezuela, a larger existing Venezuelan community in Miami offering support networks, and the perception of better economic opportunities and quality of life in Miami compared to other cities like Chicago.
- San Francisco's beautification efforts ahead of global leaders' visits involve enhancing the city's appearance through various improvements like cleaning streets, landscaping, and repairing infrastructure to create a more visually appealing environment for visiting dignitaries. These efforts aim to showcase the city in a positive light and leave a lasting impression on international guests, reflecting the city's commitment to hospitality and diplomacy. The beautification projects often include sprucing up public spaces, monuments, and key landmarks to present a polished and welcoming image of San Francisco to the world. Such initiatives are common practices in many cities worldwide when preparing for high-profile events or visits by prominent figures.
Counterarguments
- Gavin Newsom's improving odds of running for president might not necessarily translate into a successful campaign, as odds can fluctuate and do not guarantee electoral success.
- Strategies to tackle homelessness are complex and multifaceted; Newsom's policies may be criticized for not addressing the root causes or for not being effective enough in reducing homelessness rates.
- Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson's potential political aspirations could be seen as another example of celebrity politicians lacking the necessary experience to hold office.
- The balanced approach to politics by celebrities like The Rock might be criticized for being too vague or non-committal on important issues.
- Public disagreements between figures like Ben Shapiro and Candace Owens could be seen as healthy debates that foster transparency and public engagement in political discourse.
- The importance of resolving public disputes privately might be countered by the argument that public figures have a responsibility to engage in public debates for the sake of democratic discourse.
- Concerns about China's influence in the U.S. could be balanced with the perspective that international cooperation and engagement with China can lead to mutual benefits and global stability.
- Miami's rise as a financial hub could be challenged by the argument that New York City's established financial infrastructure and global influence are not easily replicable.
- The crisis in the commercial real estate market might be seen as an opportunity for innovation and adaptation rather than a direct comparison to the 2008 financial crisis.
- The decline in Zoom's stock value and recession speculations could be countered by pointing out that market corrections are normal and that economic indicators are subject to interpretation.
- Venezuelan immigrants' preference for Miami over Chicago could be attributed to a variety of factors, including existing immigrant communities and economic opportunities, rather than a decline in Chicago's appeal.
- Urban planning strategies might be defended as necessary for both community development and enhancing the city's image during high-profile events.
- The influence of Hollywood on political expressions could be seen as a reflection of broader societal values and not just industry pressure.
- The authenticity of public statements by celebrities could be argued to be a personal choice, with some celebrities openly expressing their political views despite potential backlash.
- The influence of management teams on celebrities' public statements could be seen as a professional necessity to navigate complex public relations landscapes.
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The Political Landscape: Ambitions and Influence
Gavin Newsom's Presidential Prospects and Homelessness Policies
In a recent PBD Podcast episode titled "Home Team," the panelists reflected on Gavin Newsom's improving odds of running for president, observed through a notable shift from 44 to 1 odds to a more favorable 12 to 1.
Highlighting an awkward moment, the discussion included President Biden's gaffe that suggested Newsom could be his successor, leading to a tense moment with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, reminiscent of family disputes.
The discussion on Newsom's policies towards homelessness humorously implied incentivizing children to clean their rooms by suggesting a celebrity visit, drawing a parallel to the city's clean-up efforts for foreign dignitaries.
Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson's Balance Between Hollywood and Political Ambitions
The episode further delved into the potential political aspirations of Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson. A significant point of discussion was a hypothetical scenario where The Rock's career might be impacted if he endorsed Trump in the next election.
The panel speculated that such a political divergence could invite severe criticism and possibly ruin The Rock's public image and legacy. They reflected on his balanced approach to politics during an appearance on Joe Rogan's podcast, pondering how his celebrity status might translate into a political career.
The Internal Conflicts of Public Figures: Shapiro vs. Owens
The PBD Podcast highlighted the detrimental impact of airing business disagreements publicly, as demonstrated by the Twitter argument between Ben Shapiro and Candace Owens. Tom Ellsworth drew an analogy to private family discussions in emphasizing the necessity of handling such sensitive matters internally within an organization.
The clash involved Ben Shapiro publicly chastising an influential female figure, possibly a co-founder or chief executive, which prompted her to issue a poised public response. Ellsworth further critiqued Shapiro's decision to resign amidst the dispute, advocating for resolutions behind closed doors.
Adding to the discourse, Patrick Bet-David conveyed the female figure's (implied to be Owens) frustration with having to endure unprofessional and emotionally charged episodes, especially those involving religious scripture in a business setting.
Vincent Oshana contributed to the conversation by sharing his backlash experiences when addressing issues with a humanitarian angle, underscoring the widespread communication challenges rooted in ideological differences.
The Intricacies of U.S.-China Relations in the Wake of Political Turbulence
Touching upon international relations, the panel discussed U.S.-China dynamics, emphasizing on Gavin Newsom's actions hinting at a potential strategic relationship with China. The discussion included Ellsworth's insights on China's stark stance, with the U.S. facing a choice between unrestricted trade relations without tariffs or being in a stance of opposition, possibly leading to tensions over Taiwan.
The conversation highlighted Republican perspectives on trade, emphasizing that fair trade requires equitable currency exchange rates, which are undermined by China's currency practices, such as tariffs and price dumping. Sosnick concu ...
Here’s what you’ll find in our full summary
The Political Landscape: Ambitions and Influence
Additional Materials
Clarifications
- The PBD Podcast, short for "Patrick Bet-David Podcast," is a platform where discussions on various topics, including politics, business, and current affairs, take place. The podcast features Patrick Bet-David, a prominent entrepreneur and host, along with guest panelists who provide insights and opinions on the subjects being discussed. The podcast often delves into controversial and thought-provoking issues, offering a mix of analysis, commentary, and speculation on a wide range of topics. The discussions on the podcast can range from domestic politics to international relations, providing a platform for in-depth conversations on complex and relevant issues.
- The discussion delves into the complexities of U.S.-China relations, focusing on trade dynamics, strategic choices, and potential tensions over Taiwan. It highlights concerns about China's trade practices, the need for accountability in capitalism, and the impact of aligning with China on ...
Counterarguments
- Gavin Newsom's improving odds of running for president might not necessarily translate into a successful campaign; odds can be volatile and do not guarantee electoral success.
- President Biden's gaffe could be interpreted as an offhand remark rather than a serious endorsement of Newsom as a successor.
- Newsom's policies towards homelessness might be criticized for not addressing the root causes of the issue and focusing on short-term appearances.
- Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson's potential political aspirations could be seen as leveraging celebrity status rather than political experience or expertise.
- Endorsing a controversial figure like Trump could also be viewed as an exercise of free speech and personal belief, which might resonate with a segment of the population.
- The Shapiro vs. Owens Twitter argument could be seen as a reflection of healthy debate and transparency in public discourse.
- U.S.-China dynamics are complex, and Newsom's actions could be part of a broader diplomatic strategy rather than a direct hint at a strategic relationship.
- Some may argue that protective tariffs against China could lead to a trade war and harm both economies.
- The call for accountability and laws in capitalism might be countered ...
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Economic Shifts: Realities and Projections
The Rising Star of Miami as a Financial Hub and Its Rivalry with New York
Financial titan Ken Griffin's forecast sparked a debate on the podcast about Miami's potential to eclipse New York City as a preeminent financial center. Griffin has substantiated his confidence in Miami's financial future by planning a new billion-dollar Citadel headquarters there, alongside his significant local philanthropic investments, reflecting a deeper commitment to the city's growth.
Tom weighed in on the probability of Miami's rise, touching on the historical financial importance of San Francisco and recognizing Charlotte for its significant presence of major financial institutions. He predicts Miami is evolving as a financial hub due to Latin America and South America's growing economies.
Although Ellsworth concedes Miami is unlikely to dethrone New York as the financial capital, he believes it will establish itself as an important center in its own right. Adam Sosnick shares his skepticism about Miami surpassing New York, an idea he deemed unthinkable before the pandemic, partly due to Miami's identity being synonymous with leisure and entertainment.
However, he acknowledged Miami's attractiveness, stemming from its favorable weather, tax advantages, living costs, and pro-business stance, especially post-COVID-19, suggesting that while it won't overtake Wall Street, it will certainly attract some of its business.
The Pandemic's Legacy: Transformation in the Commercial Real Estate Market
The panel also explored the commercial real estate market, currently in crisis due to remote work and technological advancements. Key factors include businesses scaling down their physical space requirements as they transition to remote work and as returns to the office remain sporadic.
Patrick Bet-David compared these market challenges to the 2008 financial crisis, highlighting that the present situation is a result of shifts in technological use and workplace habits rather than purely economic factors. He emphasized his cautious approach to handling mezzanine loans urgently, drawing from his past experiences.
Vincent Oshana added that there may be opportunities to invest in this unstable market, advising caution as the market value might not have bottomed out yet. Additionally, Adam Sosnick highlighted the contrast between the problems of the 2008 crisis and those of today; current challenges are heavily influenced by the flexibility in work locations provided by technological advances, rather than the toxic loan practices that characterized the 2008 downturn. He pointed to Zoom's stock fluctuation as an illustration of how the pandemic has altered workplace dynamics and the commercial real estate sector.
Analyzing Economic Indicators: From Zoom's Stock Dive to Recession Speculations
The conversation in the podcast turned to co ...
Here’s what you’ll find in our full summary
Economic Shifts: Realities and Projections
Additional Materials
Clarifications
- Mezzanine loans are a type of financing that falls between senior debt and equity in a company's capital structure. They can be structured as either debt or equity instruments, providing capital for growth, acquisitions, or buyouts. Mezzanine debt is subordinated and typically unsecured, with repayment priority between senior debt and common stock equity. Mezzanine financing is often more expensive than senior debt due to its unsecured nature and subordinated position in the capital structure.
- Toxic loan practices in the 2008 financial crisis referred to the widespread issuance of high-risk mortgages, such as subprime loans, to borrowers who were unlikely to repay them. These loans were often bundled together and sold as complex financial products, leading to a housing market bubble that eventually burst, triggering a global financial meltdown. The toxic nature of these loans stemmed from their high default rates, which exposed financial institutions to significant losses and ultimately contributed to the economic downturn of 2008.
- Interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are adjustments made by the central bank to the cost of borrowing money. When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it becomes more expensive for banks to borrow from the Fed, leading to higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. This tool is used to control inflation by slowing down economic growth and spending. Conversely, lowering interest rates stimulates borrowing and spending to encourage economic activity.
- Surface-level metrics like unemployment and inflation rates are commonly used economic indicators that provide a snapshot of the economy's health. Unemployment rate indicates the percentage of people actively seeking employment but unable to find jobs. Inflation rate measures the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, indicating changes in purchasing power. These metrics offer a quick overview but may not capture the full complexity of economic conditions.
- Systematic downturns in the economy typically refer to prolonged periods of economic decline affecting various sectors and industries simultaneously, leading to widespread negative impacts such as rising unemployment, reduced consumer spending, and decreased business investments. These downturns are characterized by systemic issues within the economy, such as structural imbalances, financial crises, or external shocks, that contribute to a ...
Counterarguments
- Miami's growth as a financial hub may be overstated, as New York's established infrastructure, talent pool, and global financial connections are deeply entrenched and not easily replicated.
- The appeal of Miami's tax advantages and living costs may be offset by concerns about climate change and rising sea levels, which could impact long-term investments and infrastructure.
- The commercial real estate market may adapt to the challenges of remote work, with businesses finding new uses for physical spaces, such as for collaboration or community engagement, rather than traditional office setups.
- Remote work trends may not be as permanent as suggested, with some companies and employees expressing a preference for in-person interactions and the benefits of office culture.
- Zoom's stock value drop may not solely indicate a return to office work but could also reflect market corrections or shifts in investor sentiment.
- The rise in ongoing unemployment claims could be due to structural changes in the labor market or mismatch between job seekers' skills and available jobs, rather than signaling an imminent recession.
- Retail sales drops could be attributed to a variety of factors, including seasonal adjustments, consumer spending shifts, or supply chain disruptions, rather than solely economic downturn.
- The Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rate hikes are complex and based on a wide range of economic data, not just unemployment ...
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Urban Dynamics: Migration and Management
Migration Patterns: Chicago's Decline and Miami's Allure for Venezuelan Immigrants
In a discussion about immigration trends, the panel noted that Venezuelan migrants, faced with unfavorable conditions in Chicago, expressed a preference for returning to their homeland over staying in the US city. This stark choice was highlighted by Patrick Bet-David, who pointed out the severity of the circumstances that the migrants are attempting to flee from in Chicago.
Tom Ellsworth criticized Chicago's shortcoming as a sanctuary city that was not adequately prepared to welcome an influx of migrants, leading to stress on city resources, insufficient shelter, and declining living standards for residents and the migrants themselves.
Vincent Oshana expressed his grievances regarding Alejandro Mayorkas's performance as Secretary of Homeland Security, particularly his failure to address key issues during congressional hearings and the role he played in exacerbating border security challenges. Oshana also criticized the Republican Party for their pronounced uproar yet insufficient concrete actions, predicting serious consequences stemming from the ongoing deficiencies in border policy.
Strategic Urban Improvements: Real Needs vs. Beautification for Prestige
The panel also tackled the topic of urban planning and management, specifically San Francisco's clean-up efforts timed for the arrival of global leaders, raising questions about the intentions behind such temporary beautification.
Patrick Bet-David drove the point home by presenting a video showcasing ...
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Urban Dynamics: Migration and Management
Additional Materials
Clarifications
- Chicago's status as a sanctuary city means it limits its cooperation with federal immigration enforcement to protect undocumented immigrants. However, criticisms suggest that Chicago faced challenges in adequately supporting an influx of migrants, leading to strains on resources and living conditions for both residents and migrants. This situation highlighted the city's difficulties in managing the needs of a growing immigrant population within its existing infrastructure and services.
- Alejandro Mayorkas served as the Secretary of Homeland Security in the United States. He faced criticism for his handling of key issues during congressional hearings and was accused of contributing to challenges in border security. Critics expressed dissatisfaction with his performance and highlighted concerns about the impact of his decisions on immigration policies.
- The Republican Party criticized Alejandro Mayorkas for his handling of border security challenges and his performance as Secretary of Homeland Security. They were vocal about the deficiencies in border policy and expressed concerns about the consequences of these shortcomings. The party's criticisms included highlighting the lack of concrete actions taken to address the issues raised during congressional hearings. They emphasized the need for more effective measures to address border security challenges.
- San Francisco's clean-up efforts for global leaders were strategically motivated to present a positive image of the city to influential visitors. The temporary beautification aimed to create a favorable impression and avoid negative publicity during the leaders' visit. This approach reflects a common practice among cities to enhance their reputation and showcase their best features to high-profile guests. The efforts ...
Counterarguments
- Venezuelan migrants' preference for returning home may not solely be due to conditions in Chicago; other factors such as personal or family reasons, cultural ties, or opportunities in Venezuela could also influence their decision.
- Chicago's challenges with migrant influx could be a result of broader systemic issues, such as federal immigration policies, rather than local preparedness alone.
- Alejandro Mayorkas's performance as Secretary of Homeland Security might be constrained by the complexity of immigration issues, legal limitations, and political opposition, which could make addressing key issues more challenging.
- The Republican Party's response to border policy might be rooted in a different ideological approach to immigration, emphasizing security and legal entry, which could explain the perceived lack of concrete actions.
- San Francisco's clean-up efforts could be part of a larger, ongoing urban improvement strategy that coincides with the arrival of global leaders, rather than being solely for temporary beautification.
- The acknowledgment of clean-up efforts for visiting dignitaries might be a candid admission of the city's desire ...
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The Intersection of Celebrity and Politics
The Impact of Hollywood Politics on Celebrity Careers and Political Expressions
Examining the intersection of celebrity culture and politics, the panelists discussed the controls and influences Hollywood exerts on celebrities and how this may impact their political expressions and affiliations, particularly in the industry that leans Democratic.
Adam Sosnick shared his view on how celebrities, including those with moderate or slightly conservative beliefs like The Rock, often alter their political stances to align with the left-wing norms of Hollywood to protect and enhance their fortunes.
This discussion included the behavioral adjustment of John Cena, notably when he spoke Mandarin, which was viewed as catering to external monetary influence.
Navigating Authenticity and Advisement in Public Statements
The authenticity of public statements made by celebrities was questioned, as seen in the context of their management or advisor teams. Figures such as The Rock may temper their true political sentiments to navigate potential industry repercussions and preserve their careers.
The Rock's public remarks are scrutinized, with a suspicion of being shaped more by his manag ...
Here’s what you’ll find in our full summary
The Intersection of Celebrity and Politics
Additional Materials
Clarifications
- The comparison to characters from Ayn Rand's literature suggests a preference for individuals who embody strong individualism, self-reliance, and unwavering personal convictions. Ayn Rand's works often feature protagonists who prioritize rational self-interest and reject collectivist ideologies. By referencing characters from Ayn Rand's literature, the speak ...
Counterarguments
- Celebrities may align with left-wing norms in Hollywood not solely due to external pressures but also because their personal beliefs genuinely resonate with those values.
- John Cena's decision to speak Mandarin could be seen as an effort to respect and connect with a different culture, rather than just a move driven by monetary incentives.
- Public statements by celebrities might be influenced by management teams, but this does not necessarily mean they are inauthentic; it could be a strategic way to communicate effectively with diverse audiences.
- The Rock and other celebrities might be practicing prudence in their public political statements, which is a rational approach to maintaining a broad appeal in a polarized political climate.
- The suspicion that The Rock's remarks are more shaped by his management team than his own convictions could underestimate his agency and ability to make independent decisions.
- Prioritizing election prospects over personal beliefs might be a pragmatic approach ...
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