Black Friday & Kamala’s Next Steps | 11.29.24
In this episode of Morning Wire, the podcast delves into the anticipated shopping trends and economic factors surrounding the 2023 Black Friday season. With retailers projecting strong sales despite inflation concerns, the discussion examines the continued rise of online shopping alongside major discounts offered by brick-and-mortar stores.
The episode also explores former President Trump's proposed policies on domestic energy production and tariffs. Trump's plans to expedite drilling projects and exports aim to establish the U.S. as a global "energy powerhouse," shifting focus away from renewable energy initiatives. His proposed tariffs on imports prompt some consumers to make purchases early to avoid potential price hikes.
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1-Page Summary
Black Friday shopping forecasts and consumer trends
Retailers anticipate strong Black Friday sales, a continuation of recent trends
Retailers project Black Friday to be the most significant shopping day of 2023, according to a recent survey (indicating 47% plan to shop, up from 31% last year). Despite inflation concerns, retailers expect to build on increased shopper enthusiasm from 2022.
Online shopping continues impressive growth
Nearly $10 billion was spent online from Black Friday to Cyber Monday last year, up from just under $2 billion a decade ago. This surge is driven by the convenience and preference for online transactions.
Retailers offer major discounts, but consumers should remain cautious
A Wallet Hub report found 41% of Black Friday items at major retailers were not actually cheaper than their pre-Black Friday prices when compared to Amazon. To ensure the best value, consumers should cross-check deals against regular prices.
Impact of inflation and prices on holiday shopping
While inflation remains a concern, retail is expecting 5% growth
Despite inflation's challenges, the retail sector projects a 5% sales increase over last year. To find deals on essential goods, consumers are gravitating towards discount retailers like TJ Maxx and Walmart, prioritizing affordability over luxury items.
Proposed tariffs prompt some consumers to make purchases early
Consumers are wary of potential price hikes from Trump's proposed tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada. Some shoppers aim to make purchases before feeling any tariff effects, though markets have remained relatively steady amid these proposals.
Trump's proposed energy and tariff policies
Trump plans to expedite domestic energy production and exports
If re-elected, Trump intends to sign executive orders on his first day to speed up approvals for drilling projects, lift LNG export bans implemented by Biden, seek funds for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and revive the Keystone Pipeline.
Trump aims to shift away from Biden's renewable energy focus
Trump will negate several of Biden's climate policies, demonstrating the U.S. intent to remain an essential energy producer. This shift away from renewable energy is expected to favor the fossil fuel industry.
Trump seeks to establish U.S. as a global "energy powerhouse"
Through actions like forming the National Energy Council and appointing pro-fossil fuel figures like Chris Wright to key roles, Trump aims to make the U.S. a formidable competitor to traditional oil giants like Russia and Saudi Arabia.
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Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- Retailers' projections for Black Friday might be overly optimistic, as consumer spending power can be affected by various unpredictable factors such as economic downturns, changes in consumer confidence, or unexpected global events.
- Increased shopper enthusiasm might not necessarily translate into higher sales, especially if consumers are becoming more budget-conscious due to inflation.
- The growth of online shopping could plateau or even decline if there are improvements in the in-store shopping experience or if consumers become more conscious of the environmental impact of online shopping.
- The Wallet Hub report might not account for the full range of items or deals available on Black Friday, and some consumers may find value in offers not tracked by such comparisons.
- A projected 5% sales increase in the retail sector might not be evenly distributed across different markets or regions, and some sectors could experience a decline.
- While discount retailers may see an uptick in consumer interest, this could be at the expense of small businesses or higher-end retailers, which could have broader economic implications.
- Early purchases due to tariff concerns might lead to a short-term spike in sales, but this could result in a subsequent decline once the tariffs are implemented, if they are at all.
- Trump's plans to expedite domestic energy production could face legal, environmental, and social challenges that could delay or prevent the implementation of such policies.
- A shift away from renewable energy could have long-term negative impacts on the environment and could be at odds with global trends towards cleaner energy sources.
- The goal of establishing the U.S. as a global "energy powerhouse" might not be feasible given the current global energy dynamics and the increasing competitiveness of renewable energy sources.
Actionables
- You can compare prices across different retailers using a spreadsheet to track the actual discounts on Black Friday. Start by selecting items you're interested in before Black Friday and note their prices. Then, on Black Friday, compare those prices to the sale prices to see if you're truly getting a good deal. This will help you avoid the common pitfall of buying items that aren't significantly discounted.
- Create a personal shopping calendar to spread out your purchases throughout the year, taking advantage of sales cycles rather than concentrating spending on Black Friday. Research when different types of products typically go on sale (for example, electronics might be cheaper during back-to-school sales, while home goods may be discounted during white sales in January) and plan your purchases accordingly.
- Diversify your investment portfolio to include energy sector funds, especially if you anticipate policy shifts favoring fossil fuels. By investing a portion of your portfolio in energy-focused mutual funds or ETFs, you can potentially benefit from the growth in this sector without needing to pick individual stocks or have deep industry knowledge.
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Black Friday shopping forecasts and consumer trends
As Black Friday approaches, retailers and consumers alike are gearing up for one of the busiest shopping periods of the year, with anticipation for strong sales despite economic challenges.
Retailers anticipate strong consumer enthusiasm and sales this Black Friday, continuing the trend of the past few years.
Retailers are optimistic about this year's Black Friday, expecting to build on the increased shopper enthusiasm displayed last year. Despite widespread concerns over inflation that have plagued Americans for the past three years, Black Friday is still projected to be the most significant shopping day of the year. Notably, a recent survey found that 47% of respondents are planning to shop on Black Friday, which is a significant increase from the 31% who reported the same last year.
Online shopping continues to grow, with billions in sales expected over the Black Friday to Cyber Monday period.
Online shopping is seeing considerable growth, with consumers extending their holiday shopping and deal-hunting from Black Friday through Cyber Monday. This surge is attributed largely to the convenience and increased preference for online transactions. To put this into perspective, nearly $10 billion was spent online during the period from Black Friday to Cyber Monday last year, marking a substantial rise from just under $2 billion a decade earlier.
Retailers are offering major discounts, but consumers should be cautious of inflated original prices.
Although major discounts are on offer, buyers should approach deals with caut ...
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Black Friday shopping forecasts and consumer trends
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- Retailers' anticipation of strong sales may be overly optimistic, as economic challenges could lead to more conservative spending from consumers who are prioritizing essentials over Black Friday deals.
- The growth in online shopping may not continue at the same rate, as market saturation and consumer fatigue could slow down the trend, or shoppers might return to in-store shopping due to improved pandemic conditions or a desire for a traditional shopping experience.
- While major discounts are advertised, the actual value of these discounts may be questionable, as some retailers may offer deals on overstocked or less popular items rat ...
Actionables
- Create a browser extension that alerts you to price changes on items you're tracking, helping you spot genuine deals. By programming the extension to monitor price history data from various retailers, you can receive notifications when prices drop to their lowest point, not just the advertised Black Friday or Cyber Monday "special" prices.
- Develop a collaborative online platform where users can share and verify Black Friday deals they've found, providing a community-driven approach to finding true bargains. This platform could function like a social media group or a dedicated forum where users post deals, and others can upvote or confirm the deal's value based on their own research or purchase experience.
- Organize a local "swap meet" event post-Black Friday where community mem ...
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Impact of inflation and prices on holiday shopping
As we approach the holiday season, inflation remains a critical concern for consumers, prompting changes in shopping behavior and contributing to a shift in focus towards essential goods and value deals.
Inflation is still a major concern for consumers, who are increasingly focused on finding deals on essential goods.
Despite the challenges posed by inflation, the retail sector is expecting a 5% growth in retail sales compared to the previous year. Consumers, intent on finding deals, are turning their attention to chains known for reasonably priced goods. Discount retailers like TJ Maxx and Walmart are experiencing strong sales as we head into Black Friday. The emphasis on essentials is clear, with luxury items taking a backseat to more practical purchases.
Discount retailers like TJ Maxx and Walmart have seen stronger sales heading into the holiday season as consumers seek value.
This trend highlights a becoming more selective attitude, prioritizing affordability and the right price for the goods they consider necessary. Shoppers are more than ever focused on ensuring that their expenditures align closely with their budgets and the actual value they perceive in the products they are purchasing.
Consumers are wary of potential price increases due to proposed tariffs, leading some to make purchases before any effects are felt.
Looking ahead, there is some trepidation regarding potential price hikes stemming from proposed tariffs on imports from countries like China, Mexico, and Canada. These tariffs, introduced by ...
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Impact of inflation and prices on holiday shopping
Additional Materials
Clarifications
- Inflation's impact on holiday shopping behavior can lead consumers to prioritize essential goods over luxury items due to rising prices. This shift in focus towards value deals and affordability reflects a trend where shoppers are more conscious of their budgets and seek products that align with perceived value. Additionally, concerns about potential price increases from factors like tariffs can prompt consumers to adjust their purchasing timing to avoid higher costs. Retailers may also adapt their strategies to cater to cost-conscious shoppers during periods of inflationary pressure.
- The proposed tariffs mentioned in the text are trade measures that could lead to increased prices on various goods imported from countries like China, Mexico, and Canada. These tariffs were introduced by President Trump and have raised concerns about potential price hikes affecting consumers. Despite the concerns, the markets have not reacted strongly to these proposals, indicating a level of uncertainty about their implementation or confidence in companies' abilities to adapt. Some businesses are already taking preemptive measures to mitigate any potential financial impact from these proposed tariffs.
- Market reactions to proposed tariffs can vary based on factors like market sentiment, expectations about the impact of tariffs on businesses, and the overall economic environment. In the context of the text, the markets have not shown significant volatility in response to the proposed tariffs, indicating a level of stability or confidence in the ability of companies to manage any potential effects. Some companies are actively taking measures to mitigate the impact of tariffs, suggesting a proactive approach t ...
Counterarguments
- While the retail sector expects a 5% growth in sales, this figure may not account for the real purchasing power of consumers if inflation is high; a nominal increase in sales does not necessarily indicate an increase in volume sold.
- The strong sales at discount retailers might not solely be due to consumers seeking value; other factors such as convenience, store locations, and effective marketing could also play significant roles.
- The emphasis on practical purchases over luxury items could be more nuanced, as some consumers might still prioritize quality or brand loyalty over price alone, even in times of inflation.
- Shoppers' focus on affordability might not be uniform across all demographics; there could be segments of the population that are less affected by inflation and continue to spend as usual.
- The anticipation of consumers making purchases before potential price increases due to ...
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Trump's proposed energy and tariff policies and their potential economic effects
Donald Trump, if re-elected, plans to significantly alter the United States' energy and trade landscape by reviving fossil fuel projects and competing with major global oil suppliers.
If elected, Trump plans to immediately take executive action to boost domestic energy production and exports.
On day one, Trump intends to sign executive orders that will speed up approvals for drilling projects on federal lands and offshore. He will lift the ban on liquefied natural gas exports spurred by the Biden administration and seek Congressional approval for funds to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
He will expedite approvals for drilling projects, lift bans on liquefied natural gas exports, and revive the Keystone Pipeline.
A notable action of Trump’s agenda includes the re-approval of the Keystone Pipeline, which was halted by Biden on his first day via executive order. In addition to pipeline projects and drilling, Trump will also challenge reductions of carbon emissions by considering withholding funding from the International Energy Agency which is concentrated on carbon reduction efforts.
Trump will also roll back many of the Biden administration's climate and energy policies, signaling a shift away from renewable energy.
Trump aims to negate several of Biden’s climate and energy policies, such as moving from natural gas and subsidies for electric vehicle charging infrastructure. His policies will demonstrate that the U.S. intends to remain an essential energy producer, and will mark a shift away from the renewable energy sector.
Trump aims to position the U.S. as a global energy powerhouse, competing with countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Trump's strategy is to establish the U.S. as a formidable competitor to traditional oil giants like Russia and Saudi Arabia in the global energy market.
He will task the newly formed National Energy Council with overseeing this push for "energy dominance."
To oversee what Tru ...
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Trump's proposed energy and tariff policies and their potential economic effects
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- Boosting fossil fuel production may conflict with international climate agreements and efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
- Expediting drilling approvals and lifting bans on exports could have negative environmental impacts, including increased greenhouse gas emissions and potential harm to wildlife and ecosystems.
- Reviving the Keystone Pipeline has been controversial due to concerns about its impact on climate change, local environments, and indigenous rights.
- Rolling back climate and energy policies could hinder progress towards renewable energy goals and potentially increase the long-term economic risks associated with climate change.
- Positioning the U.S. as a global energy powerhouse focused on fossil fuels may not align with the global shift towards renewable energy sources and could affect the U.S.'s standing in international climate diplomacy.
- The creation of a Nationa ...
Actionables
- You can assess your energy consumption habits and consider switching to providers that use domestic energy sources to align with the shift towards increased domestic energy production.
- By reviewing your current energy bills and researching local energy providers, you can choose to support companies that source energy from domestic production, which may become more prevalent due to the policies mentioned. For example, if a local provider starts offering a plan that uses natural gas from domestic drilling projects, opting for that plan would be a direct way to adapt to the changing energy landscape.
- Consider investing in energy sector stocks or mutual funds to potentially benefit from the anticipated growth in domestic energy production and exports.
- With the focus on boosting domestic energy production, companies involved in these sectors might experience growth. You don't need to be a financial expert; start with small, manageable investments using user-friendly investment platforms. For instance, if a particular energy company is known to be involved in the Keystone Pipeline project, investing in that company's stock could be a way to engage with the sector's growth.
- Explore job opportunities in the energy sector, as there may be an increase in demand for workers ...
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