America Votes & Blue Cities Board Up | 11.5.24
In this Morning Wire episode, gain insight into the closing stages of the presidential campaigns and their respective strategies in key battleground states. Learn about the state of early voting across the country, including trends in major swing states and their potential implications for election outcomes.
The episode also details crucial Senate and House races that will determine control of Congress, from Senate contests in states like Ohio and Montana to competitive House districts in battlegrounds like Arizona and Michigan. Additionally, learn about precautions being taken in anticipation of potential unrest following the election, including businesses boarding up and National Guard deployments in certain states.
This is a preview of the Shortform summary of the Nov 5, 2024 episode of the Morning Wire
Sign up for Shortform to access the whole episode summary along with additional materials like counterarguments and context.
1-Page Summary
The presidential campaigns and their closing strategies
In the final campaign push, Trump held rallies in battleground states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina, emphasizing his economic achievements. Harris, meanwhile, campaigned intensely in Pennsylvania to solidify support.
Both camps expressed cautious optimism based on internal polls and early voting data favoring their positions in key battleground states.
The state of the early voting and its implications
Setting new records, over 75 million votes were cast early or by mail, with a relatively close partisan breakdown of 41% Democrats, 39% Republicans, and 20% unaffiliated voters.
Though Republicans gained ground in new early voters compared to 2020, especially in states like North Carolina and Arizona, analysts caution against reading too much into early vote data due to potential changing voting patterns.
Key Senate and House races that will determine control of Congress
Republican candidates hold leads in crucial Senate races in states like Ohio and Montana, giving the party optimism about flipping control of the Senate.
In the House, with Republicans holding a slim majority, around 40 seats are considered toss-ups. Key battleground states like Arizona, California and Michigan feature multiple competitive districts that could swing control.
Preparations being made to address potential post-election unrest
Anticipating potential unrest, cities have boarded up businesses and states like Nevada have activated the National Guard to secure polling sites and manage protests.
These precautions stem from concerns over a repeat of riots and property damage seen after recent elections, though doubts remain if rioters will face meaningful consequences given the lack of convictions from hundreds of past arrests.
1-Page Summary
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- While Trump emphasized his economic achievements, critics might argue that his policies disproportionately benefited the wealthy or that his claims of economic success do not account for long-term sustainability or the full scope of economic indicators.
- Harris's intense campaigning in Pennsylvania could be seen as either a sign of strength or potential vulnerability, depending on one's perspective on the necessity of solidifying support in what might be considered a key state for her campaign.
- Expressing cautious optimism based on internal polls and early voting data might be premature or overly reliant on data that could be non-representative of the final electorate, especially given the complexities of predicting turnout and behavior.
- The early voting data showing a close partisan breakdown might not accurately predict the final outcome, as it does not account for the decisions of Election Day voters, who could skew the results in unexpected ways.
- The Republican gains in early voters compared to 2020 might not necessarily translate to overall gains in the election, as early voting is just one component of the electoral process and may not reflect the full voter sentiment.
- Holding leads in Senate races does not guarantee victory, and the dynamics of a race can change rapidly, especially with late-breaking news or shifts in voter sentiment.
- The characterization of House seats as toss-ups could be challenged by more granular data or local factors that might make some of these races lean towards one party, which might not be captured in broader analyses.
- The preparations for potential post-election unrest, while prudent, could be criticized for potentially escalating tensions or for the implication that such measures are a normal and expected part of the electoral process.
- The concern over a lack of meaningful consequences for rioters might be countered by arguments emphasizing the importance of due process and the challenges inherent in prosecuting such cases, especially when considering the rights to free speech and assembly.
Actionables
- You can enhance your understanding of political dynamics by tracking the voter turnout and election results in the mentioned battleground states, comparing them with the pre-election predictions and early voting data. This will give you a clearer picture of how accurate early voting data is as a predictor of election outcomes. For example, if you noted that Pennsylvania was a focus for both campaigns, observe the election results there and see how they align with the early voting trends.
- You can foster a safer community environment by volunteering with local organizations that aim to maintain peace and order during election times. By being proactive, you can help mitigate the concerns over potential unrest. For example, join a neighborhood watch group or collaborate with local businesses to create a community response plan for election periods.
- You can engage in informed discussions by analyzing the partisan breakdown of early voters and how it might influence future elections. Use this information to understand the changing political landscape and discuss with peers how shifts in voter demographics could impact local and national policies. For example, if you notice a significant increase in unaffiliated voters, consider how this group could sway future elections and what issues might be important to them.
Get access to the context and additional materials
The presidential campaigns and their closing strategies
With the presidential race nearing its end, both Trump and Harris focused their final campaign efforts on crucial battleground states.
Trump and Harris in Key Battleground States
Both candidates concentrated their final hours in strategic locations like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Michigan that could determine the outcome of the election.
Trump held rallies emphasizing economic success
Trump rallied supporters in North Carolina, where he boasted a slight edge, and Pennsylvania, stopping in Reading and Pittsburgh. He concluded his campaign in Grand Rapids, Michigan, promoting his record on the economy and promising even greater achievements if reelected.
Harris focused on Pennsylvania to solidify support
Harris campaigned intensively in Pennsylvania, holding four rallies in one day. She aimed to consolidate support in the state, which was pivotal to Trump's 2016 victory. Her strategy involved projecting a vision of the future, underlining the significance of each vote without directly naming Trump.
Campaign Optimism and Internal Polling Insights
In the last stretch of the race, the Trump and Harris camps expressed a guarded sense of optimism, referencing their internal polls and early voting data as indicative of their respective positions.
Shift towards optimism in Harris's camp
Initially, Harris's camp exuded a gloomy outlook based on internal polls, especially concerning battleground states like Pennsylvania. However, towards the end of the campaign, there was a noticeable shift to a positive message, fueled by promising early voting numbers and favorable internal polling among those making l ...
Here’s what you’ll find in our full summary
The presidential campaigns and their closing strategies
Additional Materials
Clarifications
- Battleground states in a U.S. presidential election are crucial because they are not reliably Republican or Democratic, making them pivotal for securing the necessary electoral votes to win the presidency. Candidates focus intensely on these states with tailored campaign strategies to sway undecided voters and solidify support. Winning battleground states can significantly impact the overall outcome of the election, as they often hold the key to securing the majority of electoral votes needed to win the presidency. The strategies employed in battleground states can vary, from emphasizing specific policy issues to targeting demographics that are influential in those regions.
- Internal polling methods in campaigns involve conducting private surveys to gauge voter sentiment. Campaigns use this data to tailor their strategies and messaging. Positive trends in internal polling can boost a campaign's confidence, while negative results may prompt adjustments. Early voting data is also analyzed to understand voter behavior and trends.
- Early voting data is information about the votes ca ...
Counterarguments
- The focus on battleground states, while strategic, may overlook the importance of engaging with voters in less competitive areas, which could contribute to a sense of neglect or disenfranchisement among those populations.
- Concentrating on strategic locations might not fully capture the dynamic nature of voter sentiment, which can shift due to late-breaking developments or issues not confined to those areas.
- Emphasizing economic success is a common strategy, but it may not resonate with voters who feel they have not benefited from the economic policies or who prioritize other issues such as healthcare, education, or social justice.
- Harris's intensive campaign in Pennsylvania could be seen as putting too many resources into one state, potentially at the expense of reaching out to voters in other important areas.
- Expressing guarded optimism based on internal polls and early voting data might not be reflective of the actual outcome, as these metrics can be unreliable predictors of final election results.
- The shift towards optimism in Harris's camp could be interpreted as a tactic to generate positive media coverage an ...
Get access to the context and additional materials
The state of the early voting and its implications
The phenomenon of early voting in the United States has taken a significant turn, setting a new precedent in voter turnout.
Early voting has shattered records, with over 75 million votes cast before Election Day.
The participation in early voting has reached an unprecedented level, with more than 75 million people casting ballots early or via mail-in voting.
The early vote breakdown is relatively close, with 41% Democratic, 39% Republican, and 20% unaffiliated.
The breakdown of those early votes is remarkably close. Registered Democrats account for 41% of early voters, Republicans make up 39%, and unaffiliated voters represent 20%.
Republicans have made significant gains in new early voters compared to 2020, especially in states like North Carolina, Arizona, and Pennsylvania.
Significant to this election cycle, Republicans have outperformed their 2020 early voting records. They have gained major ground on Democrats, particularly witnessing a surge in new early voters in key states such as North Carolina, Arizona, and Pennsylvania.
The early voting nu ...
Here’s what you’ll find in our full summary
The state of the early voting and its implications
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- While early voting has seen high turnout, it's important to consider that this may not necessarily indicate a higher overall turnout, as it could simply mean that more voters are choosing to vote early rather than on Election Day.
- The distribution of early votes among Democrats, Republicans, and unaffiliated voters might not accurately predict the final election results, as early voters may not be representative of the broader voting population.
- The gains made by Republicans in early voting compared to 2020 could be influenced by a variety of factors, such as changes in campaign strategy or voter mobilization efforts, rather than a fundamental shift in voter preference.
- The interpretation of early voting numbers is complex and can be influenced by many variables, including the i ...
Actionables
- You can analyze your local early voting trends to become a more informed voter by accessing public records from your state or county election office and comparing the data with the national trends mentioned.
- By understanding the local voting patterns, you can identify which demographics or areas may need more voter education and outreach. For example, if you notice a lower early voter turnout in your community compared to the national average, you might volunteer with local organizations to help increase awareness and access to early voting.
- Encourage friends and family to consider early voting by sharing your positive experiences and the benefits you've observed, such as avoiding long lines or having more time to research candidates.
- Personal stories can be powerful motivators. If you've had a good experience with early voting, tell others about it. For instance, if you found that voting early gave you the flexibility to deal with unexpected events on Election Day without missing your chance to vote, share that scenario as a potential benefit for others.
- Create a non-partisan early voting reminder system for your ...
Get access to the context and additional materials
Key Senate and House races that will determine control of Congress
The battle for control of Congress remains heated as key Senate and House races unfold. Republicans express optimism about flipping the Senate with potential pickups, while the fight for the House seems more unpredictable.
Republicans are optimistic about flipping the Senate, with potential pickups in Ohio, Montana, and Pennsylvania.
In Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Montana
In Ohio, JD Vance, the Republican challenger, holds a narrow lead over the Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown. Meanwhile, in Montana, Republican Tim Sheehy is ahead of Democratic incumbent Jon Tester. In Pennsylvania, the race is tight between Republican Dave McCormick and Democratic incumbent Bob Casey. McCormick has framed himself as the candidate for change in contrast to the status quo represented by Casey, criticizing him for being a career politician and for supporting liberal policies allegedly out of step with the needs of Pennsylvania. McCormick has also made controversial claims, for instance, suggesting Kamala Harris influenced the vice-presidential selection process against Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro because of his Jewish faith, an accusation that highlights tensions and underscores the presence of extreme wings within political parties.
The battle for the House is more unpredictable, with around 40 seats considered toss-ups.
With Republicans currently holding a slim eight-seat majority in the House, 220 to 212, the balance could easily shift. Real Clear Politics has listed around 40 of the seats as toss-ups, signifying the unpredictable nature of the outcomes. Key House races are spread across several states, including Arizona, California, Michigan, New York, and ...
Here’s what you’ll find in our full summary
Key Senate and House races that will determine control of Congress
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- Republicans may be optimistic about flipping the Senate, but historical trends show that the party not in the presidency often gains seats during midterm elections, so their optimism might be part of a standard pattern rather than indicative of specific campaign successes.
- JD Vance's lead over Sherrod Brown in Ohio could be within the margin of error, and incumbent candidates often have an advantage, so the race may still be very competitive.
- Tim Sheehy's lead in Montana might not account for late shifts in voter sentiment or the impact of get-out-the-vote efforts that could favor the incumbent.
- The race between Dave McCormick and Bob Casey being tight does not necessarily predict the outcome, as voter turnout on election day can be unpredictable.
- Criticizing Bob Casey for being a career politician may not resonate with voters who value experience and continuity in representation.
- McCormick's suggestion about Kamala Harris influencing the vice-presidential selection process against Josh Shapiro could be seen as an unfounded conspiracy theory and might alienate some voters.
- While the battle for the House is unpredictable, incumbency, local issues, and individual candidate qualities could lead to outcomes that differ from national trends.
- Real Clear Politics listing seats as toss-ups does not guarantee those races will be close, as polling can be inaccurate and does not capture al ...
Actionables
- You can enhance your political literacy by creating a personalized tracker for the mentioned Senate and House races using a simple spreadsheet. Start by listing the states, candidates, and any key issues they stand for, then regularly update it with the latest poll numbers and news articles. This will give you a clearer picture of the political landscape and how it might affect national policies.
- Engage in informed discussions by starting a non-partisan book club focused on the history and impact of midterm elections. Select books that cover the significance of congressional races, the role of swing states, and the impact of presidential politics on local contests. This will help you and your peers understand the broader implications of the races mentioned in the podcast.
- You can practice critical thinking ...
Get access to the context and additional materials
Preparations being made to address potential post-election unrest
In anticipation of the upcoming elections, cities across the United States are taking measures to prepare for potential unrest.
Businesses in major cities have boarded up their windows, and several states have activated their National Guard.
Businesses from Washington, D.C., to Portland, Oregon, are not taking any chances as they board up their windows. These precautions have been put in place to prevent a repeat of the riots and property damage that followed the 2016 and 2020 elections. National Guard troops have been activated in states including Nevada, Oregon, and Washington in preparation for any disturbances that may occur after the election.
In Nevada, the Republican Governor has explained that the National Guard will be on hand to help secure polling places and manage traffic. Both private and public sectors are demonstrating vigilance, with Washington's Governor citing Homeland Security warnings as the reason for the National Guard being brought into a state of readiness.
The preparations are aimed at preventing a repeat of the riots and property damage seen after the 2016 and 2020 elections.
In Washington, D.C., extensive protective measures have been implemented. Businesses are boarding up, and fences are being erected around sensitive areas, including the White House and the vice president's residence. These steps are indicative of past incidents where, historically, left-leaning groups have been more inclined to engage in violent protests and riots over electi ...
Here’s what you’ll find in our full summary
Preparations being made to address potential post-election unrest
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- The boarding up of businesses and activation of the National Guard could be seen as an overreaction that may stoke fear or tension rather than alleviate it.
- The presence of the National Guard at polling places could be perceived as intimidating by voters and potentially suppress voter turnout.
- The focus on left-leaning groups as the primary source of violent protests may overlook the potential for unrest from other groups across the political spectrum.
- The assumption that past behavior (riots following the 2016 and 2020 elections) will predict future actions may not account for changes in the political climate or the effectiveness of new strategies to maintain peace.
- The doubt cast on the judicial system's ability to hold rioters accountable could undermine trust in the rule of law and the fairness of the justice system.
- The aggressive prosecution of the January 6th Capitol rioters might not be comparable to potential post-election unrest, and assuming a similar approach ...
Actionables
- You can enhance your personal safety by mapping out alternative routes to avoid areas of potential unrest, ensuring you have a way to get to essential places like work or the grocery store without encountering disturbances.
- By keeping an eye on local news and updates, you can identify which areas might be prone to unrest and plan your travel accordingly. For example, if you usually pass through a downtown area that's known for protests, consider a detour that takes you around the perimeter instead.
- Develop a basic emergency plan for your household that includes communication strategies, meeting points, and essential supplies in case of a sudden need to evacuate or if services are disrupted.
- Start by discussing with your family or housemates about how you will contact each other if phones are down, deciding on a safe place to meet if you get separated, and preparing a kit with items like water, non-perishable food, a first-aid kit, and copies of important documents.
- Engage in community building activities such as neighbo ...
Get access to the context and additional materials
Create Summaries for anything on the web
Download the Shortform Chrome extension for your browser
