Campaigns Final Days & Harris’ Alleged Platform Manipulation | 11.1.24
In this episode of Morning Wire, the discussion centers on the pivotal role of swing states in the upcoming election and the major campaigns' strategies to secure these key battlegrounds. The podcast also examines the Republicans' messaging on transgender issues, which internal polling suggests is resonating with certain voter blocs.
Additionally, the episode explores allegations of social media manipulation by the Harris campaign. Reports suggest a coordinated effort involving paid staff and volunteers to promote pro-Harris content on platforms like Reddit and X. The campaign also stands accused of altering news headlines on Google to appear more favorable. Overall, the episode offers insights into the campaigns' final pushes and the controversies surrounding alleged platform manipulation.
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1-Page Summary
Campaign Strategies in Swing States
Both Trump and Harris are heavily campaigning in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, known as the "Blue Wall." The campaigns have spent over $65 million on advertising in Wisconsin alone since July, Sanger-Katz reports. Spending and events are concentrated in these states due to their critical role in determining the election outcome. Harris has outspent Trump in Michigan, potentially due to concerns over losing support from key Democratic blocs.
GOP's Focus on Transgender Issues
The GOP is capitalizing on parental concerns over transgender issues like men in women's sports and childhood gender transitions, Sanger-Katz explains. Trump's messaging, promising action against what he calls "radical ideology," is resonating with voters, especially women. Internal Republican polling suggests this backlash could swing female voters their way.
Social Media Manipulation Allegations
The Harris campaign faces allegations of a coordinated astroturfing operation on Reddit involving paid staffers and volunteers, Howe and Presta report. Thousands of pro-Harris posts with millions of upvotes may have influenced the Reddit politics community. On X, Harris staff allegedly aim to prevent unfavorable fact-checks from surfacing. The campaign has also been accused of altering news headlines on Google to appear more favorable to Harris.
1-Page Summary
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- Campaign spending does not necessarily equate to voter support or election outcomes; other factors such as candidate policies, debate performances, and grassroots organizing can also be significant.
- While Harris has outspent Trump in Michigan, campaign spending is just one aspect of election strategy, and it does not guarantee success.
- The focus on transgender issues by the GOP may not resonate with all voters, and some may view it as a diversion from other pressing issues like the economy, healthcare, or education.
- Trump's messaging on "radical ideology" may energize his base but could also polarize or alienate moderate voters who are concerned with a wide range of issues beyond just transgender topics.
- Internal Republican polling on the impact of transgender issues on female voters may not be reflective of the broader population, as polling can sometimes be biased or not representative.
- Allegations of astroturfing against the Harris campaign, if not substantiated with concrete evidence, should be treated with skepticism, as they could be part of political smear tactics.
- The influence of pro-Harris posts on Reddit's politics community may be overstated, as the platform's users represent a diverse range of views and the algorithm's complexity goes beyond just upvotes.
- Accusations of the Harris campaign altering news headlines on Google would require thorough investigation, as search engine algorithms are complex and not easily manipulated by individual campaigns.
Actionables
- You can become a more discerning consumer of political information by setting up a personal "truth-check" system. Start by cross-referencing political claims with multiple reputable sources, and use fact-checking websites to verify the accuracy of statements and allegations. For example, if you come across a headline or a statistic in a social media post, take a moment to research it on established news outlets and fact-checking sites before accepting it as true.
- Enhance your understanding of political campaign strategies by tracking ad spending and event locations of local candidates. Create a simple spreadsheet to log this information, which you can often find in public records or campaign finance reports. This will give you a clearer picture of where candidates are focusing their efforts and how it might reflect their priorities or concerns about certain voting blocs.
- Foster critical thinking about social media narratives by analyzing patterns in posts and comments. Take note of recurring themes or language in posts that support a particular candidate or policy, and consider whether these might be part of a coordinated effort. This doesn't require any special skills, just an attentive and questioning approach to what you read online. If you notice a surge of similar messages, research their origin and consider the possibility of astroturfing or other forms of manipulation.
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Campaign strategies and spending in swing states
Both President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are tightly focused on a select group of pivotal swing states that could determine the outcome of the upcoming election, with a spotlight on the "Blue Wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Intense Campaign Activity in the "Blue Wall" States
Both Trump and Harris are heavily campaigning in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, known collectively as the "Blue Wall" states. They are making concentrated efforts to host events and rally their respective supporters to gain an edge.
In Wisconsin, which President Biden won by a slim margin of just 21,000 votes in 2020, the competitiveness of these states is evident. As of now, both campaigns have spent a whopping $65 million on advertising in Wisconsin since July, showcasing the critical nature of votes here.
Each campaign is seeking to solidify its presence in Pennsylvania, highlighted by a combined expenditure on TV ads amounting to $538 million. Adding to this electioneering intensity, Trump and Harris are frequently found crisscrossing these states, organizing events to directly appeal to voters. For example, Trump held a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin, joined by former football star Brett Favre who endorsed him, while Harris attended a youth-focused rally in Madison, Wisconsin, where she faced criticism over her stance on the Gaza conflict.
Financial Strategies Reflect Campaign Priorities
The financial arms race between the campaigns is seeing disparities in certain states, such as Michigan, where Harris’s campaign has significantly outspent Trump’s, tallying $69 million on ads since July. This could reflect Harris’s concerns over potential erosion of support from key Democratic voter blocs, notably among Arab and Muslim Americans, due to her handling of the Gaza situation. This concern is buttressed by recent polls showing Trump with a slight lead over Harris among Arab-American voters.
Interestingly, the Harris campaign has made the strategic decision to cancel ad buys ranging from $1.7 million to $2.7 million in North ...
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Campaign strategies and spending in swing states
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- The focus on swing states might overlook the potential for shifts in voter sentiment in traditionally secure states, which could be pivotal if the political landscape changes unexpectedly.
- Heavy campaigning in the "Blue Wall" states assumes that these states will remain the most competitive, but other states could emerge as new battlegrounds due to demographic or political shifts.
- The emphasis on Wisconsin's competitiveness and spending might not translate to actual voter influence if the electorate is experiencing campaign fatigue or if there are diminishing returns on advertising investments.
- The substantial TV ad expenditures in Pennsylvania could be critiqued for potentially not addressing the nuanced concerns of local communities, which might be better engaged through grassroots organizing.
- Active engagement through events and rallies assumes that these are the most effective ways to connect with voters, but some voters might prefer policy discussions or more intimate community meetings.
- Harris's campaign outspending Trump in Michigan on ads could be seen as a potentially inefficient use of resources if those ads do not effectively convert to votes.
- Concerns over support from Arab and Muslim Americans for the Harris campaign might not fully account for the diversity of issues and perspectives within these communities.
- The cancellation of ad buys in North ...
Actionables
- You can analyze local political trends by tracking ad spends and campaign events in your area to predict election outcomes. Start by collecting data from public records and local news sources on political ad buys and rally locations, then compare this with past election results to see if there's a correlation between campaign activities and voting patterns.
- Engage with your community by hosting non-partisan discussion groups to explore voter sentiments. Invite neighbors and friends to discuss what campaign messages they've encountered and how these messages influence their perceptions, without advocating for any particular candidate or party, to better understand the local political climate.
- Volunteer ...
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The Republican party's focus on transgender issues as a political strategy
In the final stretch of the campaign, the GOP is capitalizing on emerging parental concerns over transgender issues as part of their political strategy, with intentions to sway voters, particularly women.
Capitalizing on growing concerns
The GOP is focusing on visceral issues connected to the transgender debate, such as men in women’s sports and child gender transitions. President Trump has noted that these issues were not as prominent during his first presidential run as they are now.
Growing traction with voters
Due to high-profile incidents and the work of advocacy groups like Riley Gaines, transgender-related topics have gained significant traction. Trump's messaging, which includes promises to cut funding for schools promoting what he describes as "radical ideology," is resonating with voters, especially women. This shift aligns with the Republican Party's broader strategy to stand with parents on these issues.
Impact on female voter preferences
Internal Republican polling data suggests that a backlash against transgender ideology could be pivotal in swinging votes, particularly among women. Women over 55 and those under 55 in competitive districts appear receptive to the GOP's message. Mary Margaret Olohan’s reporting suggests that a majority of Americans prefer athletes to compete on teams that match their biological gender.
Trump's campaign focus
Trump is actively campaigning against the participation of men in women's sports an ...
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The Republican party's focus on transgender issues as a political strategy
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- The focus on transgender issues by the GOP could be seen as a diversion from other pressing issues such as the economy, healthcare, and climate change.
- The strategy of targeting transgender issues might alienate members of the LGBTQ+ community and their allies, potentially leading to a perception of the party as intolerant or discriminatory.
- The emphasis on sports and gender transitions may oversimplify the complex realities and challenges faced by transgender individuals.
- The GOP's stance might conflict with values of personal freedom and privacy, which are traditionally conservative principles.
- The internal Republican polling data may not accurately represent the broader population's views, as public opinion can vary widely depending on the phrasing of questions and the context in which they are asked.
- The focus on transgender issues in schools might be seen as government overreach into education and a distraction from improving the quality of education overall.
- The strategy could be criticized for politicizing the personal struggles and rights of a minority group for electoral gain.
- The assertion that a majority of Americans prefer athletes to compete on teams matching their biological gender may not take into account the nuances of public opinion on transgender athletes and the importance of inclusivity in sports.
- Advocating for federal legislation and ...
Actionables
- You can start a blog to share your personal experiences and thoughts on the impact of political strategies on community issues, focusing on how these strategies affect your daily life and the lives of those around you. This allows you to process your thoughts and engage with others who might be experiencing similar situations, fostering a community dialogue around the topic.
- Create a personal survey to gauge opinions within your social circle on topics like sports participation and educational policies related to transgender issues. By collecting and analyzing responses, you can better understand the perspectives of people you interact with regularly, which can inform your conversations and actions on these matters.
- Volunteer with a local organization that suppor ...
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Allegations of social media manipulation by the Harris campaign
The Harris campaign faces serious accusations of social media manipulation aimed at artificially boosting her popularity and circulating disinformation.
The Harris campaign is accused of running a vast astroturfing operation on Reddit
Georgia Howe and Amanda Presta from The Daily Wire discuss alleged coordinated efforts by the Harris campaign on Reddit. An investigation by the Federalist has unearthed what appears to be an extensive astroturfing operation. This orchestrated campaign involved both paid staffers and volunteers, who were directed to make posts in specific online spaces using specific language to target demographics like women or swing voters.
This coordinated effort has resulted in thousands of posts receiving millions of upvotes and hundreds of thousands of comments, potentially influencing Reddit's influential politics community.
The operation has purportedly led to thousands of posts receiving over 5.7 million upvotes and more than 400,000 comments in just 15 days. In a single month, 126 of the top 1000 posts on Reddit's politics subreddit were supposedly published by Harris campaign volunteers, significantly influencing the community’s perceptions.
On the social media platform X, Harris staffers are said to be working to block unfavorable "community notes" (fact-checks) on posts from pro-Harris accounts, allowing the spread of misinformation.
Georgia Howe reveals activities on platform X where Harris staff are allegedly steering actions to obstruct community notes—essentially fact-checks—under posts favoring Harris. With the introduction of a new user-voted fact-check system by Elon Musk, targeted downvoting of negative community notes prevents them from surfacing, hence permitting misinformation to spread unchecked.
The Harris campaign has also been accused of manipulating the headlines and subheadings of mainstream news articles on Google, making them appear more favorable to the candidate.
Additionally, the campaign has reportedly altered headlines and subheadlines of Google-indexed articles to create a more positive image of Harris. For example, a sponsored NPR story on healthcare might have its headline edited by the campaign team to favorably refle ...
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Allegations of social media manipulation by the Harris campaign
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- The allegations of astroturfing are based on an investigation by the Federalist, which may have its own biases, and without further evidence, these claims should be approached with skepticism.
- High engagement on social media does not necessarily indicate manipulation; it could also be a result of genuine grassroots support.
- The presence of posts from Harris campaign volunteers on Reddit's politics subreddit does not inherently mean there was manipulation; volunteers could be active members of the community sharing their genuine views.
- The blocking of unfavorable "community notes" could be the result of community-driven moderation rather than deliberate manipulation by campaign staffers.
- The accusation of manipulating Google headlines and subheadings would require complicity or a security lapse by news outlets and Google, which seems unlikely without concrete evid ...
Actionables
- You can develop critical thinking by analyzing different sources of information for any topic of interest, not just taking headlines at face value. Start by reading articles from multiple news outlets with varying biases on the same event or topic. Compare the headlines, the language used, and the information presented to identify any potential slant or bias. This will help you discern more objective information from potentially manipulated content.
- Enhance your digital literacy by learning how to spot astroturfing and other forms of online manipulation. Take an online course or watch educational videos that explain common tactics used to artificially boost content on social media platforms. Apply this knowledge by examining patterns in post interactions, such as upvotes and comments, on social media threads to identify inconsistencies that may suggest manipulation.
- Protect your ...
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