Campaign Trail’s Final Leg & Swing State Dark Money | 10.25.24
The 2022 presidential race remains tight as both campaigns face allegations that could impact the outcome. In this episode, the campaigns' efforts to appeal to Christian voters are examined, including Trump's prayer summit and speakers urging churchgoers not to abstain.
The discussion also centers on the 1630 Fund, a left-wing dark money group funneling over $1 billion from foreign billionaires into US elections. The group's strategic ballot initiatives related to abortion are detailed, along with some states' efforts to ban foreign money's influence.
This is a preview of the Shortform summary of the Oct 25, 2024 episode of the Morning Wire
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1-Page Summary
Close 2022 Presidential Race
According to recent polling data from The Guardian, the 2022 presidential race remains extremely tight, with Kamala Harris holding a narrow 0.2% national lead, but Donald Trump ahead in all seven battleground states. Both candidates have a realistic chance at victory by sweeping these competitive states.
Allegations Against Both Campaigns
Amidst the competitive race, both campaigns face serious allegations that could impact the outcome. The Trump campaign is dealing with claims of inappropriate behavior from a former model, as well as statements from his former chief of staff alleging Trump admired Nazi generals and held dictatorial preferences (The Guardian, The Atlantic). Meanwhile, Harris's husband Doug Emhoff faces accusations from an ex-girlfriend, corroborated by friends, of physically assaulting her in 2012 after she flirted with another man.
Mobilizing Christian Voters
Trump Seeks Prayer at Rally
Before a Georgia rally, Trump held a private prayer summit where dozens of faith leaders from various denominations laid hands on him and prayed for around 15 minutes, reflecting an urgency to seek divine guidance (Megan Basham, Lucas Miles/TPUSA Faith).
Appealing to Christians to Vote
At the rally itself, speakers urged Christian voters not to sit out the election, noting a study showing 32 million churchgoing Christians might abstain. They highlighted Harris's opposition to religious exemptions for abortion, which could alienate some Christian voters (Lucas Miles).
Foreign Money and US Elections
The 1630 Fund Loophole
A left-wing dark money group called the 1630 Fund has exploited a loophole to funnel over $1 billion from foreign billionaires into US elections. It has spent $112 million on ballot initiatives across 25 states, strategically placing abortion-related measures to energize Democratic voters (Americans for Public Trust).
State Bans on Foreign Money
While some states like Ohio have banned foreign money from influencing state ballot initiatives, a nationwide ban has not yet been implemented, allowing groups like the 1630 Fund to maneuver foreign capital into the American electoral process (Americans for Public Trust).
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Counterarguments
- The narrow lead in national polls may not accurately reflect the electoral college outcome, which is what ultimately determines the presidency.
- Being ahead in battleground states does not guarantee a win for Trump, as voter turnout and last-minute shifts in public opinion can significantly alter the outcome.
- Allegations of inappropriate behavior and admiration for Nazi generals against Trump could be countered by emphasizing due process and the need for substantiated evidence before drawing conclusions.
- The accusations against Doug Emhoff could be met with skepticism regarding the timing and motivations behind their emergence, especially if there is a lack of legal action or corroborative evidence beyond personal testimonies.
- Trump's prayer summit could be seen as a genuine expression of faith or a strategic move to solidify his base among religious voters, depending on one's perspective.
- The call for Christian voters to participate based on opposition to abortion might be challenged by the argument that religious voters have a diverse set of concerns, and not all prioritize abortion over other issues.
- The activities of the 1630 Fund could be critiqued for a lack of transparency, but it could also be argued that they are operating within the current legal framework and engaging in advocacy like many other groups.
- The effectiveness of state bans on foreign money in elections could be questioned, as money can often find indirect ways to influence politics, and a comprehensive approach might be required to address the root issues of campaign finance.
- The absence of a nationwide ban on foreign money in elections could be defended by pointing out the complexity of implementing such a ban and the potential for unintended consequences on legitimate international involvement in global issues that affect the US.
Actionables
- You can deepen your understanding of election dynamics by creating a mock election scenario with friends, where each person represents a different state and discusses their voting decisions based on current events.
- This activity helps you grasp the complexities of battleground states and the influence of national issues on local voting behavior. For example, one friend could represent Ohio and discuss how the ban on foreign money might affect their hypothetical vote.
- Enhance your critical thinking by writing a reflective journal entry on how allegations against political figures might influence your personal voting behavior or public perception.
- Reflecting on recent claims made against political figures, consider how these might sway your opinion if you were a voter in the current election. This exercise encourages you to explore the impact of character assessments in political decision-making.
- You can engage in civic education by researching the laws regarding foreign funding in elections and summarizing your findings in a blog post or social media thread.
- Investigate the regulations around foreign contributions to US elections, like the ones mentioned in Ohio, and share your insights online. This not only informs others but also enhances your own understanding of the legal landscape surrounding election financing.
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The close 2022 presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump
The 2022 presidential race presents a razor-thin margin between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, characterized by intense competition and significant allegations against both campaigns.
The race remains highly competitive, with Harris holding a narrow national lead but Trump ahead in key battleground states
Recent polling data is indicative of an extremely tight race that could tip in either direction. Kamala Harris holds a minute lead of 0.2% in the RealClear polling average, yet Trump has overtaken her in all seven battleground states. Harris had a consistent two-point lead throughout much of the month, but a shift has occurred with four polls showing Trump now leading by two to three points.
Either candidate could still win in a blowout victory by sweeping the battleground states, given the extremely close nature of the race
Given the close nature of the race, both Harris and Trump have realistic chances at a decisive victory. If either candidate can sweep the battleground states due to the competitiveness of the race, it could result in a blowout victory.
Both campaigns are facing serious allegations and scandals that could impact the outcome
Amidst the electoral uncertainty, both Trump and Harris’s campaigns are navigating allegations that could significantly influence voter perception and ultimately, the election results.
The Trump campaign has faced allegations of inappropriate behavior from a former model and claims from a former chief of staff about the ex-president's views
A former model has accused Donald Trump of groping her in 1993, with the incident allegedly occurring while Jeffrey Epstein was present, according to The Guardian. Furthermore, Trump's former chief of staff, John Kelly, has made cla ...
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The close 2022 presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump
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Counterarguments
- The narrow national lead held by Harris may not accurately reflect the electoral college outcome, which is ultimately what determines the presidency.
- Polling data, while indicative of current trends, can be unreliable and may not capture the final sentiments of the electorate, especially in a volatile political climate.
- The lead in battleground states can be very dynamic, and small shifts in voter opinion can lead to significant changes in the race's outcome.
- The concept of a blowout victory in such a tight race might be overly optimistic, as close races in battleground states often result in narrow margins of victory rather than decisive blowouts.
- Allegations and scandals, while serious, may not have a uniform impact on the electorate, as voters often prioritize policy issues or party loyalty over personal conduct.
- The impact of alleg ...
Actionables
- You can analyze the impact of regional differences on opinion by comparing your own views with those of friends or family from different states. Start conversations to understand their perspectives and note any patterns that emerge, which might mirror the battleground state dynamics in national issues.
- Develop critical thinking by examining how you react to allegations against public figures. Reflect on whether you tend to believe or dismiss claims without evidence, and challenge yourself to wait for verified information before forming an opinion, just as you would need to do when evaluating political scandals.
- Enhance your ...
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Trump's efforts to mobilize Christian and faith-based voters
In an attempt to secure the Christian vote ahead of elections, former President Trump engaged directly with faith leaders and utilized rally speeches to sway faith-based voters.
Trump held a private prayer summit with faith leaders before a rally in Georgia, where he asked them to pray for him
Former President Trump, along with Ben Carson, his former HUD Secretary, convened a private prayer summit that included dozens of pastors and ministry leaders from various denominational backgrounds. During the private backstage meeting before addressing the crowd in Georgia, Trump solicited prayers from the faith leaders, acknowledging their access to "real power". The practice of placing hands on someone during prayer, common in Christianity, was observed as multiple leaders prayed over Trump for around fifteen minutes. TPUSA Faith and United in Purpose organized this gathering.
The faith leaders laid hands on Trump and prayed for him, reflecting a sense of urgency to seek divine guidance for the nation's leaders
Megan Basham, in conversation with Georgia Howe, shared her experience of the prayer summit. She highlighted the faithful's sense of urgency to seek divine guidance for the nation's leaders and specifically for Trump. According to Lucas Miles, Senior Director of TPUSA Faith, there's a collective urgency among these faith leaders to intercede for those who lead the nation.
Speakers at the rally made a strong pitch to Christian and faith-based voters, urging them not to sit out the election
During a rally in Georgia, speakers made compelling appeals to Christian and faith-based voters, pressing the importance of participation in the upcoming election. While addressing the crowd, they pointed to a study revealing that as many as 32 million churchgo ...
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Trump's efforts to mobilize Christian and faith-based voters
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Clarifications
- TPUSA Faith and United in Purpose are organizations that focus on mobilizing and engaging faith-based communities in political and social issues. They work to unite and empower individuals who share common values and beliefs to have a collective impact on elections and policy decisions. These groups often organize events, summits, and initiatives to connect with religious leaders and voters, aiming to influence outcomes through shared faith-based perspectives. Their efforts typically involve activities such as organizing prayer summits, rallies, and campaigns to engage and mobilize faith-based voters.
- Megan Basham and Georgia Howe are individuals involved in discussing and sharing insights about the prayer summit and faith-based voter engagement related to former President Trump's efforts. They provided perspectives on the urgency felt by faith leaders in seeking divine guidance for national leaders and the significance of engaging Christian voters in elections.
- Lucas Miles is the Senior Director of TPUSA Faith, a role that involves overseeing the faith-based initiatives and activities within Turning Point USA, a conservative nonprofit organization. Miles is responsible for leading efforts to engage and mobilize faith-based communities in support of conservative causes and political candidates aligned with the organization's values. As Senior Director, Miles plays a key role in coordinating events, outreach, and messaging tailored to religious audiences to advance the organization's objectives. Miles' position underscores the importance of integratin ...
Counterarguments
- Trump's engagement with faith leaders could be seen as a political strategy rather than a genuine act of faith, questioning the authenticity of his intentions.
- The private prayer summit, while inclusive of various denominational backgrounds, might not represent the full spectrum of Christian thought, and some may view it as an echo chamber rather than a diverse gathering.
- The laying on of hands and prayer for guidance is a traditional Christian practice, but some may argue that it should not be used as a tool for political gain or media attention.
- Urging Christian and faith-based voters not to sit out the election assumes that this demographic has a uniform political stance, which may not be the case as religious beliefs do not always dictate political affiliations.
- Emphasizing the importance of Christian and faith-based voters' participation could be seen as an attempt to instrum ...
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The influence of foreign money in US elections through dark money groups
A left-wing dark money group called the 1630 Fund is exploiting a loophole to funnel over $1 billion from foreign billionaires into US elections
The 1630 Fund, a left-wing dark money group, has been identified as funneling significant amounts of money from foreign billionaires into US elections. This group is particularly noteworthy for its strategic focus on state ballot initiatives as a means to indirectly influence voter turnout and outcomes.
The 1630 Fund has utilized its resources to support various political causes across many states. Notably, it has spent over $112 million on ballot initiatives in 25 states. A key strategy employed by the group is the placement of abortion-related ballot initiatives in specific states to energize the Democratic voter base.
This approach to influencing elections extends to a range of other initiatives too. The 1630 Fund has been active since 2014 and has focused its funding efforts on ballot initiatives in Arizona and Nevada, among others, which aim to enshrine abortion access into state constitutions.
Among the critiques leveled against the 1630 Fund, Americans for Public Trust has highlighted the significant role foreign money plays in American politics, made possible through existing loopholes. These critiques point to the broader implications and challenges associated with foreign financial influence on domestic political landscapes.
Some ...
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The influence of foreign money in US elections through dark money groups
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Counterarguments
- The 1630 Fund's activities are legal under current campaign finance laws, and they are operating within the same framework available to any political group.
- The focus on state ballot initiatives is a legitimate form of political engagement that is open to all political perspectives, not just those of the 1630 Fund or left-wing groups.
- The amount of money spent on ballot initiatives, while large, is part of the broader context of political spending where various groups across the political spectrum spend significant sums to influence policy outcomes.
- Energizing the voter base through ballot initiatives is a common tactic used by political groups of all affiliations and is a reflection of the democratic process where different issues mobilize different segments of the electorate.
- The initiatives funded by the 1630 Fund, such as those aiming to enshrine abortion access into state constitutions, represent genuine political positions and advocacy for rights that have substantial public support.
- Criticisms regarding foreign money in American politics may overlook the complexity of global financial interactions and the difficulty in tracing the true origins of all political contributions.
- The actions taken by states like Ohio ...
Actionables
- You can become more informed about the sources of political funding by using online databases to research the financial backers of local ballot initiatives. By doing this, you'll understand who is influencing the political landscape in your area and can make more informed voting decisions. For example, websites like FollowTheMoney.org or OpenSecrets.org allow you to see the financial contributions to different political campaigns and measures.
- You can advocate for transparency in political funding by writing to your state representatives to express your concerns about foreign influence in elections. Draft a letter or email that outlines the importance of clear and transparent campaign finance laws, using Ohio's legislation as a reference point. This personal action can contribute to a larger demand for accountability in political funding.
- You can participate in or initiate discussions ...
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