Podcasts > Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin > Some Good News on the Stock Market

Some Good News on the Stock Market

By Money News Network

In this episode of Money Rehab, analyst Ryan Detrick examines technical market indicators that suggest optimistic market outcomes. He explains how specific patterns in the S&P 500 and the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator have historically predicted market gains, and discusses how market sentiment often works in counterintuitive ways—with extreme negative sentiment sometimes signaling upcoming rallies.

The conversation also covers practical investment strategies, including portfolio diversification across different assets and geographical regions. Nicole Lapin and Detrick explore the potential of international markets, the role of gold in traditional portfolios, and the importance of maintaining a disciplined investment approach rather than making emotional decisions during market volatility. Their discussion provides context for understanding market behavior and making informed investment choices.

Some Good News on the Stock Market

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Some Good News on the Stock Market

1-Page Summary

Technical Market Indicators and Their Predictive Power

Analyst Ryan Detrick discusses several technical indicators that suggest optimistic market outcomes despite recent volatility. He points to a particularly powerful signal: when the S&P 500 gains 1.5% or more for three consecutive days, the market has shown positive returns 90% of the time over the following six months, and 100% of the time over one year, based on data since 1950.

Detrick also highlights the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator, which measures market momentum by tracking advancing versus declining stocks. According to Ned Davis Research, this indicator has successfully predicted market gains in all 19 instances since World War II. When combined with other positive signals and a calming VIX (dropping below 25), these indicators suggest market stabilization ahead.

Diversification and Asset Allocation Strategies

Detrick emphasizes the importance of portfolio diversification across different assets and geographical regions. He particularly recommends increasing international exposure, noting strong performances in markets like Germany, China, and several African countries. For investors new to international markets, Nicole Lapin suggests using low-cost ETFs like VEA, VXUS, and VEU.

The conversation also touches on gold as a diversification tool, with Detrick suggesting it could be incorporated within the bond portion of a traditional 60/40 portfolio. He advocates for a disciplined "set it and forget it" approach, emphasizing the benefits of dollar-cost averaging through regular investments in retirement accounts.

The Role of Sentiment and Psychology in Investing

Market sentiment often works in counterintuitive ways, according to Detrick. He explains that extreme negative sentiment and high levels of short selling can actually signal upcoming market rallies, comparing it to a beach ball being pushed underwater that eventually surges upward.

Nicole Lapin advocates for focusing on charts rather than emotions when making investment decisions, as emotional responses often lead to suboptimal choices. Detrick agrees, pointing out how fear-driven decisions, such as selling during market drops, can harm long-term investment success. He emphasizes the importance of recognizing and overcoming psychological biases in investment decision-making.

1-Page Summary

Additional Materials

Counterarguments

  • Past performance of the S&P 500 may not be indicative of future results, and relying on historical patterns could lead to overconfidence in predictive models.
  • The Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator, while historically accurate, may not account for unprecedented market conditions or structural changes in the economy.
  • A calming VIX does not guarantee market stabilization, as it is only one measure of market sentiment and can be influenced by short-term factors.
  • Diversification is generally a sound strategy, but over-diversification can lead to dilution of returns and increased complexity in managing a portfolio.
  • International markets carry their own set of risks, including political instability, currency fluctuations, and different regulatory environments, which may not be suitable for all investors.
  • Low-cost ETFs are efficient for gaining exposure to international markets, but they may not capture the nuances of local markets and can be subject to tracking errors.
  • Gold's role as a diversifier is debated, as its price can be volatile and may not always move inversely to equities or bonds.
  • Dollar-cost averaging is a disciplined approach, but it may not always be optimal compared to lump-sum investing, particularly in rising markets.
  • Extreme negative sentiment and high short selling could sometimes accurately reflect fundamental issues with the market or specific securities, leading to further declines rather than rallies.
  • While focusing on charts can help remove emotion from investing, it can also lead to ignoring fundamental changes in the market or a company's prospects.
  • Fear-driven decisions can be harmful, but so can excessive risk-taking or ignoring market warning signs, suggesting a balanced approach is necessary.
  • Overcoming psychological biases is important, but complete removal of emotion from investment decision-making may not be possible or even desirable, as intuition can sometimes provide valuable insights.

Actionables

  • You can create a simple market trend journal to track patterns like the S&P 500's performance over consecutive days, noting down instances when it gains 1.5% for three days in a row and observing the market's behavior afterward. This practice will help you identify if such patterns align with your own investment outcomes and can inform your future investment decisions.
  • Develop a habit of reviewing a mix of global financial news sources weekly to increase your understanding of international markets, which can guide you in adjusting your portfolio's international exposure. By doing so, you'll gain insights into different economic climates and potential investment opportunities that aren't limited to your home country's market.
  • Engage in a monthly investment reflection session where you review your investment decisions from the past month, assess the role emotions may have played, and plan for more chart-focused strategies moving forward. This self-assessment can help you recognize emotional patterns that may have influenced past investment choices and reinforce a more data-driven approach.

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Some Good News on the Stock Market

Technical Market Indicators and Their Predictive Power

Analyst Ryan Detrick sheds light on the technical market indicators that can foreshadow future market performance, providing optimism despite recent market scares.

Certain Metrics Foreshadow Future Market Performance

Detrick points out that even with a pullback in the markets, such as the 25% stock gain last year despite a three-day market scare in the first week of August, other indicators suggest the financial markets are more stable than they seem.

S&P 500 Gains 1.5%+ for 3 Days Often Yields Positive 6-Month and 1-Year Returns In 90% of Cases

Detrick illustrates a specific bullish signal: when the S&P 500 gains one and a half percent for three consecutive days. This phenomenon has occurred 10 times since 1950, and in 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 was up six months later, and it was higher all 10 times one year later. Detrick further notes that the average return after such a three-day gain is over 20 percent, implying a strong positive correlation with future market performance.

"Zweig Breadth Thrust" Triggers Bullish Signals Before Rallies

Detrick also brings attention to the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator. Developed by Martin Zweig, it measures the number of stocks advancing versus declining on the NYSE, searching for a move from oversold to overbought conditions in a typically 10-day EMA. The Zweig Breadth Thrust is triggered when there's a swift shift in market momentum, often after market lows or sell-offs. Detrick cites Ned Davis Research, noting the market has been higher one year later after each of the 19 occurrences of the Zweig Breadth Thrust trigger since World War II.

Indicators' Combinations Offer Holistic Market ...

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Technical Market Indicators and Their Predictive Power

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • The statement means that historically, when the S&P 500 index of top US stocks increases by 1.5% or more for three consecutive days, it has often led to positive returns in the stock market over the following six months and one year. This pattern has been observed in 90% of cases since 1950, indicating a strong correlation between these short-term gains and future market performance.
  • The Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator, developed by Martin Zweig, measures market breadth by comparing the number of advancing stocks to declining stocks on the NYSE. It looks for a rapid shift in market momentum, typically over a 10-day period, indicating a potential change from oversold to overbought conditions. When this indicator triggers, it suggests a strong and swift market rally may be on the horizon, often following market lows or sell-offs. This signal has historically been associated with bullish market movements, with positive outcomes observed in the market after its occurrence.
  • Combining indicators like the Zweig Breadth Thrust and prolonged S&P 500 rallies provides a comprehensive perspective on the overall momentum and health of the financial markets. The Zweig Breadth Thrust focuses on market breadth, measuring the number of advancing versus declining stocks, while prolonged S&P 500 rallies indicate sustained market strength. By considering these indicators together, investors can gain insights into both the breadth of market participation and the sustainability of market trends. This holistic approach helps in assessing the overall market sentiment and potential future market performance.
  • The VIX, also known as the CBOE Volatility Index, measures market volatility and is often referred to as the "fear gauge." A high VIX level, like reaching 60, indicates increased market uncertainty and fear. Wh ...

Counterarguments

  • Past performance is not indicative of future results; historical correlations may not hold in the face of changing market dynamics.
  • The sample size of occurrences for some indicators, like the S&P 500's 1.5% gain over three days, may be too small to draw statistically significant conclusions.
  • The Zweig Breadth Thrust and other technical indicators can sometimes produce false signals due to external factors such as government policy changes, geopolitical events, or shifts in investor sentiment.
  • Technical indicators may not account for fundamental changes in the economy or individual companies, which can have a significant impact on market performance.
  • The VIX, while often called the "fear index," may not always accurately reflect market sentiment, as it is based on options pricing and can be influenced by factors other than investor fear.
  • Relying solely on technical indicators without considering macroeconomic factors and market context can lead to an incomple ...

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Some Good News on the Stock Market

Diversification and Asset Allocation Strategies

Financial experts emphasize the significance of diversifying investment portfolios across different assets and geographies to mitigate risk and enhance long-term performance.

Diversifying a Portfolio Across Assets and Geographies Can Mitigate Risk and Enhance Long-Term Performance

Diversifying With International Markets and Gold

The importance of staying diversified in an investment portfolio has been underscored by the prior condition of investors to favor large cap tech names before their significant drop. Ryan Detrick underscores the importance of increasing international exposure, observing positive performances in Germany, China, and several African countries. He also notes the strong performance of gold, though it may be currently overstretched.

Nicole Lapin and Ryan Detrick discuss the intimidation investors might feel towards international markets. To combat the common "home country bias," Detrick suggests using ETFs, which provide a simple avenue for diversification into developed international markets, such as Germany. These model portfolios typically allocate around 10-15% to developed international markets. Lapin suggests low-cost ETFs such as VEA, VXUS, and VEU for those looking to diversify with international markets and gold.

Detrick touches on the benefits of holding international stocks, especially when the U.S. dollar is weak. He concurs with Lapin on the strategy of buying gold during dips and mentions adding gold to some models back in March of 2023. In terms of portfolio allocation, Detrick notes it could be beneficial to have some gold within the 40% bond allocation in a traditional 60/40 portfolio, referring to GLD as a prominent gold ETF.

Balanced Asset Allocation Over "Hot" Sectors Pays Dividends

Detrick comments on the portfolio strategy at Carson Group, mentioning an initial overweight in equities but diversification into othe ...

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Diversification and Asset Allocation Strategies

Additional Materials

Counterarguments

  • Diversification may not always lead to enhanced long-term performance if the selected assets or geographies underperform consistently or if the investor fails to rebalance the portfolio appropriately.
  • International markets can carry additional risks such as political instability, currency fluctuations, and different regulatory environments that may not be suitable for all investors.
  • Gold does not produce income like dividends or interest and its price can be highly volatile, which may not align with the goals or risk tolerance of certain investors.
  • ETFs, while providing diversification, also come with their own set of risks and costs, such as tracking error, liquidity issues, and management fees that can affect returns.
  • Over-reliance on low-cost ETFs may lead to underexposure to potentially rewarding investment opportunities that are not captured by these funds.
  • Holding international stocks as a hedge against a weak U.S. dollar assumes that currency movements can be predicted accurately, which is often not the case.
  • Allocating a portion of the bond allocation to gold might not provide the same level of income or stability expected from traditional fixed-income investments.
  • Geographic diversification is not a guarantee of positive outcomes, as all markets can experience downturns simultaneously du ...

Actionables

  • You can create a visual map of your current investments to identify geographic and sector gaps. Start by listing your current assets and their locations on a world map template. This visual aid will help you see where you might be over-concentrated and where you have opportunities to diversify. For example, if you notice you have no investments in Asia, you might consider researching funds that focus on that region.
  • Set up automatic alerts for currency exchange rates to inform your international investment timing. Use a free online currency tracker to get notifications when the U.S. dollar weakens against other currencies. This can signal a potentially favorable time to invest in international stocks or funds, as your dollars may buy more in foreign markets.
  • Engage in a monthly "portfolio balancing day" where you review and adju ...

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Some Good News on the Stock Market

The Role of Sentiment and Psychology in Investing

Investing isn't just about numbers and trends; it's deeply entwined with human psychology and sentiment. Ryan Detrick and Nicole Lapin explore how emotions and perceptions significantly impact market fluctuations and investment outcomes.

Extreme Market Sentiment Signals Contrarian Opportunities

Sentiment in the investing world can often be a signal for contrarian opportunities. Ryan Detrick cites instances of extreme negativity and negative calls made by people as indicative of the market's sentiment. He points out that high levels of negative sentiment, alongside a prevalence of short selling—where investors bet against stocks—can often lead to a rally. This is because when the market starts to recover, short sellers buy back shares to cover their positions, resulting in additional buying pressure. Detrick likens this to a beach ball being pushed underwater; once released, it surges upwards. He suggests that such overall negativity, while seemingly detrimental, can present positive scenarios for alert investors.

Similarly, when the investing public is excessively bullish or bearish, it could signal a time to act in opposition. For instance, Detrick references the cover of Barron's magazine featuring gold bars at the height of gold's popularity as an indication that it might be time for the run to pause. This sentiment-driven peak, he recalls, was marked by the GLD ETF surpassing the SPY ETF in assets, which turned out to be a major turning point for gold prices.

Emotions May Lead To Suboptimal Investment Decisions, Underscoring the Need For Rationality

Nicole Lapin suggests favoring charts over sentiments in making investment decisions, as they remove "the drama and emotion" from investing. Emotions often lead to suboptimal decisions, as illustrated by investors who sell off their holdings in the wake of a market drop. Detrick discusses this tendency to sell when the market is down, even if an individual might have favo ...

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The Role of Sentiment and Psychology in Investing

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Contrarian opportunities in investing involve going against the prevailing market sentiment. When investors are overwhelmingly negative or positive about a particular asset, it can signal a potential opportunity to take a different stance. Contrarians believe that when the majority of market participants are leaning one way, it may be a sign that the market is due for a reversal. By identifying these sentiment extremes, investors can potentially capitalize on market movements that go against the popular opinion.
  • Short selling in the stock market is a trading strategy where an investor borrows shares of a stock from a broker and sells them on the market with the expectation that the stock price will decline. The investor aims to buy back the shares at a lower price in the future to return them to the broker, profiting from the difference. Short selling is a way for investors to potentially profit from a stock they believe will decrease in value, as opposed to traditional investing where one buys low and sells high. This practice can add liquidity to the market and provide opportunities for investors to hedge against potential losses or speculate on price movements.
  • The GLD ETF is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the price of gold. It is one of the most popular ways for investors to gain exposure to the price movements of gold. The SPY ETF, on the other hand, tracks the performance of the S&P 500 index, which is a benchmark index of the 500 largest public ...

Counterarguments

  • While extreme market sentiment can signal contrarian opportunities, it is not always a reliable indicator, and acting contrary to the market sentiment can sometimes lead to significant losses if the sentiment is based on solid fundamental changes in the market.
  • High levels of negative sentiment may sometimes accurately reflect deteriorating market conditions or company fundamentals, and a rally may not always follow.
  • Excessive bullish or bearish sentiment might be supported by underlying economic indicators or market fundamentals, and contrarian actions could result in missed opportunities or losses.
  • Sentiment-driven peaks could also coincide with strong market fundamentals, and caution may lead to missing out on further gains.
  • Emotions are part of human nature, and completely removing them from investing may not be possible or even desirable, as they can sometimes provide valuable intuition.
  • Charts and technical analysis have limitations and may not always capture the full picture, as they often disregard fundamental analysis and external factors that can affect stock prices.
  • Selling off holdings in response to market drops can sometimes be a rational decisio ...

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