#441 — The Threat of Civil War
In this episode of Making Sense, Sam Harris and writer Stephen Marche examine the potential for civil conflict in the United States. Through a Canadian perspective, they analyze how US political instability affects international relationships, particularly noting a shift in Canadian sentiment toward viewing the US as an adversary rather than an ally.
The discussion explores several factors that could contribute to civil unrest in the US, including the approaching demographic shift to a minority-majority population by 2040, declining trust in institutions since 1980, and growing economic inequalities. Harris and Marche also address the current state of partisan division in US politics, which they note has reached levels not seen since 1876, and discuss how these tensions impact democratic norms.
This is a preview of the Shortform summary of the Oct 31, 2025 episode of the Making Sense with Sam Harris
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The Canadian Perspective on the US Political Landscape
Writer Stephen Marche discusses how Canadians view the current state of US politics and its implications for Canada-US relations. Marche describes Americans as an unstable "big brother on a [restricted term] binge with a knife asking for money," reflecting a dramatic shift in Canadian sentiment, with over half now viewing the US as an adversary rather than an ally.
Canada Must Reshape Ties Amid US Turbulence
In response to US political volatility, Marche argues that Canada must develop new security measures and diversify its trade relationships to reduce dependence on the US, particularly given the possibility of a second Trump administration.
Threat of U.S. Authoritarianism and Aggression Towards Neighbors
Marche expresses serious concerns about the US's potential slide into authoritarianism. He suggests that Trump's "flood the zone" strategy poses particular dangers to Canada, highlighting how US instability directly threatens Canada's economic and social stability.
Key Risks for Civil War in US
In their discussion, Marche and Sam Harris identify several interconnected factors increasing the risk of civil conflict in the US. These include the upcoming demographic shift to a minority-majority population by 2040, which Marche notes historically predicts political violence. They also point to declining trust in institutions since 1980 and significant economic inequalities as "threat multipliers."
Harris and Marche observe unprecedented levels of partisan hatred in US politics, reaching levels not seen since 1876. Harris describes the political atmosphere as "a colossal act of vandalism," where actions are taken not for their inherent value but to prevent future retaliation, leading to a breakdown of democratic norms.
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Counterarguments
- The view of the US as an unstable "big brother" is a metaphor that may not accurately reflect the complexities of US politics and the diversity of opinions within the country.
- The perception of the US as an adversary could be influenced by media narratives and may not represent the views of all Canadians or the nuances of Canada-US relations.
- While diversifying trade is prudent, the US and Canada have deeply integrated economies, and it may not be feasible or desirable to significantly reduce this interdependence.
- Concerns about US authoritarianism may be overstated, as the US has strong democratic institutions and checks and balances that can resist authoritarian tendencies.
- The "flood the zone" strategy attributed to Trump may not be a coherent or deliberate strategy, and its impact on Canada could be less direct or severe than suggested.
- The assertion that US instability threatens Canada's stability could overlook Canada's own robust political and economic systems that can withstand external pressures.
- The demographic shift to a minority-majority population does not necessarily predict political violence, as demographic changes can be managed peacefully through inclusive policies and dialogue.
- Declining trust in institutions and economic inequalities are serious issues, but they do not inevitably lead to civil conflict; they can also be addressed through reforms and policy measures.
- Partisan hatred is a concern, but there are also many examples of bipartisanship and cooperation in US politics that counterbalance this narrative.
- Describing the political atmosphere as "a colossal act of vandalism" is a strong metaphor that may not recognize the legitimate policy debates and democratic engagement occurring within the US.
Actionables
- You can foster international understanding by starting a virtual book club focused on Canadian and American authors. This encourages cultural exchange and may lead to a better understanding of each other's societal challenges. For example, alternate between books by Canadian authors like Margaret Atwood and American authors like Ta-Nehisi Coates, and discuss themes that touch on the societal issues mentioned.
- Enhance your personal security by learning about digital privacy and data protection. Given concerns about instability, protecting your personal information becomes more crucial. Start by using encrypted communication apps and learning about cybersecurity best practices to safeguard your personal data from potential breaches.
- Diversify your investment portfolio to include international options. With economic stability in question, spreading your investments can reduce risk. Look into emerging markets or stable foreign economies and consider investing a portion of your portfolio there to mitigate potential impacts from domestic economic fluctuations.
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The Canadian Perspective on the Us Political Landscape
Writer Stephen Marche sheds light on how Canadians perceive the instability and volatility within the US political climate and the actions they believe must be taken.
Canadians View Us Politics With Alarm and Trepidation
Canadians view the Us as an unstable, volatile "big brother on a [restricted term] binge with a knife asking for money."
Marche conveys a stark and alarming view from Canada: the United States seems like a chaotic and unstable "big brother on a [restricted term] binge with a knife asking for money." This vivid metaphor reflects the Canadian perspective on the unpredictable nature of US politics.
Half of Canadians now see Us as adversary, unlike past border harmony
He reports a significant shift in Canadian sentiment, with over half now regarding the United States as an adversary. This marks a radical change from previous feelings of harmony across the border, which once felt almost non-existent.
Canada Must Reshape Ties Amid Us Turbulence
Canada must devise security measures against Us interference
...
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The Canadian Perspective on the Us Political Landscape
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Counterarguments
- The metaphor used to describe the US might be seen as hyperbolic and not representative of the entire country or its political system, which is diverse and multifaceted.
- The perception of the US as an adversary could be more a reflection of current political tensions rather than a permanent shift in the relationship, which has historically been resilient.
- Security measures against US interference could be interpreted as overly cautious or mistrustful, potentially ignoring the benefits of close cooperation and intelligence ...
Actionables
- You can educate yourself on global politics by subscribing to international news outlets to gain a broader perspective beyond your national media. This helps you understand the complexities of international relations and the reasons behind the perceptions mentioned. For example, if you're Canadian, try following newspapers or digital news platforms from Europe, Asia, or Latin America to see how they report on the US and global trade.
- Start a personal initiative to buy locally or from countries other than the US to support economic diversification in your consumer habits. This could mean researching products made in Canada or other countries and making a conscious decision to purchase them over American alternatives. You might find that you're contributing to a wider economic ecosystem and reducing reliance on any single country.
- Engage in ...
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Threat of U.S. Authoritarianism and Aggression Towards Neighbors
Marche voices alarm about the United States' potential slide into authoritarianism and the implications it could have on international relations, particularly with Canada.
U.S. Democratic Norms Eroding, Sparking Authoritarianism and Aggression Concerns
Marche suggests that the U.S. is on a course towards authoritarianism, a shift that often provokes conflicts with neighboring countries to solidify power.
Second Trump Administration Seen As Threat, Authoritarian States Often Wage Wars to Consolidate Power
With concerns of a second Trump administration, the fear of the U.S. engaging in warfare to consolidate authoritarian power is palpable. Marche implies that this possibility is taken seriously in Canada, with measures such as nuclear armament or a "whole society defense" being weighed as counteractions against potential U.S. aggression.
Trump's U.S. Policy Causes Canadian Anxiety
Marche speaks to the specific impact Trump's policies have had on Canadian society, highlighting the profound interconnectedness between the two countries.
"Trump's 'Flood the Zone' Strategy Poses Imminent Danger to Canada"
According to Marche, Trump's haphazard "flood the zone" strategy ...
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Threat of U.S. Authoritarianism and Aggression Towards Neighbors
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Counterarguments
- The risk of the U.S. sliding into authoritarianism is not a foregone conclusion; the country has robust checks and balances that can prevent such a shift.
- The assumption that a second Trump administration would necessarily lead to warfare to consolidate power is speculative and not based on a definitive foreign policy strategy.
- Considering extreme measures like nuclear armament in response to perceived threats may escalate tensions rather than serve as effective deterrents.
- The impact of Trump's policies on Canadian society could be overstated, as Canada has its own sovereign political system and capacity to mitigate such effects.
- The "flood the zone" strategy attributed to Trump may not directly translate to an imminent ...
Actionables
- You can educate yourself on the political processes and your rights as a citizen to better understand how to prevent authoritarianism. Start by reading about the checks and balances in the U.S. Constitution, and then move on to learning about civic engagement opportunities in your community, such as town hall meetings or local advocacy groups. This knowledge can empower you to participate in the democratic process and advocate for policies that promote stability and peace.
- Consider supporting organizations that work towards international diplomacy and conflict resolution. Research groups that focus on fostering understanding and cooperation between the U.S. and Canada, and contribute through donations or volunteer work. By aiding these organizations, you help to build a foundation for peaceful relations and mutual respect between nations.
- Engage in dialogue with peers to raise awareness about the importan ...
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Key Risks for Civil War in Us
Stephen Marche and Sam Harris discuss interrelated factors that, together, increase the risk of civil conflict in the United States.
Several Interrelated Factors Increase the Risk of Us Civil Conflict
Marche states that civil wars are often the result of a complex system of interrelated factors, including environmental considerations, rather than a single cause.
Us Shift To Minority-Majority Predicts Violence From Global Trends
Marche highlights the shift to a minority-majority demographic as a significant risk factor, noting that by 2040, white people in the US will no longer make up over 50% of the population. According to global trends, this demographic change can be a predictor of political violence.
Declining Trust in Institutions Undermines Peaceful Political Cohesion
Both Marche and Harris speak about the breakdown in trust in institutions as a key aspect of the current situation, affecting the nation’s stability and cohesion.
Marche remarks on the decline in trust in institutions that have been ongoing since around 1980. This decline spans across all institutions, including the church, media, government, and even the Boy Scouts.
Sam Harris references diversity as a potential factor undermining social trust, citing Robert Putnam's argument that indicates a declining trust in social institutions and, by extension, undermining peaceful political cohesion.
Economic Inequality, Both Horizontal and Vertical, Fuels Civil Strife By Exacerbating Tensions and Grievances
Marche discusses the high levels of both horizontal and vertical inequalities, suggesting that they are much higher than in America in 1776 and act as economic, political, and social stressors. He refers to these as "threat multipliers". The collapse of the expectation that future generations will do better economically than their predecessors is mentioned as contributing to tensions and the potential for civil strife in the US.
Hyper-Partisanship and Breakdown of Democratic Norms Destabilize
Marche and Harris describe the state of hyperpartisanship and breakdown of democratic norms, indicating a destabilized political system.
Unprecedented Partisan Hatred and Tit-for-tat Volatility in Us Politics
Sam Harris highlights the visible hyperpartisanship, characterized by frank hatred of the other side politically, and Stephen Marche concurs, describing hyperpartisanship as a "classic precurs ...
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Key Risks for Civil War in Us
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Clarifications
- The minority-majority demographic shift in the United States refers to the projected future where no single racial or ethnic group will make up the majority of the population. This shift is driven by increasing diversity, with non-white populations growing at a faster rate than white populations. It is a significant demographic trend that has implications for politics, culture, and social dynamics in the country. This shift can impact power dynamics, representation, and societal norms as different groups navigate their roles in an evolving demographic landscape.
- Horizontal inequality typically relates to disparities between groups within a society, such as racial or ethnic groups. Vertical inequality, on the other hand, focuses on the gap between individuals or households in terms of income or wealth. In the context of civil strife, both horizontal and vertical inequalities can exacerbate tensions and grievances, potentially leading to social unrest or conflict.
- Hyperpartisanship as a precursor to Civil War suggests that extreme political polarization and animosity between different factions within a society can lead to heightened tensions and potential violence. When political divisions become so deep and entrenched that each side views the other as an existential threat, the likelihood of conflict increases. History has shown that civil wars often arise from a breakdown in social cohesion and a lack of willingness to compromise, which can be exacerbated by hyperpartisanship. In the context of the United States, the concern is that extreme polarization and the erosion of democratic norms could contribute to a volatile and unstable environment that may esc ...
Counterarguments
- Civil wars are complex and can also be influenced by factors such as foreign intervention, economic sanctions, or the role of digital misinformation, which may not be fully captured by the environmental considerations mentioned.
- Demographic shifts towards a minority-majority population do not inherently predict violence; many countries have undergone significant demographic changes without descending into civil conflict, suggesting that inclusive policies and strong civic engagement can mitigate such risks.
- Trust in institutions can decline for various reasons, and while it can contribute to instability, it can also reflect a healthy skepticism in a democratic society that leads to reform and improvement of these institutions.
- Economic inequality does contribute to social tensions, but it is not an insurmountable driver of civil strife; targeted policies and social safety nets have been effective in other contexts at reducing inequality and its associated stresses without leading to conflict.
- Hyperpartisanship, while a concern, does not necessarily lead to civil war; there are mechanisms within democratic systems, such as checks and balanc ...
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