In this episode of Making Sense, Sam Harris and Robert D. Kaplan examine the current state of global instability. Kaplan shares how his unique approach to journalism, combining philosophy, geography, history, and literature, helped him accurately predict many of today's international conflicts and crises. The conversation explores how environmental degradation, population changes, and modern technological interconnectedness contribute to worldwide disorder.
The discussion delves into historical parallels between current global conditions and the Weimar Republic, with insights about balancing order and freedom in democratic institutions. Kaplan also analyzes Russia's position on the world stage, discussing Putin's leadership style, Russia's military capabilities as revealed by the Ukraine war, and potential scenarios for Russia's future stability.

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Robert D. Kaplan's writing journey began at the Rutland Daily Herald in Vermont, where he found traditional journalism too constraining. With the support of his Atlantic Monthly editor, William Whitworth, Kaplan developed a unique, multidisciplinary approach that weaves together philosophy, geography, history, and literature into his journalism.
While post-Cold War optimism championed the spread of democracy, Kaplan offered a contrasting view in "The Coming Anarchy." He predicted global instability driven by cultural conflicts, environmental degradation, and demographic trends. These predictions have proven accurate, as evidenced by conflicts in Sierra Leone, Ivory Coast, Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Myanmar.
Kaplan emphasizes how environmental degradation and population growth, particularly in Africa, are straining resources and fueling urban migration. He notes that Africa's growing population relative to Europe's will likely impact migration patterns for decades. Additionally, modern technological interconnectedness through air travel, social media, and financial systems means local instability can quickly create global ripple effects.
Kaplan draws parallels between our current global situation and the Weimar Republic, highlighting how weak institutions and persistent crises can lead to authoritarianism. He references America's founders, particularly Madison, who designed robust institutions to balance between tyranny and chaos, emphasizing that order must precede freedom.
Kaplan identifies Putin as the most dangerous Russian leader since Stalin, noting his tendency for solo rule differs markedly from the Soviet Politburo's more cautious approach. The Ukraine war has exposed significant weaknesses in Russia's military capabilities, contrary to previous perceptions. Kaplan expresses concern about potential instability in Russia's future, particularly in the event of Putin's sudden departure, comparing possible scenarios to the chaos that followed Yugoslavia's collapse.
1-Page Summary
Robert D. Kaplan's journey as a writer reflects a transformation from traditional journalism to a distinctive, interdisciplinary narrative approach.
Kaplan’s writing career began at the Rutland Daily Herald in Vermont, where his experience in conventional journalism left him feeling discontented. He found the traditional methods of journalism to be narrowly focused and unfulfilling. As Kaplan sought to understand the essence of the places he reported on more deeply, such as Turkey, he began to weave a broader cultural and historical context into his journalistic work. This quest for a more holistic comprehension evolved into a multidisciplinary approach that merged philosophy, geography, history, and literature into his style.
The evolution of Kaplan’s writing style was significantly influenced by his editor at the Atlantic Monthly, William Whitworth. W ...
Kaplan's Background and Writing Style Evolution
Robert D. Kaplan's work "The Coming Anarchy" presented a foreboding vision of future global instability, which remains relevant as his predictions find confirmation in today's world disorder.
At a time when the end of the Cold War triggered widespread optimism and the belief in a peaceful, democratic world order—the "End of History" narrative—Kaplan offered a starkly contrasting viewpoint.
Kaplan envisioned a future where civilization could unravel due to an interplay of cultural conflicts, environmental degradation, and demographic trends. Contrary to the "End of History" narrative, which posited the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government, Kaplan's work indicated a darker path for global affairs.
In his examination of the post-Cold War era, Kaplan described how policy elites were forecasting a future dominated by liberal humanism, expecting democracy and good governance to spread worldwide. However, based on his experiences in Africa and the Middle East, Kaplan reported a harsher reality, inconsistent with the trajectories of Eastern European nations post-communism.
Kaplan's narrative suggested tha ...
Kaplan's Global Disorder Predictions and Their Relevance
Kaplan examines the various issues stemming from environmental degradation, demographics, and technology that are contributing to global instability.
Kaplan emphasizes that the developing world, particularly Africa, continues to face growing populations while grappling with diminishing resources, such as water and nutrients in the soil. This scarcity leads to difficulties in food production and drives migration from rural areas that can no longer sustain agricultural livelihoods to rapidly growing urban areas. These cities, which can't adequately support their expanding populations, see more people living in poverty in slums and shantytowns.
Kaplan underscores that contrary to prevalent assumptions, most of Africa is now urban, not rural. He stresses the challenge of sustaining large urban populations that require complex infrastructure to supply their basic needs effectively.
Furthermore, Kaplan highlights the population growth in Africa and the forecast that indicates a shift from a one-to-one ratio of Africans to Europeans at the beginning of the 21st century to a seven-to-one ratio by the end. This demographic change suggests that there will be implications for migration, potentially influencing European politics for decades, as a growing African middle class looks for imp ...
Key Factors Driving Global Instability (Environment, Demographics, Technology)
Kaplan employs a historical lens, likening our contemporary global challenges to those during the time of the Weimar Republic, emphasizing that weak institutions and crises can foster the rise of authoritarianism.
Kaplan draws a parallel between the Weimar Republic and today’s global situation, characterized by a sense of an "anxious, claustrophobic world". He points to constant crises, weak governments, and a lack of authoritative control as prominent in the Weimar era, leading to autocracy. Kaplan sees similarities with the current international landscape, suggesting that we, too, live in a time marked by permanent crisis and paralysis, increasingly interconnected yet devoid of coherent leadership.
He recalls how the Weimar Republic, desperate to prevent another autocrat like Kaiser Wilhelm II, created a constitution that inadvertently impaired effective governance. This incapacity to govern paved the way for a control vacuum and ultimately, the rise of Hitler.
Discussing the foundations of American governance, Kaplan stresses the fears of tyranny and chaos held by America's founders. They were wary of both tyranny and the anarchy that could come from a lack of structured authority. The historical experiences of the English Revolution and Cromwell loomed large, influencing their pursuit of a balanced system.
Madison, specifically, was skeptical of pure democracy, advocating for a republic where the public's input was indirect and elites governed—preventing what they saw as the dangers inherent in populist-driven primary elections, which could lea ...
Analogies and Historical Lessons, Particularly the Weimar Republic
Analyst Kaplan delves into the concerns surrounding Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime and how his leadership may pose significant risks globally.
Kaplan describes Putin as a risk-taker who governs alone. This type of solo rule stands in stark contrast to the Soviet Politburo's post-Stalin era of collegial, cautious, and conservative leadership.
Kaplan expresses concern about the potential instability in Russia if Putin were to get sick or die. Without a clear successor, Kaplan fears that Russia may face a situation reminiscent of the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s—rife with uncertainty and the potential for internal conflict.
Prior to the conflict in Ukraine, Russia's military was believed to be more than capable of a quick conquest, hinged on the perceived successes in Syria and elsewhere. The expectation was for tank divisions to advance into Ukraine rapidly and decisively.
However, the war in Ukraine has shone a light on a different reality. Despite prior military achievements, Russia demonstrated significant logistical weaknesses in conducting large-scale operations. There w ...
The Threat Posed by Russia and Putin's Leadership
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