Podcasts > Making Sense with Sam Harris > #440 — A World in Crisis

#440 — A World in Crisis

By Waking Up with Sam Harris

In this episode of Making Sense, Sam Harris and Robert D. Kaplan examine the current state of global instability. Kaplan shares how his unique approach to journalism, combining philosophy, geography, history, and literature, helped him accurately predict many of today's international conflicts and crises. The conversation explores how environmental degradation, population changes, and modern technological interconnectedness contribute to worldwide disorder.

The discussion delves into historical parallels between current global conditions and the Weimar Republic, with insights about balancing order and freedom in democratic institutions. Kaplan also analyzes Russia's position on the world stage, discussing Putin's leadership style, Russia's military capabilities as revealed by the Ukraine war, and potential scenarios for Russia's future stability.

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#440 — A World in Crisis

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#440 — A World in Crisis

1-Page Summary

Kaplan's Background and Writing Style Evolution

Robert D. Kaplan's writing journey began at the Rutland Daily Herald in Vermont, where he found traditional journalism too constraining. With the support of his Atlantic Monthly editor, William Whitworth, Kaplan developed a unique, multidisciplinary approach that weaves together philosophy, geography, history, and literature into his journalism.

Kaplan's Global Disorder Predictions and Their Relevance

While post-Cold War optimism championed the spread of democracy, Kaplan offered a contrasting view in "The Coming Anarchy." He predicted global instability driven by cultural conflicts, environmental degradation, and demographic trends. These predictions have proven accurate, as evidenced by conflicts in Sierra Leone, Ivory Coast, Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Myanmar.

Key Factors Driving Global Instability

Kaplan emphasizes how environmental degradation and population growth, particularly in Africa, are straining resources and fueling urban migration. He notes that Africa's growing population relative to Europe's will likely impact migration patterns for decades. Additionally, modern technological interconnectedness through air travel, social media, and financial systems means local instability can quickly create global ripple effects.

Analogies and Historical Lessons

Kaplan draws parallels between our current global situation and the Weimar Republic, highlighting how weak institutions and persistent crises can lead to authoritarianism. He references America's founders, particularly Madison, who designed robust institutions to balance between tyranny and chaos, emphasizing that order must precede freedom.

The Threat Posed by Russia and Putin's Leadership

Kaplan identifies Putin as the most dangerous Russian leader since Stalin, noting his tendency for solo rule differs markedly from the Soviet Politburo's more cautious approach. The Ukraine war has exposed significant weaknesses in Russia's military capabilities, contrary to previous perceptions. Kaplan expresses concern about potential instability in Russia's future, particularly in the event of Putin's sudden departure, comparing possible scenarios to the chaos that followed Yugoslavia's collapse.

1-Page Summary

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • The Weimar Republic was the democratic government of Germany from 1919 to 1933, facing economic turmoil and political extremism. Weak institutions and economic challenges led to its collapse and the rise of Adolf Hitler's Nazi regime. Drawing parallels to current global situations, such fragility highlights the risks of unstable governance and societal discontent in fostering authoritarianism. Understanding the Weimar Republic underscores the importance of strong institutions and social cohesion in preventing political upheaval and extremism.
  • Putin's leadership style is characterized by a more centralized and personalized approach compared to the collective decision-making process of the Soviet Politburo. The Politburo was a key decision-making body in the Soviet Union, consisting of top party officials who collectively governed the country. In contrast, Putin's leadership is marked by a more authoritarian and individualistic style, where he holds significant power and influence over decision-making processes. This difference in leadership styles reflects broader shifts in governance structures and political dynamics from the Soviet era to the present day.

Counterarguments

  • Kaplan's multidisciplinary approach, while unique, may sometimes lead to overgeneralizations or a lack of depth in specific subject areas due to its broad scope.
  • Some critics argue that Kaplan's predictions, such as those in "The Coming Anarchy," are overly pessimistic and deterministic, failing to account for human agency and the potential for positive change.
  • While Kaplan's predictions have been validated in some instances, it's important to note that not all global conflicts can be directly tied to his identified causes, and some regions have remained stable or improved despite similar challenges.
  • The relationship between environmental degradation and population growth is complex, and some experts emphasize the role of governance, technology, and international aid in mitigating these issues, suggesting that they do not inevitably lead to instability.
  • The impact of Africa's population growth on Europe's migration patterns is subject to many variables, including policy responses from European nations and economic developments in Africa.
  • Technological interconnectedness does not always exacerbate instability; in some cases, it can facilitate better communication, coordination, and problem-solving across borders.
  • The analogy to the Weimar Republic may not fully account for the differences in historical context, and some scholars might argue that contemporary institutions have their own unique strengths and vulnerabilities.
  • While the founders like Madison designed institutions to prevent tyranny and chaos, some historians and political scientists argue that these institutions have evolved and sometimes fail to prevent either.
  • Characterizing Putin as the most dangerous leader since Stalin may overlook the complexities of both leaders' contexts and policies, and some analysts might argue that there are significant differences between their leadership styles and impacts.
  • The assertion that Putin's solo rule is markedly different from the Soviet Politburo's approach could be contested by pointing out that even within the Politburo, there were periods of strong individual leadership, such as under Stalin.
  • The weaknesses in Russia's military capabilities revealed by the Ukraine war might be interpreted differently by some analysts, who could argue that they reflect specific strategic and operational failures rather than a comprehensive assessment of Russian military strength.
  • Predictions of potential instability in Russia's future are speculative, and alternative viewpoints might suggest that Russia has mechanisms and institutions that could provide continuity and stability post-Putin.

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#440 — A World in Crisis

Kaplan's Background and Writing Style Evolution

Robert D. Kaplan's journey as a writer reflects a transformation from traditional journalism to a distinctive, interdisciplinary narrative approach.

Kaplan Began As a Journalist in Vermont, Then Adopted a Multi-Disciplinary Approach To Journalism and Writing

Kaplan’s writing career began at the Rutland Daily Herald in Vermont, where his experience in conventional journalism left him feeling discontented. He found the traditional methods of journalism to be narrowly focused and unfulfilling. As Kaplan sought to understand the essence of the places he reported on more deeply, such as Turkey, he began to weave a broader cultural and historical context into his journalistic work. This quest for a more holistic comprehension evolved into a multidisciplinary approach that merged philosophy, geography, history, and literature into his style.

Editor's Influence on Kaplan's Evolving Writing Style

The evolution of Kaplan’s writing style was significantly influenced by his editor at the Atlantic Monthly, William Whitworth. W ...

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Kaplan's Background and Writing Style Evolution

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Actionables

  • Start a local blog to explore the hidden layers of your hometown, focusing on its history, culture, and geography. By researching and writing about your own community, you can develop a deeper understanding of the place you live in, similar to how Kaplan sought to understand the essence of the places he reported on. For example, if you live in a coastal town, you could write about the impact of maritime history on local culture and how it shapes the community's identity today.
  • Create a personal journal where you reflect on books, movies, and news from different disciplines and connect them to your daily experiences. This multidisciplinary approach can help you see the world through a broader lens, just as Kaplan merged various fields into his writing. For instance, after reading a historical novel, you might journal about parallels between the story's setting and current events or personal life lessons.
  • Seek feedback from ...

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#440 — A World in Crisis

Kaplan's Global Disorder Predictions and Their Relevance

Robert D. Kaplan's work "The Coming Anarchy" presented a foreboding vision of future global instability, which remains relevant as his predictions find confirmation in today's world disorder.

Kaplan's "the Coming Anarchy" Predicted Global Instability Amid Optimism

At a time when the end of the Cold War triggered widespread optimism and the belief in a peaceful, democratic world order—the "End of History" narrative—Kaplan offered a starkly contrasting viewpoint.

Kaplan envisioned a future where civilization could unravel due to an interplay of cultural conflicts, environmental degradation, and demographic trends. Contrary to the "End of History" narrative, which posited the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government, Kaplan's work indicated a darker path for global affairs.

In his examination of the post-Cold War era, Kaplan described how policy elites were forecasting a future dominated by liberal humanism, expecting democracy and good governance to spread worldwide. However, based on his experiences in Africa and the Middle East, Kaplan reported a harsher reality, inconsistent with the trajectories of Eastern European nations post-communism.

Kaplan's Predictions Confirmed Amid Global Disorder

Conflicts in Sierra Leone, Ivory Coast, Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Myanmar Follow Kaplan's Forecasted Patterns

Kaplan's narrative suggested tha ...

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Kaplan's Global Disorder Predictions and Their Relevance

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • The "End of History" narrative, popularized by Francis Fukuyama in 1989, suggests that the worldwide spread of liberal democracy and free-market capitalism would signal the endpoint of humanity's socio-political evolution. According to this theory, the fall of the Soviet Union marked the triumph of Western liberal democracy as the ultimate form of governance, leading to a future where ideological conflicts would diminish, and a universal consensus on governance principles would prevail. This concept challenged the traditional view of history as a series of cyclical struggles and proposed a vision of a stable, harmonious global order based on liberal democratic values.
  • Robert D. Kaplan's predictions in "The Coming Anarchy" focused on the potential unraveling of civilization due to cultural conflicts, environmental degradation, and demographic trends. He challenged the prevailing belief in the universalization of Western liberal democracy, highlighting a darker future for global affairs. Kaplan's work emphasized the emergence of security concerns related to environmental issues and forecasted a world where instability arises from systemic issues rather than just ideological conflicts.
  • The breakdown in Sierra Leone and Cote d'Ivoire referred to instances of political instability, violence, and conflict in these countries. These events highlighted underlying issues such as governance challenges, ethnic tensions, and economic struggles. Robert D. Kaplan observed these breakdowns as early signs of broader patterns of instability that would later manifest in conflicts in other nations like Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Myanmar. This connection underscores how localized crises can ...

Counterarguments

  • Kaplan's emphasis on cultural conflicts might oversimplify or overlook the complex interplay of economic, political, and technological factors that also contribute to global instability.
  • The "End of History" narrative, while perhaps overly optimistic, was based on observable trends of democratization and could still be argued as a valid long-term view if one considers the potential for democratic resurgence.
  • Kaplan's focus on environmental degradation as a primary security concern, while prescient, might not fully account for the advancements in technology and international cooperation that could mitigate these issues.
  • The specific conflicts Kaplan cited as evidence of his predictions might be interpreted through alternative frameworks that emphasize the role of external intervention, global economic systems, or the legacy of colonialism.
  • The idea that civilization is unraveling could be contested by pointing to areas of the world that have seen significant improvements in governance, stability, and quality of life.
  • Kaplan's work might be criticized for being too determinist ...

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#440 — A World in Crisis

Key Factors Driving Global Instability (Environment, Demographics, Technology)

Kaplan examines the various issues stemming from environmental degradation, demographics, and technology that are contributing to global instability.

Environmental Degradation, Population Growth, and Urbanization Pressure Developing World Governments

Growing African Urban Populations Strain Resources, Fuel Migration

Kaplan emphasizes that the developing world, particularly Africa, continues to face growing populations while grappling with diminishing resources, such as water and nutrients in the soil. This scarcity leads to difficulties in food production and drives migration from rural areas that can no longer sustain agricultural livelihoods to rapidly growing urban areas. These cities, which can't adequately support their expanding populations, see more people living in poverty in slums and shantytowns.

Kaplan underscores that contrary to prevalent assumptions, most of Africa is now urban, not rural. He stresses the challenge of sustaining large urban populations that require complex infrastructure to supply their basic needs effectively.

Furthermore, Kaplan highlights the population growth in Africa and the forecast that indicates a shift from a one-to-one ratio of Africans to Europeans at the beginning of the 21st century to a seven-to-one ratio by the end. This demographic change suggests that there will be implications for migration, potentially influencing European politics for decades, as a growing African middle class looks for imp ...

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Key Factors Driving Global Instability (Environment, Demographics, Technology)

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • The demographic shift from a one-to-one ratio of Africans to Europeans to a seven-to-one ratio implies a significant increase in the African population compared to the European population. This shift can lead to various implications, such as changes in migration patterns, economic dynamics, and political influences between Africa and Europe. It suggests a potential shift in power dynamics, resource allocation, and cultural exchanges between the two continents. The increasing African population relative to the European population could impact areas like labor markets, social integration, and geopolitical relationships over time.
  • The term "tense world" describes a global environment where local issues or conflicts can quickly escalate and impact other regions due to the interconnected nature of modern systems like air travel, social media, and financial networks. This interconnectedness means that events in one part of the world can have immediate repercussions elsewhere, leading to a sense of heightened tension and rapid dissemination of information and consequences across borders. The speed at which information and disruptions can spread globally creates a sense of unease and unpredictability, as local incidents can swiftly transform into international crises. The integration of various systems amplifies the potential for conflicts or disruptions to have widespread and interconnected effects, emphasizing the need for coordinated re ...

Counterarguments

  • The focus on Africa's urbanization and population growth may overlook the continent's diversity and the fact that some regions are implementing successful sustainability and urban planning initiatives.
  • The argument that environmental degradation is driving migration to urban areas may not fully account for other factors, such as the pursuit of better education, healthcare, and economic opportunities.
  • The idea that a growing African middle class will necessarily fuel migration pressures on Europe could be challenged by the potential for increased development and job creation within Africa itself.
  • The assertion that most of Africa is now urban might be too broad, as there are still significant portions of the continent with rural populations, and the definition of urban can vary.
  • The demographic shift in Africa's population compared to Europe's could be seen not only as a challenge but also as an opportunity for cultural exchange and economic collaboration.
  • The concept of a "tense ...

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#440 — A World in Crisis

Analogies and Historical Lessons, Particularly the Weimar Republic

Kaplan employs a historical lens, likening our contemporary global challenges to those during the time of the Weimar Republic, emphasizing that weak institutions and crises can foster the rise of authoritarianism.

Kaplan Likens the Weimar Republic's Weak Institutions and Crises To Paving the Way For Authoritarianism

Modern World Mirrors Weimar: Permanent Crisis, Powerless Paralysis

Kaplan draws a parallel between the Weimar Republic and today’s global situation, characterized by a sense of an "anxious, claustrophobic world". He points to constant crises, weak governments, and a lack of authoritative control as prominent in the Weimar era, leading to autocracy. Kaplan sees similarities with the current international landscape, suggesting that we, too, live in a time marked by permanent crisis and paralysis, increasingly interconnected yet devoid of coherent leadership.

He recalls how the Weimar Republic, desperate to prevent another autocrat like Kaiser Wilhelm II, created a constitution that inadvertently impaired effective governance. This incapacity to govern paved the way for a control vacuum and ultimately, the rise of Hitler.

Order Precedes Freedom; Weak Democratic Institutions Lead To Tyranny

Founders Feared Tyranny, Chaos; Designed Separated Powers, Robust Institutions

Discussing the foundations of American governance, Kaplan stresses the fears of tyranny and chaos held by America's founders. They were wary of both tyranny and the anarchy that could come from a lack of structured authority. The historical experiences of the English Revolution and Cromwell loomed large, influencing their pursuit of a balanced system.

Madison, specifically, was skeptical of pure democracy, advocating for a republic where the public's input was indirect and elites governed—preventing what they saw as the dangers inherent in populist-driven primary elections, which could lea ...

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Analogies and Historical Lessons, Particularly the Weimar Republic

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • The Weimar Republic was the democratic government of Germany from 1919 to 1933, established after World War I. It faced significant challenges like economic instability, political extremism, and social unrest. The Treaty of Versailles imposed harsh conditions on Germany, contributing to its economic struggles. The Weimar Republic ultimately collapsed in 1933 with the rise of Adolf Hitler and the Nazi Party.
  • The connection between the Weimar Republic and contemporary global challenges lies in the parallels drawn by Kaplan regarding weak institutions, constant crises, and a lack of effective leadership fostering authoritarian tendencies. By highlighting how the Weimar Republic's struggles paved the way for autocracy, Kaplan suggests that similar vulnerabilities in today's international landscape could lead to the rise of authoritarianism. This comparison serves as a cautionary tale, emphasizing the importance of strong governance and robust institutions in preventing the erosion of democratic values amidst ongoing global uncertainties.
  • The American founders, like James Madison, were influenced by historical events like the English Revolution and Cromwell's rule. They feared both tyranny and chaos, leading them to design a system with separated powers and robust institutions to prevent such outcomes. Madison, in particular, advocated for a republic over pure democracy to maintain order and stability, emphasizing the import ...

Counterarguments

  • While Kaplan draws parallels between the Weimar Republic and contemporary global challenges, one could argue that today's institutions have learned from past mistakes and are more resilient and adaptable to crises.
  • The assertion that the modern world is in a state of permanent crisis and paralysis may overlook the successes and stability achieved in various regions and the progress made in technology, communication, and global governance.
  • The idea that weak democratic institutions inevitably lead to tyranny could be countered by pointing out examples where democratic institutions have been resilient in the face of challenges, and where civil society has played a crucial role in upholding democratic norms.
  • The founders' fear of tyranny and chaos, while valid, might be contrasted with the argument that a too-strong emphasis on separated powers can lead to gridlock and inefficiency, which can also undermine democratic governance.
  • The notion that order precedes freedom can be challenged by the perspective that freedom itself is a form of order, and that the exercise of freedoms can lead to the emergence of a spontaneous order that is more adaptive and resilient than a centrally imposed one.
  • Madison's advocacy for a republic to prevent disorder from popu ...

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#440 — A World in Crisis

The Threat Posed by Russia and Putin's Leadership

Analyst Kaplan delves into the concerns surrounding Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime and how his leadership may pose significant risks globally.

Kaplan Sees Putin As the Most Dangerous Russian Leader Since Stalin, Riskier Than the Soviet Politburo

Kaplan describes Putin as a risk-taker who governs alone. This type of solo rule stands in stark contrast to the Soviet Politburo's post-Stalin era of collegial, cautious, and conservative leadership.

Putin's Solo Rule With Oligarchs and Security Creates Future Uncertainty if He Dies

Kaplan expresses concern about the potential instability in Russia if Putin were to get sick or die. Without a clear successor, Kaplan fears that Russia may face a situation reminiscent of the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s—rife with uncertainty and the potential for internal conflict.

Ukraine War Exposes Weaknesses in Russian Military Perception

Prior to the conflict in Ukraine, Russia's military was believed to be more than capable of a quick conquest, hinged on the perceived successes in Syria and elsewhere. The expectation was for tank divisions to advance into Ukraine rapidly and decisively.

Russia's Failed Ukraine Invasion Reveals Logistical Issues, Contrasting Earlier Successes

However, the war in Ukraine has shone a light on a different reality. Despite prior military achievements, Russia demonstrated significant logistical weaknesses in conducting large-scale operations. There w ...

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The Threat Posed by Russia and Putin's Leadership

Additional Materials

Counterarguments

  • Kaplan's assessment of Putin as the most dangerous leader since Stalin may overlook the complexities of the Soviet Union's history and the potential threats posed by other leaders during the Cold War.
  • The idea that Putin's solo rule creates future uncertainty could be countered by the argument that Russia has a history of strong, centralized leadership and that potential successors or governing bodies could maintain stability.
  • The perception of weaknesses in the Russian military might be challenged by noting that any military could encounter unforeseen challenges in a conflict, and Russia's military capabilities and strategies could adapt and improve over time.
  • The assertion that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has failed could be premat ...

Actionables

  • You can enhance your geopolitical awareness by starting a discussion group focused on international politics. Gather friends or colleagues who are also interested in global events and meet regularly to discuss the implications of current affairs, like the situation in Ukraine, and how they might affect international stability. This can help you better understand the complexities of world leadership and the potential risks associated with it.
  • Diversify your investment portfolio to mitigate risks associated with global instability. Given the unpredictability of the geopolitical landscape, as highlighted by Russia's military challenges, consider spreading your investments across different regions and asset classes. This approach can help protect your financial interests from the volatility that can arise from international conflicts or the actions of unpredictable leaders.
  • Educate yourself on ...

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