#403 — Sanity Check on Trump 2.0
In this episode of the Making Sense podcast, Sam Harris and author Jonah Goldberg analyze the Republican Party's shift under Trump's influence. They examine how Trump's loyalists prioritize his agenda over democratic norms, often overlooking his undemocratic actions.
Goldberg warns that Trump could erode internal checks and balances in a potential second term, surrounded by loyalists enacting his will. The conversation touches on how Trump's "America First" policy strained global alliances and undermined U.S. moral standing. They also discuss the growing influence of anti-democratic figures who advocate abandoning democratic principles.
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1-Page Summary
The Republican Party's Shift Under Trump
According to Jonah Goldberg, the Republican Party has moved towards extremism under Trump's influence. Moderates have left, while extreme figures embracing Trump's populist nationalism have replaced them. Goldberg notes the Republican party is increasingly swayed by Trump's authoritarian tendencies and loyal base that overlooks his undemocratic actions.
Prioritizing Trump's Agenda Over Democracy
Goldberg highlights how many Republicans feel pressured to align with Trump's views to avoid consequences like losing primaries or facing threats. Trump's base prioritizes his policies over democratic norms, downplaying his efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
Goldberg draws parallels to Stalin's regime, describing an environment where questioning Trump equals disloyalty. In Trump's second term, he's surrounded by loyalists enacting his will without resistance, eroding internal checks and balances.
U.S. Global Standing Undermined
According to Goldberg, Trump's "America First" policy strained alliances as he viewed relations transactionally, belittling allies while deferring to adversaries like Putin. Goldberg suggests Trump's betrayal of post-WWII principles eroded global trust in U.S. leadership.
During the Ukraine crisis, Goldberg criticizes Trump's demands for concessions like mineral rights and war profits as driven by self-interest over strategic vision, damaging America's moral standing worldwide.
Rise of Extremist, Anti-Democratic Figures
Jonah Goldberg expresses concern over the growing influence of Curtis Yarvin, an advocate for monarchy, on Republican and tech figures like Peter Thiel. While dismissing Yarvin's rhetoric, Goldberg warns that Thiel's embrace of Yarvin's ideas signals a willingness to abandon democratic norms for power among some groups.
Goldberg and Sam Harris also critique Trump administration tactics like tariffs as undermining democratic principles for personal and political gain in a "mob boss" style, enabling corruption and self-dealing that erodes trust in U.S. institutions.
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Counterarguments
- The Republican Party's shift may reflect broader societal trends and not solely Trump's influence.
- Some argue that the party's move towards populism is a response to the concerns of voters who felt neglected by the establishment.
- The term "extremism" can be subjective; what some view as extreme, others may see as a necessary correction to the political status quo.
- There are Republicans who support Trump's policies and do not consider themselves or the party to be authoritarian.
- The pressure to align with party leaders is not unique to the Republican Party or to Trump's tenure.
- Some Republicans may genuinely agree with Trump's policies and are not merely acting out of fear of consequences.
- The concept of loyalty to party leadership is a common expectation in political parties, not unique to Trump's influence.
- The "America First" policy has supporters who argue it is necessary to prioritize national interests and renegotiate unfair trade deals.
- Some believe that a transactional approach to foreign policy can lead to more equitable and beneficial agreements for the U.S.
- The criticism of Trump's handling of the Ukraine crisis can be countered by those who believe in a more isolationist or non-interventionist U.S. foreign policy.
- The influence of figures like Curtis Yarvin may be overstated, and their ideas do not necessarily reflect the views of the broader Republican Party or its base.
- Tariffs and other trade measures are sometimes viewed as legitimate tools to protect domestic industries and workers.
- Some argue that strong leadership and decisive action can be more effective in achieving policy goals than a strict adherence to traditional democratic processes.
- The erosion of trust in U.S. institutions may have multiple causes, and it is debatable how much can be attributed to the Trump administration's actions.
Actionables
- You can foster critical thinking by starting a book club focused on political history and democratic principles. Choose books that explore the foundations of democracy, the importance of checks and balances, and the consequences of authoritarianism. This will help you and your group understand the significance of democratic norms and the risks posed by their erosion.
- Encourage transparency by creating a blog or social media page where you analyze and fact-check political statements and policies. Use reliable sources to assess claims and policy decisions, focusing on their impact on democratic institutions and principles. This practice promotes accountability and helps counter misinformation.
- Develop a habit of writing to your elected representatives to express your views on maintaining democratic norms. Clearly articulate your stance on issues like the importance of alliances, the need for internal party checks and balances, and the adherence to democratic principles. Personal letters can be a powerful tool to remind politicians of their constituents' values and expectations.
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The Transformation of the Republican Party Under Trump
The Republican Party has witnessed a transformation under Donald Trump’s leadership, with shifts towards extremism, a culture of silence and loyalty, and demands for alignment with Trump's views, actions, and policies.
Republican Party Increasingly Swayed by Extremists Under Trump
Republicans Embrace Trump’s Agenda, Consider Yarvin's Authoritarian, Monarchical Ideas
Goldberg discusses the dwindling presence of "normie" Republicans in Congress, noting that since before 2017 moderates have left and been frequently replaced by more extreme figures. He points out that Republicans with traditional conservative views are under pressure, fearful of the consequences of speaking out against the current within-party political climate heavily influenced by Trump and his base.
It has been noted that the new voters brought in by Trump are not necessarily conservative in the traditional sense but lean towards populous nationalism, which may suggest an endorsement of Trump's authoritarian tendencies. Goldberg brings up that certain Republicans ostensibly in line with traditional conservatism have felt compelled to adapt their stances due to fears of losing primaries or facing threats to personal safety.
Trump's Loyal Base Overlooks or Endorses His Authoritarian Tendencies
Some Conservatives Downplay Trump's 2020 Election Actions or Political Attacks, Prioritizing His Policies
There is evidence that Trump’s base has a significant sway in the Republican Party, potentially resulting in politicians adjusting their behavior to avoid upsetting this powerful segment. Goldberg specifies that this includes an environment where failing loyalty tests – such as accepting Trump's claim that Ukraine started the war – could lead to political downfall. Harris and Goldberg discuss how the Republican Party has cultivated a situation where remaining silent is tantessentially seen as giving approval and consent to Trump's stance, no matter how demonstrably false.
Trump's Loyalists Erode Republican Checks and Balances
Goldberg draws an analogy between the current temperament within the Republican Party under Trump's influence and the fear associated with being the first person to stop clapping for Stalin, illustrating the intense pressure to conform. This pressure has grown to a point where questioning Trump is, for many within the party, akin to disloyalty.
Harris comments on persona ...
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The Transformation of the Republican Party Under Trump
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Counterarguments
- The perception of extremism may be subjective, and what some view as extreme, others might see as a necessary shift to address current issues.
- Some argue that the Republican Party's alignment with Trump's views reflects the will of the voters who elected them, rather than fear of backlash.
- The term "populist nationalism" can be interpreted in various ways, and some may argue it represents a legitimate political stance that emphasizes national sovereignty and the interests of ordinary people.
- Loyalty to a party leader is not unique to the Republican Party under Trump and can be seen across the political spectrum as a strategic move to maintain party unity.
- Silence on certain issues may be a strategic choice by politicians who prioritize other policy goals or believe in picking their battles.
- The concept of loyalty can also be seen as a commitment to shared goals and values, rather than blind obedience.
- Checks and balances exist not only within parties but also within the broader structure of the U.S. government, including the judiciary and legisl ...
Actionables
- You can foster critical thinking by regularly engaging with people who hold different political views. Start a book club or discussion group that focuses on bipartisan readings or podcasts, ensuring that the material covers a range of political perspectives. This will help you understand the importance of diverse opinions and the dangers of echo chambers.
- Encourage accountability in politics by writing to your local representatives about the value of truth and democratic norms. Use specific examples from local or national politics where you felt representatives showed integrity or, conversely, where you felt they could have stood firmer on democratic principles. This personal action reinforces the importance of checks and balances in g ...
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Trump's Foreign Policy Implications For America's Global Standing
"America First" Policy Strained U.S. Alliances
Trump Sees International Relations as Transactions, Belittling Allies and Cozying Up To Adversaries Like Russia's Putin
Goldberg suggests that Trump's approach to alliances, particularly related to NATO and the EU, demonstrates his view of international relations as transactional and zero-sum. Goldberg finds Trump's belief that the EU was created to disadvantage the U.S. as "ahistorical." Describing NATO as akin to a protection racket, Goldberg views Trump’s actions as belittling allies, causing them to pay more while showing deference to adversaries like Putin.
Trump's Actions Erode Global Trust in Post-WWII Order Principles
Goldberg criticizes Trump's tendency to be inconsistent with terms like "dictator," depending on the transactional nature of relationships. He also points out how the U.S.’s foreign policy shift to intimidate friends and befriend foes undercuts the trusting cooperation across institutions necessary for global leadership. He highlights that America's betrayal of commitments under Trump's leadership has eroded trust in the international principles established after World War II.
Trump's Ukraine Crisis Decisions Driven by Personal, Political Interests Over Strategic Vision
Trump's Demands for Ukraine Concessions, Like Mineral Rights and War Profits, Damage America's Reputation
Goldberg scrutinizes Trump's rationalizations during the Ukraine crisis, suggesting that Trump's actions were driven by personal and political gains rather than strategic considerations. He brings up an alleged "mineral deal with Ukraine," implying demands for c ...
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Trump's Foreign Policy Implications For America's Global Standing
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Counterarguments
- "America First" may have been intended to prioritize American economic and security interests, which some argue had been neglected in previous administrations.
- Transactional relationships in international politics are not unique to Trump's administration and can be seen as a pragmatic approach to foreign policy.
- The increased financial contributions from NATO allies could be viewed as a more equitable sharing of defense costs.
- Engaging with adversaries like Russia could be part of a strategy to de-escalate tensions and find common ground on certain issues.
- The emphasis on national sovereignty and criticism of supranational entities like the EU resonates with a segment of the American population concerned about loss of control over domestic affairs.
- Some argue that previous administrations also had inconsistencies in foreign po ...
Actionables
- You can foster better personal relationships by consistently treating interactions as collaborative rather than transactional. Instead of approaching every situation with a "what's in it for me?" mindset, try to find mutual benefits and shared successes. For example, when negotiating tasks with family members, focus on how the outcome will benefit the household, not just your personal agenda.
- Enhance your reputation for reliability by making small, consistent commitments and following through on them. This could be as simple as always being on time for social engagements or keeping promises to help friends with tasks. Your consistent actions will demonstrate a commitment to principles over personal gain, much like nations strive to do on the global stage.
- Improve your critical thinking by questioning the motives behind information sources, ...
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Influence of Extremist Figures on Republican Politics
Rising Prominence of Authoritarian Figures Like Curtis Yarvin Is Concerning
Jonah Goldberg brings up Curtis Yarvin, a figure advocating for monarchy, and he worries about Yarvin’s growing influence on influential tech and Republican figures. However, Goldberg finds Yarvin's arguments lacking in substance.
Yarvin's Arguments Seem Incoherent but Gaining Tech and Republican Figures' Ear Is Troubling
While Goldberg does not take Yarvin's rhetoric seriously, he expresses concern that tech personalities like Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen are influenced by him. He hints that these tech figures, who have played roles in facilitating "Trump 2.0," offer a troubling indication that some in tech and Republican circles are willing to embrace Yarvin's ideas.
Thiel's Embrace of Yarvin's Ideas and Role in Elevating Vance Suggests Willingness to Abandon Democratic Norms For Power
The influence of Yarvin over tech figures such as Peter Thiel is worrisome for Goldberg, who sees Thiel's embrace of Yarvin’s ideas—and his role in elevating figures like JD Vance—as a suggestion that there is a willingness among some to abandon democratic norms for power. Vance's policy positions are seen as tailored to benefit certain interests, particularly in tech, sometimes diverging from broader free market principles.
Corruption and Self-Dealing in the Trump Administration Erode Trust In Institutions
Goldberg and Harris discuss the Trump administration's economic philosophy and tactics, specifically tariffs, and raise concerns about possible political corruption and self-dealing.
Tr ...
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Influence of Extremist Figures on Republican Politics
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Counterarguments
- Curtis Yarvin's arguments may be more coherent and substantive than perceived, and could offer a critique of current democratic systems that some find valuable.
- The influence of thinkers like Yarvin on tech and Republican figures could be a sign of intellectual diversity and a willingness to explore alternative governance models.
- Tech leaders like Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen may engage with a variety of thinkers, including Yarvin, without necessarily endorsing all their ideas.
- The support of JD Vance by figures like Peter Thiel could be based on a shared vision for innovation and progress rather than a rejection of democratic norms.
- JD Vance's policy positions might reflect a nuanced approach to economic and social issues that align with the interests of his constituents rather than a divergence from fre ...
Actionables
- You can develop critical thinking by analyzing the arguments and influences of public figures you follow, noting down their key points, and cross-referencing them with credible sources to assess their validity. For example, if a tech entrepreneur you admire endorses a particular political idea, research its origins, implications, and counterarguments to form a well-rounded view.
- Enhance your media literacy by creating a "bias map" of the news outlets and thought leaders you regularly consume content from, marking out perceived biases and potential conflicts of interest. This could involve tracking the financial or political affiliations of these sources and considering how these might affect the content they produce.
- Foster ethical decision-making ...
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