#393 — Is History Repeating Itself?
In this episode of Making Sense with Sam Harris, historian Simon Sebag Montefiore shares his expertise on Russian and Middle Eastern history. He highlights the immense religious significance of Jerusalem's Temple Mount and how differing theological narratives surrounding this sacred site contribute to geopolitical volatility.
Montefiore examines the rise of religious fundamentalism as a powerful force shaping global politics, contrasting with expectations of secularization. He suggests the world is shifting away from the post-WWII era of relative stability and liberal democratic ascendance, entering a new pattern of multipolarity amidst a crisis within democracies. The discussion explores how the modern digital landscape propagates religious fervor that holds sway over secular commitments.
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1-Page Summary
Montefiore's Historical Expertise
Simon Sebag Montefiore, a renowned historian focused on Russian and Middle Eastern history, has gained extensive knowledge through his academic studies at Cambridge and access to archives like Stalin's. Montefiore's firsthand experiences during pivotal historical moments and scholarly investigations have positioned him as an authoritative voice on past events and their modern geopolitical implications.
The Temple Mount and Jerusalem
Montefiore highlights the immense religious significance of Jerusalem's Temple Mount to Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. Constructed by Herod the Great, this site has witnessed numerous conflicts throughout history. Its perceived sacredness by adherents creates the potential for catastrophic religious conflict, as the Temple Mount is considered inviolable.
Shifting Global Order
Montefiore suggests a return to historical patterns of multipolarity, departing from the post-WWII era of relative stability and liberal democratic ascendance. He points to a crisis within democracies tied to a loss of social cohesion. While liberal democracy's success could be seen as exceptional, Montefiore ponders whether its appeal extends beyond economic and military achievements.
Religious Influence on Geopolitics
Montefiore and Sam Harris discuss how the theological narratives surrounding Jerusalem's Temple Mount contribute to geopolitical volatility. They note the resurgence of religious fervor and fundamentalism as a powerful force shaping global politics, contrary to expectations of secularization. Religious believers' passionate convictions give them significant influence, contrasting with more diffuse secular commitments.
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Clarifications
- Simon Sebag Montefiore's access to archives like Stalin's is a reference to his ability to delve into historical documents and materials related to Joseph Stalin, the former leader of the Soviet Union. This access has allowed Montefiore to conduct in-depth research and gain insights into Stalin's regime and its impact on history. Montefiore's exploration of these archives has contributed to his expertise in Russian history and his ability to provide nuanced perspectives on significant historical events and figures.
- Multipolarity in the context of global order refers to a distribution of power among multiple major actors or centers of influence, leading to a more balanced and competitive international system. This contrasts with unipolarity (dominance by a single power) or bipolarity (dominance by two major powers). In a multipolar world, various countries or blocs have significant influence, shaping diplomatic, economic, and security dynamics. The concept suggests a shift away from a single dominant power structure, potentially leading to more complex interactions and alliances among nations.
- The phrase "crisis within democracies tied to a loss of social cohesion" suggests that there are challenges within democratic societies related to a weakening sense of unity and connection among their members. This lack of social cohesion can lead to divisions, polarization, and difficulties in finding common ground on important issues, potentially undermining the functioning and stability of democratic systems. It points to a growing concern that fractures in societal bonds and shared values can strain the fabric of democracy, impacting governance, social harmony, and the ability to address collective challenges effectively.
- Liberal democracy's appeal extends beyond economic and military achievements due to its emphasis on individual rights, freedoms, and rule of law. It provides a framework for political participation, protection of minority rights, and peaceful resolution of conflicts. The values of tolerance, pluralism, and accountability are fundamental to its attractiveness. Liberal democracy offers a system where diverse voices can be heard, societal progress can be achieved, and human dignity can be upheld.
- The theological narratives surrounding the Temple Mount encompass the religious beliefs, stories, and historical significance attributed to this site by Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. These narratives often focus on events like the construction of the Temple, biblical accounts, and prophetic significance, shaping the spiritual and cultural connections each faith community has with the location. The Temple Mount's importance lies in its role as a sacred space where divine interactions, religious rituals, and eschatological expectations converge, influencing beliefs about the past, present, and future. These narratives can fuel deep emotional attachments, theological debates, and geopolitical tensions among followers of these faiths, reflecting the complex interplay between religion, history, and politics in the region.
- Secularization in global politics refers to the idea that as societies modernize, religion will become less influential in shaping political decisions and public life. This concept suggests a shift towards a more secular, non-religious approach to governance and international relations. However, recent trends show a resurgence of religious influence in geopolitics, challenging the traditional expectation of a decline in religious impact on global affairs. This phenomenon highlights the complex interplay between religion, politics, and society in the contemporary world.
Counterarguments
- While Montefiore is a respected historian, his interpretations and conclusions are not universally accepted; other historians may have different perspectives on Russian and Middle Eastern history.
- Access to archives like Stalin's is invaluable, but it is important to consider the potential biases in these sources and the limitations they may present in understanding the full historical context.
- The authority of a historian can be questioned, as it is based on their interpretation of evidence, which can be subjective and influenced by personal or cultural biases.
- The significance of the Temple Mount is indeed immense, but the narrative can be expanded to include the perspectives of other groups and stakeholders in the region, not just the three Abrahamic religions.
- The history of the Temple Mount is complex, and while it has been a site of conflict, it has also been a place of coexistence and shared sacredness at various points in history.
- The potential for catastrophic religious conflict over the Temple Mount is a valid concern, but there are also ongoing efforts for peace and negotiation that should be acknowledged.
- The idea of a return to multipolarity is one interpretation of global trends, but others might argue for the continued dominance of certain powers or the emergence of new forms of international cooperation.
- The crisis within democracies may be tied to a loss of social cohesion, but it could also be attributed to other factors such as economic inequality, political polarization, or external interference.
- The appeal of liberal democracy might be challenged, but it is also possible to argue that its core values of freedom, human rights, and rule of law continue to have universal appeal, even if the systems themselves need reform.
- The influence of religious fervor on geopolitics is significant, but secular movements and ideologies also play a critical role in shaping global politics, and the interplay between secular and religious forces can be complex.
- While religious believers may have passionate convictions, it is also true that secular individuals and groups can be equally committed to their causes, and the impact of secularism on society should not be underestimated.
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Montefiore's background and historical expertise
Simon Sebag Montefiore is a widely recognized expert in historical scholarship, particularly in Russian and Middle Eastern history. His academic journey and varied experiences have equipped him with unique insights into the historical context that shapes current geopolitical events.
Montefiore studied history at Cambridge University, laying the groundwork for his future research endeavors. Despite a brief foray into the world of banking, his passion for history soon steered him towards more academic pursuits.
Montefiore's scholarly focus on Russian history
Montefiore's early academic interests centered around Russian historical figures and the evolving landscape of the empire. His time at university marked the beginning of this specialization. Gaining first-hand experience during a transformative period in Russian history, Montefiore traveled to the Soviet Union as it disintegrated in the early 1990s, observing the collapse of an empire.
His research and writing on historical figures such as Catherine the Great and Potemkin – known for their roles in the Enlightenment and as empire-builders who extended Russian dominion into South Ukraine and Crimea – paved the way for his future investigative works.
Access to Stalin's archives
Montefiore's in-depth study of Russian history and his exploration of pivotal historical figures eventually led him to gain unique access to Stalin's archives. At the time, he was one of the first researchers to work extensively with these materials, which offered unprecedented insight into the Soviet era under one of its most infamous leade ...
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Montefiore's background and historical expertise
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Counterarguments
- While Montefiore is recognized for his expertise, some may argue that his background in banking and lack of a formal PhD in history could be seen as limitations in comparison to academics who have followed a more traditional scholarly path.
- The focus on prominent figures like Catherine the Great and Potemkin might be criticized for perpetuating a 'great man' approach to history, potentially overshadowing the contributions of lesser-known individuals or broader social and economic forces.
- Gaining access to Stalin's archives is a significant achievement, but some may question whether this access has led to a particular interpretation of history that may not fully account for other perspectives or sources that are less accessible.
- Montefiore's firsthand experiences in the Soviet Union are valuable, but critics might argue that personal observations can introduce subjective biases that may affect the objectivity of his historical analysis.
- Being an authoritative voice in history often ...
Actionables
- Dive into a historical figure's impact by creating a timeline of their major decisions and their effects on today's world. Start with someone like Catherine the Great, and use online resources to trace key policies or actions she took. Then, research and note down how these decisions have shaped modern political boundaries or cultural practices, helping you understand the historical significance through a contemporary lens.
- Enhance your understanding of historical events by writing a short story from the perspective of someone living through them. For example, imagine being a citizen during the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Research the events of that era, then craft a narrative that weaves factual events with the fictional experiences of your character, giving you a more personal connection to the history.
- Build a deeper appreciation for h ...
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The historical significance and modern implications of Jerusalem and the Temple Mount
The Temple Mount, a site of profound historical and religious significance in Jerusalem, continues to captivate and influence the geopolitical climate due to its sacred importance to Judaism, Christianity, and Islam.
The Temple Mount is the most intensely revered piece of land, with profound religious meaning and significance for the three Abrahamic faiths - Judaism, Christianity, and Islam.
Constructed by Herod the Great, the Temple Mount or Mount Moriah in Jerusalem is intensely revered by the three monotheistic religions. This platform has been central to city's importance and remains unchanged since Herod was made King of Judea in 40 BC. Throughout history, the site has witnessed significant destructions, notably by Nebuchadnezzar in 586 BCE and Titus in 70 CE, both of which led to catastrophic events and mass exiles. Despite these calamities, or perhaps because of them, the ruins have taken on a sacred quality, becoming more hallowed than the original edifices.
Simon Sebag Montefiore speaks to Jerusalem's enduring significance, highlighting how after the Judeans, whose narrative established the city's holiness, wrote about it, other cultures and religions were able to understand its importance. Exemplifying this are the early Muslims who, following the teachings of Muhammad, built an early mosque on the Temple Mount and the iconic Dome of the Rock on the perceived site of the previous Jewish temple. The stakes of this historical background are clear, considering that Sam Harris warns that any destruction of the Temple Mount's Al-Aqsa Mosque could escalate into a global conflict due to the site's extensive religious investment.
The platform that makes up the Temple Mount was constructed by Herod the Great, and the site has been the focal point of numerous destructive conflicts and conquests throughout history.
Herod the Great's era saw the construction of the Temple Mount platform, upon which the Judeans had built a temple. This edifice, completed across most of Herod’s reign, represented a dynasty that would last five generations under Roman overlordship. This period marked Jerusalem's history when the Judean kingdoms flourished in times of regional turmoil but succumbed to conquering empires as they reasserted control.
The convergence of millennial beliefs and expectations focused on the Temple Mount creates the potential for catastrophic religious conflict, as the site is considered non-negotiable and inviolable by adherents of these faiths.
The enduring legacy of the Temple Mount as an inviolable and non-negotiable site continues to act as a potential catalyst for large-scale conflict. Religious beliefs centered aro ...
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The historical significance and modern implications of Jerusalem and the Temple Mount
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Counterarguments
- The Temple Mount's significance is not universally agreed upon; different groups within the Abrahamic faiths may have varying degrees of reverence for the site.
- The potential for catastrophic religious conflict is not inevitable; it is possible for the site to be managed in a way that respects the beliefs of all faiths through diplomacy and interfaith dialogue.
- The idea that the Temple Mount is non-negotiable and inviolable may not take into account the complex legal and political arrangements that currently exist, such as the status quo agreement that governs the site.
- The notion that the Temple Mount is a geopolitical powder keg could be seen as an oversimplification of the broader geopolitical dynamics in the region, which involve many factors beyond religious sentiment.
- The historical narrative of destruction and rebuilding on the Temple Mount may not fully acknowledge the periods of peaceful coexistence and mutual respect among different religious communities.
- The view that the Temple Mount is central to Jerusalem's importance might be challenged by those who emphasize other aspects of the city's history, culture, ...
Actionables
- You can deepen your understanding of the Temple Mount's significance by reading texts from each of the three Abrahamic religions. Start with accessible materials like religious summaries or historical overviews to gain insight into why this site is so revered. For example, you might read a chapter from the Quran, the Bible, and the Talmud, focusing on passages that mention the Temple Mount, to appreciate its multifaceted religious importance.
- Explore virtual reality experiences that simulate visiting the Temple Mount to gain a personal sense of its atmosphere without contributing to physical tensions on the ground. Look for VR tours or interactive documentaries that offer a 360-degree view and historical context, allowing you to "visit" the site from your home and understand its physical and emotional impact. ...
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The Shifting Global Order and the Potential Unraveling of the Post-WWII Liberal World Order
Sam Harris and Simon Sebag Montefiore discuss the signs of unraveling in the liberal world order established post-World War II, speculating on whether a period of chaos is imminent or a return to stability favoring liberal democracy is possible.
The Period of Relative Stability and Liberal Democratic Ascendance
Montefiore illustrates that the era from 1945 until significant events such as 9/11 or the Russian invasion of Ukraine was marked by exceptional stability. U.S. presidents during this time shared an internationalist perspective, and while Soviet leaders had visions of a world revolution, they acted conservatively. There was a broad respect for the United Nations and international law, and liberal democracies internally saw societal reforms that are now being challenged.
The Return to Historical Patterns of Multipolarity
Montefiore suggests that we are returning to historic norms with a multitude of powers instead of one dominant force. This shift is a departure from the '70-year peace,' which was previously a two-player chess game during the Cold War, followed by a quarter-century of American dominance, and now a complex game with various smaller powers pursuing individual interests.
The Exceptionality of Liberal Democracy’s Success
The post-WWII success of liberal democracy can be considered exceptional, given the prevalence of dictatorships across Europe until 1991 and even in Western Europe until the mid-1970s. Montefiore recognizes America as the greatest military and economic power ever, but he identifies a crisis within democracies tied to the loss of asabiyyah or social cohesion.
Crisis within Democracies and America's Influence
Montefiore compares the current societal malaise to Ibn Khaldun's concept of psychological defeat and a loss of asabiyyah, along with Fukuyama's take on an overqualified, entitled population undermining democratic confidence.
Harris ponders ...
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The Shifting Global Order and the Potential Unraveling of the Post-WWII Liberal World Order
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Clarifications
- Asabiyyah is a concept of social cohesion and unity within a group, emphasizing shared purpose and solidarity. It was popularized by Ibn Khaldun, who described it as a fundamental bond in human societies, strongest in the early stages of civilization. Asabiyyah is seen as a cyclical force that influences the rise and fall of civilizations based on the strength of social cohesion within the community.
- Ibn Khaldun was an Arab scholar known for his contributions to sociology, philosophy, and historiography during the Middle Ages. His work, particularly the Muqaddimah, influenced various scholars and thinkers across different eras and regions. Ibn Khaldun's ideas on societal cohesion, historical cycles, and the rise and fall of civilizations are still studied and respected today. His impact extends to both Western and Islamic intellectual traditions.
- Fukuyama's concept, as mentioned in the text, likely alludes to Francis Fukuyama's idea of the "end of history," which he proposed in his 1989 essay. This theory suggests that liberal democracy represents the endpoint of societal evolution and the ultimate form of government, marking the culmination of humanity's ideological development. Fukuyama argued that with the end of the Cold War and the apparent victory of liberal democracy over communism, there would be no more significant ideological conflicts, leading to a universalization of Western liberal democracy.
- Multipolarity in international relations describes a world order where power is distributed among multiple major actors or states, rather than being dominated by a single superpower. This concept suggests a shift away from a unipolar or bipolar system towards a more complex structure with several significant players influencing global affairs. It implies a balance of power among various nations, each with their own interests and capabilities, leading to a more decentralized and diverse geopolitical landscape. This shift can impact diplomacy, alliances, and conflicts as different powers compete and cooperate in a multipolar environment.
- The reference to 9/11 in the text alludes to the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001, in the United States. These attacks were carried out by the terrorist group al-Qaeda, ...
Counterarguments
- The post-WWII era was not uniformly stable; there were numerous conflicts and proxy wars, especially in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
- Multipolarity may not necessarily lead to instability; it could also foster a balance of power and cooperation among states.
- The success of liberal democracy may not be as exceptional as suggested, considering various cultural and regional variations in governance that have also been successful.
- The crisis within democracies may be part of a natural cycle of political evolution rather than a sign of permanent decline.
- America's influence, while perhaps declining in some areas, remains significant in others such as technology, culture, and military capabilities.
- The future trajectory of liberal democracy might not be as bleak, considering the adaptability and resilience of democratic institutions.
- The appeal of liberal democracies could be attributed to the value placed on individual right ...
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The influence of religion, religious fanaticism, and millenarian beliefs on contemporary geopolitics
The role of religion in geopolitical events is profound. Montefiore and Harris discuss the religious fervor surrounding Jerusalem’s Temple Mount and its implications for global politics.
The centrality of Jerusalem and the Temple Mount to the theological narratives and apocalyptic expectations of the three Abrahamic faiths creates a volatile situation with the potential for catastrophic conflict.
Montefiore mentions the happenstance of Jerusalem becoming a holy city, noting that there's no strategic geographical reason for its sanctity. Its importance emerged after a temple was built there and the Bible recorded its significance, informing other cultures and religions. The Jewish revolt in 76 AD was fueled by profound religious fervor. This suggests that Jerusalem's significance in the theological narratives of Judaism and Christianity adds an intrinsically volatile element to its history.
The deep-rooted religious significance of specific sites and symbols, combined with the belief in divinely ordained destinies, makes compromises and practical solutions extremely difficult to achieve.
Montefiore recounts the history of Jerusalem, such as the Jewish revolt, highlighting the complex relationship between religion and politics and the challenges in reaching compromises due to the city's profound religious implications. When Muslims took control of Jerusalem, they built a mosque on the Temple Mount, which had been left empty by Christians, indicating a period when religious rules were still forming and practices were more fluid. These shifting religious claims contribute to the difficulty of finding lasting solutions.
The resurgence of religious fervor and fundamentalism, in contrast with the expectations of secularization, has emerged as a powerful force shaping contemporary global politics.
Contrary to predictions of widespread secularization coinciding with the spread of liberal democracy, religious beliefs continue to exert a strong influence over global politics. Religious individuals demonstrate a fervor and focus that secula ...
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The influence of religion, religious fanaticism, and millenarian beliefs on contemporary geopolitics
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Clarifications
- Millenarian beliefs involve the belief in a significant societal transformation that will bring about profound changes. These beliefs can be religious or secular and often revolve around the idea of a major event leading to a new era. Millenarian movements anticipate radical shifts in society following a cataclysmic event or transformative period. The term "millenarianism" is rooted in the concept of a thousand-year period, symbolizing a time of dramatic change and renewal.
- Simon Sebag Montefiore is a British historian and author known for his works on Russia and Jerusalem. He has written extensively on historical and religious topics, providing insights into the complex relationships between religion, politics, and history.
Samuel Harris, commonly known as Sam Harris, is an American author, philosopher, and neuroscientist. He often explores topics related to religion, morality, and the intersection of science and philosophy in his works. Harris is known for his critical perspectives on organized religion and the impact of religious beliefs on society.
- The Jewish revolt in 76 AD, also known as the First Jewish–Roman War, was a major uprising of the Jewish people against the Roman Empire. It began in the year 66 AD and lasted until 73 AD, culminating in the destruction of the Second Temple in Jerusalem by the Romans. The revolt was a significant event in Jewish history, leading to widespread destruction and shaping the future of the region. The aftermath of the revolt had lasting consequences for the Jewish population and their relationship with the Roman authorities.
- The theological narratives of Judaism and Christianity encompass the foundational beliefs, stories, and teachings that define these two major Abrahamic religions. In Judaism, these narratives include the covenant between God and the Jewish people, the Exodus from Egypt, and the importance of Jerusalem as a sacred city. In Christianity, the narratives focus on the life, teachings, death, and resurrection of Jesus Christ, as well as the significance of Jerusalem in Christian history and prophecy. These narratives shape the religious identities, practices, and worldviews of followers of Judaism and Christianity, influencing their perspectives on history, morality, and the divine plan.
- The relationship between religion and politics is intricate due to the intertwining of belief systems with governance structures, often leading to conflicts and power struggles. Religious beliefs can shape political ideologies and policies, influencing decision-making at local and global levels. The historical significance of religious sites can amplify tensions and hinder diplomatic resolutions. Understanding this dynamic is crucial for comprehending the complexities of geopolitical events influenced by religious factors.
- The historical context of Muslims building a mosque on the Temple Mount is rooted in the Islamic tradition that considers Jerusalem a sacred site. After the Muslim conquest of Jerusalem in the 7th century, the Umayyad Caliph Abd al-Malik commissioned the construction of the Dome of the Rock on the Temple Mount. This iconic structure, completed in 691 AD, is one of the earlies ...
Counterarguments
- The role of economic, political, and social factors in geopolitical conflicts can be as significant as, or even more significant than, religious motivations, suggesting that the centrality of religion might be overstated.
- The history of Jerusalem shows periods of peaceful coexistence and shared sacred spaces among different faiths, indicating that religious diversity does not inevitably lead to conflict.
- Secularization in various parts of the world has led to a decrease in the influence of religious institutions on state affairs, challenging the idea that religious fervor is a universally resurgent force in global politics.
- The commitments of secular populations may not be as diffuse and uncertain as suggested; secular ideologies and movements can also demonstrate strong focus and influence, such as human rights campaigns and environmental activism.
- Interfaith dialogue and cooperation have made progress in reducing tensions and fostering understanding, suggesting that practical solutions to ...
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1-Page Summary- Montefiore's background and historical expertise
- The historical significance and modern implications of Jerusalem and the Temple Mount
- The Shifting Global Order and the Potential Unraveling of the Post-WWII Liberal World Order
- The influence of religion, religious fanaticism, and millenarian beliefs on contemporary geopolitics
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