Podcasts > Hidden Brain > When To Pivot

When To Pivot

By Hidden Brain Media

In this Hidden Brain episode, Rita McGrath examines how companies like Gillette and Kodak failed to adapt to market inflection points, missing opportunities that allowed newcomers like Dollar Shave Club to disrupt the industry. Using these examples, she illustrates the importance of recognizing and responding to shifts in customer preferences to avoid being overtaken by innovative competitors.

McGrath also explains the typical lifecycle of inflection points — initial hype, a trough of disillusionment, and eventual maturity — and identifies telltale signs that a company is missing an inflection point, like employees no longer using their products or mistimed responses. The episode offers insights into avoiding pitfalls that prevent embracing disruptions at the opportune moment.

Listen to the original

When To Pivot

This is a preview of the Shortform summary of the Mar 10, 2025 episode of the Hidden Brain

Sign up for Shortform to access the whole episode summary along with additional materials like counterarguments and context.

When To Pivot

1-Page Summary

Companies and Inflection Points

Gillette and Kodak failed to adapt to market changes, leading to missed opportunities and disruption by newcomers.

Gillette vs. Dollar Shave Club

According to Rita McGrath, Gillette initially ignored the threat of Dollar Shave Club's subscription service, continuing instead to invest in advanced products and marketing. Their reluctance to recognize shifts in customer preferences and distribution models allowed Dollar Shave Club to disrupt the razor market.

Kodak's Digital Downfall

McGrath points out that Kodak was slow to respond to digital photography, despite inventing the core technology. Antonio Perez directed Kodak's efforts toward printing, further highlighting the company's inability to adapt as digital imaging became the new standard.

Inflection Point Life Cycle

McGrath explains that inflection points follow a hype cycle of initial excitement leading to inflated expectations. As unsolved issues emerge, a trough of disillusionment sets in. Mature inflection points then move into a growth stage where opportunities bloom before eventually normalizing into daily life.

Signs of Missing an Inflection Point

McGrath notes signs like employees not using their own products, signaling a disconnect from customer insights, as with Nokia's R&D team. She also discusses timing challenges - responding too early, like Blockbuster's premature digital streaming efforts, or too late, as Kodak demonstrated by failing to transition to digital photography.

1-Page Summary

Additional Materials

Counterarguments

  • Gillette may not have completely ignored the threat of Dollar Shave Club but rather underestimated it or had a different strategic focus.
  • Kodak's slow response to digital photography could be seen as a complex result of internal challenges, such as corporate inertia or the difficulty of cannibalizing their own film-based business model.
  • The focus on printing by Kodak under Antonio Perez might have been a strategic choice to capitalize on a profitable niche rather than a failure to adapt.
  • The inflection point life cycle might not apply uniformly across all industries or companies, as some may experience different patterns of adoption and growth.
  • Employees not using their own products could be due to a variety of reasons unrelated to a disconnect from customer insights, such as product-market fit for a different target audience.
  • Responding too early to market shifts, as in the case of Blockbuster, might also be seen as a pioneering move that set the stage for future industry standards, even if it was not immediately successful.

Actionables

  • You can conduct a personal "use-it-or-lose-it" audit to ensure you're in tune with the products or services you rely on. Take stock of all the tools, apps, and services you use regularly and critically assess whether they still serve your needs or if there's a disconnect. If you find you're not using something you once valued, dig into why that might be and consider whether it's a sign that your needs have changed or the product has fallen behind.
  • Create a "market shift journal" where you jot down observations of changes in consumer behavior or emerging trends in industries you're interested in. This could be as simple as noting how your friends are shifting from one social media platform to another or how a local business is adapting to new consumer demands. Review this journal monthly to spot patterns and consider how these shifts could impact your career, investments, or consumer choices.
  • Experiment with a "flex your adaptability muscle" challenge where you pick a new technology or trend and integrate it into your life for a month. This could be anything from using a new fintech app to manage your finances, trying out a subscription service for a product you typically buy in-store, or learning the basics of a trending skill like coding or digital marketing. Reflect on the experience to better understand the hype cycle and your own response to change.

Get access to the context and additional materials

So you can understand the full picture and form your own opinion.
Get access for free
When To Pivot

Companies and Inflection Points

A look into the business strategies of companies like Gillette reveals missed opportunities and the consequences of failing to adapt to market changes.

Gillette vs. Dollar Shave Club: Missing Subscription Model Opens Door to Disruption

Gillette has been a leading brand in the razor market, but a lack of adaptability opened the door to disruption by newcomers like Dollar Shave Club.

Gillette's Dominance and Challenges in the Razor Market

Gillette, founded in 1901, revolutionized shaving by eliminating the necessity of barbershops for a close shave. Their brand became synonymous with safety razors, helping Gillette maintain a dominant market position for decades. In 2005, Procter & Gamble acquired Gillette for $57 billion, cementing its status as a dominant force. However, customers often found the retail experience frustrating, with products secured in "razor fortresses" requiring store employees' assistance for access. By the 21st century, their market dominance had waned, but they still held a notable 50 percent market share.

Dollar Shave Club's Subscription Service: A Convenient, Cost-Effective Razor Delivery Alternative to Gillette

In 2010, entrepreneurs Mark Levine and Michael Dubin decided to capitalize on a surplus of razors Levine had in his warehouse. They recognized consumer dissatisfaction with the traditional retail experience provided by Gillette and sought to sell razors over the internet. Dollar Shave Club was born, introducing a new direction in marketing that was conversational and casual, directly addressing the inconveniences faced by younger consumers when purchasing Gillette razors. The club offered a subscription service that delivered razors directly to customers' doorsteps, negating the need to shop at physical stores.

Gillette Initially Ignored the Threat, Focusing On Product Improvements Rather Than Recognizing Shifts in Customer Preferences and Distribution Channels

Rita McGrath points out that Gillette's response to the rise of Dollar Shave Club was initially to ignore it. Gillette continued to invest in high-end R&D, releasing advanced products such as an advert featuring tennis champion Roger Federer to uphold their serious brand image. The market dominance that Gillette had enjoyed was diminishing in the face of ...

Here’s what you’ll find in our full summary

Registered users get access to the Full Podcast Summary and Additional Materials. It’s easy and free!
Start your free trial today

Companies and Inflection Points

Additional Materials

Counterarguments

  • Gillette eventually recognized the subscription model's potential and launched its own Gillette On Demand service, indicating a willingness to adapt, albeit later than ideal.
  • Gillette's focus on product improvements may have been based on a belief that quality and brand loyalty would retain customers, which is a valid strategy for some market segments.
  • The retail experience, while frustrating for some, may have been preferred by a segment of customers who value in-person shopping and immediate product access.
  • Kodak's initial reluctance to shift from film to digital could be seen as a strategic decision to protect its existing film business, which was profitable at the time.
  • Kodak did eventually enter the digital market ...

Actionables

  • You can conduct a personal audit of your habits to identify areas where you're resistant to change, much like Kodak was with digital photography. Start by listing daily routines and ask yourself when was the last time you changed each one. For example, if you've been using the same type of phone for years, research current models to see if a switch could increase your productivity or satisfaction.
  • Create a feedback loop with friends or family to improve your adaptability, similar to how Dollar Shave Club listened to customer dissatisfaction. Ask them to point out when they notice you're sticking to outdated methods or tools, whether it's in your personal life or at work. For instance, if you're still using paper maps instead of digital navigation, they could suggest trying out a navigation app.
  • Experiment with a subscription model i ...

Get access to the context and additional materials

So you can understand the full picture and form your own opinion.
Get access for free
When To Pivot

The Life Cycle and Stages of Inflection Points

Rita McGrath explores the concept of inflection points, shedding light on the stages they encompass, from initial excitement to eventual normalization.

Hype Cycle & Trough of Disillusionment: Initial Excitement, Followed by Disillusionment

McGrath explains that the beginning of an inflection point is often characterized by a hype cycle, marked by an initial spike in enthusiasm for new technology, leading to inflated expectations.

Hype Cycle Shows Initial Enthusiasm for New Technology, Leading To Unrealistic Expectations and Later Disappointment as Challenges Emerge

In particular, McGrath points to examples like autonomous cars, where the envisioned benefits kick-start the hype. However, as challenges and unsolved technical issues emerge, the initial excitement wanes, leading to a period of disillusionment.

Trough of Disillusionment

The trough of disillusionment marks a period where the once hyped potential of the technology has failed to materialize as quickly or as well as expected, causing disappointment.

Normalization of Inflection Point: Embracing Maturity Leads To Increased Adoption, Wider Applications, and Integration Into Daily Life

McGrath further discusses how after surviving the trough of disillusionment, inflection points move into a stage of revival and growth as they mature.

Opportunities Bloom: Unveiling Potential and New Applications At the Inflection Point

This stage after the trough is often where new opportunities and applications are discovered, as was the case with successful post-dotcom-c ...

Here’s what you’ll find in our full summary

Registered users get access to the Full Podcast Summary and Additional Materials. It’s easy and free!
Start your free trial today

The Life Cycle and Stages of Inflection Points

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • The Hype Cycle is a graphical representation of the life cycle stages of technology adoption, illustrating the peak of inflated expectations followed by the trough of disillusionment, where interest wanes due to challenges and unmet expectations. This cycle helps understand the typical trajectory of new technologies in the market.
  • Post-dotcom-crash internet companies like Amazon and eBay were businesses that emerged and thrived after the bursting of the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s. These companies were able to navigate the challenges of the dot-com crash and capitalize on the opportunities that arose in the aftermath. Amazon, founded in 1994, is a multinational technology company known for its e-commerce platform, while eBay, established in 1995, is a popular online marketplace connecting buyers and sellers globally. Both companies demonstrated resilience and adaptability in the face of the dot-com crash, ultimately achieving significant success in the digital landscape.
  • Gillet ...

Counterarguments

  • The hype cycle may not apply uniformly to all technologies or industries; some may not experience as pronounced a cycle of inflated expectations followed by disillusionment.
  • The concept of a "trough of disillusionment" might be overly simplistic, as it does not account for the complexity and variability in how different stakeholders perceive and react to technological advancements.
  • The idea that all inflection points lead to a stage of revival and growth assumes a linear progression, which may not reflect the reality of some technologies that fail to recover or evolve after the initial hype.
  • Citing Amazon and eBay as examples of companies that emerged successfully post-trough may not fully represent the diversity of outcomes for businesses navigating inflection points; survivorship bias could influence the perception of success.
  • The normalization of technology is not an inevitable outcome for all innovations; some may remain niche or become obsolete before reaching ...

Get access to the context and additional materials

So you can understand the full picture and form your own opinion.
Get access for free
When To Pivot

Signs a Company Misses an Inflection Point

Rita McGrath and Shankar Vedantam explore some critical signs indicating that a company may be missing an important inflection point, potentially leading to their downfall.

Employee Detachment From Products Signals Missed Customer Insights

Gillette R&D's Disconnect From Customers By Not Observing In-store Behavior

McGrath points out that a significant warning sign of a company missing an inflection point is when its employees do not use their own company's products. This detachment indicates that the business might be losing touch with customer insights and preferences. She highlights Nokia’s case where R&D personnel did not observe real customer behavior in phone stores, which resulted in a disconnect from customer experiences and insights, leading to strategic missteps.

Timing Challenges: Companies Risk Missed Opportunities or Wasted Investments

The timings of strategic decisions in relation to inflection points can make or break companies. McGrath mentions tracking early warning signals as a method to better understand when to shift strategy, indicating that timing is crucial. Vedantam adds to this discussion by referencing his personal experience in the newspaper industry, where he saw a shift away from print to digital content consumption, signaling an industry transformation.

Blockbuster Shows how Responding too Early to an Inflection Point Can Hinder a Company's Pivot To Digital Streaming Due to Technological and Ecosystem Limitations

The podcast illustrates Blockbuster's challenges in timing its pivot towards digital streaming. John Antiocho, the company’s CEO, planned to do away with late fees and introduce streaming, partnering with Enron to build the infrastructure. However, his initiatives were too early; the widespread adoption of high-speed broadband wasn't yet in place, and Netfl ...

Here’s what you’ll find in our full summary

Registered users get access to the Full Podcast Summary and Additional Materials. It’s easy and free!
Start your free trial today

Signs a Company Misses an Inflection Point

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Inflection points in business represent critical moments of change or transition where established patterns shift significantly, creating new opportunities or threats for companies. Recognizing and responding effectively to inflection points is crucial for businesses to adapt, innovate, and stay competitive in evolving markets. These points can be triggered by various factors such as technological advancements, changing consumer preferences, or shifts in industry dynamics. Failing to identify and navigate inflection points can lead to missed opportunities, strategic missteps, or even the downfall of a company.
  • Viacom's reluctance to invest in Blockbuster's digital streaming initiatives stemmed from concerns about potential impacts on profit margins. Viacom, as Blockbuster's parent company, hesitated to allocate the necessary funds due to uncertainties surrounding the profitability of the digital streaming venture. This hesitation ultimately led to a missed opportunity for Blockbuster to adapt to emerging technological trends in the entertainment industry.
  • Kodak's failure to adapt to the digital photography revolution stemmed from its reluctance to embrace digital technology despite be ...

Counterarguments

  • Employees not using company products might not necessarily indicate a disconnect from customer insights; it could be due to other factors such as company policy, product relevance, or personal preferences.
  • Nokia's failure may have involved more complex issues than just R&D's lack of customer observation, such as strategic decisions at the executive level or external market forces.
  • Timing strategic decisions is important, but it's also critical to consider the quality and execution of the strategy itself, not just its timing.
  • Early warning signals can be helpful, but they can also be misinterpreted or lead to premature actions if not analyzed correctly.
  • The shift from print to digital content consumption is a clear trend, but it doesn't account for niche markets or demographics that may still prefer print, suggesting a one-size-fits-all approach may not be appropriate.
  • Responding too early to an inflection point can be problematic, but it can also provide a first-mover advantage if the company is able to sustain itself until the market catches up.
  • Blockbuster's challenges in pivoting to digital streaming could be seen as a failure to innovate, but it could also be viewed as a rational decision ...

Get access to the context and additional materials

So you can understand the full picture and form your own opinion.
Get access for free

Create Summaries for anything on the web

Download the Shortform Chrome extension for your browser

Shortform Extension CTA