Podcasts > Deep State Radio > FTS - Disinformation and Its Discontents

FTS - Disinformation and Its Discontents

By Chris Cotnoir

Dive into the murky waters of cyber warfare with "Deep State Radio" as speakers Riley Fessler, Michael Weiss, and Thomas Rid dissect the complex realm of disinformation and its encroachment on modern democracies. The episode delves into the sophistication of Russian interference strategies, tracing the escalation from their brazen efforts in the 2016 US elections to the more covert maneuvers employed in 2020. The conversation navigates the historic tactics of Russian intelligence and examines the impact of societal fissures that provide fertile ground for misinformation to take root.

The trio discusses the intricate effects of disinformation on political discourse and the potential overestimation of its impact on election outcomes. They warn of the danger in either magnifying or dismissing the influence of misinformation campaigns and how such attitudes might play into the hands of adversaries. Moreover, the episode sheds light on the alarming trend of other state actors like Iran and Cuba taking cues from Russian strategies, intensifying global concerns about the escalating capability for information manipulation. "Deep State Radio" offers a critical analysis of the battles shaping the information landscape, the ripples they create, and the global implications they hold.

FTS - Disinformation and Its Discontents

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FTS - Disinformation and Its Discontents

1-Page Summary

Disinformation Tactics and Operations

The Silo's episode reveals the evolution of Russian interference in US elections, comparing 2016's direct approach to 2020's more clandestine operations. It points out that Russian tactics in 2020 were more sophisticated, encompassing a broader range of influence operations and making it harder for investigators to trace. Intelligence operatives successfully influenced Rudy Giuliani, using him to channel disinformation to US media like One America News Network. The importance of historical context is underscored, highlighting Russian intelligence's extensive experience in disinformation dating back to the KGB, with the caveat that the GRU's current operations remain largely obscured.

US Democracy Vulnerabilities and Fractures

Thomas Rid and Weiss emphasize that US societal polarization facilitates the traction of disinformation campaigns. Disinformation thrives by exploiting pre-existing frictions and conflicts. The polarization is exacerbated not just through operations but also via the conversations about disinformation itself. Right-wing media's focus on cultural issues parallels Russian media narratives about American society, deepening societal divides. These political and cultural environments are exploited to discredit attempts at exposing intelligence operations. The concern is also raised that preoccupation with editorial and cultural issues distracts from more critical political and economic discussions.

Disinformation Impacts and Effectiveness

The actual impact of disinformation campaigns on political outcomes and public perception is shrouded in ambiguity. Rid and Weiss argue that metrics like clicks and likes are not definitive indicators of impact and that overstatements concerning the effectiveness of disinformation can lead to a loss of credibility. The exaggeration of Russian influence efforts or the dismissal of their impact could result in the public underestimating real threats. The focus on disinformation can inadvertently benefit adversaries by reinforcing existing societal divisions and causing misunderstandings about real corruption and adversarial actions.

Emerging Threats and Concerns

The detailed examination of Russian disinformation tactics has inadvertently motivated other state adversaries, such as Iran, Cuba, and Hezbollah, to enhance their disinformation campaigns. These entities are learning from Russia's methods and applying similar strategies, raising concerns about an escalation in global information manipulation efforts. As these nations and groups become more invested in these operations, there is an increased risk of complex disinformation campaigns influencing world events.

1-Page Summary

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • The GRU, or Main Intelligence Directorate, is Russia's military intelligence agency. Its current operations being largely obscured means that much of what the GRU is currently involved in is not easily visible or understood by outside observers. This lack of transparency makes it challenging for investigators and analysts to fully grasp the extent and nature of the GRU's activities in the realm of disinformation and influence operations. The GRU's secretive nature and sophisticated tactics contribute to the difficulty in uncovering and attributing specific actions to this intelligence agency.
  • The impact of disinformation campaigns is often unclear due to the complexity of measuring their effects on political outcomes and public perception. Metrics like clicks and likes do not provide a complete picture of the influence of disinformation. Overstating or understating the effectiveness of disinformation can lead to misunderstandings and potentially undermine efforts to address real threats. Assessing the true impact of disinformation requires a nuanced understanding of its reach and influence beyond surface-level engagement metrics.
  • Metrics like clicks and likes are not definitive indicators of impact in the context of disinformation campaigns because they do not necessarily reflect the true influence or effectiveness of the information being spread. While high numbers of clicks or likes may suggest engagement, they do not measure the actual impact on public opinion or behavior. Disinformation campaigns can have more subtle and long-term effects that are not captured by simple engagement metrics like clicks and likes. It's essential to look beyond surface-level metrics to understand the true consequences and implications of disinformation efforts.
  • Concerns about an escalation in global information manipulation efforts stem from the increasing adoption of sophisticated disinformation tactics by various state adversaries like Iran, Cuba, and Hezbollah, following Russia's lead. This trend raises worries about a rise in coordinated and complex disinformation campaigns worldwide. The replication of Russian strategies by other nations and groups heightens the risk of widespread manipulation of information to influence international events. The evolving landscape of disinformation poses challenges to countering these efforts effectively and protecting the integrity of information ecosystems globally.

Counterarguments

  • While Russian interference tactics may have evolved, it's possible that the effectiveness of these tactics is still limited by the resilience of US institutions and the awareness of the electorate.
  • The claim that intelligence operatives influenced Rudy Giuliani could be challenged by emphasizing the need for concrete evidence to support such assertions.
  • The historical context of Russian disinformation might overlook the fact that many countries, including the US, have engaged in similar tactics throughout history.
  • The argument that societal polarization in the US facilitates disinformation could be countered by pointing out that a healthy democracy can handle a wide range of opinions and debates without succumbing to foreign influence.
  • The idea that right-wing media's focus on cultural issues parallels Russian narratives could be seen as an oversimplification, as domestic issues are complex and not necessarily driven by foreign influence.
  • The assertion that preoccupation with editorial and cultural issues distracts from more critical discussions could be countered by arguing that cultural issues are deeply intertwined with political and economic realities.
  • The ambiguity of the impact of disinformation campaigns might be challenged by studies that aim to quantify the influence of such campaigns on voter behavior.
  • The concern that overstatements about the effectiveness of disinformation can lead to a loss of credibility might be balanced by the argument that raising awareness is crucial, even if it risks some degree of exaggeration.
  • The suggestion that other state adversaries are enhancing their disinformation campaigns due to Russian tactics could be countered by the idea that these adversaries have their own historical and strategic reasons for engaging in disinformation, independent of Russian influence.
  • The escalation of global information manipulation efforts might be seen as a natural progression of the digital age, where all actors, state and non-state, are learning and adapting to new forms of communication and influence.

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FTS - Disinformation and Its Discontents

Disinformation Tactics and Operations

The Silo's episode provides a retrospective on Russian interference in the 2016 and 2020 US elections, reflecting on the evolving landscape of disinformation and the increasingly sophisticated means by which it’s carried out.

Evolving tradecraft from 2016 to 2020

Guests on the show scrutinize the progression of Russian disinformation efforts, comparing the widely publicized activities of 2016 with the more clandestine operations of 2020.

Wider range of influence operations in 2020

The US intelligence community's report suggests that Russian methods and tactics in the 2020 election cycle were more sophisticated and likely encompassed a wider range of influence operations than in 2016. According to Thomas Rid, while the 2016 campaign offered plenty of public evidence from private sector digital forensics, the 2020 tradecraft was more disciplined and harder to trace due to the professionalization of efforts, fewer mistakes, and evasion of investigative oversight.

Exploitation of Rudy Giuliani

Attention is given to how individuals within US circles were exploited. Russian intelligence operatives, particularly Andrey Derkach and Konstantin Kalimnik, influenced Rudy Giuliani. Giuliani, acting as the President's personal attorney and an opposition research figure, was manipulated by Russian operations. His meetings in Ukraine are highlighted as strategic choices for operational security to avoid domestic surveillance. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence's (ODNI) report points to higher confidence that Derkach, under Putin’s command, was part of the Russian operations.

Effective cultivation methods; agents planted in US media

Russian intelligence officers were successful in funneling disinformation through Giuliani and ultimately into a US television network, specifically One America News Network. This incident is cited in the ODNI report as an example of Russia's effective use ...

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Disinformation Tactics and Operations

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Andrey Derkach and Konstantin Kilimnik are individuals linked to Russian interference in the US elections. Derkach, a Ukrainian lawmaker, was accused of spreading disinformation to influence American politics. Kilimnik, a former associate of Paul Manafort, was suspected of ties to Russian intelligence and alleged involvement in election interference activities. Both individuals played roles in spreading misinformation and influencing key figures like Rudy Giuliani.
  • The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) is a U.S. government agency responsible for coordinating intelligence activities. In the context of the text, the ODNI report referenced findings related to Russian interference in the 2020 U.S. election. The report highlighted the involvement of Russian intelligence operatives like Andrey Derkach and Konstantin Kalimnik in influencing individuals within U.S. circles. The ODNI report also pointed to the strategic choices made by these operatives to avoid detection and surveillance while carrying out their activities.
  • The Mitrokhin Archive is a collection of handwritten notes made by K ...

Counterarguments

  • The sophistication of Russian disinformation tactics may be overstated, as all state actors continually evolve their espionage and influence methods.
  • The range of influence operations in 2020 might not necessarily be wider; it could be that the operations were simply different or that the detection methods improved.
  • The exploitation of individuals such as Rudy Giuliani could be seen as opportunistic rather than a reflection of a broader, more sophisticated strategy.
  • The effectiveness of planting agents or disinformation in US media could be questioned, as the impact of such operations on the actual election outcomes is difficult to measure.
  • The historical expertise of Russian intelligence in disinformation mi ...

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FTS - Disinformation and Its Discontents

US Democracy Vulnerabilities and Fractures

Thomas Rid and Weiss discuss how the polarization within the United States plays into the hands of disinformation campaigns, undermining democracy and exacerbating social divides.

Polarization enables disinformation traction

Rid explains that disinformation campaigns exploit existing societal frictions and conflicts. With the United States in 2020 already deeply fractured and polarized, it became a prime target for such influence attempts. Rid further contends that the real impact of disinformation stems not from the operations themselves but rather from the polarized conversation regarding the disinformation, which ironically gives it more attention. For instance, Rid uses the example of Facebook takedowns of obscure influence networks that, although they have small engagement figures, receive significant media coverage and reach a broader audience due to this coverage.

Weiss suggests that conversations around censorship related to disinformation accentuate the social and cultural polarization in the U.S. Furthermore, Rid points out how these active measures thrive by magnifying existing societal divisions.

Media and political establishment exacerbate divides

Weiss highlights the role of right-wing media, such as Fox News, focusing on cultural issues, which resonates with Russian media's depiction of American society as disintegrated beyond just politics and economics. This demonstrates how media and political rhetoric can deepen societal divides.

Weiss notes how historic instances like McCarthyism have been used by the Kremlin ...

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US Democracy Vulnerabilities and Fractures

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Active measures are political warfare tactics historically used by the Soviet Union and Russia, involving espionage, propaganda, sabotage, and other covert operations to influence global events. These measures aim to manipulate public opinion, destabilize governments, and advance foreign policy objectives. They encompass a wide range of activities, from media manipulation to supporting extremist groups, with the goal of undermining adversaries and shaping international narratives. Active measures have been a longstanding tool in the arsenal of Russian intelligence agencies, including the KGB and its modern successor, the FSB.
  • McCarthyism was a period of intense anti-communist fear and persecution in the United States during the late 1940s and 1950s, characterized by accusations of communist influence and espionage. U.S. Senator Joseph McCarthy played a central role in this campaign, targeting individuals suspected of communist ties. The era led to widespread fear and suspicion, impacting various aspects of American society and politics. McCarthy's actions eventually faced scrutiny and criticism, leading to a decline in his influence and the term McCarthyism becoming synonymous with political witch hunts and unjust persecution.
  • Right-wing media's focus on cultural issues typically involves highlighting topics related to social values, identity, and traditions. This emphasis often resonates with certain segments of the audience and can shape public opinion on societal norms and values. By prioritizing cultural issues in their coverage, right-wing media outlets can influence political discourse and contribute to the polarization of society. This focus on cultural narratives can sometimes overshadow discussions on more traditional political or economic matters.
  • Shedding light on intelligence operations involves revealing or exposing the activities and tactics used by intelligence agencies or entities. This can include disclosing information about covert operations, espionage efforts, or surveillance activities conducted by governments or other organizations. The goal is often to increase transparency, accountability, and public awareness regarding these secretive practices. By shedding light on intelligence operations, it aims to uncover potential abuses, violations of rights, or unethical behavior that may be hidden from public view.
  • Editorial policies in the context of disinformation pertain to the guidelines and standards set by media organizations regarding the content the ...

Counterarguments

  • Disinformation campaigns may not always be successful in exploiting societal frictions if the public is educated and critical thinking is encouraged.
  • Polarized conversations could potentially lead to a more robust democratic discourse if they result in increased engagement and awareness among the populace.
  • Media coverage of influence networks might serve a public good by informing citizens of the tactics used by foreign entities, thus inoculating them against such tactics.
  • Discussions about censorship and editorial policies are important for maintaining the balance between free speech and the prevention of harm, and should not be dismissed as mere distractions.
  • Right-wing media, like any partisan media, can also provide a platform for communities that feel their perspectives are underrepresented in mainstream discourse.
  • The focus on cultural issues by media outlets may reflect genuine public interest and concern, and these issues can have real and significant impacts on people's lives.
  • Historical instances such as McCarthyism should be used as lessons to improve current practices rather than as tools to discredit all investigations into foreign interferenc ...

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FTS - Disinformation and Its Discontents

Disinformation Impacts and Effectiveness

Thomas Rid and Michael Weiss delve into the complexities of disinformation campaigns, probing the real-world effects and the challenges of assessing their impact on political outcomes and public perception.

Open questions around whether operations alter outcomes

Weiss and Rid highlight the ambiguity surrounding the effectiveness of disinformation tactics such as troll farms and fake news outlets. Rid emphasizes that observable metrics like clicks and likes do not necessarily equate to actual impact, which is much more complicated to measure.

Concerns about loss of credibility from overstatements

Rid and Weiss express caution against overestimating and oversimplifying the effectiveness and strategic planning behind operations like the Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election. Rid critiques claims that Russian interference either installed Trump or had no impact, suggesting that such definitive statements are not fully supported by evidence and could lead to a loss of credibility.

Weiss is concerned about the exaggeration of Russian influence efforts, potentially leading to underestimation of their capabilities. Rid highlights the danger of becoming "useful idiots" by overstating or understating the effects of disinformation, and Weiss stresses the risk of the public not taking serious threats earnestly if past claims were inflated.

Wider implications of disinformation focus

In the conversation, Rid and Weiss discuss how the focus on disinformation could inadvertently play into the hands of adversaries like Russia by exacerbating social divides. Rid suggests that intelligence communities might be aware of the potential ...

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Disinformation Impacts and Effectiveness

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Troll farms are organized groups that create and spread misleading or inflammatory content online to manipulate public opinion. They often operate on social media platforms, targeting specific audiences to sow confusion or amplify certain narratives. These farms can be used in disinformation campaigns to influence political outcomes or undermine trust in institutions. Their activities can range from spreading fake news to engaging in coordinated efforts to shape public discourse.
  • The effectiveness of disinformation tactics is often ambiguous because measuring their impact is complex and not solely reliant on visible metrics like clicks or likes. Assessing how much disinformation influences public opinion or political outcomes involves considering various factors beyond surface-level engagement data. This ambiguity arises from the challenge of accurately gauging the true reach and influence of disinformation campaigns, which can have subtle and indirect effects that are hard to quantify. Understanding the effectiveness of disinformation tactics requires a nuanced approach that goes beyond simplistic metrics and considers broader societal, political, and psychological dynamics.
  • Concerns about overestimating or oversimplifying the impact of disinformation stem from the complexity of measuring its true effects on political outcomes and public perception. Assessing the influence of tactics like troll farms and fake news outlets requires a nuanced understanding beyond surface-level metrics like clicks and likes. Overstating or understating the impact of disinformation can lead to a loss of credibility and misinterpretation of the actual threats posed by foreign operations. Maintaining a balanced and evidence-based perspective is crucial to accurately gauge the impact of disinformation campaigns and ensure informed responses.
  • "Useful idiots" is a term often attributed to Lenin, referring to individuals who unintentionally aid a hostile cause through their actions or beliefs. In the context of disinformation, it can describe those who, by exaggerating or downplaying the effects of misinformation, inadvertently serve the interests of those spreading false narratives. The term implies that by not critically assessing information or by amplifying misleading claims, individuals may unwittingly contribute to the success of disinformation campaigns. It underscores the idea that even well-intentioned actors can inadvertently further the goals of malicious actors by spreading or reinforcing false information.
  • The focus on disinformation could benefit adversaries like Russia by exacerbating social divides within the targeted country, potentially weakening unity and fostering internal discord. Adversaries may exploit the attention on disinformation to divert resources and attention away from other strategic activities, allowing them to operate with less scrutiny. Additionally, heightened focus on disinformation may lead to overreactions or missteps in response, inadvertently playing into the adversary's hands. By amplifying the per ...

Counterarguments

  • While Rid and Weiss caution against overestimating the impact of disinformation, it's possible that even subtle influences can have significant cumulative effects on public opinion and political outcomes.
  • The argument that clicks and likes do not equate to actual impact might overlook the potential for these metrics to reflect or even amplify underlying societal trends and sentiments.
  • Some may argue that the focus on disinformation, rather than exacerbating social divides, could actually help in educating the public about the tactics used by adversaries, thereby fostering resilience against such campaigns.
  • There could be a perspective that intelligence communities should be more transparent with the public about disinformation threats, as this could empower citizens to critically evaluate information they encounter.
  • The use of the term "collusion" and the associated hype might be seen as a necessary part of the democratic process, where public scrutiny and media attention play a role in holding leaders accountable.
  • Concerns about becoming "useful idiots" might be countered by the argument that public debate and discussion, even if flawed, ...

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Emerging Threats and Concerns

Incentivizing escalation by other state adversaries

The increasing focus on Russian disinformation techniques and capabilities has inadvertently encouraged other state adversaries to ramp up their efforts in disinformation campaigns.

Iran, Cuba, Hezbollah following Russia’s lead

Thomas Rid observes that the extensive discussions around Russia's proficiency in disinformation have had unintended consequences. Smaller players such as Iran, Cuba, and Hezbollah are now following Russia's example, as they perceive an opportunity to achieve their objectives through disinformation. The evolving landscape suggests that these nations and groups are beginning to inves ...

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Emerging Threats and Concerns

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • The increased attention on Russia's disinformation tactics highlighted its effectiveness. This visibility made other state adversaries like Iran, Cuba, and Hezbollah see disinformation as a viable strategy. They perceived an opportunity to achieve their goals through similar tactics, leading to an unintentional encouragement for them to escalate their disinformation efforts. This dynamic reflects a trend where smaller players emulate successful strategies of larger actors in the realm of information manipulation.
  • An escalation in disinformation campaigns by various state adversaries could lead to increased confusion among the public, making it harder to discern truth from falsehood. This could potentially undermine trust in institutions, sow discord within societies, and even influence political outcomes both domestically and inte ...

Counterarguments

  • The focus on Russian disinformation might not be the cause of other states increasing their disinformation efforts; these states could be acting independently of Russia's actions, driven by their own strategic goals and the general proliferation of disinformation techniques.
  • It is possible that Iran, Cuba, and Hezbollah are not simply following Russia's lead but are developing their own unique methods of disinformation that are tailored to their specific needs and capabilities.
  • The text assumes a direct causal relationship between the focus on Russian disinformation and the actions of other state adversaries, which may not account for the complex motivations and decision-making processes of these actors.
  • The idea that there is an escalation in efforts might be an overestimation or misinterpretation of the activities of these state adversaries, as there could be other factors at play that influence their engagement in disinformation campaigns.
  • The concerns raised about escalation could be based on ...

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