Dive into the murky waters of cyber warfare with "Deep State Radio" as speakers Riley Fessler, Michael Weiss, and Thomas Rid dissect the complex realm of disinformation and its encroachment on modern democracies. The episode delves into the sophistication of Russian interference strategies, tracing the escalation from their brazen efforts in the 2016 US elections to the more covert maneuvers employed in 2020. The conversation navigates the historic tactics of Russian intelligence and examines the impact of societal fissures that provide fertile ground for misinformation to take root.
The trio discusses the intricate effects of disinformation on political discourse and the potential overestimation of its impact on election outcomes. They warn of the danger in either magnifying or dismissing the influence of misinformation campaigns and how such attitudes might play into the hands of adversaries. Moreover, the episode sheds light on the alarming trend of other state actors like Iran and Cuba taking cues from Russian strategies, intensifying global concerns about the escalating capability for information manipulation. "Deep State Radio" offers a critical analysis of the battles shaping the information landscape, the ripples they create, and the global implications they hold.
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The Silo's episode reveals the evolution of Russian interference in US elections, comparing 2016's direct approach to 2020's more clandestine operations. It points out that Russian tactics in 2020 were more sophisticated, encompassing a broader range of influence operations and making it harder for investigators to trace. Intelligence operatives successfully influenced Rudy Giuliani, using him to channel disinformation to US media like One America News Network. The importance of historical context is underscored, highlighting Russian intelligence's extensive experience in disinformation dating back to the KGB, with the caveat that the GRU's current operations remain largely obscured.
Thomas Rid and Weiss emphasize that US societal polarization facilitates the traction of disinformation campaigns. Disinformation thrives by exploiting pre-existing frictions and conflicts. The polarization is exacerbated not just through operations but also via the conversations about disinformation itself. Right-wing media's focus on cultural issues parallels Russian media narratives about American society, deepening societal divides. These political and cultural environments are exploited to discredit attempts at exposing intelligence operations. The concern is also raised that preoccupation with editorial and cultural issues distracts from more critical political and economic discussions.
The actual impact of disinformation campaigns on political outcomes and public perception is shrouded in ambiguity. Rid and Weiss argue that metrics like clicks and likes are not definitive indicators of impact and that overstatements concerning the effectiveness of disinformation can lead to a loss of credibility. The exaggeration of Russian influence efforts or the dismissal of their impact could result in the public underestimating real threats. The focus on disinformation can inadvertently benefit adversaries by reinforcing existing societal divisions and causing misunderstandings about real corruption and adversarial actions.
The detailed examination of Russian disinformation tactics has inadvertently motivated other state adversaries, such as Iran, Cuba, and Hezbollah, to enhance their disinformation campaigns. These entities are learning from Russia's methods and applying similar strategies, raising concerns about an escalation in global information manipulation efforts. As these nations and groups become more invested in these operations, there is an increased risk of complex disinformation campaigns influencing world events.
1-Page Summary
The Silo's episode provides a retrospective on Russian interference in the 2016 and 2020 US elections, reflecting on the evolving landscape of disinformation and the increasingly sophisticated means by which it’s carried out.
Guests on the show scrutinize the progression of Russian disinformation efforts, comparing the widely publicized activities of 2016 with the more clandestine operations of 2020.
The US intelligence community's report suggests that Russian methods and tactics in the 2020 election cycle were more sophisticated and likely encompassed a wider range of influence operations than in 2016. According to Thomas Rid, while the 2016 campaign offered plenty of public evidence from private sector digital forensics, the 2020 tradecraft was more disciplined and harder to trace due to the professionalization of efforts, fewer mistakes, and evasion of investigative oversight.
Attention is given to how individuals within US circles were exploited. Russian intelligence operatives, particularly Andrey Derkach and Konstantin Kalimnik, influenced Rudy Giuliani. Giuliani, acting as the President's personal attorney and an opposition research figure, was manipulated by Russian operations. His meetings in Ukraine are highlighted as strategic choices for operational security to avoid domestic surveillance. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence's (ODNI) report points to higher confidence that Derkach, under Putin’s command, was part of the Russian operations.
Russian intelligence officers were successful in funneling disinformation through Giuliani and ultimately into a US television network, specifically One America News Network. This incident is cited in the ODNI report as an example of Russia's effective use ...
Disinformation Tactics and Operations
Thomas Rid and Weiss discuss how the polarization within the United States plays into the hands of disinformation campaigns, undermining democracy and exacerbating social divides.
Rid explains that disinformation campaigns exploit existing societal frictions and conflicts. With the United States in 2020 already deeply fractured and polarized, it became a prime target for such influence attempts. Rid further contends that the real impact of disinformation stems not from the operations themselves but rather from the polarized conversation regarding the disinformation, which ironically gives it more attention. For instance, Rid uses the example of Facebook takedowns of obscure influence networks that, although they have small engagement figures, receive significant media coverage and reach a broader audience due to this coverage.
Weiss suggests that conversations around censorship related to disinformation accentuate the social and cultural polarization in the U.S. Furthermore, Rid points out how these active measures thrive by magnifying existing societal divisions.
Weiss highlights the role of right-wing media, such as Fox News, focusing on cultural issues, which resonates with Russian media's depiction of American society as disintegrated beyond just politics and economics. This demonstrates how media and political rhetoric can deepen societal divides.
Weiss notes how historic instances like McCarthyism have been used by the Kremlin ...
US Democracy Vulnerabilities and Fractures
Thomas Rid and Michael Weiss delve into the complexities of disinformation campaigns, probing the real-world effects and the challenges of assessing their impact on political outcomes and public perception.
Weiss and Rid highlight the ambiguity surrounding the effectiveness of disinformation tactics such as troll farms and fake news outlets. Rid emphasizes that observable metrics like clicks and likes do not necessarily equate to actual impact, which is much more complicated to measure.
Rid and Weiss express caution against overestimating and oversimplifying the effectiveness and strategic planning behind operations like the Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election. Rid critiques claims that Russian interference either installed Trump or had no impact, suggesting that such definitive statements are not fully supported by evidence and could lead to a loss of credibility.
Weiss is concerned about the exaggeration of Russian influence efforts, potentially leading to underestimation of their capabilities. Rid highlights the danger of becoming "useful idiots" by overstating or understating the effects of disinformation, and Weiss stresses the risk of the public not taking serious threats earnestly if past claims were inflated.
In the conversation, Rid and Weiss discuss how the focus on disinformation could inadvertently play into the hands of adversaries like Russia by exacerbating social divides. Rid suggests that intelligence communities might be aware of the potential ...
Disinformation Impacts and Effectiveness
The increasing focus on Russian disinformation techniques and capabilities has inadvertently encouraged other state adversaries to ramp up their efforts in disinformation campaigns.
Thomas Rid observes that the extensive discussions around Russia's proficiency in disinformation have had unintended consequences. Smaller players such as Iran, Cuba, and Hezbollah are now following Russia's example, as they perceive an opportunity to achieve their objectives through disinformation. The evolving landscape suggests that these nations and groups are beginning to inves ...
Emerging Threats and Concerns
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