WAGD Radio: A Peek Behind the Nuclear Curtain
Dive into the intricate world of nuclear policy on Deep State Radio with host Riley Fessler and a panel of experts including Jon Wolfsthal, Hans Kristensen, and Matt Korda. This nuanced discussion offers a sober look at the current state and progress of Russia's nuclear modernization programs, separating speculation from reality and shedding light on the advancements in strategic nuclear capabilities that Moscow is undertaking.
While Russia's modernization efforts encompass both strategic and tactical nuclear forces, this episode reveals that strategic upgrades are mostly complete, with no dramatic shifts expected in the balance of military power. However, the modernization includes improving the potential warhead capacity of systems and transitioning to newer models. On the other hand, the realm of tactical nuclear weapons remains shrouded in uncertainty with no significant change in numbers evidenced. Additionally, the episode addresses the development of new long-range cruise missiles, including the implications for the existing naval systems and compliance with the INF Treaty. Join as these experts dissect the realities behind these critical updates to Russia's nuclear arsenal.
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Russia's Nuclear Modernization Programs
Russia continues to make significant advancements in its nuclear modernization programs, updating its strategic nuclear capabilities while the details about its tactical nuclear weapons remain less clear.
Progress of Strategic Nuclear Forces Modernization
The modernization of Russia's strategic nuclear forces is nearing completion, with approximately 90% of the upgrades already in place. These changes do not equate to an increase in nuclear forces but improve the potential warhead capacity of the systems. The balance of military power is not expected to dramatically shift as a result of these updates. The force structure is consistent while the transition from older Soviet-era systems to newer models occurs. Replacement rates of older Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) with new ones are happening modestly, reflecting a slight reduction in total numbers. Submarine weaponry sees minor increases, which creates variances across different nuclear delivery system categories, all of which are receiving modern equipment.
Uncertainty Around Tactical Nuclear Weapons
Despite speculation, there is no clear evidence of a significant surge in the numbers of Russian tactical nuclear weapons. Estimates show about 1,500 tactical nuclear warheads in Russia's arsenal, slightly fewer than in the past. The modernization process of these weapons is ongoing but has not led to notable stockpile expansion.
New Long Range Cruise Missile Development
Russia's development of new long-range cruise missiles is an extension of existing naval systems, with a variant that seems to defy the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. These missiles, including the navy's pre-existing caliber cruise missiles and their land-based versions, do not significantly alter Russia's capability since they do not threaten previously secure targets. These upgrades represent Russia's commitment to maintaining and advancing its missile technologies, as pointed out by Kristensen, especially through the refinement of dual-capable missiles.
1-Page Summary
Additional Materials
Clarifications
- Tactical nuclear weapons are smaller in size and yield compared to strategic nuclear weapons. They are designed for use on the battlefield in localized conflicts rather than for long-range strategic strikes. The uncertainty around Russian tactical nuclear weapons stems from limited transparency and varying estimates regarding the exact number of these weapons in their arsenal. Despite ongoing modernization efforts, there has been no significant increase in the overall stockpile of Russian tactical nuclear warheads.
- When older Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) are replaced with new ones, it means that outdated missile systems are being upgraded or substituted with more advanced and modern missile technology. This process helps enhance the effectiveness, reliability, and capabilities of Russia's strategic nuclear forces by ensuring they have the latest missile systems in place. The replacement of older ICBMs with newer models is part of Russia's ongoing efforts to modernize its nuclear arsenal and maintain a credible deterrence capability. This modernization process involves phasing out older missile systems that may be less efficient or technologically outdated and introducing newer ICBMs that offer improved performance and features.
- Dual-capable missiles are weapons that can be used for both conventional and nuclear warheads. They provide flexibility in military operations by allowing the same missile to carry either type of payload, depending on the situation. These missiles are designed to enhance a country's deterrence capabilities and offer strategic advantages in various scenarios.
Counterarguments
- The assertion that Russia's strategic nuclear forces modernization will not dramatically shift the balance of military power could be challenged by arguing that any enhancement of warhead capacity could potentially destabilize existing power dynamics, especially if other nations perceive these upgrades as threatening and respond by increasing their own capabilities.
- The idea that the modernization of strategic nuclear forces does not equate to an increase in nuclear forces might be countered by pointing out that improved capabilities, even with the same number of warheads, could provide Russia with a more effective or survivable nuclear force, which in itself could be considered an increase in overall nuclear force effectiveness.
- The statement that the replacement rates of older ICBMs with new ones reflect a slight reduction in total numbers could be criticized by noting that the quality and capabilities of the new ICBMs might be more important than the quantity, and a reduction in numbers does not necessarily equate to a reduction in nuclear threat.
- The claim that there is no clear evidence of a significant surge in the numbers of Russian tactical nuclear weapons could be met with skepticism, as the lack of transparency and verifiable data from Russia might mean that the international community does not have a complete picture of the situation.
- The development of new long-range cruise missiles that seem to defy the INF Treaty could be seen as a more significant alteration of Russia's capability than suggested, as it could lead to a new arms race and the deployment of similar systems by other countries, thereby increasing regional and global tensions.
- The notion that the new long-range cruise missiles do not significantly alter Russia's capability because they do not threaten previously secure targets might be countered by arguing that the introduction of new missile technologies could enable Russia to engage in different strategic postures or targeting strategies that were not feasible before, thus altering the strategic landscape.
- While the text suggests that Russia's missile upgrades demonstrate a commitment to maintaining and advancing its capabilities, an alternative view could be that such actions contribute to an arms race and undermine global non-proliferation efforts, which could be seen as a negative aspect of these developments.
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Russia's Nuclear Modernization Programs
Russia is moving forward with its nuclear modernization programs, upgrading its strategic nuclear forces while the situation around its tactical nuclear weapons remains uncertain.
Progress of Strategic Nuclear Forces Modernization
Russia’s strategic nuclear forces modernization is near completion, with about 90% of the upgrade process already realized. Although there is no significant increase in the number of strategic forces, the transition to newer systems may provide an increased capacity for warheads. However, this shift is not projected to drastically alter the existing balance of power. The overall force structure remains stable as Russia transitions from Soviet-era systems to modern replacements.
Older Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) are being replaced with newer versions at a rate of less than one for one, indicating a slight decrease in numbers. Conversely, in areas such as submarine weaponry, there is a minor increase, so the numbers across different categories are in flux. Even with these upgrades, every category of Russia's nuclear delivery systems is being replaced with new versions.
Uncertainty Around Tactical Nuclear Weapons
Amidst warnings about a potential increase in Russian tactical nuclear weapons, current evidence does not corroborate these claims. Modernization efforts are underway, but a significant buildup has not been observed. Current estimates suggest that Russia possesses around 1,500 tactical nuclear warheads, which is a small decline from the previous year.
New Long Range Cruise Missile Development
Russia is in the process of developing new long range cruise missiles. These new weapons are derived from existing naval systems and there appe ...
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Russia's Nuclear Modernization Programs
Additional Materials
Clarifications
- The uncertainty around Russian tactical nuclear weapons stems from conflicting reports about a potential increase in their numbers. While modernization efforts are ongoing, there is no clear evidence of a significant buildup. Current estimates suggest a slight decline in the total number of Russian tactical nuclear warheads compared to previous years.
- The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty was an agreement between the US and the Soviet Union to eliminate certain types of missiles with ranges between 500 to 5,500 kilometers. It aimed to reduce the risk of nuclear conflict by removing these specific weapons from their arsenals. The treaty did not cover air- or sea-launched missiles. The treaty was later terminated in 2019 due to accusations of non-compliance by Russia.
- Dual-capable missiles, also known as dual-role missiles, are weapons that can serve multiple purposes, such as both conventional and nuclear roles. These missiles offer flexibility in mission planning and execution by being able to carry different types of warheads. They are designed to provide a single platform with the capability to engage various types of targets, enhancing operational versatility. Dual-capable missiles are a key component o ...
Counterarguments
- The completion rate of Russia's strategic nuclear forces modernization might be overstated or not accurately reflect the complexity and operational readiness of the new systems.
- The increase in warhead capacity due to newer systems could be more significant than suggested, potentially altering the strategic balance.
- The decrease in the number of ICBMs might be offset by the increased capabilities of the new missiles, which could be more concerning than the raw numbers indicate.
- The minor increase in submarine weaponry could have strategic implications, especially if the new submarines are stealthier or have more advanced missile systems.
- The claim that the modernization of tactical nuclear weapons does not indicate a buildup might overlook qualitative improvements that enhance their effectiveness or alter strategic calculations.
- The possession of around 1,500 tactical nuclear warheads, even if slightly decreased, still represents a significant arsenal that could be a concern for regional stability and security.
- The development of new long-range cruise missiles, even if not adding new capabilities, could be seen as an escalation and a challenge to international arms control agreements, such as the INF Treaty.
- The assertion that the new missiles do not pose a new ...
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