Dive into the dynamic world of venture capital and artificial intelligence with the inaugural episode of "BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley," where the speakers dissect the intricacies of valuation and market strategies in the tech industry. Join Gerstner and Gurley as they explore the challenges AI faces from investment tactics of major tech corporations, discussing how these entities skew valuations and potentially disrupt competitive dynamics. The conversation takes a turn into the realm of open-source collaboration, acknowledging its pivotal role in driving AI innovation forward despite the turbulent market landscape.
Switching gears, the podcast also sheds light on the VC market's ongoing correction, the evolving ethos of capitalism, and the vital interplay between innovation and economic growth. Gurley and Gerstner emphasize the need for straightforward boardroom discussions on startups' real valuations and the receptiveness of public markets to initial public offerings. Beyond the financial technicalities, they join Mike Milken in championing the fundamental principles of free market capitalism, deliberating its significance in fostering global prosperity and warning against anti-capitalist policies that may impede progress and undermine social support systems.
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The AI industry, while innovating rapidly, faces market distortions due to the investment strategies of large tech companies. The big players are affecting valuations and standards in the market, and the revenues from their AI investments may be misleading, often being reported as service credits instead of cash. Bill Gurley criticizes that these valuations are of lower quality and don't reflect actual cash flow. He also points to an issue where startup valuations are problematic due to big tech's influence, which could lead to overvaluations since the invested capital returns to the investing entities via service purchases. Gurley expresses concerns that these practices can alter the competitive dynamics and potentially cause market disruptions like price wars in AI, making it harder for startups to compete. However, despite these challenges, competition in AI development is strong, with many companies progressing swiftly, partially thanks to open source practices that encourage collaboration and foster further innovation in the sector.
Public market valuations for software companies have now aligned with more sustainable levels, similar to private company valuations. Gurley criticizes the formulaic reliance on price-to-revenue multiples that Silicon Valley often uses, calling for more solid economic reasoning in valuations. Brad Gerstner suggests that technological stocks present a lucrative long-term investment strategy because tech's share of global GDP continues to grow, and the sector has shown a stronger earnings growth compared to non-tech sectors. Gerstner advocates for index investing, particularly in technology, as it will likely provide significant returns due to the sectors' ongoing expansion and outperformance.
The VC market is undergoing a correction phase, described by Gurley as unique due to companies having large cash reserves and lowering costs, which prolongs their runway and delays an inevitable reckoning. There have been many startups shutting down and these aren't making big news. Gurley and Gerstner emphasize that honest conversations are critical for board members and founders to face the real valuations of companies. They must figure out if down rounds and lower valuations reflect the new market reality, and choose to sell or go public rather than seeking continuous bridging rounds. Gurley is keen on seeing more companies enter the public market, suggesting that the IPO window is still open despite potentially lower valuations. Gerstner reinforces that public markets are receptive to IPOs, and companies must accept this reality.
Mike Milken and Bill Gurley contend that free market capitalism is vital for innovation and global prosperity. Milken, through his Center for the American Dream, expresses his worries about the shift away from capitalism, citing its role in the growth of countries across the world. Gurley points out that the top companies in the U.S. were all venture-backed and established in recent decades, emphasizing the significant role of innovation in economic prosperity. They caution that anti-capitalist policies could harm democratic values and equitable opportunities, potentially hindering national prosperity and global leadership. Gurley also asserts the importance of the wealth generated by capitalism in funding social safety nets, warning against policy decisions that could undermine the support systems for vulnerable populations.
1-Page Summary
The fast-paced AI sector is undergoing both promising developments and facing significant market distortions due to the investing practices of major tech companies.
In the AI space, valuations and market norms are being impacted by large tech companies' investments, creating concerns about the repercussions on new startups and the broader market.
Gurley warns that reported revenues from AI investments are often in the form of service credits rather than cash, making them of lower quality. Companies appear to be using their balance sheets to drive income statements, thereby artificially inflating revenue without an actual cash influx.
Gurley and Gerstner critique the valuation principles of AI startups, which are heavily influenced by investments from big tech. This scenario may lead to overvaluation, given the invested capital is often intended to be spent back on services from the investing entities. They point out the difficulty venture capitalists face in understanding relative valuations, due to transactions between AI companies and big tech not being at arm’s length.
Gurley raises the concern that market distortions resulting from these practices could disrupt the ecosystem's established rules and affect other entities that have been operating under different conditions. He expresses that the practice of investing and then generating cashless revenue could lead to various market distortions and could possibly trigger a price war in the AI sector.
Further, Gurley warns that such practices have gone viral, with competitors following suit. This might lead to pricing services below the real cost, thus causing market distortions. Gerstner highlights the issue of large companies effectively anointing winners with their capital, making it increasingly challenging for real startups to compete for venture capital.
Gurley points out that these changes in investment and pricing could lead to negative ramifications for the mark ...
AI
Gerstner's analysis reveals that public market valuations for software companies have adjusted to more reasonable levels, more in line with private company valuations, presumably after a period when they were inflated above historical averages. Gurley adds to the conversation by expressing criticism towards Silicon Valley's reliance on price to revenue multiples for valuations. He views this as a naive method that is often not rooted in solid economic or financial logic, suggesting a shift towards more grounded valuation methods.
Gerstner indicates that the public markets may have caught up to private company valuations. There is now less "easy money" to be made as return targets are lower in a more normalized valuation environment.
Gerstner provides compelling data to support the idea of long-term technology investment as a highly beneficial strategy.
By highlighting the tremendous growth of technology, which has jumped from 5% to 15% of global GDP in the last 15 years, Gerstner bolsters the argument for the sector's expansion. He implies that the tech sector will likely continue expanding its share of the global economy.
Moreover, Gerstner presents figures showing the superior performance of technology companies compared to non-tech companies over the last decade ...
Capital markets
The VC (venture capital) correction is currently ongoing, raising questions about its status and potential conclusion.
While there is no direct mention of the correction leading to a bloodbath or it being worse than expected, Gurley notes that the correction is unique due to the large amounts of capital companies had going into it and their quick reduction of costs. These factors elongated their runway and delayed a day of reckoning. Despite many startups shutting down (with around 800 a year), these closures are not receiving significant media attention. The implication is that while the market downturn is severe, the abundance of previous funding may prolong the correction process.
Gurley and Gerstner stress the need for honest, tough conversations at the board level about the reality of company situations. Founders must quickly come to terms with their company's real valuation and take necessary steps based on that reality.
The conversation indicates a need for founders to accept down rounds and lower valuations. Gurley highlights the problem with founders' fixation on surpassing the valuation of the previous round and emphasizes the need for a shift in perspective, providing examples of public companies like Amazon and Salesforce that have traded below their offering price without it affecting their long-term success.
Gerstner points out instances like Klarna, which drastically adjusted its valuation from $46 billion in 2021 to $6.7 billion in 2022, showcasing the tough facing of reality. This indicates that boards and founders ...
VC correction
Mike Milken and Bill Gurley discuss the essential role of free market capitalism in fostering innovation and driving global prosperity, as well as the consequences of policy attacks on this economic system.
Mike Milken has initiated the Center for the American Dream and expressed concerns to Brad Gerstner about the drift from free market capitalist democracy. Milken highlighted the universal aspiration for entrepreneurship and capitalism by citing examples from diverse regions including Vietnam and the Middle East. These sentiments reflect the recognition of how capitalism and innovation have played critical roles in advancing countries to leading global positions.
Bill Gurley added weight to the discussion, noting that the leading companies by market capitalization in the United States today were all venture-backed, having been founded within the last 30 or 40 years. This illustrates the powerful impact of innovation on economic prosperity.
The dialogue between these thought leaders surfaces concerns around policies perceived as overly anti-capitalist. They warn that such policies could damage democratic values and equitable opportunities, thereby stunting the nation’s prosperity and global stan ...
Capitalism and innovation
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