Podcasts > BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley > BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | MANG VC Gone Wild, Can You Trust AI Valuations, 2024 Set Up for Public Tech Stocks, & the VC Correction Grinds On | E01

BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | MANG VC Gone Wild, Can You Trust AI Valuations, 2024 Set Up for Public Tech Stocks, & the VC Correction Grinds On | E01

By BG2Pod

Dive into the dynamic world of venture capital and artificial intelligence with the inaugural episode of "BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley," where the speakers dissect the intricacies of valuation and market strategies in the tech industry. Join Gerstner and Gurley as they explore the challenges AI faces from investment tactics of major tech corporations, discussing how these entities skew valuations and potentially disrupt competitive dynamics. The conversation takes a turn into the realm of open-source collaboration, acknowledging its pivotal role in driving AI innovation forward despite the turbulent market landscape.

Switching gears, the podcast also sheds light on the VC market's ongoing correction, the evolving ethos of capitalism, and the vital interplay between innovation and economic growth. Gurley and Gerstner emphasize the need for straightforward boardroom discussions on startups' real valuations and the receptiveness of public markets to initial public offerings. Beyond the financial technicalities, they join Mike Milken in championing the fundamental principles of free market capitalism, deliberating its significance in fostering global prosperity and warning against anti-capitalist policies that may impede progress and undermine social support systems.

Listen to the original

BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | MANG VC Gone Wild, Can You Trust AI Valuations, 2024 Set Up for Public Tech Stocks, & the VC Correction Grinds On | E01

This is a preview of the Shortform summary of the Jan 25, 2024 episode of the BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley

Sign up for Shortform to access the whole episode summary along with additional materials like counterarguments and context.

BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | MANG VC Gone Wild, Can You Trust AI Valuations, 2024 Set Up for Public Tech Stocks, & the VC Correction Grinds On | E01

1-Page Summary

AI

The AI industry, while innovating rapidly, faces market distortions due to the investment strategies of large tech companies. The big players are affecting valuations and standards in the market, and the revenues from their AI investments may be misleading, often being reported as service credits instead of cash. Bill Gurley criticizes that these valuations are of lower quality and don't reflect actual cash flow. He also points to an issue where startup valuations are problematic due to big tech's influence, which could lead to overvaluations since the invested capital returns to the investing entities via service purchases. Gurley expresses concerns that these practices can alter the competitive dynamics and potentially cause market disruptions like price wars in AI, making it harder for startups to compete. However, despite these challenges, competition in AI development is strong, with many companies progressing swiftly, partially thanks to open source practices that encourage collaboration and foster further innovation in the sector.

Capital markets

Public market valuations for software companies have now aligned with more sustainable levels, similar to private company valuations. Gurley criticizes the formulaic reliance on price-to-revenue multiples that Silicon Valley often uses, calling for more solid economic reasoning in valuations. Brad Gerstner suggests that technological stocks present a lucrative long-term investment strategy because tech's share of global GDP continues to grow, and the sector has shown a stronger earnings growth compared to non-tech sectors. Gerstner advocates for index investing, particularly in technology, as it will likely provide significant returns due to the sectors' ongoing expansion and outperformance.

VC correction

The VC market is undergoing a correction phase, described by Gurley as unique due to companies having large cash reserves and lowering costs, which prolongs their runway and delays an inevitable reckoning. There have been many startups shutting down and these aren't making big news. Gurley and Gerstner emphasize that honest conversations are critical for board members and founders to face the real valuations of companies. They must figure out if down rounds and lower valuations reflect the new market reality, and choose to sell or go public rather than seeking continuous bridging rounds. Gurley is keen on seeing more companies enter the public market, suggesting that the IPO window is still open despite potentially lower valuations. Gerstner reinforces that public markets are receptive to IPOs, and companies must accept this reality.

Capitalism and innovation

Mike Milken and Bill Gurley contend that free market capitalism is vital for innovation and global prosperity. Milken, through his Center for the American Dream, expresses his worries about the shift away from capitalism, citing its role in the growth of countries across the world. Gurley points out that the top companies in the U.S. were all venture-backed and established in recent decades, emphasizing the significant role of innovation in economic prosperity. They caution that anti-capitalist policies could harm democratic values and equitable opportunities, potentially hindering national prosperity and global leadership. Gurley also asserts the importance of the wealth generated by capitalism in funding social safety nets, warning against policy decisions that could undermine the support systems for vulnerable populations.

1-Page Summary

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Big tech companies influence AI market valuations by investing in startups, which can lead to overvaluations. These companies often report AI investments as service credits rather than cash, affecting the perceived value of the market. This practice can distort competition dynamics and potentially trigger market disruptions like price wars. The influence of big tech on AI markets raises concerns about the accuracy of valuations and the sustainability of growth in the industry.
  • When companies invest in AI, they sometimes report the returns from these investments as service credits instead of cash. This means that instead of receiving actual cash as revenue, they receive credits that can be used to access services or products from the investing company. This practice can make it challenging to assess the true financial impact of AI investments and may lead to discrepancies in how the value of these investments is perceived. By reporting revenues in the form of service credits, companies can potentially inflate the perceived value of their AI initiatives without directly impacting their cash flow.
  • Bill Gurley criticizes the AI industry's valuations, highlighting concerns about the influence of large tech companies on startup valuations and the reporting of AI investments as service credits instead of cash. He argues that these practices can distort market dynamics, potentially leading to overvaluations and market disruptions like price wars. Gurley emphasizes the need for more transparency and solid economic reasoning in valuing AI companies to ensure accurate assessments of their financial health and competitive positioning.
  • Big tech companies can impact startup valuations by investing in them, which can lead to overvaluations. This influence occurs because the invested capital often returns to the big tech companies through service purchases, potentially inflating the startup's perceived value. This dynamic can distort the market and make it challenging for startups to compete on a level playing field. Startup valuations may not always accurately reflect the true financial health of the company due to these complex relationships and influences.
  • In the context of the VC market correction phase, startups shutting down indicates a period where some startups are failing to sustain their operations and are ceasing their business activities. This can be due to various reasons such as lack of profitability, market challenges, or unsustainable business models. The shutdown of startups is a natural part of the venture capital ecosystem, where not all companies succeed, and it often leads to a recalibration of investment strategies and valuations in the market.
  • In the context of startups and venture capital, honest conversations between board members and founders are crucial for accurately assessing the true value of a company. This transparency helps in making informed decisions about the company's financial health and future prospects. It enables stakeholders to address any discrepancies between perceived and actual valuations, leading to better strategic planning and risk management. Ultimately, these discussions can guide important choices such as whether to pursue further funding, consider a sale, or opt for an initial public offering (IPO).
  • Encouraging more companies to enter the public market despite potentially lower valuations can be beneficial for several reasons. Going public provides access to a larger pool of capital from public investors, enabling companies to fund growth and expansion. It also enhances transparency and credibility, which can attract more customers and partners. Additionally, being a public company can offer liquidity to existing shareholders and create opportunities for future acquisitions or strategic partnerships.

Counterarguments

  • While large tech companies may influence AI market valuations, their investments also provide essential capital and resources that can help startups scale and innovate more rapidly.
  • Reporting revenues as service credits instead of cash could be part of strategic financial planning and may offer tax advantages or better reflect the value of long-term contracts.
  • Valuations based on non-cash metrics can be legitimate if they are based on sound financial principles and accurately predict future cash flows.
  • The influence of big tech on startup valuations might also lead to more rigorous due diligence and higher standards, which could benefit the overall market.
  • Price wars in AI could result in lower prices for consumers and drive innovation as companies seek to maintain a competitive edge.
  • The reliance on price-to-revenue multiples in Silicon Valley could be seen as a reflection of the high growth potential in the tech sector, which traditional valuation methods may not capture.
  • Index investing in technology, while generally successful, may not always outperform other investment strategies, especially during market downturns or when tech valuations are at a peak.
  • The VC market correction could be a healthy adjustment that leads to more sustainable business practices and a focus on profitability over growth at any cost.
  • Entering the public market is not always the best path for every company; some may benefit from staying private longer or exploring alternative financing options.
  • While free market capitalism has driven innovation and prosperity, it is also important to consider the role of regulation in ensuring fair competition and preventing monopolistic practices.
  • The success of venture-backed U.S. companies does not necessarily mean that the venture capital model is the best or only path to innovation and economic prosperity.
  • Social safety nets can be funded through various economic systems, not just the wealth generated by capitalism, and some argue that more equitable distribution of wealth could be achieved through different policies.
  • Policy decisions that aim to address inequality or provide more robust social safety nets are not inherently anti-capitalist and can coexist with a capitalist economy.

Get access to the context and additional materials

So you can understand the full picture and form your own opinion.
Get access for free
BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | MANG VC Gone Wild, Can You Trust AI Valuations, 2024 Set Up for Public Tech Stocks, & the VC Correction Grinds On | E01

AI

The fast-paced AI sector is undergoing both promising developments and facing significant market distortions due to the investing practices of major tech companies.

MASSIVE market distortions due to big tech AI investing practices

In the AI space, valuations and market norms are being impacted by large tech companies' investments, creating concerns about the repercussions on new startups and the broader market.

Revenues from AI investments may be of low quality and cashless

Gurley warns that reported revenues from AI investments are often in the form of service credits rather than cash, making them of lower quality. Companies appear to be using their balance sheets to drive income statements, thereby artificially inflating revenue without an actual cash influx.

Poor startup AI valuation principles, influenced by big tech AI investing

Gurley and Gerstner critique the valuation principles of AI startups, which are heavily influenced by investments from big tech. This scenario may lead to overvaluation, given the invested capital is often intended to be spent back on services from the investing entities. They point out the difficulty venture capitalists face in understanding relative valuations, due to transactions between AI companies and big tech not being at arm’s length.

Concern that market distortions will negatively impact other players

Gurley raises the concern that market distortions resulting from these practices could disrupt the ecosystem's established rules and affect other entities that have been operating under different conditions. He expresses that the practice of investing and then generating cashless revenue could lead to various market distortions and could possibly trigger a price war in the AI sector.

Further, Gurley warns that such practices have gone viral, with competitors following suit. This might lead to pricing services below the real cost, thus causing market distortions. Gerstner highlights the issue of large companies effectively anointing winners with their capital, making it increasingly challenging for real startups to compete for venture capital.

Gurley points out that these changes in investment and pricing could lead to negative ramifications for the mark ...

Here’s what you’ll find in our full summary

Registered users get access to the Full Podcast Summary and Additional Materials. It’s easy and free!
Start your free trial today

AI

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Service credits are a form of payment often used in business transactions where a company receives credits for services instead of cash. In the context of AI investments, reported revenues from these service credits can artificially inflate a company's revenue without an actual cash influx, impacting the quality of the reported earnings. This practice can lead to market distortions and concerns about the true financial health of companies involved in AI investments. Service credits are essentially a non-monetary form of compensation that can affect how revenues are perceived and valued in the AI sector.
  • Venture capitalists face challenges in understanding relative valuations when transactions between AI companies and big tech are not at arm's length. Transactions not at arm's length mean that the parties involved have a close relationship or shared interests, potentially leading to valuations that may not accurately reflect market conditions. This lack of independence can make it difficult for venture capitalists to assess the true value of a startup, as the investment terms may be influenced by factors beyond typical market dynamics. Understanding relative valuations is crucial for investors to make informed decisions about funding startups in the AI sector.
  • Market distortions in the context of AI investing can disrupt the established norms and rules of the industry, affecting how companies operate and compete. When large tech companies influence valuations and investment practices in the AI sector, it can create an uneven playing field for startups and other players. This can lead to challenges in fair competition, pricing strategies, and overall market dynamics. The concerns about market distortions highlight the potential risks of certain practices impacting the broader ecosystem of AI development and investment.
  • Competitors following big tech practices may lead to pricing services below the real cost, as they mimic the strategies of larger companies without considering their own financial viability. This can create market distortions and trigger a price war in the AI sector, impacting the sustainability of businesses offering services at unsustainable prices. The pressure to match the pricing set by big tech companies, who may have different financial backing or strategic goals, can force smaller players to underprice their services to remain competitive. This practice can have negative consequences on the overall market health and the ability of startups to compete effectively.
  • Large companies anointing winners with capital means that major tech fir ...

Counterarguments

  • Big tech investments can also drive innovation and provide necessary capital for AI research and development.
  • Service credits can be valuable for startups by reducing their operational costs and allowing them to allocate resources elsewhere.
  • High valuations can attract more talent and investment to the AI sector, potentially accelerating growth and innovation.
  • Market distortions might correct themselves over time as the industry matures and more data becomes available for better valuation models.
  • The practice of investing in startups is not unique to AI and can be seen across various tech sectors, suggesting it's part of a broader investment strategy.
  • Some startups may benefit from the association with big tech, gaining credibility and easier access to markets.
  • The rapid advancement in AI could lead to economies of scale, eventually reducing costs and benefiting consumers.
  • Open source practices might l ...

Get access to the context and additional materials

So you can understand the full picture and form your own opinion.
Get access for free
BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | MANG VC Gone Wild, Can You Trust AI Valuations, 2024 Set Up for Public Tech Stocks, & the VC Correction Grinds On | E01

Capital markets

Software valuations have normalized after massive multiple expansion

Gerstner's analysis reveals that public market valuations for software companies have adjusted to more reasonable levels, more in line with private company valuations, presumably after a period when they were inflated above historical averages. Gurley adds to the conversation by expressing criticism towards Silicon Valley's reliance on price to revenue multiples for valuations. He views this as a naive method that is often not rooted in solid economic or financial logic, suggesting a shift towards more grounded valuation methods.

Public markets have caught up to private company valuations

Gerstner indicates that the public markets may have caught up to private company valuations. There is now less "easy money" to be made as return targets are lower in a more normalized valuation environment.

Long term tech stock compounding is a free lunch

Gerstner provides compelling data to support the idea of long-term technology investment as a highly beneficial strategy.

Tech continues growing as share of GDP

By highlighting the tremendous growth of technology, which has jumped from 5% to 15% of global GDP in the last 15 years, Gerstner bolsters the argument for the sector's expansion. He implies that the tech sector will likely continue expanding its share of the global economy.

Tech earnings growth outpaces non-tech

Moreover, Gerstner presents figures showing the superior performance of technology companies compared to non-tech companies over the last decade ...

Here’s what you’ll find in our full summary

Registered users get access to the Full Podcast Summary and Additional Materials. It’s easy and free!
Start your free trial today

Capital markets

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • In the context of "easy money" in a normalized valuation environment, it typically means that the opportunities for quick and substantial profits have decreased. This is because when valuations are more in line with realistic levels, investors may no longer see the same level of rapid and significant returns as they might have during periods of inflated valuations. In a normalized environment, investors may need to work harder or wait longer to achieve their desired returns compared to when valuations were inflated. This shift signifies a more balanced and rational market where investment decisions may require more careful consideration and patience.
  • Long-term technology investment is considered highly beneficial due to the sector's historical growth and potential for future expansion, leading to potentially significant returns for investors over time. Technology companies have shown strong earnings growth and have outperformed non-tech sectors, making them attractive for long-term investment strategies. Investing in technology as a whole through index funds can provide diversified exposure to the sector's growth and innovation, offering a way to benefit from the overall success of the tech industry without the need to pick individual winners. This strategy leverages the continued relevance and growth of the technology sector in the global economy, making it a compelling option for investors seeking long-term wealth accumulation.
  • The growth of technology's contribution to global GDP from 5% to 15% in the last 15 years signifies a significant increase in the economic importance of the tech sector worldwide. This expansion reflects the increasing adoption and integration of technology in various industries and daily life, driving its share of economic output higher. The rise in tech's GDP share highlights the sector's transformative impact on productivity, innovation, and overall economic growth on a global scale. This shift underscores the evolving nature of the economy towards a more technology-driven landscape, with implications for investment opportunities and economic policies.
  • Tech earnings compounding at 13% versus 6% in non-tech sectors: This statement indicates that the earnings of technology ...

Counterarguments

  • Software valuations may have normalized, but this does not guarantee stability or predict future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and what seems normalized today may be considered overvalued or undervalued tomorrow.
  • While public markets may have caught up to private company valuations, this does not necessarily mean that all private valuations are accurate or justified. Some private companies may still be overvalued due to less stringent disclosure requirements and different investor expectations.
  • Long-term tech stock compounding, while historically beneficial, is not guaranteed to continue indefinitely. Market dynamics, regulatory changes, and technological disruptions can alter growth trajectories.
  • Although tech has been growing as a share of GDP, this trend may not continue at the same pace. Saturation, competition, regulatory challenges, and global economic shifts could slow down the growth of the tech sector.
  • Tech earnings growth outpacing non-tech has been true historic ...

Get access to the context and additional materials

So you can understand the full picture and form your own opinion.
Get access for free
BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | MANG VC Gone Wild, Can You Trust AI Valuations, 2024 Set Up for Public Tech Stocks, & the VC Correction Grinds On | E01

VC correction

The VC (venture capital) correction is currently ongoing, raising questions about its status and potential conclusion.

Bloodbath worse than expected but may drag out due to ample cash reserves

While there is no direct mention of the correction leading to a bloodbath or it being worse than expected, Gurley notes that the correction is unique due to the large amounts of capital companies had going into it and their quick reduction of costs. These factors elongated their runway and delayed a day of reckoning. Despite many startups shutting down (with around 800 a year), these closures are not receiving significant media attention. The implication is that while the market downturn is severe, the abundance of previous funding may prolong the correction process.

Need for honest conversations between investors and founders

Gurley and Gerstner stress the need for honest, tough conversations at the board level about the reality of company situations. Founders must quickly come to terms with their company's real valuation and take necessary steps based on that reality.

Accept down rounds and lower valuations as new reality

The conversation indicates a need for founders to accept down rounds and lower valuations. Gurley highlights the problem with founders' fixation on surpassing the valuation of the previous round and emphasizes the need for a shift in perspective, providing examples of public companies like Amazon and Salesforce that have traded below their offering price without it affecting their long-term success.

Gerstner points out instances like Klarna, which drastically adjusted its valuation from $46 billion in 2021 to $6.7 billion in 2022, showcasing the tough facing of reality. This indicates that boards and founders ...

Here’s what you’ll find in our full summary

Registered users get access to the Full Podcast Summary and Additional Materials. It’s easy and free!
Start your free trial today

VC correction

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • A down round occurs when a company raises funding at a valuation lower than its previous funding round. This can happen due to various reasons like underperformance or market conditions. Down rounds can dilute existing shareholders and indicate challenges the company is facing in maintaining or increasing its value. It is a significant event that can impact the company's future fundraising prospects and overall trajectory.
  • Public market valuations represent the perceived worth of a company based on its stock price and market capitalization when it is publicly traded on a stock exchange. This valuation is determined by the collective assessment of investors and reflects the company's performance, growth prospects, and overall market conditions. It serves as a benchmark for the company's value in the public domain and influences decisions related to fundraising, acquisitions, and investor sentiment. Understanding public market valuations is crucial for companies considering going public or already listed on stock exchanges.
  • The term "clearing prices" in the context of the text refers to the equilibrium p ...

Counterarguments

  • The VC correction may not be as prolonged as suggested if external economic factors change rapidly, leading to a quicker recovery or further downturn.
  • Media attention on startup closures could be more significant than indicated, depending on the sources and regions considered.
  • Honest conversations between investors and founders, while necessary, may not always lead to the best outcomes if there is a misalignment of interests or perspectives.
  • Accepting down rounds and lower valuations might not always be the best strategy if a company has a credible plan for recovery and growth that justifies holding out for better terms.
  • Selling or going public might not be viable for all companies, especially if they are not ready or if market conditions are unfavorable, making bridging rounds a necessary strategy for some.
  • The IPO w ...

Get access to the context and additional materials

So you can understand the full picture and form your own opinion.
Get access for free
BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | MANG VC Gone Wild, Can You Trust AI Valuations, 2024 Set Up for Public Tech Stocks, & the VC Correction Grinds On | E01

Capitalism and innovation

Mike Milken and Bill Gurley discuss the essential role of free market capitalism in fostering innovation and driving global prosperity, as well as the consequences of policy attacks on this economic system.

Free markets and tech innovation drive global prosperity

Mike Milken has initiated the Center for the American Dream and expressed concerns to Brad Gerstner about the drift from free market capitalist democracy. Milken highlighted the universal aspiration for entrepreneurship and capitalism by citing examples from diverse regions including Vietnam and the Middle East. These sentiments reflect the recognition of how capitalism and innovation have played critical roles in advancing countries to leading global positions.

Bill Gurley added weight to the discussion, noting that the leading companies by market capitalization in the United States today were all venture-backed, having been founded within the last 30 or 40 years. This illustrates the powerful impact of innovation on economic prosperity.

Policy attacks on capitalism can devastate prosperity

The dialogue between these thought leaders surfaces concerns around policies perceived as overly anti-capitalist. They warn that such policies could damage democratic values and equitable opportunities, thereby stunting the nation’s prosperity and global stan ...

Here’s what you’ll find in our full summary

Registered users get access to the Full Podcast Summary and Additional Materials. It’s easy and free!
Start your free trial today

Capitalism and innovation

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Mike Milken is a prominent figure in finance known for his work in the 1980s and later philanthropic efforts. Bill Gurley is a venture capitalist known for his investments in technology companies like Uber and Snapchat. Both individuals are respected for their insights on capitalism, innovation, and economic prosperity.
  • Venture capital plays a significant role in funding and supporting the growth of innovative startups. Many of the leading companies in the US today, especially in the tech sector, have received early-stage funding from venture capital firms. This financial support helps these companies develop their products, scale their operations, and ultimately become successful enterprises with high market capitalization. The relationship between leading companies and venture capital underscores the importance of investment and risk-taking in driving innovation and economic growth.
  • Policies perceived as anti-capitalist can impact democratic values by potentially limiting individual freedoms and reducing economic incentives. They may also affect equitable opportunities by altering the distributi ...

Counterarguments

  • While capitalism has been associated with innovation, it is not the only system that can foster innovation; other economic models, such as mixed economies or social democracies, have also produced significant technological advancements and can incorporate elements of state support or cooperative ownership alongside market mechanisms.
  • The universal aspiration for entrepreneurship may not be as widespread as suggested; different cultures and societies may prioritize community-oriented or collective approaches over individual entrepreneurship.
  • The success of venture-backed companies in the US does not necessarily imply that this model is the best or only path to economic prosperity; there may be other factors at play, such as regulatory environments, educational systems, and infrastructure that also contribute to a nation's economic success.
  • The argument that policy attacks on capitalism can harm prosperity assumes that all such policies are detrimental; however, some regulations and reforms may be necessary to address market failures, protect consumers, and ensure fair competition, which can ultimately benefit the economy.
  • The claim that capitalism is necessary for fund ...

Get access to the context and additional materials

So you can understand the full picture and form your own opinion.
Get access for free

Create Summaries for anything on the web

Download the Shortform Chrome extension for your browser

Shortform Extension CTA