Statistics Archives

Lies in Science: How a Focus on P-Values Leads to Bullshit

Is the institution of science immune from misinformation? How can there be lies in science when practitioners are committed to the scientific method? In Calling Bullshit, Carl T. Bergstrom and Jevin D. West argue that science’s focus on statistical significance gives rise to bullshit for two reasons: we can easily misinterpret what statistical significance means, and we’re exposed to statistically significant findings only because of publication bias. Let’s take a close look at both of these problematic dynamics in science.

Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World

Do you know bullshit when you see it? What do you do about it? Should you call it out? With the proliferation of misinformation online, in the news, and even in academia, the modern world is replete with nonsense and flat-out lies. In their book Calling Bullshit, Carl T. Bergstrom and Jevin D. West contend that anyone can learn how to detect and refute bullshit in its many forms. Continue reading for an overview of this book that’s more important than ever.

Bullshit: The Problem With Big Data You Should Know About

What’s big data? How helpful is training data? What can make it problematic? Professors Carl T. Bergstrom and Jevin D. West are so concerned about misinformation that they wrote a book about it. In Calling Bullshit, they argue that big data can foster bullshit because it can incorporate poor training data and find illusory connections by chance. Continue reading to learn about a problem with big data that should have everyone’s attention.

Why Do People Want Money So Bad? The Top Motivations

Why do people want money? What motivates you to make more money? To achieve financial success, You Are a Badass at Making Money by Jen Sincero asserts that you must clearly define why you want money and what you want it for. Having a general desire to be wealthy isn’t enough, as you’ll likely have to push yourself to reach your financial goals. Continue reading if you want to dig deep and discover why you truly want more money.

How to Use Bayesian Reasoning to Make Better Predictions

What if you could make better decisions because you’re able to make better predictions? How can an eighteenth-century statistician help you? People often miscalculate the probability of an event occurring and then make poor decisions based on that miscalculation. Steven Pinker explains how you can use Bayesian reasoning to make more accurate assessments of evidence and, in turn, make more accurate predictions about the future. Read more to learn how to use Bayesian reasoning to make decisions that are based on a better understanding of what’s going on.

Understand Probability and Randomness to Make Better Decisions

Are you superstitious at all? Can you tell when data is meaningful and when it’s just random? According to Steven Pinker, an important aspect of rationality is getting a good handle on probability and randomness in order to make more accurate assessments and, in turn, better decisions. He looks at two ways that people misunderstand probability and shares a handy tool to counter these flaws in thinking. Keep reading to get a better grasp on how probability works and how randomness comes into play.

Steven Pinker Explains Why Correlation Doesn’t Equal Causation

Do you ever confuse correlation with causation? How can you accurately determine the cause of something? In Rationality, Steven Pinker examines why people make irrational decisions. Often, people run into problems when considering causation and correlation. He explains how to avoid the trap of linking them when they’re not connected and offers some tips on how to determine actual causes. Continue reading to understand why correlation doesn’t equal causation.

Jim Simons’s Career: From Soviet Codes to Stock Trend Patterns

How did Jim Simons first identify stock trend patterns that changed the market forever? What did Simons do as a codebreaker? Jim Simons is known for his work as a mathematician who identified recognizable and consistent patterns in the financial market. But what some people might not know is that he started out decoding Soviet messages and signals during the Cold War. Discover more about how a codebreaker used his work to identify stock trend patterns.

How Jim Simons’s Trading Strategy Changed the Market

What is Jim Simons’s trading strategy? Why did his strategy take off in the 1990s and 2000s? Jim Simons’s trading strategy was so unique that it made him one of the best money managers in modern financial history. It focused on buying or selling currencies at the right time based on the model’s predictions of when they were most likely to rise or fall in value. Let’s look at how the Renaissance strategy dominated the Quant Era of Wall Street.

The Marginal Value Theorem In Relation to Humans

What is the marginal value theorem? Why is technology so distracting? To explain technology’s impact on interference and the brain, The Distracted Mind by Adam Gazzaley and Larry D. Rosen looks to the marginal value theorem. The MVT is used to examine food habits in animals but can be applied to humans’ excessive use of technology. Find out more about the marginal value theorem here.