Statistics

What if you could make better decisions because you’re able to make better predictions? How can an eighteenth-century statistician help you? People often miscalculate the probability of an event occurring and then make poor decisions based on that miscalculation. Steven Pinker explains how you can use Bayesian reasoning to make more accurate assessments of evidence and, in turn, make more accurate predictions about the future. Read more to learn how to use Bayesian reasoning to make decisions that are based on a better understanding of what’s going on.

Are you superstitious at all? Can you tell when data is meaningful and when it’s just random? According to Steven Pinker, an important aspect of rationality is getting a good handle on probability and randomness in order to make more accurate assessments and, in turn, better decisions. He looks at two ways that people misunderstand probability and shares a handy tool to counter these flaws in thinking. Keep reading to get a better grasp on how probability works and how randomness comes into play.

Do you ever confuse correlation with causation? How can you accurately determine the cause of something? In Rationality, Steven Pinker examines why people make irrational decisions. Often, people run into problems when considering causation and correlation. He explains how to avoid the trap of linking them when they’re not connected and offers some tips on how to determine actual causes. Continue reading to understand why correlation doesn’t equal causation.