The World's Best Book Summaries
What is an example of a weak inductive argument? Why are so many inductive arguments weak? We’ll cover some famously weak inductive arguments and explore two ways to be a better, more logical thinker.
What is the Broken Window Theory in criminology? How has Wilson and Kelling’s broken windows theory been used to reduce crime in places like New York City? The Broken Window Theory is a sociological theory that says that smaller signs of disorder — like broken windows left in disrepair on a building — send the message that anything goes. This subtle message leads to greater crime and public disorder. It was developed by James Wilson and George Kelling. We’ll look at how the broken window theory in sociology has been used to reduce crime.
What is the cosmological argument? Is it sound? What are the arguments against the cosmological argument? The anthropic cosmological argument is the statement that human existence cannot be a random occurrence because of the specificity and number of factors that provide for that existence. This argument is touted by not only religious scholars but also physicists and philosophers. We’ll cover the basics of the cosmological argument and explore the concept of “silent evidence,” the broader term for the lack of evidence in an argument.
What is the ludic fallacy? How does the tendency to “tunnel” into what we know lead us into making cognitive errors? The ludic fallacy is the tendency to treat uncertainty in real life like uncertainty in games of chance. The problem with this approach is that, unlike games of chance, real life has no rules. We’ll cover how the ludic fallacy shapes our predictions and why thinking of uncertainty like a game of blackjack is unproductive.
What is the barbell strategy? What is a barbell investing approach? How can you adopt the barbell strategy to mitigate risk in investing and in life? The “barbell strategy” is an approach designed to minimize the pain of a negative event while, potentially, reaping the benefits of a positive event. The barbell strategy is commonly used in investing, but it’s also applicable to life more generally. We’ll cover the nature of the barbell strategy and other strategies for mitigating risks.
Who is Nassim Nicholas Taleb? How did he develop his popular “black swan” theory? The Black Swan is the second book in former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s five-volume series on uncertainty. This book analyzes so-called “Black Swans”—extremely unpredictable events that have massive impacts on human society. We’ll explore how Nassim Nicholas Taleb became obsessed with probability (or, more accurately, improbability) and how he developed his theory of black swans.
What is the butterfly effect theory? How is it related to the idea of nonlinearities? How does it explain why we make bad predictions? The butterfly effect theory is the idea that a small change in a nonlinear system can have huge effects in the larger system. This idea was proposed by an MIT meteorologist, who discovered that an infinitesimal change in input parameters can drastically change weather models. We’ll cover what the butterfly effect theory is and how small changes can have large effects.
In an unpredictable world, why plan? Is there a way to prepare for unexpected events, even if we can’t exactly plan for them? Why is planning important? We’ll look at the concept of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “black swan” and explore why planning is important, even if the world is unpredictable.
What is stage 17 of Joseph Campbell’s hero’s journey? What is the significance of the “freedom to live”? Freedom to live is the stage of the hero’s journey in which the hero has found a balance between his internal and external worlds and he no longer fears death. Freedom to live is stage 17, the last stage, of Joseph Campbell’s hero’s journey, from The Hero with a Thousand Faces. We’ll cover what the freedom to live entails and look at examples of the freedom-to-live stage of the hero’s journey.
No one can predict the future. But why? Why are some situations and events more predictable than others? We’ll cover the nature of predictability according to Nassim Nicholas Taleb and look at why it is that no one can predict the future.