Why do we search for meaning in random events? What drives us to interpret coincidences as signs from the universe?
In You Are Not So Smart, David McRaney explores our tendency toward believing in fate and finding patterns where none exist. From rainy wedding days to missed flights, he reveals how our minds transform random occurrences into meaningful moments.
Keep reading to discover why believing in fate can both help and harm us, and learn practical ways to balance magical thinking with reality-based decision-making.
Believing in Fate
McRaney explains we commonly interpret random events by choosing to believe there’s a deeper meaning behind them—we attribute them to fate. This can be seen in psychological phenomena such as the Texas sharpshooter fallacy, where we prefer to see events as meaningful instead of random. For example, if it rains on your wedding day, you might interpret it as a sign you and your partner will be together forever. Believing in fate can also be seen in apophenia, where we prefer to see events as miraculous rather than coincidental. For example, you miss your plane but meet a new friend while you’re waiting for the next one—you might think this was meant to be.
Realistically, the events in these examples are completely random, but you choose to assign reason to them for two main reasons: 1) Our brains are wired to look for patterns, and 2) we like narratives where characters overcome hardships—missing the plane wasn’t so bad if you got a new friend out of it.
(Shortform note: McRaney explains that we’re prone to cognitive biases such as the Texas sharpshooter fallacy and apophenia because of our desire to avoid ambiguity and the unknown; however, other psychological theories could explain these phenomena. For example, prospect theory proposes that people evaluate potential losses and gains unevenly, often leading to loss aversion. This tendency can drive individuals to attribute meaning to random events—such as interpreting rain on a wedding day as a sign of enduring love—because it eases the discomfort associated with negative outcomes.)
McRaney explains that this phenomenon has good and bad outcomes. Believing in fate is good when it helps you overcome hardships; however, it can be bad when you use it as a basis for making poor choices. For example, you find out a week after your wedding that your spouse has been cheating on you. But, because it rained on your wedding day, you tell yourself your marriage must be destined to last, so you stay with them. In reality, the rain has nothing to do with your happiness and your spouse will likely continue cheating—so the better decision is to move on and find happiness with someone who respects you. McRaney recommends overcoming this faulty thinking by recognizing when you’re making up meaning and basing your perceptions on facts instead.
| The Burden of Fate and How to Overcome It While believing in fate and destiny can have positive effects as McRaney mentions, there are more extensive negative consequences than he discusses. When taken to the extreme, falling prey to this phenomenon can lead to fatalism, the belief that your fate is entirely out of your control. This sense of helplessness and resignation can produce mental health problems by increasing stress, anxiety, and depression. To help prevent these problems, McRaney suggests improving your self-awareness. One way to improve your self-awareness is by journaling. Recording the events of your day, your thoughts, and your feelings can help you more rationally understand what happened—and how your emotions might have impacted your initial perceptions.) You can also use journaling to address other phenomena that McRaney recommends overcoming via self-awareness. |
