The World's Best Book Summaries
What is hindsight bias? How does it work, and how can you avoid it? Hindsight bias is the tendency to believe you have predicted events or outcomes that were unpredictable. Hindsight bias is a problem because it inflates our confidence about predicting the future. We’ll look at hindsight bias examples that make the above definition clearer. Learn why the hindsight bias in psychology is an issue and how to overcome it.
What is “fast thinking?” When should you use it, and when should you slow down? Fast thinking is thinking that is automatic and quick. It uses little or no effort, and no sense of voluntary control. Learn when to trust your fast thinking and why formulas usually beat intuitions.
What is expected utility theory? How is it used to predict human behavior? And what are its flaws? Expected utility theory is a theory of how people make choices and take risks when they don’t know the outcome. Traditional expected utility theory asserts that people are rational agents that calculate the utility of each situation and make the optimum choice each time. We’ll look at how expected utility theory for decision making works and cover some of its flaws.
What is outcome bias? How does it manifest in your everyday life, and how can you avoid it? Outcome bias is the tendency to evaluate the quality of a decision when the outcome is already known. People who succeeded are assumed to have made better decisions than people who failed. We’ll look at outcome bias examples and why we’re so vulnerable to outcome bias.
What is “slow thinking?” How can you use it to become a better thinker and make better decisions? Slow thinking is when you allocate attention to the effortful mental activities that demand it, including complex computations. It’s often associated with the subjective experience of agency, choice and concentration. We’ll cover what slow thinking is and how to use it to make better decisions.
Who is Wing Chau of The Big Short fame? What was his role in the 2008 financial crisis, and why was it controversial? And how did he make an estimated $26 million shuffling papers? Wing Chau is an investment advisor and bond manager whose role as a CDO manager was depicted in The Big Short. Wing Chau wasn’t happy with the way he came across in the book and movie. Learn why his position as a “CDO manager” was, and is, controversial and how he contributed to the 2008 financial crisis.
How were the credit rating agencies involved in the financial crisis of 2007-2008? Why did they fail so miserably in their role rating subprime? We’ll cover how credit rating agencies contributed to the financial crisis and why their failures were the result of both incompetence and greed.
The movie The Big Short, starring Christian Bale, Steve Carell, Ryan Gosling, and Brad Pitt, among others, is based on the 2010 book The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine by Michael Lewis. Do you know the real story behind the movie? The Big Short explores the origins of and fallout from the 2007-2008 financial crisis through the eyes of a handful of eccentric and oddball investors who saw that the U.S. housing market—and, by extension, the entire financial system—was built on a foundation of sand.
What is the planning fallacy? How can I avoid it? And what are some examples of the planning fallacy? The planning fallacy is the phenomenon of habitually underestimating the amount of time and resources required to finish a project. When estimating for a project, you tend to give “best-case scenario,” which rarely happens. We’ll look at a planning fallacy example that fleshes out the above definition, and cover how the planning fallacy works and how to avoid it.
What is a CDO, or collateralized debt obligation? Why are CDOs so confusing, even for people in the financial world, and how did they contribute to the 2008 financial crisis? A CDO (collateralized debt obligation) is a financial instrument that bundles together low-quality bonds into a new product. Learn why CDOs were developed and how they contributed to the 2008 financial crisis.