Amanda Penn, Author at Shortform Books

Origins of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Black Swan Obsession

Who is Nassim Nicholas Taleb? How did he develop his popular “black swan” theory? The Black Swan is the second book in former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s five-volume series on uncertainty. This book analyzes so-called “Black Swans”—extremely unpredictable events that have massive impacts on human society. We’ll explore how Nassim Nicholas Taleb became obsessed with probability (or, more accurately, improbability) and how he developed his theory of black swans.

Weak Ties: Why You Need Them, Especially in Business

We don’t think of weak ties as good things–aren’t lasting friendships and deep connections what matter? We’ll cover why weak ties are important, especially in business and marketing. Learn why you should have a “connector,” someone with many weak ties, on your team.

Milgram’s Small-World Experiment: Connected by 6 Degrees

What was Milgram’s “small-world experiment”? How did it research the way people are connected with one another? What does it say about our world? The small-world experiment was a study in the 1960s by psychologist Stanely Milgram. During the experiment, he sent chain letters and counted how many letters were sent before they reached their final destination. We’ll cover Milgram’s small-world experiment and look at how it spawned the six degrees of separation theory.

Grey Swans Explained: Why Prepare for Unlikely Events?

What’s a grey swan? How does it serve as a metaphor for events that aren’t predictable, exactly, but imaginable? A grey swan (alternately, gray swan) is a term for events that can’t be predicted but can be imagined. It can also refer to an event that’s unlikely but possible. The term was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in the book Black Swan. We’ll cover what a grey swan is, how it fits in with black and white swans, and how to turn black swans grey.

Dealing With Uncertainty: 5 Successful Strategies

Accurate predictions are hard to make. The world is full of uncertainty. How do you make plans when you can’t know the future? How do you deal with uncertainty? We’ll cover the difficulties with making accurate predictions and how to deal with uncertainty in an unpredictable world.

3 Crucial Accidental Discoveries in Science

The Formless Substance: A Limitless Source of Wealth

What are some of the greatest accidental discoveries in science that changed the world? How did they happen? We’ll cover some of the most life-changing accidental discoveries, from penicillin to the cosmic microwave background, and discuss why the most profound discoveries are often the ones that are inadvertent.

Bad Predictions: The 12 Reasons You’re Making Them

Why do you make bad predictions? Is there any way to make better predictions? According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Black Swan, some of the most world-altering events are unpredictable. Although many day-to-day events can be predicted, humans are bad at making accurate predictions about many major events. We’ll look at 12 fallacies and cognitive biases that encourage your bad predictions.

“Six Degrees of Separation” Theory: How We’re All Connected

What is the “six degrees of separation” theory? What does it say about how we’re connected? What is a 6 degrees of separation example? The six degrees of separation theory is the idea that every person in the world is connected to every other person in the world by a chain of family members, friends, or acquaintances that number no more than 5 people. The idea was popularized by the game “Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon.” We’ll cover the origins of the “six degrees of separation” theory, look at a 6-degrees-of-separation example, and see how the theory is connected to

Silent Evidence: 4 Surprising Ways You’re Deaf to Reality

What is silent evidence? How does ignoring it give us an inaccurate picture of the world? Silent evidence is the “flipside” to any story we’re told. It’s the tendency to forget that there are details of a situation that we don’t have access to. We’ll cover how the distortion of silent evidence leads to cognitive biases and why these distortions leave us surprised by and unprepared for the world’s randomness.

Butterfly Effect Theory Explained: Impact of Small Acts

What is the butterfly effect theory? How is it related to the idea of nonlinearities? How does it explain why we make bad predictions? The butterfly effect theory is the idea that a small change in a nonlinear system can have huge effects in the larger system. This idea was proposed by an MIT meteorologist, who discovered that an infinitesimal change in input parameters can drastically change weather models. We’ll cover what the butterfly effect theory is and how small changes can have large effects.