Amanda Penn, Author at Shortform Books

Illusion of Understanding: You’re Not as Smart as You Think

What is the illusion of understanding? Why do we fall for it, and what can we do about it? The illusion of understanding is the cognitive bias of thinking we have a grasp of what’s going on in the world when, in fact, the world is far more complex than we know. The idea of the illusion of understanding was popularized by Daniel Kahneman and Nassim Nicholas Taleb. We’ll cover examples of the illusion of understanding and how it impacts our lives and how we make predictions.

Power-Law Distribution: How It Better Models the World

What is a power-law distribution? How is it useful in describing and predicting events in the real world, which is full of uncertainty? Power-law distribution is a functional relationship between two quantities in which the relationship remains constant no matter the initial size of the quantities. This relationship is useful in describing events and phenomena that can’t be graphed on a bell curve. We’ll cover the basics of power-law distribution and look at how it works to accurately describe the world and account for otherwise unpredictable events.

Ludic Fallacy: Do You Treat Life Like a Blackjack Game?

What is the ludic fallacy? How does the tendency to “tunnel” into what we know lead us into making cognitive errors? The ludic fallacy is the tendency to treat uncertainty in real life like uncertainty in games of chance. The problem with this approach is that, unlike games of chance, real life has no rules. We’ll cover how the ludic fallacy shapes our predictions and why thinking of uncertainty like a game of blackjack is unproductive.

Preferential Attachment: Why The Rich Get Richer

What is preferential attachment? Who benefits from preferential attachment? Who loses? Preferential attachment is the innate human tendency to flock to past successes, regardless of whether those successes are the product of merit or chance. Preferential attachment is a form of cumulative advantage. We’ll cover examples of preferential attachment, look at how it increases inequality in society, and discover when it’s wrong.

Cultural Diffusion: Meaning + Examples of How Ideas Spread

What does “diffusion” mean in sociology? What is the cultural diffusion meaning? What is a cultural diffusion example? Cultural diffusion is a term in sociology for the way a contagious idea or product spreads among people who adopt it at different phases. It involves phases in which innovators, early adopters, the early majority, the late majority, and, finally, the laggards adopt an idea or product. We’ll look at a cultural diffusion example to see how the idea of diffusion works in sociology and look at the factors that come into play at each stage of the diffusion model.

Barbell Strategy: The Safest Way for Maximum Profits

What is the barbell strategy? What is a barbell investing approach? How can you adopt the barbell strategy to mitigate risk in investing and in life? The “barbell strategy” is an approach designed to minimize the pain of a negative event while, potentially, reaping the benefits of a positive event. The barbell strategy is commonly used in investing, but it’s also applicable to life more generally. We’ll cover the nature of the barbell strategy and other strategies for mitigating risks.

What Is a Fractal? How They Work in the Real World

What is a fractal? How are fractals useful in representing and predicting relatively unpredictable events? A fractal is a geometric pattern that repeats at different scales. Fractals, unlike pure geometric shapes like triangles or circles, are seen quite frequently in nature. We’ll cover what a fractal is and how it can help us make predictions in a world full of uncertainty.

News Bias: How Little Cues Sway Voters and Elections

What is a good media bias example? How do nonverbal cues reveal news bias on television? We’ll cover one news bias example in which newscasters’ nonverbal signals revealed how they really felt about the candidates during the 1984 presidential campaign. We’ll also look at how these unconscious facial expressions swayed viewer votes.

Social Epidemic: How to Make Your Ideas Spread Like Viruses

What is a social epidemic? How does it start? Can social epidemics be useful? A social epidemic is the spread of ideas, messages, behaviors, and products through a population in the same way that viruses spread. The idea was popularized in the book The Tipping Point, by Malcolm Gladwell. We’ll cover the requirements of social epidemics and how to create social epidemics to spread your ideas and sell your products.

Epistemic Arrogance: If You’re an “Expert,” You’re Guilty

What is epistemic arrogance? Who’s guilty of epistemic arrogance, and how does thinking we know what we actually don’t get us into trouble? Epistemic arrogance is the tendency to overestimate our ability to predict when we’re overconfident in our knowledge. We’re all guilty of epistemic arrogance, but it hits “experts” the hardest. We’ll cover how epistemic arrogance leads to bad predictions and why more information isn’t always better.